Isaac
@roundrobin42
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sports bettor writing about sports betting. always line shop
Joined January 2019
honoring my grandpa who used to bet on every college team above +500 because “they’re all students, they can’t be that much better”
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Hard to believe this is from the Washington Post's editorial board. No one is winning at 80-90%, and if you believe they are you shouldn't be writing about sports betting
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trader review for live bets is so scummy. placed at +125, reviewed for almost 30 seconds and then accepted. when the market is down to -110. no option either, once the wheel starts to spin you know you're getting freerolled.
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I wrote about how sports betting is probably getting too much hate, and why critics should focus on iGaming instead
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@TheStalwart Because people like sports and gambling ads have ruined it. Also too many kids are gambling.
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@haralabob Force ads to say that if you win they’ll kick you out, show the dream casinos are selling is a myth.
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Really enjoyed this interview, thanks so much to @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway for having me on. In addition to the details about how to make money betting, I’m happy we got to talk regulation and dive into some of the shady practices operators use to squeeze $ from bettors.
NEW ODD LOTS:. How a professional sports bettor makes $$$. @tracyalloway and I had an amazing chat with @roundrobin42 about his full-time profession, betting on sports online. How he finds an edge. How he bets in size. And how the sportsbooks make money.
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@b4nanashOt Prime Kyrgios had a way higher peak. For sure wasn't consistent but could compete with the big 3 and top players more than De Minaur or Popyrin ever have/will.
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In advance of tomorrow's @MassGamingComm meeting I wrote about why professional gamblers act like addicts, and why that probably means the system is broken
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ESPN Bet is such a joke. Good luck gaining market share when your odds are so bad that Fanduel and DK have better prices *on both sides* for nearly every match. -105/-130 lmaooo
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only bet I won last night
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Listening to old @Matthew_Trench @Pinnacle podcasts and came across this gem on how odds aggregation software has made the sharp bookmaker model less attractive than it used to be
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friend who refuses to use >1 sportsbook is aggressively price shopping his election bets, make it make sense.
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nothing worse than getting -CLV on sports tickets. thought I snagged a great SeatGeek deal only for the entire market to move 3 hours later.
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Come for the clickbait title, stay for the @robpizzola responsible gambling hot takes.
EPISODE 178 PRESENTED BY @Pinnacle🚨. @robpizzola is joined in the studio by @roundrobin42 to discuss tennis modeling, his approach to betting, priming accounts, and much more. WATCH:
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he would’ve loved round robins and learning that his fav sportsbook had best in market prices for all the biggest dogs.
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wrote about this a while ago, messed up then and still messed up now
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wait what.
The Atlantic admits that sports betting should not have been legalized. Of course, it never would have been legalized if not for the Left. Legalizing Sports Gambling Was a Huge Mistake - The Atlantic
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expert analysis only
Is This How You Bet On Tennis? With @roundrobin42 . powered by @Pinnacle . #SportsBettingX #sportsbettor #bettingtips #bettingtwitter #bettingexpert #tennis #ATP #WTA.
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Of course, those prices are sometimes an illusion. Not sure why Draftkings can’t afford to let me bet more than $30 on the #1 player in the world to win a major tournament 🤷♂️
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Banger @RufusPeabody take on iGaming and how crappy it feels to act like a problem gambler to get higher limits and better treatment at sportsbooks
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New York is probably missing out on $10+ mil in tax revenue by not allowing bets on the Paul/Tyson fight.
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imagining watching this in the context of a lawsuit or senate hearing 10 years from now.
DraftKings has got all the sports action and responsible gaming tools you need for the new year. The crown is yours! 🫡👑 @DraftKings #DKPartner
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“legalizing and expanding gambling will be great for kids” is such a funny argument.
This is just one of the many ways legal sports betting dollars will be helping North Carolina students. Across the country, regulated online sports betting and iGaming helps states make investments in their future.
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@RufusPeabody I think that’s the point. Draftkings isn’t going to do this (optics horrible), they’re saying this because it pisses people off and makes them opposed to the supposed cause (higher taxes). They want people to associate high taxes with a bad product and thus oppose high taxes.
