Dan Niles
@DanielTNiles
Followers
89,543
Following
35
Media
32
Statuses
744
Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice.
Joined October 2013
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Brazil
• 1211585 Tweets
Elon Musk
• 727945 Tweets
Meu Twitter
• 491510 Tweets
#BUS1stFANCON_KnockKnockKnock
• 199617 Tweets
Adeus Twitter
• 187935 Tweets
Wisconsin
• 116879 Tweets
Caitlin Clark
• 77858 Tweets
Bluesky
• 50055 Tweets
ブラジル
• 47187 Tweets
#GFRunTheWorldConcertD1
• 45255 Tweets
#プレイバックガチャ
• 39196 Tweets
Angel Reese
• 38472 Tweets
#INZM_30Mviews
• 24335 Tweets
michigan state
• 23117 Tweets
Djokovic
• 22689 Tweets
野菜の日
• 20124 Tweets
Popyrin
• 13432 Tweets
Stanford
• 13246 Tweets
台風一過
• 11532 Tweets
If CPI print tomorrow is <8.5%, the peak inflation narrative may spur the next bear mkt rally much like "A 75 basis point increase is not something that the (Fed) committee is actively considering," did on 5/4. But we believe the ultimate low & a recession is still ahead.
119
176
1K
With $NVDA becoming the second most valuable company in the world yesterday, I thought it worthwhile to lay out my thoughts both near-term and longer-term depending on your time horizon.
My belief is that over the next 3-4 years, Nvidia revenues are likely to roughly triple from
117
227
1K
I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more supply available from $TSM. Given the stock is currently trading 15% below its 5 year average forward PE but expectations are EXTREMELY high, I would expect a small positive reaction from the stock.
85
184
1K
Big crashes on Monday follow bad wk & bad Friday but 70%+ of my technical metrics (holdouts VIX & volume related) are oversold w/ 50% threshold. Staying disciplined & covering shorts. Believe SPX ~3K is still THE low but expect nxt bear mkt rally. Already 5 in 2022 w/ avg of 9%
106
152
1K
Today can be filed under “be careful what you wish for.” CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May 2020 which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose, investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the
84
148
1K
Sold $AAPL & now our largest single stock short. Believe 1) China (19% of rev) ban expanding to SOEs 2) Huawei resurgence 3) student loan repayment restart 4) CQ3 being 4th down y/y rev qtr in a row, will force investors to question 29x CY23 PE w/ no major AI play vs S&P at 21x.
Since posting on buying $AAPL for a high probability trade on 8/18/23 going into IP15 launch, stock is +9% vs +3% S&P. Starting to sell position given Huawei’s breakthrough w/ their 7nm processor for new Mate60 Pro. Plan to be short $AAPL near IP15 launch.
38
47
375
170
136
943
Bond mkt stabilizing. Covering over half our shorts today. Expecting ST bounce next wk. Buying names we cut back that surged into earnings (normal risk management). Doubling $META position. $AMZN largest position. Buying $APPL for high probability trade into nxt iPhone launch.
77
87
844
Powell’s speech today is bullish for risk assets through year-end. It is less hedged than expected and leaves the door open for rapid cuts in rates with no use of the word "gradual." The important parts of the speech: “My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable
67
125
895
With economic data continuing to weaken, the selloff in AI related names following poor result and the unwind of the yen carry trade, this morning August 5th, the Vix (volatility index) was at an incredibly high 66 following a 12% selloff in the Japan stock market. The Vix has
58
83
829
Fed w/ $2.3T for cities/states but 16.8M jobs still tragically lost in 3 wks w/ unfortunately more to come. Unemployment at ~13%, highest in 80 yrs. W/ Q2 GDP down 20-30%, high valuations& earnings results starting next wk, I think latest bear mkt rally ends. Adding shorts again
156
153
772
Covering most remaining shorts today. Rising probability of NT bounce for S&P. Plan to reshort higher given LT concerns: 1) lagged rate hike impact, 2) inflation & Fed staying higher for longer, 3) higher oil 4) Q4 consumer stress from loan repayment restart, 5) high valuations.
64
78
749
S&P at overbought levels into potentially disruptive events this wk: 1) Treasury auction 2) Fed mtg 3) $10T+ in mkt cap of Mag7 results. Over past yr, only 10 of 20 earnings reactions have been up for 5 of Mag7 reporting this wk despite huge rally. Goal to protect profits this wk
49
59
673
While I posted about a high probability of an oversold bounce following the 3% decline of the S&P on 8/5, I believe it is prudent to get more conservative following the recent rally that has erased all of those losses.
