Avi
@AviFelman
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@1000xPod // @interndao // ex-GoldenTree & BlockTower. Markets, history, politics & my adventures
Draynor Village
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It's amazing how every BTC bottom is harder to buy than the last:
2018: Everything is vaporware, Bitcoin useless experiment, no real adoption
2020: Global sell-off due to once in a hundred years pandemic
2022: Multi-decade macro shift, stagflation, WW3 & famine on horizon
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Bitcoin is trading as though it's an alternative banking system or something crazy like that
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We literally get a 2008 every 6 months, there is no second best industry
Do you feel alive yet?
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USDC has 11.4b split between 7 banks. Two were SVB and SI. BNY Mellon likely holds the majority of assets (it's safest, if they wanted yield they'd be in treasuries). If 20% is in SVB and haircut on SVB is 92% (aggressive) then backing of USDC is cut by 182m, which is easily
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Over the next 6-18 months we are setting up a monster rally for $BTC.
World will wake up to the reality that $BTC is the most useful bearer asset in existence and that credit assets are dangerous.
Bank failures one year before halving. Could not have written a better script.
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Every time someone calls for the death of Bitcoin, we are reminded why it remains king after 13 long years. It’s the only asset backed by nothing that has stood the test of time.
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People are looking at crypto and NFTs and saying things like “lol wtf 90k for a rock jpeg, that’s insane, what a scam”
Yet ignore the fact ppl in crypto have 90k to spend on rock jpegs, maybe if you didn’t dismiss everything new you’d also be able to waste money on rocks
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A few thoughts on the events of today.
(1) The fallout will be long and unseen. There are likely further losses yet discovered, lending desks, etc.
(2) Faith in crypto will be shaken for some time. Many people had FTX as their sole entry into the space
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1/ Avalanche ($AVAX) is seeing a surge in interest and adoption that is reminiscent of the early days of BSC and MATIC.
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Market bottomed on the day Russia invaded, and the world adjusted to its new reality.
Market is clearly preparing itself for a nasty CPI print, and yet the world will adjust to the new reality.
Worst mistake you can make it to care on the day of the event
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2024: Aliens have landed and captured the United States, quantum computing breakthrough, Katy Perry paints her nails again
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Relax guys, this is the natural progression of the market. First, you lose everything. Then you never make it back, and get a job.
Why is everyone so worried?
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Last few days BTC is down ~1% with QQQ down ~4.4%. Insane relative strength, tells you how many people view sub 20k as an area of value.
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Tesla put 8% of their cash balance sheet into $BTC, Square put 2%, Microstrategy (the madmen) went all in.
Three is a trend!
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Bitcoin :: Gold
Ethereum :: Oil
Litecoin :: Silver
Cardano :: Nikola
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Max pain is everyone else experiences a massive recession but crypto goes up only
the seethe would be unimaginable
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Bought $1k of a memecoin a while ago and forgot about it, just checked up on it as it's trending now worth ~$150k. Absolute nonsense market
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144k seems like a nice number to stop at FWIW
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If you are looking for a bottom, one of the best signs is decoupling of sentiment and price.
With all the additional recent bad news and spreading panic, Bitcoin is still trading around the same price as it was a week ago.
Reminds me of October 2020 in many ways.
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Just so you know, when you tweet "Bitcoin is holding up well against equities" it reminds people to check equities, at which point they see how bad it looks and then they sell their BTC
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I genuinely think 3-4 concentrated hours a day of work is all you need for outsized gains in this market.
Those of you staying up to 3am what are you even doing?
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Both GBTC and ETHE bottomed at 10am today, moving higher despite BTC and ETH making new daily lows.
Discount reached ~50%, which represents a 100% return if the trusts return to par. Value buyers found their levels.
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This should be fairly obvious, but just in case it isn't: The entire market is based off the bid for Ethereum right now. The fact that BTC is still struggling with 24k and many alts haven't moved in the last week are indicative of this. This can be lucrative but not always good
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1/ You asked for the institutions to buy your bags, you get the institutions to buy your bags.
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Have been talking about the 29k - 69k range for a long time now. As have many others. To see people call for sub 20k near range low to me feels like a blessing.
