BigBuckHunter
@BigBuckHunterrr
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A few observations about the state of the industry:
1. The operators are doing well.
2. The states are collecting plenty of tax revenue.
3. The recreational players are having a blast, with an obscenely large menu of markets available to them.
4. The laziest advantage players
Here’s the truthful answer that every operator is unwilling to give.
The “proprietary risk management” they are unwilling to share is they slash winning bettors limits and multiply losing bettors limits. They pretend to care about problem gambling but this practice clearly
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SpankOdds can take over your computer for 30 seconds because you give it system level permissions when you install it.
When DonBest was first released (and last maintained) operating systems did not provide desktop notifications as a feature to developers. The only way to
Here’s a message we just got about
@spankodds
. Guy says the 30 second ad, which runs every hour, takes over his computer. This ad only appears for free basic users.
To all the paying SpankOdds users out there - you don’t have to worry about seeing any ads. Thanks for supporting
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just some very real bets that were in no way intended to manipulate lines on a copycat book
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Robert Saleh is the favorite for both Coach Of The Year and First Head Coach Fired right now on Bookmaker.
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Building an Auto-Mover
From the outside looking in, auto-moving lines on action seems like a simple task for a sportsbook; take a bet, move the number. But under the hood, it’s more challenging than it appears. Consider a few scenarios:
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@CirclesOffHQ
@betstamp
Man is compelled to arrive at the airport early from the deepest primordial recesses of his being.
If you don’t experience this, you are weak. Your bloodline is weak. You will not survive the winter.
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@SharpClarkeNFL
the real secret to SB exactas is constructing them as SGPs. we make this 554/1 fair fwiw
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I'll be in the
@UnabatedSports
discord today @ 2pm ET answering questions about exchanges, market making, the sweepstakes model and more. Come say hi
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Novig is open for business in Colorado. A few notes: (1/6)
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At Newark Int’l en route to LV and there are dozens of sports bettors on standby for this flight.
Seems like they all missed their original flights because they fell for the
@CirclesOffHQ
misinfo and showed up at the last minute.
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Theo Hold % and Sizing as an Exchange Market Maker
As an MM, you charge vig 2 reasons:
1. To Make Money
2. To Not Lose Money
Accordingly, at
@novig_app
we decompose our hold into 2 categories: Profit and Adversariality.
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you guys gotta read this stuff lol
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Thank you very much to
@goldenpants013
for inviting me on to explain a little bit more about what we do here
@novig_app
.
If your time/attention is limited, skip to the last 15 minutes.
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Does the
@RASPicks
insurance not incentivize them to 1. release weak/losing plays if they are below 54.5% towards end of MM 2. hold back on releasing winning plays if they are just above 54.5%?
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Following a successful launch,
@novig_app
quantities have increased substantially. > $1500 on all main markets at post, as low as -106/-106. Infinite re-bet every 2 seconds. Have fun out there.
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This is what sportsbetting regulation looks like in practice. Keep this in mind when someone tells you that new legislation could “protect bettors.”
Colorado Division of Gaming took a moral stance against 100+ betting markets yesterday. Most of the 147 markets were removed primarily for being too "negative."
Don't worry; you can still bet on a player to hit "Under 0.5 HRs", just not "to a HR - No." This leaves the door...
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TEN +2.5, Total 38.5. Goes under, TEN fails to cover the +8.5 teaser line.
LAC +2.5, Total 48.5. Soars over, LAC covers +8.5 with ease.
Stanford Wong rolling in his grave.
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@adamlevitan
Michelle Wie made similar comments in her retirement speech -- if you want eyeballs on the LPGA, make it gambling friendly.
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I was so young 🥹
Who you got in the Super Bowl? Novig’s Head of Trading
@BigBuckHunterrr
takes you behind the counter and tells you which team is getting the majority of the bets -- and who he likes in the game.
Read here:
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@PFF_Steve
@gregolsen88
When they invoke “who’s on the field” here, 9/10 times the implication is that the offense is no good and won’t convert the 2pc often enough. But the bad offenses are supposed to make high variance decisions! They are bad at football!
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@kevinrdaley
@SpiritofPines
The eye ointment blurs their vision for hours at the very moment they’re supposed to establish their first visual bond with their parents.
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Putting the finishing touches on the NFL Preview for
@bet_bash
alongside
@throwthedamball
Can't wait to see everybody and please stop me if I go over 30 minutes on the new kickoff rules.