Two yrs ago, Russia waited to invade Ukraine till after the
With economic data continuing to weaken, the selloff in AI related names following poor result and the unwind of the yen carry trade, this morning August 5th, the Vix (volatility index) was at an incredibly high 66 following a 12% selloff in the Japan stock market. The Vix has
58
83
829
55
103
673
Magnificent 7 recap: 1) we own $MSFT & $NVDA for AI, 2) covered shorts in $TSLA (earlier) & $AAPL today but looking to reshort higher, 3) no position in $META but looking to buy, 4) sold $GOOGL 5) own $AMZN for surging profits. Covered shorts now <1% of assets for oversold rally.
I will be on
@CNBC
show Last Call with
@SullyCNBC
at 7pm ET recapping tech earnings and my thoughts going forward.
31
11
160
67
50
648
Rally from CPI lows on 10/13 has been mostly related to oversold conditions then solid bank earnings. $NFLX (-60% ytd) results give optimists hope that beleaguered tech has now found a bottom. Believe bear mkt rally continues at least until the megacaps report starting on 10/25.
69
68
643
Over past 70 yrs, S&P has Thanksgiving turkey hangover on Mon/Tue of following wk, down 60% of the time. Then visions of sugarplums drive S&P up 74% of the time with avg gain of 1.1% through Xmas. Based on recent data, bought positions in e-comm, BNPL, oil & emerging mkt stocks.
64
54
643
I enjoyed my discussion early today with
@JoeSquawk
on
@SquawkCNBC
around the Magnificent 7 results so far and my thoughts going forward. Below are some details:
Be Careful What You Wish For
On July 11th, I wrote “Be careful what you wish for.” CPI for June had come down 0.1%
51
80
618
Post $FRC yesterday, Jamie Dimon, one of the smartest CEOs- “this part of the crisis is over.” Today despite talk of FDIC cap being raised, $PACW -28%, $WAL -15%, $KRE at 52 wk low -6% on NO NEWS. If you are not worried you should be. S&P near YTD high. Risk to reward not good
70
71
549
Bought basket of oil linked names today. Post Russia invasion, US tapped Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is now at the lowest levels since 1983. Plans were to refill at $70 w/ WTI at $68 today. China, 2nd largest oil buyer, exiting zero-Covid also increases future demand.
77
39
537
While we are skeptical as to crypto’s merits as a currency (except for 3rd world countries & illicit transactions), the SEC approval of 11 ETFs makes it an investable asset class. Not sure “sell the news” reaction is over but starting to buy ETFs w/ halving event coming in April.
67
48
523
TOP 5 PICKS 2024
As a reminder, Our initial Top 5 picks coming into 2023 had a skew of defense and offense. Those were:
1) $META – Our favorite megacap w/ low valuation & growth
2) $MUFG – Japan abandoning Yield Curve Control eventually
3) $URA – resurgence in nuclear energy
Here is a link to the interview. Initial Top 5 Picks for 2024: $AMZN $META $TXN $XBI $KWEB.
23
46
378
25
89
521
Clearly I was not expecting last week’s rally which was driven by:
1) no financial fallout (eg LTCM during Russian ruble devaluation in 1998) despite hedge funds switching positioning on the yen to net long from massively short for the first time since 2021 according to the CFTC
56
37
523
Since 1930, during mid-term election wk, S&P is up 83% of the time w/ avg gain of 1.4% followed by 1.3% gain through year-end. Believe a more biz friendly govt will keep hope alive short-term but still believe THE low is in 2023 due to recession, lower multiples & higher rates.
50
58
497
~30% of S&P rev comes from outside US. During Q1 earnings in April, $USD was ~$101 & today is ~$107 (+6%.) This implies S&P rev guide for Q3 impacted by ~2% for FX not to mention higher rates, inflation & slowing growth. S&P down on lower multiples so far. Lower earnings is next.
70
76
477
S&P +2.5% from 10/3-10/9 & no longer oversold. We cut our aggressive net exposure today from nearly 80% today & added shorts. The conflict in the ME could expand & want to see if investors shift money w/ US bond mkt open again tomorrow.
@SquawkCNBC
8:45am ET 10/10/23 to discuss.
