Mike Cagney
@mcagney
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@Figuremarkets co-founder and CEO, @Figure board chair, macro trader, blockchain enthusiast. Views are my own and not investment advice.
San Francisco
Joined May 2009
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We've had $15.5B of net inflows into BTC ETFs, but a $7.5B increase in futures open interest over the same time period. The basis trade (buying spot via ETFs and selling futures forward to earn what was an insanely high drop) - not some Coinbase conspiracy - is why the ETF
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Three thoughts about the upcoming Celsius auction...
1.) Listing on the Nasdaq (or any centralized exchange) is a long and uncertain process. I think regulatory counsel would suggest this could take over a year if it happens at all. I believe Figure can support secondary trading
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@PatRabbitte1
@MHE_BE3ET
My proposal to
@FTX_Official
is as follows.
We combine
@Figure
's broker dealer, ATS, transfer agent, money transmission licenses, MPC wallet custody, high frequency order matching and offshore VASP licenses with the FTX customer list and IP. We take the combined company
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Happy to announce the $61M series A in
@FigureMarkets
, with lead investors
@JumpCrypto
,
@FactionVC
,
@PanteraCapital
and support from
@DistributedG
,
@cmtdigital
,
@RibbitCapital
and others, with
@dan_pantera
joining the board. We’re building the decentralized custody exchange
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It's important to look at both sides of a market. The "There was x BTC minted today and y inflows into ETFs" ignored the short going on the futures at the same time. Note that now that basis is not as attractive, the unwind shouldn't impact prices either.
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I had some good meetings in Austin this week, but if I hear one more person talking about putting an office building on blockchain I'm going to bang my head against the wall. It's not a good usecase for blockchain - pick something that displaces trust with truth.
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@AaronDBennett
"smarter" is a high bar I'd prefer not to be measured to! When I get some time I'll write up the basis trade in more detail - and hopefully make the understanding more accessible to everyone.
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@Coinfera1
@novogratz
@NovaWulfDigital
@Figure
@JasonNewNW
@cryptomiami1
@jk_seriouslyjk
@chefknife88
@KcKell
@KryptoKpr
We want to build alignment with the Celsius community that stays in NewCo, and that will include some Figure equity.
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Here is my personal analysis of the SVB depositor waterfall. Net is, SBV bought over $100B of agency and treasuries at the top of the market, didn't swap them to float, took a big loss when rates went up and began to realize those…
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Biggest news in crypto right now should be about the Supreme Court's Chevron ruling. This moves arbitrary enforcement from the regulator to the court. Previously, when there wasn't clear legislation, courts had to side with the regulator (e.g., the SEC). With this decision,
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@FTXRELOADED
I would like the exchange to restart immediately, and use 1145 to issue public equity of the relaunched exchange - with our ATS and FTX public equity - ASAP.
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Lots of people wanted me to better outline the BTC basis carry trade, so here it is. This is not investment advice.
Using 6/21 closing prices, the July 24 BTC futures was 64,810 vs. a 63,972 spot price (identical time stamps). There are 38 days to contract settlement. So if I
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Sent $50 in HASH to Provenance/Cosmos/Figure wallets of...
@maxwell459
@cwrichardson
@henokappa111
@jackchong_jc
@mrcryptologic
@jacksonblau
Thanks for helping on exchange questions. Looking forward to your feedback on our exchange.
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Why is everyone talking about the $9B BTC Mt Gox distribution and not the $14-16+ billion USD being distributed to FTX creditors later this year? I sure hope the estate doesn't do this distribution in paper check form - maybe that fear is why?
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FTX was a great exchange - with one flaw. Lets stand up all the good - single stock perps, cash settled perps, cross collateralization, deep liquidity - and get rid of the centralized custody. That's the game changer.
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BTC is trading over $50B per day. Total Mt Gox distributions are about $9B (and have barely started). Mt Gox sellers aren't driving down the price. Mt Gox-induced BTC FUD is liquidating levered longs - a reinforcing cycle pushing prices down. Market is selling the rumor -
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@BrockBlake
@SBAgov
@USTreasury
What is goofy is it isn't even a loan. You can borrow 2.5X one month payroll, and they forgive 2.5X one month payroll in eight weeks. Outside of salary caps (100K), this is a grant. Maybe Treasury should treat as such.
@stevenmnuchin1
@USTreasury
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Thanks for the recognition and honor,
@FastCompany
. Humbled for
@figure
to be named one of the most innovative in the
#Blockchain
,
#Crypto
, Metaverse, and
#Web3
category and we're excited for what's to come for both the
@Figure
and
@FigureMarkets
business.️
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@cryptohunter0x
Technically, because the mediation agreement is using plan date prices, I think Earn comes out better (in market value). We'll present a distribution waterfall and host a spaces to discuss. We're moving as fast as we can.