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@Matthew_Trench
@4caster20
@NotMailman
The answer to this question is more expensive than any of the services themselves.
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Here’s another helpful exercise:
Imagine 3 exhaustive outcomes, A, B, C, with equal probability.
At Book 1 you can bet B at +400 and C at +400
If you bet $50 each:
A: -100
B: -50 + 200 = +150
C: -50 + 200 = +150
Per kelly criterion f* = p - (1-p)/b, .333 - (.667)/4 = 16.6%
That’s actually not true. Let me demonstrate with an example.
I have a million dollar bankroll. I also have access to an oracle who can tell me the true probabilities of events. He/she tells me Bryson has a 1% chance of winning.
I bet No Bryson at -2400.
Edge: 3.13%
Optimal
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@NFLPinnacleBeat
You went crazy when you indexed from 2, now every QB looks like they were slightly snubbed.
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“Stonehill - who?”
You gotta click “Extra Games” bro, it’s there.
correct - roaring kitty resume is a joke
Stonehill - who?
CFA - who cares? what level?
FINRA - absolutely any moron can get Series 7
unnamed startup -- ????
lexshares -- who???
massmutual - 10th tier mutual fund
would not even let a junior interview let alone me
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@ShipTheJustice
the people winning under these constraints have mostly moved past the point of complaining about limits
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Shoutout
@goldenpants013
for raising his profile right before I appear on his podcast. Marketing genius fr
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Thanks to everyone who dropped into the AMA, hope to meet some of you at
@bet_bash
in 2 weeks.
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@capjack2000
They don't actually believe it, but its how they pitch to VCs. The VCs also don't believe it, but think other VCs will.
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The growth of F1 is directly attributable to Drive To Survive. Djokovic refused to participate in Netflix’s equivalent tennis series Break Point, which was cancelled after 2 seasons.
Novak Djokovic says tennis is endangered at the club level, ‘If we don’t do something about it globally, they’re gonna convert all the tennis clubs into paddle or pickleball’
“In terms of innovation in our sport… other than Slams, we have to figure out how to attract a young
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To answer that question, imagine that all 3 outcomes A, B, and C were available at +400 at Book 1, and (A or B or C) was available at -150 at book 2. The individual kelly sizes for the +400s would not change, and we would be at 3 * 16.6% = 49.8% of our bankroll split equally
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@PlusEVAnalytics
Math is what it’s worst at. You’ll have better luck asking it to write code that solves algebra.
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me when a book limits me: wtf this is ridiculous im gonna call the government
me when someone bets sharp action into my PPH: ERROR - CALL CUSTOMER SERVICE 😏
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And I thought I had SB exactas figured out
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How will the NFL’s new kickoff rule impact totals?
Negligible difference
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2+ points higher
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@norealcappers
@NFLPinnacleBeat
@thebeaglebets
@PlusEVAnalytics
@iGamingOntario
@Ont_AGCO
I gave an extreme lower bound, in my experience it is true that if you bet real work on major markets - even openers - you maintain usable limits on CZR. FD also strikes a fair-ish balance imo. Not perfect, but if every shop was like that, we would have a healthier ecosystem.
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@BenAxelrod
@Flupnolide
@rBillSimmonsPod
Think of them making the finals == 100% chance of making the finals. As in yes, their odds of making the finals are very high rn. But they will be even higher when they are actually in the finals.
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Back at it
Meet Henry Kerins, our Head of Trading at Novig.
With a background in both trading and betting, Henry brings a unique perspective to the table.
He's never been afraid to challenge the status quo and ask tough questions about the industry.
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I just got fired from Wimbledon 😢 I was the guy in charge of making sure none of the players beat themselves to death with their own rackets.
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@deepvaluebettor
I was gonna say there are only 32 teams in the NFL but the panthers may legitimately be the 33rd best team in the league somehow.
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You beat the close because you are sharp. I beat the close because I bet until the line moves. We are not the same.
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huge thank you to everyone who's used
@novig_app
over these first 10 days, especially those who have given us feedback on the app. this is our baby, and we're so glad to have all of you on board.
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@fairplaygov
The more freedom operators have, the better off everybody is. That includes the freedom to limit.
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I was an eng at Bloomberg for 6 years, left to create the Bloomberg of Sportsbetting ™️. Shortly after, it occurred to me that I could have stayed and made the BBofS ™️ on the actual Terminal. BBOS <GO> maybe. How different the world would look now.