59
34
476
Sold $MSFT at $348 in the aftermarket as discussed w/
@SullyCNBC
. Azure growth slowed from 31% in CQ1, to 27% in Q2 & guide 26-27% for Q3. Sold $AMZN at $129 given implications for $AWS. May buy $AMZN back before results on 8/3 given I owned it for their retail biz despite AWS.
85
38
477
Stock market has ignored rising oil & bond yields all year but was yesterday a warning sign? This makes reaction to NFP on Friday & start of earnings season next wk that much more important. Misses (such as with $TSLA deliveries yesterday) are likely to be punished unlike in
31
56
479
Powell: “The reason you wouldn't wait to get to 2% (inflation) to cut rates is that would be too late.” Believe any further FOMO/seasonal driven gains from very overbought levels to YE will be from unloved sectors. Today Magnificent7 +0.7%, Nasdaq/S&P +1.4%, but R2K +3.5%.
60
46
454
S&P -42% in 3 mths during Lehman failure in late 2008. $700B TARP program passed to backstop everyone else. S&P +24% in 6 wks. But as Q4:08 earnings reported & EPS impact felt, S&P -28% in 2 mths to final low. Expect FDIC expansion to drive rally but earnings to be ultimate risk
45
64
449
$AMZN profit margins higher than expected again while revs also beat. AWS rev growth accelerated for first time since 2021 & should continue to improve. New high margin rev stream of ads on Prime Video just started on 1/29. We believe GAAP EPS can roughly double by 2025 from 2023
22
34
452
For those of you who are interested in our Top 5 picks and outlook for 2023.
On w/
@BeckyQuick
at 8:50 AM ET on my thoughts & Top 5 Picks for 2023. Cash remains our favorite but a commodity, defensive, tech & financial also chosen. Flexible thinking will be the key in 2023, “When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”- Keynes
50
23
341
51
53
444
Top 5 Pick 2024
$KWEB (China Internet ETF)- This is probably our riskiest pick but the one with the most valuation upside, provided that China’s economic woes lead to a better regulatory environment in the future following three years of punishment. On the surface, the China
Here is a link to the interview. Initial Top 5 Picks for 2024: $AMZN $META $TXN $XBI $KWEB.
23
46
378
38
53
440
$META -64% last yr w/ PE <S&P but CY23 EPS went up post results. $GOOGL $AMZN $AAPL had less stock drop in 2022, above mkt PE & EPS coming down for all. Believe S&P rally near end & next 5-10% is lower. During tech bubble bust lost 49% & GFC 57% while having 5 rallies of 18-21%.
71
62
429
One tail risk into YE was another bank failure given the selloff in bonds since SVB failure. On Friday, 4 of the biggest banks ($JPM $WFC $C $PNC) all exceeded expectations on EPS & NII. As important, provisions for future losses were less than expected. Supports Q4 S&P rally.
47
42
442
One of my investing rules is “Do NOT fight the hard battles.” Likely Republican gains in upcoming US elections probably drives tariffs on China higher. As a result, I am replacing $KWEB (China Internet ETF+3% YTD) as a Top 5 Pick w/ $AAPL on an AI driven iPhone upgrade cycle.
On 5/3, I posted on $AAPL with the stock -5% YTD about a likely AI driven iPhone replacement cycle. Since then, positive datapoints have driven the stock to +17% YTD including: 1) Apple's estimated iPhone shipments in China surging ~40% y/y in May, 2) Apple Intelligence (their AI
44
46
358
58
40
439
$TSM, the world’s foundry, cut CY23 rev to -10% y/y & said, in the short term, when the CapEx of the CSP are fixed, the AI processor is cannibalizing the DC processor. China demand is also worse than expected. SOXX Index +45% YTD & demand weakening again. Selling most semi longs.
39
71
435
$META beat both revs & EPS driven by AI benefits but arguably more important for PE expansion instituted a dividend which implies future capital discipline. Trading at 22x CY24 PE w/ mid-teens rev growth vs S&P at 20x for 5% growth. Election coming which will drive growth in 2H.
39
30
432
Expecting short-term digestion & then typical Santa rally but my long-term views unchanged on sticky inflation, earnings cuts & multiple compression in 2023. I still expect S&P to break to new lows during upcoming recession. Stay nimble.
Talk about a stock-ing stuffer 🎁 Satori Fund Founder
@DanielTNiles
predicts we could see a market rally between now and Christmas, but he's less optimistic about cloud and software stocks as companies cut costs heading into next year.
