Austerity Sucks
@austerity_sucks
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I decided to make an evil 👿 2022 crypto predictions list
I don't necessarily think these things will happen, it's basically doom porn of events, very unlikely. Feel free to add other similar predictions
A bit twisted but I like to feel out the extremes as a thought exercise 🧵
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Any FTX employees willing to change my accounts country of residence to Bahamas to facilitate withdrawal I am offering $1 million and unlimited legal fees
DM me (serious inquiries only)
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i would bet 1 BTC that literally nobody's crypto tax is filed correctly
its just not possible to accurately track cost basis, locked tokens, fx conversions, crypto derivatives, yield farming, rebasements, etc.
(im blocking any crypto tax software companies trolling this thread)
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I am hereby boycotting all KYC'd DeFi protocols.
This is a non-starter for me. I will not give any liquidity, or any volume, to such a monstrosity.
Please consider joining me in this pledge
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Tether is not UST
I will go down with this ship if wrong, buying 0.96
The USDT are backed, redemptions open. Don't be dumb
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merry christmas to everyone who went full time in crypto at a time where it was considered actual career suicide
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anyone have a good retort for "Solana spelled backwards is Anal OS"?
getting rekt in a debate atm
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Bears are basically domestic terrorists when you think about it
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This may surprise some but in the time I've held my SOL (almost 1.5 years) I've experienced at least six 50+% drawdowns
Love seeing "day traders" tell me how dumb I am for holding SOL still on this yet another nearly 50% drawdown
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It's time for
@FTX_Official
to list $SPELL (and $ICE) -- theres too much action going on here to ignore
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Iran successfully made first import ($10M worth) using crypto to settle and bypass US sanctions
این هفته، اولین ثبت سفارش رسمی واردات با #رمز_ارز به ارزشی معادل ۱۰ میلیون دلار با موفقیت صورت پذیرفت. تا پایان شهریور ماه، استفاده از رمز ارزها و قراردادهای هوشمند به صورت گسترده در تجارت خارجی با کشورهای هدف عمومیت خواهد یافت.
#فصل_جدید_تجارت_خارجی
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ppl need to respect bitcoin
coins going after each other is not just about bad vibes but it aims for taking money from within the crypto ecosystem to reallocate to your coin
if everyone focuses on ecosystem value as whole instead, it's bringing new money into the entire space
Gm
Have some ground rules to properly participate in and summon the new bull mkt of 2022
1) no eth flipping btc talk
2) no sol flipping eth talk
3) no "my coin rules, your coin sucks" talk
4) no "my pfp better than your pfp talk"
good vibes only
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Disgusted w/ fake Effectrive Altruist FTX ppl
Over past 48hr, bc ppl relied on FTX as bank (w card etc) ive had to help:
- pay for ticket for FTX employee to leave bahamas
- cover airbnb bill for someone until paycheck end of month
- pay for some1 mental hospital admission
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16. An alternative layer 1 chain will be officially outed as a CIA project (maybe Algorand)
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8. The crypto shadow banking industry (BlockFi, Celsius, etc.) faces catastrophic, multi-billion dollar losses from mismanagement of funds, leading to strict state crackdown, effectively ending the practice by centralised parties
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10. A high profile crypto hedge fund (11+ fig AUM) will be revealed to be running a Madoff / Stanford style ponzi scheme leading to catastrophic loss of funds for investors
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Another interesting
#bitcoin
futures history story is just how the BitMEX perpetual contract came to be.
It was not something that happened overnight, in fact it was months of trial and error from the BitMEX team until they realised how easy it was 1/n ....
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I dont delete tweets so im not going to delete this even as ppl laugh and troll and mock me
Yes, I was wrong, the tweet stays up.
imagine thinking Alameda the next 3AC
a side effect of the increased counterparty dd processes is that a lot of private companies' documents are being sent around, held insecurely on random cloud shit, with lots of plebs at other companies accessing them
guessing that was leak
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i wonder if
@danielesesta
considers the communities he's built around $SPELL $MIM $ICE $TIME to be "small investors who give nothing in return"
somehow he's managed to build without being blessed by the holy cabal of presale VC's
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can someone explain me what the brand is ?
she posts selfies, and cringe guys worship her
what is this brand? im open-minded, just need to understand
Yes we are!! Proud member of team
@Irenezhao_
I love the hustle. This young woman has created her own brand in less than a year. And NFT’s allows her to pull her community together.
