Kramerica Industries
@theloaner11
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Tech analyst (semis and software)… make your own pie
Joined April 2022
@eoghan It explains how our society has been deploying excess capital in ineffecient businesses. That’s what happens when you have 0% rates for long. Lose money (subsidized by new capital) to increase sales which are valued at higher valuation with each extra 1point of sales growth.
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@RyanDanz Strange that this thinking didn’t apply to your tweet. No offense, but it goes as someone complaining about people not booking his $3K per night luxury home in a semi-recessionary environment and asking airbnb to improve algos.
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@jbrowder1 @ValentinBurov So you were late, and didn’t have the chance to buy him coffee. But you still saw him using the corp credit card for the purchase? Dude…nothing annoys me more than people who come out with stories to sound cool on twitter.
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@RyanDanz I mean, you are catering to a small percentage of customers, why the algos should prioritize your listing over more reasonable ones?.
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@GuyDealership @charliebilello Net income is not an accurate presentation of business fundementals. Same argument can be made for Amazon in 2014. Focus on gross profit and potential operating leverage instead.
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@eoghan This begs the question whether low rates are worth it. If you throw capital into 100 businesses, maybe 5 of those will be transformative and bring positive impact to society. Question remains whether that will offset the 95 terrible businesses.
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@st_ratt @growing_daniel Well, that’s 100% false. Finance is broad, but as an ex-sellside analyst, 90% of my time was spent on studying businesses and understanding the supply chain of certain industries so that you know if company X says bla bla bla, it will affect company Y that way.
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@RobertMSterling They didnt even bother asking Harris at the debate a question about whether her propaganda has anything to fo with the assasination attempt. There are so many reasons not to like Trump, but the clear bias of the media and “incompetence” of the SS pushes me the other way.
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@markjenney My friends did this. They said among Europe, Portugal was #1, Crotia #2 followed by Italy.
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@samuhyu @PalmerLuckey Bro… u are talking about net profit margin… not gross margins (gross profit divided by item sale… without taking into acct OpEx)… yeah after OpEx margins are low singles… but net profit margin is irrelevant to this discussion.
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@samuhyu I think Kamala is stupid and proce fixing is a moron idea… but when u say margins are 1-2% so u cant fix the price, it implies the 1-2% are on products sold. Products sold make 20-30% margins, but after taking out store rent, opex, executive comp etc. it becomes 1-2%.
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@DionLimTV Anybody who doesn’t live in the city won’r understand how stressful and annoying it is to own a business here. And no one is helping. The city actually makes it worse. No wonder most people are leaving.
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@washingtonpost Without comparing that to prior presidents running for office, this metric is useless.
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@PandaValue @pmje73 Non taken. Buyside likes to brag about not needing the sellside. But they do… badly… sellside knows buyside consensus (most important for stock), callbacks with management, notes that go back 10 years. They are terrible in making stock calls because simply its not their job.
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@modestproposal1 One of the main reasons is that he never changes his view based on short-term data points. He filters out the noise and never follow the narrative. Instead, he knows what the narrative should be. Good businesses at reasonable valuation always makes $$.
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@elerianm Tweets like this are the reason why this govt keeps finding ways to increase its debt. If I were to lock my capital for 30 years Iat the treasury, I wouldnt accept less than 10%… even with low inflation. We all know its a matter of time before it defaults and $ loses its value.
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@eoghan Result? Money losing businesses in highly competitive market with low barriers to entry. Malinvestment is what will bring our Democracy to an end.
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@CramerTracker The market will not stop selling off until investors asses the extent of the recession. Yields falling along with stocks is an indication that we transformed from a valuation question to earnings downside. There’s no crisis, yet. There’s fear of having one.
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@Jimmy_NoChill It really doesnt matter. What matters is where are in the cycle (late stage. how late? Nobody has a clue)… and that opex cuts are meaningful. The market rarely makes sense. Its a psychology of funds traveling across a finite number of well managed companies.
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@st_ratt @growing_daniel And we don’t read 10Ks much. We attend expert calls, develop relationships in the industry, regularly check with management teams, and yes, read 10Ks and work on improving our models. They’re far from accurate, but nothing beats a model.