5
4
54
47
58
427
The Wall St. mantra of “Don’t Fight the Fed” worked great during a global pandemic. Don’t forget it works both ways. CPI +7.9%, unemployment 3.6%. Expect multiple 50 bps hikes by Fed starting May 4th despite slowing growth taking mkt multiples lower. Beware of Q1 earnings season.
74
58
414
W/ WTI <$70, buying related ETFs today. Either oil prices are correct (there is an economic demand problem) or equity markets are correct (there is no problem.) OPEC+ likely to be supportive at these levels w/ US likely to have interest in refilling the SPR.
33
37
423
Managing our risk & covered $AAPL short & getting long. Our data analytics gives high probability to ST bounce. Looking to sell/reshort given downside over LT: 1) Huawei resurgence, 2) no foldables, 3) no AI on smartphones, 4) minimal rev growth, 5) 27x CY24 PE vs 21x for S&P.
40
30
418
This is the 3rd straight higher than expected CPI. “To the extent Fed officials underreacted to the January and February inflation readings, there is a greater risk that a hot inflation number for March could lead to an overreaction.” – WSJ’s “Fed Whisperer”
@NickTimiraos
28
56
416
$KWEB (horrible pick so far) is -12% YTD. China mkts collapse is causing forced selling & capitulation in structured products as indexes break certain levels. Stks can always go lower than imagined but believe close to technical levels for near-term bounce
83
37
413
Our favorites in Mag7 are $AMZN (surging retail profits) & $META (14% rev growth at 22x PE.) Barbell invested right now w/ above plus beaten up sectors such as Russell 2K, consumer staples, biotech, China tech, semis/solar names that are through their inventory corrections.
"$AMZN"s actually our favorite of the magnificent seven because they beat operating profits by 40%," says
@danieltniles
. "We think we're going to get a year-end rally. The market is entering its best seasonal time of the year. The odds are even better when it's down going in."
8
15
84
36
42
408
Selling our energy related positions due to 1) outsized surge in stock prices due to OPEC production cut & 2) our concerns over global demand due to the recent banking crisis & 3) in 3/14 interview thought SPX to 4100 possible or at latest till start of Q1 earnings (4/14 $JPM.)
58
37
409
Solid breadth/volume. Believe S&P Goldilocks/YE rally can extend further on +seasonality, FOMO & light positioning by funds. Like lagging high beta sectors of barbell investments more through YE (eg R2K +5% today, +2% YTD) vs Mag7 (+2%, +105% YTD) w/ $AMZN $META our favs of Mag7.
Our favorites in Mag7 are $AMZN (surging retail profits) & $META (14% rev growth at 22x PE.) Barbell invested right now w/ above plus beaten up sectors such as Russell 2K, consumer staples, biotech, China tech, semis/solar names that are through their inventory corrections.
36
42
408
38
35
398
Over 70 yrs, S&P in Sept is only up 44% of the time w/ avg loss of 0.6%. But if down YTD through July & also down in August (12 occurrences), it is only up 17% of the time in Sept w/ avg loss of 3.3%. Also fundamentals still weakening in tech w/ $STX -pre just 6 wks after guide.
49
43
383
~20% of our technical metrics oversold. Prefer ~50% for conviction in short-term bottom to get aggressive but covering some shorts & nibbling at longs to avoid/benefit from next bear mkt rally. Still believe S&P ultimately down ~20%+ driven by inflation, Fed & slower growth.
39
30
372
Since posting on buying $AAPL for a high probability trade on 8/18/23 going into IP15 launch, stock is +9% vs +3% S&P. Starting to sell position given Huawei’s breakthrough w/ their 7nm processor for new Mate60 Pro. Plan to be short $AAPL near IP15 launch.
38
47
375
Here is a link to the interview. Initial Top 5 Picks for 2024: $AMZN $META $TXN $XBI $KWEB.
On
@SquawkCNBC
shortly at 8:45am ET. We will be discussing our Top 5 Picks for 2024. It includes two of the Magnificent 7, two sector ETFs that have been massive underperformers not only in 2023 but also over the past 3 years & one semiconductor name due for upward revaluation.
30
11
299
23
46
378
Expect 25 bps Fed raise & pause but no rate cuts later this yr due to svcs inflation remaining> 3%. If we get a cut, economy will have to be bad in 2H given job openings/unemployed >1.5x today. S&P PE at 19x despite CPI at 5%. Risk to reward is poor when 3 month T-bills yld 5.2%
34
53
369
Covered a lot yesterday: 1) inflation & the Fed, 2) relevance of data after 1970s/early 80s, 3) focus on wrong job cuts, 4) S&P 2400 in play?, 5) 2002 bad pandemic beneficiary demand transitions to 2003 bad enterprise demand.