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I want to EMPHASIZE
DO NOT KILL YOURSELF OVER FTX
If you need to go to hospital, or just need some buffer to get time to think and regroup, or just want to talk -- DM me, there are options! $FTT
#FTX
@SBF_FTX
@carolinecapital
i have limited funds still available to help people in REALLY bad situations (my closest friends are already covered)
if you are in truly dire situation and need a lifeline -- suicide, family problems, whatever. i still can help some
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lol cumberland like "hey guys, maybe USDT or USDC is insolvent, just saying"
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4. US federal authorities force USDC and USDT to only be transferrable between KYC'd addresses, crippling DeFi as we know it
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me, after spending €1,500 on ETH tx fees today:
"what, €10 a month for HBO Max just to watch Matrix Resurrections? better borrow someone else's login info"
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Hindsight reflection on the "top" signals:
- Coinbase IPO (most obv)
- Kimchi premium
- CME Eth futures (off by few months)
Thing that prevented me most from confidentally fully hedging:
- Lack of pointiness in fkn top
Thing that I did well:
- Sold some (30%?) into strength
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Hey
@SBF_FTX
i know youre still reading twitter
CZ was never going to really bail you out.
And Justin is also gonna be a deadend
Just apply haircuts and continue operating the business. Its the only way forward.
Dont do bankruptcy, you will ruin so many people in this space
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your risk-off allocation is heavy in stables
my risk-off allocation is heavy in bitcoin
we are built differently
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i have limited funds still available to help people in REALLY bad situations (my closest friends are already covered)
if you are in truly dire situation and need a lifeline -- suicide, family problems, whatever. i still can help some
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@GiganticRebirth
this is probably one of the most understated bearish narratives going in to 2022 -- the signs of regulatory crackdown _globally_ are all in front of our face, but nobody seems concerned
imo it will come to be the dominant response of "why" when the charts start looking real shit
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1. Ledger wallet seed generation found not to be truly random, allowing hackers to steal funds from hardware wallet users worldwide who did not generate their seed phrase separately
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i always cringe when crypto ppl celebrate validation from traditional institutions (visa, sothebys, etc) as if they "finally made it"
so many in the community are just insecure and dying for acceptance in mainstream, instead of just paving our own path
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2. Coinbase, Binance or FTX crypto wallet / custody infrastructure will be compromised, leading to billions in losses that just barely get covered
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Ethereum is one big advertisement for Solana.
Every transaction, every new user.
I just paid 200$ USD for $ETH transaction, this is not the future of France.
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it had to be more than this that caused cz to go nuclear
had to be some much worse, behind-the-scenes shit that he caught wind of
cant figure out otherwise what makes sense...i cant imagine cz is that petty
Lmfao, the tweet that potentially pushed the feud over the edge has been deleted.
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7. CZ will be arrested and charged for money laundering, sanctions violations, etc. Binance will continue to operate but under very different circumstances
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Note: doesnt mean protocols which offer the OPTION for KYC'd pools should be boycotted.
KYC'd pools / protocols _only_ offering KYC'd options, are to be marginalised as much as possible.
DeFi will only thrive when totally:
- open source
- permissionless
- censorship resistant
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It's sad to see FTX/Alameda repeat the same mistakes as Bitfinex/Tether re PR strategy reacting to FUD
Keeping head down doesnt work
What does work:
- transparency above and beyond what is legally necessary
- detailed counters to FUD narratives
- proactive media clarifications
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24. A "trustless" cross-chain bridge will be compromised, leading to the loss of billions of dollars of funds and massive blow to the multi-chain interoperability thesis
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i dont understand people who track their net worth every day and precisely like a psycho
i literally have no clue what im worth, dont care. can't even guess within like 20% +/-
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im confident wikipedia could launch a shitcoin w 10 fig FDV to be funded in perpetuity without any need for donations
that's about what i think web3 can do for wikipedia
I'm saddened every time I see this banner begging users to donate money to keep the lights on.
Web3 can solve this problem.
I'm confident crypto developers can align incentives and build a sustainable model for
@Wikipedia
.
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lol funny experiment:
0 ftx employees reaching out (good on them)
bunch of ppl wanting to do the same (sad, desperate)
to those that dont get it: if anyone were to do this, those funds would be clawed back when the inevitable bankruptcy occurs
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this guy is on the fast train to solana and doesnt seem to realise it yet. at some point it will click for him that his view of what he wants is not dogecoin but something that has very carefully made the tradeoffs for what he wants on layer1
@TeslaGong
@PPathole
@MattWallace888
It won’t need to reach visa speed, as regulated exchanges will act as de facto second layer.
