Arthur
@Arthur_0x
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Founder & CIO @DeFianceCapital , a public market focused crypto investment firm. Skeptical Optimist. Nuance is the most underrated thing in crypto.
Singapore
Joined April 2013
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Pinned Tweet
Just published our latest writing on Liquid Venture Investing in Crypto, a thread to follow.
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Not a conspiracy theorist but even I cant dismiss the theory that SBF is sent by the FED to destroy our industry.
How else would you explain his rapid rise to legitimacy, political clouts that exceed even OGs like Brian Armstrong while running an offshore deriv exchange?
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That's it, I am calling the Omicron variant a FUD here.
Enough of lock-downs without convincing evidence that the cost-benefits is worth it.
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Crypto is essentially a crash course on economics, finance, governance delivered via adrenaline pumping manner.
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This is the punishment for pushing $DOGE to top 10 and $40b market cap isn't it?
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Yield farming on Polygon is probably the most well kept secret among the hardworking DeFi farmers 👀
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Throughout my 5 years of crypto investing experience, this is the move that caught most pros and whales offside the most.
Was not expecting a 60% drop from the peak without a single 20% bounce. Massive supply/demand driven sell-off without significant liquidation cascade.
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Living the meme and the dream.
Would consider it collectible as well before they stop producing naturally aspirated engine car entirely.
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Found out the likely root cause for the exploit, it's a targeted social engineering attack. Received a spear-phishing email that really seems to be sent by one of our portco with content that seems like general industry-relevant content.
They are likely targeting all crypto peep
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The only thing I can say to the hacker is: you mess with the wrong person.
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Imagine being the largest and most successful NFT marketplace yet choosing to go for IPO instead of issuing token.
NGMI.
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$ADA reaching top 3 is a perfect proof of gullible normie coming back.
When I just entered crypto and turned off by Ethereum lack of scaling progress I also think Cardano is a viable alternative.
Guees what 3.5 years later they still haven't implement smart contracts....
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Initially wrote the content below only for our portcos and partners but after some thoughts I think there are benefit to open-sourcing this.
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Excited to share my investment thesis and philosophy on DeFi on
@DefiantNews
, where I talk about why DeFi will eat traditional finance and how combining fundamentals research and active participation is one of the best ways to generate alpha in crypto.
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Uber owns no cars.
Airbnb owns no hotels.
Web 3 have more VCs than users.
This is the new economy.
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Just spent 1 hour today trying to transfer less than $1m from 4 different banks to settle one single invoice.
At this point, I have zero doubt that DeFi will eat traditional finance over a 10 years horizon.
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Not a single retail I know in last 6 month joined the crypto space because of Bitcoin.
Most skipped BTC and go for ETH directly to participate in NFT.
Make of it what you will.
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At this level, most DeFi blue-chips have corrected ~50% from 4 days ago.
Just ask yourself, did their fundamentals deteriorated by more than 50% in 4 days? If not, what's the best action here?
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Well not sure what happened, need to take time to figure it out. Didn't expect this to happen to me as well.
Guess no more hot wallet usage then.
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This is a market where 70 IQ and below outperform everyone else.
Truly ape market.
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None of the top DeFi team are even thinking about building on Cardano.
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Next 12 months we have:
Mt Gox BTC release + US Govt 210K+ BTC holdings potentially go on sale + Saylor potential liquidation due to coin margin loans.
It's not looking good son.
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It's a pretty magical moment to see such a major upgrade go through smoothly on a $300b settlement layer in a decentralized manner.
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Here's my list of top 10 crypto by the end of 2021 excluding stablecoins:
1. BTC
2. ETH
3. DOT
4. LINK
5. BNB
6. UNI
7. AAVE
8. SNX
9. YFI
10. FTX
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I think we see capital rotation to Eth DeFi soon with ETH breaking $3k and recapturing the market attention again.
Time for blue chips season again.
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This is how I imagine myself look like in the Web 3 metaverse.
@AzukiZen
have the best artwork and details among all the PFP NFTs I've come across
#NewProfilePic
#Azuki
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Uniswap proposal to create a fee mechanism that rewards UNI token holders that have delegated and staked their tokens goes live.
$UNI up 45% since this was posted. Might be the catalyst that lead DeFi applications to be re-rated across the board.