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To go substantially lower, I would guess we need one of the following to break:
- Tether
- Coinbase
- Grayscale Trusts
- Binance
Everything else is small ball
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Since I got into crypto in 2016 I have been told that it’s is a scam loudly and confidently every year except for 2021.
The noise and schadenfreude you’re hearing is just that. Noise.
Crypto isn’t going away. We’re not going away. The most important thing to do is survive
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People in crypto talk to each other like a therapists dream
“Love you and appreciate you”
“Gm king”
“We’re gonna make it together brother”
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Market showing it's hand thanks to SEC Intern, ETHBTC strength on "approval"...frontrunning should begin soon
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In reality I think we are somewhere between Anger and Depression.
The end of the tunnel remains as bright and transformative as ever, don’t lose sight.
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I don't know what remilio is and at this point I'm too afraid to ask
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Liquidity has started to vanish which means that it's a lot cheaper to move price now vs 2 weeks ago. If you look closely there are some entities that are taking advantage of this via buying spot, running price into liquidations and then dumping. Previously too expensive to do..
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Play to Earn
Move to Earn
Learn to Earn
Work to Earn
Socialize to Earn
Financializing our existence is inevitable
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Somone (
@elonmusk
?) has been sitting 20-40 btc on the Coinbase bid and reloading since 26.8 -- same orderbook action as the Saylor bid.
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If you're gonna bet, bet big.
Bet with style. Take the liquidity. Be the candle you want to see.
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If you don't make at least $20m this cycle, you absolutely do not have enough money to retire. You're going to need to work weekends to achieve this.
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If Ethereum flips Bitcoin, is the Bitcoin narrative irreparably harmed?
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The orderbooks are a little insane right now.
On Coinbase, a $27M market sell will crash Bitcoin to 10k from 12.5k.
A $27M market buy will send Bitcoin to 10k from 19k.
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Quick market thoughts:
1. Staircase being respected
2. Sub 30k buyers capitulating, turning impatient
3. Exchange balances going lower
4. System Leverage Low
5. FUD being walked off
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Hacker moving all his ETH right now in 15k lots, seems likely he is getting ready to sell
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Sharing something very personal, on this Shabbat Evening.
As some of you know, I was born to a Ashkenazi Jewish father and and Indian Hindu mother.
My whole life, I was raised as a Jew. Practiced the religion, deeply identified with the culture and steeped myself in the
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By the nature of the markets, it always emotionally feels the most dangerous to buy when it is the technically the safest, and feels the safest when it is the most dangerous
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This will change soon.
ETH is a deeply hated right now, and yet post Bitcoin ETF the only thing people will have to speculate on is when the ETH ETF comes.
Not only that, imagine an ETF that gives you crypto exposure and potentially yield as well...
Not yet. But it is
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The structure of OHM is basically like Bitconnect went to Bain and asked them to help fix everything that’s wrong with a ponzi
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Simple
None of it works
But people want to invest in AI
Crypto is a good way for average person to feel invested in AI
VC funds can sound smart buying
You can feel smart buying
Can somebody please explain Crypto x AI to me? I don’t get it
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1/ Heading into the weekend we have flat funding, and Bitcoin hitting up against it's 46k ceiling. The coiling here makes me think there's good probability of a sized move coming soon.
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1/ At the beginning of this year I predicted we would range from 30k to 60k for all of 2022.
The market environment hasn’t changed much since January, driven mostly by equities. People are still holding onto the strategies that worked during the sugar high of 2022
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1/ It’s bittersweet to announce that this will be my last week at BlockTower. The last 2 years working & learning alongside
@AriDavidPaul
,
@MattGoetz
,
@MikeBucella
& the rest of the team have been some of the best, craziest & most interesting of my life. Thank you BT!
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All the outperformers today are outperforming for a reason:
- CVX
- FRAX
- SUSHI
- NEAR
- ROSE
- TRI
There's a lesson in here.. No longer just memecoins / shitcoins with idiosyncratic flows when BTC is weak. Reasoning matters a bit more.
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I mentioned on a podcast with
@WClementeIII
that one of the more powerful things to look at in the market are cross-exchange spreads.
This is because they tell you a lot about the type of market participant that is buying / selling at any given moment.