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@TheStalwart @TheZvi Arbs also become more desirable closer to the conclusion of the event, maybe not worth tying up $ for months to get a 1-2% return but nice if you can guarantee than in a day or 2.
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Despite what casinos say, gambling is bad for the economy. It creates some jobs and tax revenue, but the costs of problem gambling are massive. There are also opportunity costs; money spent gambling could be spent elsewhere, which would increases taxes and help the economy.
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@josemorgado Does that mean he’ll be replaced by 1 of these 4? Sad but lucky for Ruud, Mensik’s dangerous.
Roland Garros Lucky Loser situation:. Currently there is 1 LL spot, so 4 players would be in the LL draw with a 25% chance of becoming LL.
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Really appreciate @UnabatedSports giving me the chance to talk and write about tennis betting. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or tennis newbie there should be something in here to help your bottom line.
Get all the ins and outs on playing game/set spreads, how a player's service game affects totals and more 👇.
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Clipped some of my favorite @robpizzola comments from our @CirclesOffHQ episode last week. On chasing losses:
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know a bunch of people with large amounts of crypto liquid who will be trading today-tmrw. none of them would give it up for a guaranteed 2%. people with lots of liquid crypto =! ppl interested in small arbs.
@TheStalwart @TheZvi Arbs also become more desirable closer to the conclusion of the event, maybe not worth tying up $ for months to get a 1-2% return but nice if you can guarantee than in a day or 2.
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@mr_peanutbettor imagining a trader watching the punt return and laughing as he manually accepted ur bet. and at the end of the year getting a bonus based on how much ev he stole from bettors.
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My article in today's WSJ, where I argue that casino-led RG initiatives are destined to fail. Main points: bettors are losing more, few use tools like deposit limits, and casinos can't be trusted to regulate themselves.
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pretty funny that the strategy which seems the surest way to 20x your $ actually has by far the lowest chances of succeeding.
-1000ctober Day 3:. Turning $100 into $2K this month from rolling over -1000 odds bets only. We’re headed to the baseball diamond tonight. #DKPartner
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🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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think smarter not harder
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Experiences vary, but every time I’m in a state where iGaming is legal I’m reminded just how much more addictive and dangerous it is than sports betting. Currently on Amtrak, decided to fire up some blackjack while in CT and before I knew it was 4 deposits in and chasing
@roundrobin42 Do you really believe some products are designed to be less effective/efficient at extracting money from the player?. I’m not sure that’s an argument that can be made. The thing that changes is the target audience and the hurdles faced.
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Ideal Sunday = wake up + tail judah
Week 2 Betting Gameplan. Tails Angles, matchups, SGPs. Let's make some $.
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@JoeyKnish22 Just run ads saying how unfair draftkings is and add an extra 20% margin to ur SGPs, no one will notice
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Only 1 American in the top 10 and he’s a mega 🐳🐳 LFG.
📣 Event No. 6 #DeepstackNLH - Day 1 has come to an end. Registration closes tomorrow at 12:40 PM EST. Total Entries So Far: 253.Players Remaining: 96. 👀 Here are your rankings heading into Day 2 #wsopPARADISE
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Live odds for Djokovic matches like this are so funny, no one knows whether he's going to retire from injury or somehow turn on god mode (chart courtesy of @odds_view)
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This time I was lucky: with the last 1k got back to even, and had the clarity of mind to snap withdraw and close the app until we crossed the border. Fairly disgusted with myself and grateful every day it’s not legal in NY
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@PlusEVAnalytics @BrianneDoura Agree, the reason operators are so cagey about reasons why they limit players is because it goes against the dream they’re selling recs.
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Most people know sportsbooks limit winning users, but they also *increase* limits for their biggest losers. They also make it hard to see how much you’ve lost, and push “responsible gambling” tools that no one uses.
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Rest of the article is fine, yes AI will help operators prey on users, yes more regulation is needed, but plz stop with the AI hyperbole
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@MrLiimited Think this is why cashout offers for bonus bets are so egregiously low, they know lots of users wanna lock in profits there.