We’re focused on layoffs “at the wrong companies,” says
@DanielTNiles
on
@CNBC
. “It’s going to take a much harder recession” to kill labor inflation at SMALL businesses — where consumers are stoking demand.
Good moment of clarity here, at the 2:35 mark:
22
30
196
66
46
367
Powell on cutting rates in March: “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting, to identify that March is the time to do that.” It will be interesting to see what risk assets that were priced for cuts do now.
46
30
367
Thoughts on 1) CPI, 2) continued faith in a Q4 rally at least till 12/13 CPI print, 3) potential for bigger than normal rally, 4) FTX implications for downside tail risk, 5) upside tail risk from peace in Ukraine. Still believe THE low is in 2023 but remain pretty bullish ST.
Let's get ready to rumble ⚡ With October's CPI print fueling one of the Nasdaq's best days of the year, Satori Fund Founder
@DanielTNiles
likes our chances for a market rally heading into the end of 2022.
1
9
54
59
46
362
Reaction of $TSLA (no longer short given it is now short-term oversold) to results a warning sign for upcoming megacap earnings. Prefer $GOOGL (solid ad strength for Q3 w/ boost from elections & Olympics in 2024) & $AMZN (strong retail demand & profitability though AWS a concern)
38
32
357
On Friday, the amazing
@dee_bosa
w/ an assist from me, tried to fill the shoes of the incomparable
@jimcramer
who has inspired so many to start investing over past 15 years of MadMoney w/ his blend of entertainment, humor, & market wisdom. Writeup of our discussion coming soon.
68
9
349
On 5/3, I posted on $AAPL with the stock -5% YTD about a likely AI driven iPhone replacement cycle. Since then, positive datapoints have driven the stock to +17% YTD including: 1) Apple's estimated iPhone shipments in China surging ~40% y/y in May, 2) Apple Intelligence (their AI
On
@CNBC
8am ET. Believe investors will focus not on rev -4% y/y but 1) $AAPL being relatively cheaper after underperforming YTD 2) optimism on AI focused WWDC in June 3) hopes for resultant replacement cycle & 4) historical stock outperformance leading up to a new iphone launch.
30
17
203
44
46
358
There is an adage that “the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices.” It slows economic growth, increases recession risk & reduces oil demand. We are removing $USO from our 2022 Top5 Picks following a gain of 39% YTD which tracks WTI Oil prices which are at $111 up 86% y/y!
50
29
350
Over 70 yrs, S&P in October is up 60% of the time w/ avg gain of 1%. But if down 15%+ YTD through Q3, October is up 83% of the time w/ avg gain of 3%. Lone loss was -17% due to Lehman bankruptcy in 2008. Financial institutions better capitalized today but still a valid concern.
Over 70 yrs, S&P in Sept is only up 44% of the time w/ avg loss of 0.6%. But if down YTD through July & also down in August (12 occurrences), it is only up 17% of the time in Sept w/ avg loss of 3.3%. Also fundamentals still weakening in tech w/ $STX -pre just 6 wks after guide.
49
43
383
36
48
346
CPI/core of 8.3%/6.2% vs 8.5%/6.5% both supported pk inflation hope but was higher than forecast supporting entrenched inflation fears. W/ forced selling at other funds w/ big losses, covering shorts (just ~5% of assets) & adding longs like $KWEB. Believe nxt 5% move in S&P is up
46
49
345
Strong jobs # but slightly lower AHE than expected implies goldilocks scenario of strong economy w/ declining services inflation. But implications of “higher for longer” inflation/Fed mattering more for now for bonds/S&P. Still believe ST S&P rallies from oversold on any catalyst
32
41
349
Adding $INTC to our Top 5 Picks for 2023 replacing $MUFG which we removed earlier. Microprocessors are an underappreciated enabler of AI. $INTC valuation along w/ rev growth & margins should expand. Their commitment to EUV 2 yrs ago is yielding better technology & share trends.
69
38
350
Covering shorts to get close to neutral. ~40% of our technical metrics oversold. Prefer 50%+ to get aggressively long. Also a large asset manager bankruptcy is possible w/ bonds & stocks both crushed for 1st time since 70s/80s. $BTC another risk to aggressive funds. Love cash.