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Truth. This is why <xyz> bank coin on a private network will never work, either.
@custodiabank
.
@mcagney
just spoke truth: public
#blockchains
are useful but private blockchains aren’t (might as well use a database instead). 🎯 I hope federal bank regulators learn this. Cagney’s right. The tokenization that federal bank regulators want is only useful on public blockchains.
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Excited to be working with the community to drive this forward. Best (and fastest) bid for day 1 liquidity for those who want to sell, and best ongoing value for those who want to stay in.
@CelsiusUcc
#blockchain
@CelsiusNetwork
@NovaWulfDigital
@galaxyhq
Galaxy is a steadfast proponent of improving access to digital assets. A digitally native, public equity token could be a milestone for the sector’s growth and adoption. The proposed transaction for the bankrupt Celsius assets by
@NovawulfDigital
&
@Figure
is an excellent example
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@FTXRELOADED
My proposal to
@FTX_Official
is as follows.
We combine
@Figure
's broker dealer, ATS, transfer agent, money transmission licenses, MPC wallet custody, high frequency order matching and offshore VASP licenses with the FTX customer list and IP. We take the combined company
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@CelsiusFacts
@CelsiusNetwork
@coinbase
@AaronDBennett
@SimonDixonTwitt
@otisa502
@iTzAnthonyNap
@TheRealPlanC
@TiffanyFong_
@binance
@elveton101
@sunil_trades
@FTX_Official
The lead “advisor” to Celsius’ bankruptcy cost creditors at least $300M while landing himself a board seat at Ionic. Criminal - but par for the course in US bankruptcy.
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Ok - are you an
#FTX
creditor upset about the
#SOL
sales? Or you aren't a creditor, but still think the last sales went way too cheap?
Well, now you can do something about it.
@FigureMarkets
is collecting indications of interest to stand up an SPV to compete in the next locked
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Today
@Figure
announced a multi-buyer, multi-seller whole loan marketplace transaction. This is the first step in an overhaul of the private credit capital market ecosystem, and one of the first sustainable and economic use cases for blockchain that has come to market (though I
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Grateful to the Celsius community for joining us last night on Twitter Spaces. Smart questions from an impressive and passionate group of people. Looking forward to continuing the dialogue alongside
@JasonNewNW
,
@MichaelAbbateNW
and the
@NovaWulfDigital
team.
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Provenance Blockchain Foundation is seeking an executive director to promote the Provenance RWA story to the native crypto audience, move the foundation offshore and list HASH (the utility token of Provenance) on the centralized exchanges. This is a high profile role in a well
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Excited to be talking
#blockchain
in London in March at the Digital Asset Summit! We'll have lots to review, from a registered security stable coin to the first decentralized spot limit order book, plus over $30B in RWA transactions on
@provenancefdn
's Blockchain.
@blockworksDAS
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FTX claims trading on
@FigureMarkets
. There are a few reasons you might want to sign up for this. First - see where claims are trading and the market bids/offers. Second, we'll be doing some special things over the next two quarters for FTX creditors that are members of Figure
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Pleased to announce the close of
@SoFi
's Series F round, and to welcome some great new investors.
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Extremely proud to announce that our team at
@Figure
has closed our first rated HELOC securitization led by major institutional finance players Jefferies, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. Figure continues to generate significant inst…
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@mmmn6k
@Purple_Pupp
@PatRabbitte1
@MHE_BE3ET
@FTX_Official
@Figure
I'm a buyer. And I think some of the largest FTX creditors view our proposal as having $billions of value. Hopefully we can get in a room with PWP, S&C, Jefferies and Rothschild and work out a deal.
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I wonder what
#blockchain
and
#crypto
will look like
#25years
from now? Feels like we're already moving past the fiasco's of 2022.
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I can't emphasize how important this transaction is. First, it's the first US bank to mint a fiat marker on a blockchain, backed by fiat reserves. This is the beginning of USDF. Second, it is the first US securities transaction…
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Really enjoyed diving into onchain markets and the future of
@FigureMarkets
with you
@fintechfrank
. A lot to unpack here, listeners will definitely find our discussion on the
@TheBlockPods
interesting!
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@DanielFCelsius
It's fair to ask for this in writing, and we'll do that. We're working through our mining partner and ensuring we're adhering to an OWD. I might publish the proposal and distribution waterfall ahead of an objection given this - let's see where we get to mid-week.