But the perfect should not be the enemy of the good – it is still good to increase base layer transaction speed & lower base layer transaction cost.
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The next Hitler will be a failed NFT artist who left all his remaining funds on FTX
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does an "OG" really count as an "OG" if they disappeared from crypto for years in between?
IMO, big no
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protip:
if a girl u meet lets you have sex w/her w/o a condom, you can assume she's done this with many guys, so exercise caution
similarly, if a crypto institution offers you unsecured credit, you can assume they've done it w/others. be cautious w/any collateral you have there
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next person who tells me bear markets are great for building is getting punched in the face
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i will always respect the king
no matter how much time, money, and energy i spend outside of bitcoin at times
i will always want more bitcoin, and that's always been the end game
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14. Justin Sun will be disappeared by the CCP (Jack Ma style) for engaging in deceptive marketing and pyramid schemes against the interest of the Chinese state
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20. The Federal Reserve will engage in surprise shock rate hikes as inflation data forces Powell's hands -- together with US fed govt spending cuts, will cause a massive repricing of asset markets (including crypto)
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The Deribit news should naturally make everyone ask:
Just how much negative equity accounts from unsecured debt (with assets wiped out) are crypto exchanges sitting on to clients like 3AC?
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6. SEC will finally come out swinging HARD against pseudo equity tokens, leading to a mass cuckening of DeFi as founders who already cashed out millions dont have the will to fight
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coindesk definitely deserves props for this -- it was real, impactful news.
@0x_tracy
willing to publish something that TheBlock would never dare
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In close of last cycle ETH ran from $1,200 to $80, a -93% drop
So far in this cycle ETH has gone from $4,900 to $1,500, a -70% drop
In 2017 ETH ran to $420 and then fell ~70% to $130. Everyone said it was over, going to 0, etc. and then it ran to $1420.
In 2021 ETH ran to $4900 and then fell ~70% to $1500. Everyone said it was over, going to 0, etc. and then it...
We'll find out!
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at this point i barely own any ETH too
i never bought the idea of Solana being a "ferrari" and ETH being a Toyota (think
@mattysino
used to/might still say this)
simple philiosophy:
- go where the devs go
- go where the users go
it doesnt have to be more complicated than that
Yes I have abandoned Ethereum despite supporting it in the past.
Yes Ethereum has abandoned its users despite supporting them in the past.
The idea of sitting around jerking off watching the burn and concocting purity tests, while zero newcomers can afford the chain, is gross.
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22. The on-chain snitching industry (Chainalysis etc) will greatly expand partnerships with global tax authorities and give them a false sense of confidence around what people owe -- leading to many crypto traders going into bankruptcy over false figures of taxes owed
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such a power move to just top up the lost ETH and keep chugging along
strong believer that Wormhole and Jump's overall contribution in the space is super valuable and that everyone will bounce back stronger
The team is working on a detailed incident report and will share it asap
18:26 UTC - contract was exploited for 120k ETH
00:33 UTC - vulnerability was patched
13:08 UTC - ETH contract has been filled and all wETH are backed 1:1
13:29 UTC - the Portal (token bridge) is back up
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crypto is still currently worth something like $1.1 Trillion
i think the fair value of the sum of the projects in overall ecosystem is more like $1-5 billion assuming the communities do nothing to protect permissionless access / effectively resist state censorship
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21. Overhang of VC unlockings in 2022 will create a nasty market for retail trying to fight the cascade of selling, as macro conditions cause retail to just run out of money
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dunno who needs to hear this but if all you're doing on Solana is:
- running a Serum UI (and calling it your DEX)
- doing influencer / big wallet airdrops
- high emission liquidity mining
- spending 90% of time hyping price / "marketing"
you're not a builder, you're a grifter
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15. Yield in crypto will effectively disappear -- futures curve will remain in backwardation for a prolonged period of time (6+ months), as depressed market conditions fall into a vicious cycle
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it's really astonishing how much money i've lost this year lol
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vitalik is an absolute gem
one of the most thoughtful, open players in the space, always lays out arguments logically and is willing to check his priors
truly a good actor
Happy new year!
Today, a mini-tweetstorm of some of the things I've said and written over the past decade, and what I think about those subjects today.
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9. We will witness flat out address/account censorship on base layer of an alternative layer 1 SoLunAvax or other (i.e., not ethereum) -- a reaction to strong state pressure
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@stablekwon
@clayop
@IamNomad
do you think the "attack" propaganda term is useful? the system was unstable and reached an equilibrium where the peg was no longer sustainable and LUNA was crushed. would not call this an "attack"
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