$TGT cut 3 wks after guiding on shift in consumer spend from pandemic to re-opening categories. $MSFT cut on FX 6 wks after guiding. Now $INTC effectively cut 6 wks after guiding on macro. Expect more to follow. Sold longs bought for this expected S&P rally & added shorts
26
30
177
57
36
342
$GOOGL beat rev/EPS but missed OpInc & Cloud rev. Our risk management principle is to sell when wrong on fundamentals, especially if we had a consensus view. Sold half AMC & rest today. Valuation is reasonable & Olympics/elections should help ad rev in 2024 but out for now.
84
23
346
Removing $GOOGL from Top5 Picks. Unlikely to outperform S&P given 2/3rds of total ad spend online now vs ~12% during 2008/09 recession when total industry ad spend fell ~23% over 2yrs. Also ad share gains at TikTok $AMZN $AAPL & soon $NFLX. Like cash.
53
37
339
On w/
@BeckyQuick
at 8:50 AM ET on my thoughts & Top 5 Picks for 2023. Cash remains our favorite but a commodity, defensive, tech & financial also chosen. Flexible thinking will be the key in 2023, “When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”- Keynes
50
23
341
Google: “Q1 travel searches were above Q1 19 pre-pandemic levels…beaches and Islands were up 27% versus 2019 while Vacation Rentals was 37%.” Visa also + on travel. We added to our 10 travel/leisure/pandemic recovery names on their beating today & plan to add more tomorrow.
45
34
334
Jerome Powell more supportive of the market than expected: 1) “unlikely that that next policy move will be a hike”, 2) on potential for Stagflation- “I don’t see the stag or the flation” 3) more tapering of QT than expected to $25B instead of $30B.
26
35
335
The Reserve Bank of Australia last night raised by only 25 bps vs expectations of 50. Is this the first sign of a pivot by central bankers given the fear of breaking something in the financial system like an EU bank? Expect further S&P gains in near-term on FOMO & low positioning
Over 70 yrs, S&P in October is up 60% of the time w/ avg gain of 1%. But if down 15%+ YTD through Q3, October is up 83% of the time w/ avg gain of 3%. Lone loss was -17% due to Lehman bankruptcy in 2008. Financial institutions better capitalized today but still a valid concern.
36
48
346
43
40
329
Rotation to small cap laggards continued as mkt discounts first soft landing by Fed since 1995. Magnificent7 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, S&P +0.3% but R2K +2.7%. FOMO in full force w/ Fed now a tailwind. But S&P most NT overbought by our measures since mid-Sept 1995. Remain nimble.
Powell: “The reason you wouldn't wait to get to 2% (inflation) to cut rates is that would be too late.” Believe any further FOMO/seasonal driven gains from very overbought levels to YE will be from unloved sectors. Today Magnificent7 +0.7%, Nasdaq/S&P +1.4%, but R2K +3.5%.
60
46
454
49
27
322
Post tech rally sparked by $NVDA yesterday, we sold half our $AAPL at the close & are selling the rest today. We dislike positions that are opposed to our fundamental views but try to balance that w/ managing risk & taking advantage of high probability short-term trades.
Managing our risk & covered $AAPL short & getting long. Our data analytics gives high probability to ST bounce. Looking to sell/reshort given downside over LT: 1) Huawei resurgence, 2) no foldables, 3) no AI on smartphones, 4) minimal rev growth, 5) 27x CY24 PE vs 21x for S&P.
40
30
418
39
15
332
Transport companies ship a broad product range & are a great economic barometer. $FDX Q1(Aug) EPS $3.44 street $5.14, guides Q2 $2.75+ street $5.48. "Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally & in the U.S.”
38
60
323
After guiding rev/EPS 7/10% above consensus for May qtr on 3/29 & sounding positive at their investor day on 5/12, $MU guided August qtr rev/EPS 21%/37% below consensus. Another sign of how quickly demand for goods benefitting from pandemic including PC & Smartphone is falling.
44
54
318
Since the GFC in 2008 & especially since the pandemic in 2020, the biggest benefit to stock mkts has been unprecedented easy money policies. Today the Bank of Canada & Thursday the ECB are expected to cut rates again for the 1st time since 2020/2019 to try & keep the party going.