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14 July 2023 marks the official end of 2022-2023 bear market imo.
1. Worst of macro tightening is over, CPI falling and real interest rate is positive now. More likely we see rates cut next year than not.
2. Continued institutional acceptance of crypto as an asset class
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Bank of America is intrigued by decentralized finance, which it says is “potentially more disruptive than Bitcoin.”
Looks like they are starting to get it.
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If the market can recover from the crazy drop of March 20 that broke the market structure and liquidity, I am sure it can recover from this weak-ass China ban Bitcoin fud.
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Close to the bottom I guess if even industry insider is feeling this.
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Some personal thoughts/reflection on the recent event.
1/ As an early DeFi participant& advocate, I always believe that a decentralized money and network NEED a decentralized financial stack to support it.
Else we will just be moving crypto between centralized custodian.
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If you guys keep buying worthless layer 1 tokens with no unique value proposition, no users, no developers, no applications aka ghost chain.
This supercycle thing might not happen.
Allocate your money wisely guys.
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Solana flip Ethereum in retail mindshare according to CoinGecko
Top 20 Most Popular Blockchain Ecosystems on CoinGecko
1. Solana
2. Ethereum
3. BNB Smart Chain
4. Cosmos
5. Avalanche
6. Arbitrum
7. Base
8. Sei
9. Sui
10. Polygon
11. TON
12. zkSync
13. Cardano
14. Polkadot
15. Metis
16. Fantom
17. Injective
18. PulseChain
19. Aptos
20. Hedera
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Do not listen to what they say, look at what they do.
Since 80% of crypto activities in China go through 2 platforms, you can tell the seriousness of by whether this 2 firms are still operating as usual or not.
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Used to admire and think Elon Musk a lot as a great entrepreneur but I lost a fair amount of respect recently for the constant dogecoin shillings where he can highlight the tangible progress being made in the space.
It's just few dozen hours of research for him to be up to speed
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ETH is probably the best 6 to 12m long among large cap assets now when BlackRock applies for spot ETH ETF 6 to 12m down the road. Ethereum's ESG friendliness and native staking yield will be appealing to institutional investors should BTC spot ETF turn out to be a success.
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This goes largely unnoticed but many of the best performing coins this year have their team largely based in Singapore such as Jupiter, Altlayer, Pendle and Aevo.
There is also an incredible density of sophisticated liquid crypto investors in Singapore now.
🇸🇬Once again
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Been asked why is $SUSHI still going up.
Well could it be the market is waking up to the fact that among all DeFi protocols,
@SushiSwap
returns the most value to its token holders directly via staking, roughly at $55m/p.a. and growing?
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A data-focused look on Ether reveals that $ETH's role within the Ethereum ecosystem is becoming more significant over time and currently being used as a non-speculative asset more than ever.
A mini-thread
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If you bought my stolen NFT (mainly Azuki and CloneX), appreciate if you can hold it first. I will contact you all when I get my stuff sorted.
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How about making it mandatory to pass an economics & finance 101 test before anyone is allowed to make any financial decisions.
Make it a driving license kind and regular refresher course is required to continue making financial decisions.
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One of the biggest catalysts for a full-blown altcoin re-rating could literally drop any day now.
Weeks not months I think.
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I'm gonna get chastised for saying this but the level of organic developers interest in
@solana
now is absolutely on 🔥now even for a non-dev like me.
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Market rotating capital from non-productive asset to productive asset is simply the natural evolution.
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Elon Musk is the person that you definitely don't want to bet against.
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We are not done and is actually actively working to resolve the situation.
My and our team behaviour and action is consistent and this will not change.
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Think we have the recipes ready for another round of DeFi Summer.
Looking forward to only sleeping 5 hours/day again soon.
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Millennials are now the world’s most populous generation, eclipsing that of Gen X and Baby Boomers. They are also entering their prime earning and spending years.
That's the crypto supercycle thesis basically.
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Empirically speaking, market action yesterday happens on yearly basis in crypto, witnessed it since 2017 so it's not even a 3 sigma event.
This means that if you always trade on 4x leverage and above, it's just a matter of time you blow your account.
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Who would have expected $AAVE to hit its all-time high on such a bloody day?
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Unpopular opinion:
We have seen a huge dispersion of returns this cycle in crypto. Few cryptos have outperformed BTC since Oct 23 cycle low and on a YTD basis. Many market participants have referred to the altcoins market now as a "PVP" market.