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1/ This market reminds me of 2020. Sitting here staring uncertainty in the short term but with confidence the medium to long term just improved tremendously.
Hard to imagine that oligarchs on the wrong end of the American gun feel comfortable with their investments right now.
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what if i said yes
Serious question.
Do you people genuinely expect the bull run to just end here?
$BTC
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> btc sells off 2000
“Bulls are fucked!?!!”
> btc bounces 2000
“Bears are fucked!!1!!”
Ppl incapable of thinking over even weeklong horizons, it’s day to day. Step back lads
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- 7b liquidations in 1 hr
- futures in backwardation
- low liquidity on a weekend
- massive arbs between exchanges
- spot bids stacked
And you’re panic selling? Gtfo
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Genuinely one of the best conversations I've ever had. Speaking with Don Wilson the founder of DRW & Cumberland -- one of the few people to effectively make the jump from pit trading to electronic trading and one of the best traders of our generation
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It's a pretty surreal moment for me to be able to log into the biggest Web2 app I use (insta) and have it...natively connect to MetaMask.
Having been in crypto since 2016 it really feels like a monumental event for us. The world is leaning into crypto.
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Imagine if BTC surpasses gold in mcap, mostly because gold goes down
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The lower Bitcoin goes the better, boomers get to buy cheap and will inevitably become orange pilled once they make 8.7% in a day and realize the use case of bitcoin
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Twitter tipping seems bullish. You can now force onboard people to Bitcoin at a scale previously unavailable by just paying them.
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Anti-Semitism is going mainstream on this platform and it’s normalizing some insane takes.
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The amount of Ethereum hatred that has erupted post the 1000x podcast honestly has me re-evaluating my bear thesis
ETH bulls, why is now the right moment to be max long?
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Bitcoin is trading like a beachball underwater right now, held down by adverse flows from equities but ready to rip the moment the chance is given
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The arrogance of politicos trying to regulate something they don’t even understand is something to behold
The arrogance of the crypto industry is really something to behold.
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Getting to the point where it's embarrassing to be a bull in polite company now
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There is actually a quite simple guide to using macro to trade crypto:
- If (fed meeting) & (crypto people are talking about it) == buy
- If (fed meeting) & (crypto people aren't talking about it) == sell
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If you found a slot machine that paid out 55% of the time you would play that until you were escorted out of the casino.
That is what microcaps named after animals feel like right now.
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It's interesting to me that Bitcoin has found a range after a large selloff, and altcoins are outperforming.
After prior sell-offs that marked the bottom, altcoins have bled out as Bitcoin chopped around.
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It’s poetry that both BTC and ETH defended round numbers last night.
20k // 1k
When the market doesn’t know what to do, is when we turn to our base instincts
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I think you need to be careful, Bitcoin could have a short term pullback to 12k before continuing on the bull run.
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Spidey sense is telling me that BTC prints a god candle in the next week as people wait for the next domino
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The Germans, now responsible for two world wars and a Bitcoin nuke
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Given the fragility of the global system, and the search for a new reserve currency underway, it makes sense this next rally will be rally of central bank capitulation into $btc
The fear of missing it will never ring more fiercely
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2022: Multi-decade macro shift, stagflation, WW3 & famine on horizon, FTX steals 10b of customer deposits, regulators about to decimate the industry, no one has cash to buy anymore because the market is down or they got rugged by CeFi
It's amazing how every BTC bottom is harder to buy than the last:
2018: Everything is vaporware, Bitcoin useless experiment, no real adoption
2020: Global sell-off due to once in a hundred years pandemic
2022: Multi-decade macro shift, stagflation, WW3 & famine on horizon
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Bitcoin is down 2.5% today, about 0.30% more than Nasdaq.
It’s supposed to be a safe haven asset.
It’s time to admit the experiment has failed.
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Watching crypto YouTube today. Heard a new phrase.
“Bear market resistant token”
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1/ Everyone has their eyes on two upcoming events [a] CPI print and [b] bad earnings season. We've got expectations for a 8.8% print, and more generally decent pessimism that earnings will be revised much lower.
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Narratives come as waves do. They swell and then break. If you find yourself thinking and reacting to an event a day before it happens it’s already breaking
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Monero is probably going to outperform soon. 7000 BTC buy pressure incoming 🙃
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