21
36
318
If $AAPL does not negatively pre-announce on Monday (low chance), expect a technical relief rally given 2+ standard deviation move lower yesterday on DOJ news. This had been previewed for ~2 months. My longer-term fundamental view remains negative based on competition & valuation
35
22
318
We discuss earnings driving stock performance for the Mag7 in 2024 ( $META $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA strong while $AAPL $TSLA $GOOGL underperform on competition issues) when it really wasn’t in 2022/23. We are long the Fantastic 4 of the group & short the other 3.
Satori Fund's
@DanielTNiles
breaks down the
#Mag7
stocks: the fantastic four on the long side and the rest on the short side with
@SaraEisen
,
@CarlQuintanilla
&
@DavidFaber
.
5
6
40
24
31
316
If companies are willing to spend more, biz is healthy. $AMZN is hiring 250K seasonal workers in 2023 vs 150K in 2022/21, 100K in 2020 & 200K in 2019. Believe they will take share as consumers become more price sensitive while still expanding retail margins.
30
29
314
5 tech megacaps ($AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT) that reported are down ~9% on avg this wk (have covered many shorts & buying $AAPL today) & S&P passed this test up ~3% on 1% lower $USD & ~25 bps drop in 10Yr yields. Expect bear mkt rally to continue & less aggressive Fed on 11/2
Despite 2nd & 3rd largest components of S&P, $GOOGL & $MSFT, down ~6%, S&P is passing this test w/ flying colors on 10yr yields & $USD dropping w/ hopes of less aggressive Fed nxt wk. Still 50%+ net long vs 80%+ yesterday. FOMO may take mkt even higher given today.
50
28
270
80
34
312
Lower than expected CPI keeps hope alive for Fed cuts later this year. $ORCL guiding to strong growth in their cloud business should drive optimism for established cloud titans $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL. Mkts hitting new 52-week highs should help drive FOMO.
14
27
311
Recap: Sold $NVDA $INTC on weak IT spending concerns. Plan is to be not involved/short into earnings this week on concerns over online ad spend- $GOOGL $META, weak PC demand recovery- $MSFT, cloud spend- $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL. $TSLA $T $NFLX earnings reactions are warnings.
"The good news is $META and $GOOGL have pretty good valuation support trading around the S&P multiple," says
@DanielTNiles
on tech. "You look at $MSFT at a 29 P/E with a lot of optimism around ChatGPT or $AAPL at a 27 P/E."
10
9
92
43
41
308
In the near-term, being long the S&P is the same investment position as being short oil & long bonds. Oil now +3% today has driven 10yr yields from down at the open to now up 5 bps and stocks from up to down. At some price ($95-100?), the cure for higher oil will be higher oil.
25
37
314
On Oct 26th, posted that shorts now <1% of assets. Following this recent 10%+ surge in S&P to overbought conditions getting defensive to protect against short-term pullback. Then believe we get one more FOMO/Santa rally before YE w/ an up December.
24
27
309
My base case remains recession w/ the S&P down 35-50% from its peak. There are some years when nothing happens and in some days years happen. Last wk, the average DAILY move was 7% w/ S&P losing 9%. Best strategy remains sell rallies & cover crashes till THE bottom is reached.
43
57
289
We expect the Fed to pause. Central banks of Australia & Canada both paused but restarted hikes in June. Fed is probably in the same position later this yr. FOMO & AI optimism driving S&P to 20x PE w/ lagged effects of rate hikes in front of us while 3-month T bills yield 5.3%.
55
41
303
Lack of profitability in their retail biz has been a problem w/ $AMZN despite big growth. But Q1 saw a glimmer of hope. Buying some $AMZN today. Still expect AWS to get worse but retail is ultimate profit driver. Shorting more cloud software names which also hedges that risk.
54
25
306
A few of our 17 technical metrics near/at oversold eg: VIX, % of S&P above 20 day moving avg, %new 20-day lows. Odds increasing for nxt bear mkt rally. Covering some shorts & buying favorites including leisure, travel, commodities. Reaction to megacap results this wk another clue
51
29
300
As previewed, we were wary of megacap tech earnings this wk & S&P target for the latest bear mkt rally was 3900-4000 per our interview w/
@cvpayne
on 10/21. We started reshorting & reducing longs today. Test for S&P tomorrow given $MSFT & $GOOGL results.