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@WholeMarsBlog I think u’ve been wrong for a very long time despite the improvement in FSD. I followed u for unbiased info, now u sound like a Swiftie.
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@chamath This form of embezzlment from Huntsman and others is great eg. of how public perception of a certain topic is formed; Funding results in growing OpEx, which makes non/low profit organization more hostage of these funds. No freedom of speech can exist in such world.
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@samuhyu If u price fix necessary groceries, the 1-2% would fall by a very small amount… 2% becomes 1.9%… it doesnt disappear.
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@GrantStenger While I do see crypto as a potential disruptor much like the internet in 2000, I’m struggling to see real time POCs that provided a superior benefit vs traditional tech. Perhaps its still early to see that… examples would be appreciated.
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@NickTimiraos “Taking into effect the lag of monetary policy” is a wink wink that it’s almost over.
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@marketplunger1 $VLN sells autonchips to mercedes. Expanding into other OEMs. Half of market cap in cash. No debt. 70% GMs.
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Its insane what being responsible as CEO and focused as Jensen $NVDA is do to market cap of a company vs what has been happening to $TSLA since the Twitter acquisition took place.
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MS Preview for Semis.$NVDA H100 solid demand. H200 is getting to critical mass with lead times close to 1-year. This helps with visibility. H20 (China) ASP $12K, builds multi 100K unit builds this qtr so several $B in revs. Don’t think GB200 unit estimates will be as high as the.
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@PompPodcast @APompliano Agree, but how can we complain about Cyrpus taking 10% off our deposits while losing 65% of our btc value in few months? It remains a speculative asset with a potential to be a reserve currency IF volatility drops.
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@lithos_graphein Isnt that customer Samsung? Intel already talked publically about receiving the High NA no?.
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@MyLordBebo But wait… I thought the govt doesnt negotiate with terrorists?! Maybe training and probably sending them taxpayers $ is different.
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$VLN CFO sold another 300K shares on the 10th at $5.42 bringing total sales to more than 850K in Jan. (50% of his known holdings). It seems he got plenty of options that were unvested at time of 20F filing. Just discovered that he owns additional 662K shares from 2011.
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@MatchasmMatt Questions like this makes me realize why there will always be alpha in the market. Thank you.
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@elerianm “Strange in timing” arent analysts allowed to think longly and deeply into things? Do they have to be making decisions on day to day basis? Isnt that what led to demise of Lehman, Silicon Valley Bank and others. “There’s no catalyst!!”….
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@RyanReeves_ That’s why subscriber growth is the most important metric (operating leverage), and the company no longer reports that. It’s a broken business model similar to Amazon Retail, unfortunately.
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@AndreasSteno Structural shortages in the labor market will make 2% VERY difficult to achieve. This means higher cost of debt = capital shift away from equities. Cyclicals underperforming (they significantly outperformed last 2months) due to weaker economic environment.
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@CorneliaLake $13.65-a-share deal price - a 25 percent premium over Dell's stock price before buyout talks leaked in January - was adequate.
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@bendominguez011 @GuyDealership @charliebilello No Carvana is a terribly managed business. Just making a point that net income is not a suitable metric in this case.
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@JoeSquawk Maybe she should ask the insurers in CA how they were able to set pricing so competitive most prop 103… its not like its hard to find insurance here in CA or anything….
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3) I was surprised with BYD’s rapid increase in R&D expense that have surpassed $TSLA. it’s a bit weird to double R&D within 2 qtrs… 4) BYD share of China exported EV increased from 8% in 2022 to 14% in 1H:23…. 5) BYD price discounts are less aggressive than that of TSLA.
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If anything, $SVB crisis will push fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. In January 2019, when Fed pivoted to “assess economic conditions”, S&P rallied 16% in 4 months. All we need is an in line CPI and in line NFP.
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@nntaleb Great fan of ur book. But the “cash is king” statement has been said so many times over the last decade. Mind sharing ur performance vs s&p500 over last 3-5 years? Reason im asking is it feels the cash is king strategy have not generated good returns over multi year period.