Snapshot of the top 20 crypto
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What Solana ecosystem is experiencing now is extremely similar to what Ethereum went through during the 2017 ICO bubble.
There is massive demand for SOL to speculate on new asset issuance on Solana
Study Ethereum ICO bubble during 2017/2018
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Wrapped DOGE is a big market for DeFi community to capture.
Imagine telling normies they can earn yield on $DOGE in DeFi as well.
Easy billion dollar market opportunity.
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Those people thay are pumping XRP deserve to lose all their money.
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If you are bullish here, I genuinely want to know where you see the next $50b to $100b of demand is coming from to push $BTC above ath again.
Assume one extra dollar into the system increases the market cap by 5x - 10x.
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Ok it's a private key/seed phrase compromise since this little shit is still transferring some token out
0xe47E8cD58c8E95F765e642d7dCB898f622ceFA83
Please blacklist this address
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Facebook is literally unusable now, full of cancerous ads and dominated by business and media updates.
I think the time is riped for a new social network. This might be the next big Web 3 theme.
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I already know where our next 1000x is gonna come from after $AXS
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Firmly believe most of the 100x opportunities going forward will be found onchain that have no VC investment and no CEX listing.
Meanwhile, most VC coins will continue to be down only with their blatant low float high FDV tokenomics and selling by airdrop farmers.
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Passing on 3 opportunities to build a major $SOL position although bullish are among the most middle IQ moment of my life 🥲
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Objectively speaking, the most enduring crypto investment thesis has to be the fat protocol thesis published 5 years ago.
It's a millionaire to billionaire trade by putting 6 figs in each of all the hyped layer 1 back then and hold it until now.
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This account will be in full shitposting mode tomorrow in celebration of $ETH going to Valhalla
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@itsALLrisky
Ideally, Doge speeds up block time 10X, increases block size 10X & drops fee 100X. Then it wins hands down.
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“the bottom 80% of men (in terms of attractiveness) are competing for the bottom 22% of women and the top 78% of women are competing for the top 20% of men.”
This is the biggest societal trend nobody is talking about.
I wonder how future will unfold
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State of crypto venture market now.
"I dont care about the valuation as long we can 10x on that investment."
Citing one top project as example that he thinks will hit $80b valuation eventually.
VCs having no discipline on valuation is one of my biggest top signals.
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Just spend $3 claiming rewards on BSC with 5 gwei, the gas fee is really not as low as I thought?
That's basically Ethereum's fee pre DeFi summer.
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Can never get tired seeing CT switched from bull to bear and flip to bull again within 72 hours
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Think it's very likely we see ETH/BTC going to 0.1 by end of the year after the longest consolidation period ever.
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Have been bullish on the Cosmos ecosystem after coming back from Cosmosverse in Istanbul and thinking hard about the best way to get exposure to it. After a deep dive, we found
@osmosiszone
to be one of the most exciting opportunities available here.
A thread 🧵
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BSC come like a barbarian at the gate to Ethereum and rightfully so.
Because even millionaires can't keep paying $20 for one simple ERC-20 transfer.
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Was pretty careful and stuck with only using hardware wallet on PC until I start trading NFT more regularly.
Hot wallet on mobile phone is indeed not safe enough
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2023 was the year of rebuilding for me and DeFiance Capital.
2022 was a terrible year filled with extreme lows for my professional journey and took some of my soul away. I went from managing one of the most successful crypto funds in Asia to being ensnared in an extremely
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$ETH will go to $500 easily simple because so many yield farm requires ETH right now.
ETH is finally money again.
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$MATIC is a god coin that basically Atlas most of the DeFi yield farm now.
Long live $MATIC
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Bluechip NFTs are actually a better SoV than most crypto now.
It has become veblen goods now like watches, vintage wine, whisky, fine arts and the trend is only getting started.
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$ETH challenging ATH again.
Start of repricing season for the King.
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Ethereum, the global settlement layer.
Visa now settles payments in USDC stablecoin on Ethereum blockchain (via
@Yogita_Khatri5
)
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1/ Based on our research and conversation with leading cyber security experts, we believe BlueNorOff are running an organized campaign to target all the prominent organizations in the crypto space.
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