Interview yesterday on why I am wary of megacap earnings (generally “loved” w/ high PEs) next wk but still believe Oct finishes up within another bear mkt rally. Would rather be long “unloved” names down more than the mkt where expectations are much lower
9
16
153
51
33
300
On
@SquawkCNBC
shortly at 8:45am ET. We will be discussing our Top 5 Picks for 2024. It includes two of the Magnificent 7, two sector ETFs that have been massive underperformers not only in 2023 but also over the past 3 years & one semiconductor name due for upward revaluation.
30
11
299
Thoughts going into earnings season including 1) best ideas in the US internet space, $AMZN & $META, to capture the benefits of ramping AI deployments & 2) why we still believe China internet, $KWEB, has the potential to see multiple expansion drive performance.
Tech investors will have to "be very selective" in 2024, according to Satori Fund founder
@DanielTNiles
.
7
8
56
30
27
296
209K NonFarm payrolls, 3.6% unemployment, 4.4% avg hourly earnings roughly inline with expectations. Positive View: soft landing still in play. Negative view: rates going up & staying higher for longer. At a 20x S&P PE, I side with the negative going into Q2 earnings & Fed mtg.
51
39
293
From 7/10-7/16, $IWM +10.4%, $QQQ -1.3%, Mag7 -3.9% following the favorable CPI print and increased chances for Fed rate cuts. $ASML (AI semiconductor tool provider) was down 13% yesterday. Was this due to them just reiterating yearly guidance despite beating expectations for the
Interview w/
@MelissaLeeCNBC
on looking outside of bigtech for ideas through year-end. The upcoming earnings season may start to broaden the rally as some big tech companies look for ROI on their AI spend so far. Looking at Europe post their political angst & US small caps.
19
18
211
20
23
291
$NKE outlook cut on “known” issues: FX, China lockdowns hurting demand, elevated supply chain costs. Stock up 3% early & now down ~5% & near 52 wk low. This is a warning sign if you think bad news is discounted going into Q2 earnings season, especially after recent bear mkt rally
41
40
284
Interview from earlier today on my views on the market, upcoming earnings season & Top 5 Picks for 2023.
[WATCH]
@DanielTNiles
tells me his top
#2023investmentpicks
, plus what his prediction is for the S&P 500 and the
#USEconomy
8
17
116
29
27
284
2023 Top5 Pick $META, especially post $SNAP, looks great: 1) Q4 rev beat & Q1 guide in-line, 2) 2023 dubbed “Year of Efficiency”- capex cut 11% & opex 5%, 3) Reels product & AI discovery engine driving growth, 4) solid user growth & engagement, 4) PE still below S&P even at ~$180
52
32
281
Interview w/
@MariaBartiromo
at 8:45 am ET on 1) our thoughts going into Q4 earnings which should be bad for tech in particular 2) recent declines in inflation data & 3) why we continue to believe the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer than the market expects.
58
22
276
On
@CNBCTechCheck
at ~11AM ET on our big picture investment theme of “Don’t Fight the Fed & Don’t Fight the Fundamentals.” S&P ~3000 (15x PE on $200 in CY23 S&P EPS) is still our target for THE bottom driven by inflation coming down slower than expected coupled w/ a recession.
46
38
281
Payroll processing firm ADP reports 497K jobs added in June, most in over a year. Our thesis for inflation & Fed rates staying higher for longer is over 50% more job openings than people unemployed will keep labor costs high. Expect a Fed hike in July to pressure PE multiples.
45
46
276
Bought more $INTC yesterday. Believe Intel can outperform S&P/Nasdaq from here to YE. At ~1x book value ex $MBLY, a cheap call option on either $AMZN or $NVDA becoming a silicon foundry customer by YE driven by need for diverse geographic supply & Intel closing tech gap w/ TSMC.
43
25
280
While $NVDA will drive AI tech today given EPS estimates ~DOUBLING! for nxt qtr, $SNOW results point to a slowdown in April/May for cloud consumption as customers focus on cost optimization. Stock selectivity key as the economy slows & costs scrutinized, even in datacenter.
55
27
281
“Buy when there is blood in the streets.” Only 2 shorts left & <5% of assets (avg ~50%) & net long near 70% (avg ~25%). WTI/Brent down 5-6% since 9/27 while S&P -1% & 10yr climbed 15 bps. Our belief was stocks (& bonds?) would rally short-term following oil & not other way.
In the near-term, being long the S&P is the same investment position as being short oil & long bonds. Oil now +3% today has driven 10yr yields from down at the open to now up 5 bps and stocks from up to down. At some price ($95-100?), the cure for higher oil will be higher oil.
25
37
314
34
33
277