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@capjack2000
@dillonborg3
@goldenpants013
@MrLiimited
@spanky
@AwesemoDFS
@CSURAM88
Well placed shibboleth this is.
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Gambling is good. The positives outweigh the negatives.
If you care to, you should gamble on sports. You should bet enough that you care if you win or lose.
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“Auto-mover” is such ridiculous language for the complexity of the task. Bro just move the number bro! Take a bet move the number!
@GamblingDrama
@BrettFavre444
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@CarbonBradyCrew
@TheTailgateTent
@RASPicks
If we could have instituted an auto mover already we would have. People don’t understand how hard this stuff is if they don’t work behind the counter. We lower the game tier and try to take the onslaught of bets at a lower limit so we don’t get run over with 25+ bets
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"We don't need to pull orders during a 5 minute maintenance, what's the worst that could happen?"
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@sprotzbettor
@denver_calling
The big 2 operators will guide the regulation heavily. If they say “we don’t want this and it won’t help” then it won’t happen.
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A look at our exposure to exact outcomes in DEN-GSW tonight.
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@4caster20
@chattim3
@Matthew_Trench
My favorite feature of bovada is when you accidentally login from NY, then 12 seconds later you login from TX and they’re like 🤔 👍
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@d_feustel
SO is very good software. With regard to the specific issue I mentioned, they are identical.
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@MrLiimited
@bronerp4p
You can extend it by losing some, but the duration of the extension will be roughly equal to the extent of the losses.
You can ofc extend it by winning without CLV on popular Mkts/products, which is doable. But idt that’s your audiences forte.
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There is no hole so deep that you can’t martingale your way out of it.
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One advantage of a new, low volume shop is that it doesn’t take much for us to move. 1k in GSW action has us dealing DEN -3.5 at -105
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@bronerp4p
@MrLiimited
First mistake is assuming the book thinks their mid price is the fair.
There’s really just no way to do this against a major rec book. Best case is you can juice your limits and pile one black swan event. PPH different ofc.
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@FulldogBanfield
SO/DB can access/modify/delete any file on your computer with the access you grant.
They can also access your webcam and microphone.
I believe all the popular chat applications encrypt whatever sensitive data they store locally.
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@sprotzbettor
@bronerp4p
@Matthew_Trench
If I somehow found myself in public office, I would call my HF pals every day and ask them for the umpteenth time to explain to me how the world works.
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@Ias0801
Tens of billions in market cap and we're all supposed to pretend these companies aren't selling services that people really, really want and enjoy.
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The best thing about having your own live model is its a lot easier to deduce which side is taking sharp money early in a game.
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@novig_app
in-play liquidity is greatly improved. we have near constant uptime on live nba, nhl, and nfl. instant approval, unlimited re-bet, same limits for everybody.
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Imagine implementing this at work, then going home to your family and trying to teach your children right from wrong.
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This allows us to produce an exposure matrix across all possible final scores, weighted by the probability of each of those scores. It looks something like this:
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Yes voters DM me your resume
Our team hasn't been able to get work done today because everyone's been trying to solve this puzzle.
Let's assume we have a roulette wheel, half red and half black. Suppose you go to the casino and watch 100 spins of the wheel. Suppose you bet only when you see a streak of 3
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In practice, the interplay of Profit, Adv., and Market Width looks like this:
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@sprotzbettor
@AdamBjorn2
@JeffreyBenson12
@MASSIVE_ARBER
@skipfornow1337
@CirclesOffHQ
@robpizzola
My impression of SIG sports is that it’s a long-term, pseudo passion project within the firm. This is probably more “if you build it, they will come” than anything.
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@jonlerner
People say this, but in my experience the worst thing for an FD account is consistent CLV on widely available main markets -- moreso than clicking bad lines.
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@Matthew_Trench
@chattim3
Sure. specifically:
High density of main markets in multi-event view 🫶
Click-to-expand alts 😍
Highly responsive price changes (maybe using sockets? I haven’t checked). Bet confirmation and price updates simultaneous 🤩
single event view is abysmal.
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@sprotzbettor
@AdamBjorn2
@JeffreyBenson12
@MASSIVE_ARBER
@skipfornow1337
@CirclesOffHQ
@robpizzola
i imagine making money is very low on their list of priorities atm
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