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@realEstateTrent I bought my first airbnb 2 months ago and now fully booked throughout October. What’s troubling with that? People dont want to pay $350 a night for a room. They are looking for experiences. Hotels are the worst in providing an experience.
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@Mr_Derivatives Idk why this doesnt feel like the peak yet… msft earnings were really good, AMD better than feared, Alphabet admitting that they have no problem overinvesting (although sustainibility of “over” in usettling) but still nothing majorly negative taking place.
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Can’t believe I’m wasting my time watching Alex Murdaugh trial. The Netflix show hooked me up. #AlexMurdaghtrial.
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@p_ferragu it’s +80M in vehicles sold a year and put on an EV penetration assumption. You can do a survey and see what % of people would seriously consider an EV. Out of all the possible questions, you chose that one?.
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@st_ratt @growing_daniel And very few people know the value that analysts bring to society. Even analysts themselves, they dont even realize how important their role is. They allow the most effecient capital allocation that we can have. AI may change that, but it’s still years/decades away.
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@GavinSBaker She’s a great person. We spoke once while I was on the sellside :). Enjoy the vacation.
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@dylan522p The title is dumb…. Memory content in GBs increase 50% with Sapphire Rapids and operators are using higher capacity DIMMs with 5x $/GB. Just because its lower percentage of BOM because of GPUs doesnt mean its the “biggest loser”.
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@davidein @j_fishback It’s kinda low for someone to address their previous boss that way. Couldnt u find other short sellers? Or trying to make a name for yourself as Judas?.
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@dylan522p Micron focused on Hybrid Cube Memory that’s why they are behind on HBM, not because they cant do HBM. It was a management decision nothing less.
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That’s why $RKLB and SpaceX are way more important than NASA!.
NEWS: Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has released a new opinion piece titled “NASA's $100 Billion Moon Mission Is Going Nowhere”. “The more I have learned about Artemis, the more it has become apparent that it is a colossal waste of taxpayer money. The problems start with the
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@Srasgon I was just thinking the same thing. We all make mistakes but it sucks when that mistake affects that many people. Pure bad luck. If I were the CEO, I would fire no one $lyft.
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@APompliano The crypto bros getting into health sciences… sweet. Bubble burst over feels like.
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@The_AI_Investor Yeah expertise at apple car is good for GPU clusters…. What a terrible company that is lucky to have a visionary like Steve Jobs to milk a fat fat cow for so many years. 0 innovation.
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@DavidSacks If this was a bank in Indiana with local farmer deposits, your push for government intervention would have been different. All people are hypocrites, nothing new and wrong about that. It’s just fun to watch sometimes.
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@samuhyu Yes 100%. That’s the biggest variable here. What % of ur gross profit $ are affected by price fixing. Its not whether u make 1-2% net profit margin or not.
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@NickTimiraos @MaryDalyEcon Why the fed is allowed to make mistakes that are so costly, without any slap on the wrist.
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@MrStevenSteele @rustyrockets Its interesting how Youtube shut him off right after the “allegations”. I don’t like the guy, but being accused is totally different than being guilty, and it seems allegation headlines are strong enough to ruin someone (Kevin Spacey, Johnny Depp) whether they get cleared or not.
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@TechFundies I think its more than just cheap multiple and conservative investors getting in. $PSTG wasn’t cheap and the stock grinded 25% post earnings. It’s investors realizing that AI could provide tailwinds to legacy storage for several years. These systems are 70% GM!!.
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@modestproposal1 Any company that puts a slide like that is a red red flag. Its the opposite of change.
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@GavinSBaker I did. I listened to the pod as well. Great stuff, but that was far away from cautious optimisim at the pod and it shouldnt be “strange” to this that was super bullish🤣 but I get it… pod was tech oritented. article is investment oritented… I wish u touched on valuation/cycle.
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@sentdefender @BambiHakim39245 @ttayehh24 What kind of answer is that? I like your page and the flow of news you provide but this bias is making me skeptical.
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