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@a_kane47 @astraffon @JoeBrunoWSOC9 @stevebrubaker Need data on how many accounts are active (vs signing up for a bonus and never coming back) to see how average players are actually doing.
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SGPs have really numbed me to bad beats. Used to wince when I saw someone lose AA vs AK in holdem, now it doesn’t even register unless it’s like 1 yard off away from a 200/1 bet hitting.
500k+ people saw this slip before kickoff…. Ban illegal shifts. I am so sick.
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(assuming no ridiculous @RufusPeabody -100000 +EV bets) if you do this you’re paying the max amount of vig, you’d be better off yeeting on a 20/1. but if you do that can’t claim bad beat when you lose ofc 🤷♂️.
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One benefit widespread legalized betting could bring is more accuracy to stories like this. Yea it is crazy he beat a top 10 player in his first major, but the market had him at ~+150, giving him a ~40% chance of winning. No one betting on tennis was close to stunned by this.
Who is Joao Fonseca? 18-year-old Brazilian wonderkid stuns Andrey Rublev at Australian Open
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iGaming has none of the redeeming qualities of other types of gambling, and is way more addictive
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Betting on your countrymen confirmed +EV.
@Flupnolide @bostonred88 Zverev -165 sharp but $ is on Fritz and Morgan. Tiafoe ML (any price) is 10u big bomb banger, with another 10u ready to deploy if he loses first set and 80u ready if he loses first 2 sets. See link in bio for more VIP plays.
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Awesome initiative by @HIAorg and @TheHumaneLeague to raise $ for animals. Shoutout to @erinroutliffe and other players donating 2% of their winnings to good causes!!
With the loss of Harri Heliovaara and Anna Danilina in mixed doubles, 🇨🇦 Gaby Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe are the only defending #USOpen champions who are left this year in New York. They play their QF match Tuesday to try to keep their hopes of repeating alive.
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Seems like I was wrong and they actually are planning to roll the winning surcharge out, but I still think it’s a ploy to get users/policymakers to push for lower taxes. Stock is down 9% today though so not going great for #DKNG.
@RufusPeabody I think that’s the point. Draftkings isn’t going to do this (optics horrible), they’re saying this because it pisses people off and makes them opposed to the supposed cause (higher taxes). They want people to associate high taxes with a bad product and thus oppose high taxes.
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it's a lot easier to push back against things which aren't yet normalized
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Also: better regulation doesn't necessarily mean higher taxes. For sports betting, higher taxes => fewer operators =>less competition => bad for gamblers. Current tax structures also penalize low-margin operators such as @sporttrade_app and @CircaSports, who treat bettors better.
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@Flupnolide @bostonred88 Zverev -165 sharp but $ is on Fritz and Morgan. Tiafoe ML (any price) is 10u big bomb banger, with another 10u ready to deploy if he loses first set and 80u ready if he loses first 2 sets. See link in bio for more VIP plays.
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None of this is to say gambling should be illegal. But casinos need to be better regulated to combat their most predatory practices. Gambling can be fun, but if casinos are given free reign–and states legalize iGaming with minimal oversight–Americans will lose. A lot.
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edit: just realized I mixed up the order. I placed at -110 => bet got reviewed => odds moved away from me to +125 => bet was accepted at -110.
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Hard to overstate how important it is to have multiple sportsbooks and the ability to compare prices. These are the current odds for Novak Djokovic to win the French Open on Caesars vs Draftkings
This player who chose @sporttrade_app over ESPNBet is making $1,680 more if Riley wins, and saving $1,680 less if Riley loses. Better odds = money in your pocket, WIN or LOSE.
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I wrote about parlays, and why they're not as evil as most people think
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@Flupnolide @mr_peanutbettor “Unlikely to have value for most users” have you met most sports bettors??? Something as simple as showing that books have different lines would be useful for most lol.
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@Zwxsh Probably not the biggest, but Nishikori 2014 US Open final. Beat Djokovic in the semis and had his best ever chance at a major, just to get thrashed by Cilic. Great run vs an in form player but a horrible final performance.
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