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I believe in the "everything" marketplace.
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What a crazy two weeks in
#fintech
. Expect a more regulated, mature industry coming out of this - Fintech 2.0.
#marketplacelending
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$10.4 B in TVL and it doesn't show up on
@CoinMarketCap
,
@DefiLlama
or
@coingecko
because Hash isn't on a CEX? It's on
@FigureMarkets
.
@provenancefdn
quarterly replay is here:
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DART is a foundational step towards a true digital (and
#blockchain
native) capital market ecosystem. MERS has had a monopoly for far too long in
#mortgages
. Now I'm hoping Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae offer originators this cheaper, easier option.
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Stable coins are the most important driver in crypto value. Stable coins support the development of alternative payment rails. Visa and MC have a market cap of nearly $1 trillion USD. Whatever L1 disrupts interchange through stable coin adoption should be worth at least that
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@booklilifee
We offered to dual list, or start on the
@Figure
ATS and move to Nasdaq if the liquidity wasn't there. The Novawulf bid was higher (more returned) and the stock would be trading now.
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I’ve been thinking about a few things related to layer 1 blockchains, speed and ecosystem. A recent conversation with
@sandeepnailwal
helped form my initial thoughts here.
First, I think we are losing the forest through the trees re: the competition for blockchain speed. Solana
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@booklilifee
@ChazzonKe
@elveton101
@BrianMocca460
I think our proposal is another OWD - best and highest. It’s coming.
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@cryptopnr
At the margin, when a seller comes in, there needs to be a new buyer (shorts must equal longs). The new buyer (generally) isn't speculating, they are hedging - so they are going long the future and concurrently borrowing BTC to sell short in the spot market. That short sale
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I'll do a longer writeup on our motivation for this tomorrow, but thrilled to announce our merger with Homebridge Financial Services, Inc. We'll be working together to transform
#mortgage
with
#blockchain
, and building into a mult…
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6
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We quietly launched crypto-backed loans. So you know it will only take a few weeks for us to launch crypto-backed mortgages. This will usher in a broader digital-asset-based lending ecosystem, where you can easily borrow against…
0
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@nietolej
@PatRabbitte1
@MHE_BE3ET
@FTX_Official
@Figure
@FTX_Committee
I think for assets like Anthropic, they should put them in an SPV and distribute to creditors. Creditors can hold, sell, borrow against the position today - on the exchange - and the debtors can choose their own timeline for liquidation.
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This is a big deal - excited to be partnering with NovaWulf Digital Management to bring the first
#blockchain
native public equity to the US market. That's right - no DTCC, no centralized exchange, no brokers - a true
#decentraliz
…
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5
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I don't get the association many are pushing between blockchain and AI. To me, they have very little to do with one another, other than AI is a great buzzword to use for raising capital when crypto is out of favor. What am I missing?
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Do you ever ponder the
#blockchain
irony that most
#crypto
trades on centralized exchanges? I’d like to change that with
@Figure
.
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I think 2023 will be a watershed year for public equity native on
#blockchain
. Thanks for speaking with me on this,
@jeffgapusan
!
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For all of you who dump on San Francisco, it's going to be a balmy 70 degrees for a high today. It's 90 and miserable in NYC, will hit 107 today in Dubai and 87 (feel like 96) in Singapore. If only CA adopted forward thinking crypto policies and took on draconian federal
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@packyourbagson
@cryptopnr
The futures were trading at an implied annual interest rate of >30% (the drop). So you sell the futures, borrow BTC at 2-5%, sell spot short. You margin the spot short with the proceeds from the sale, and put up 20% margin on the futures. You are earning the 25% (annualized -
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@JohnCavendish10
@FTXRELOADED
All creditors should own the new exchange, and their equity should trade on that exchange - same venue for BTC, ETH, etc.
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@booklilifee
This statement is only true if listing on a national exchange. Listing on something - like Figure’s ATS - would not require approval and could happen immediately.
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Reminder: register your indications of interest on the upcoming
#SOL
auction here:
Docs will be ready by tomorrow morning. Onshore is USD/USDC, offshore USDC only.
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5
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@mrcryptologic
@booklilifee
@rigga88
It's happening. Taking a little longer than I hoped, but it's happening.
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When number go up? Not fun seeing BTC back under $60,000. And when are the other L1’s going to start trading independently? They shouldn’t be so correlated.
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@Figure
and
@FigureMarkets
dominate
#RWA
on
#blockchain
. Look at that graph and tell me who is even close?
@provenancefdn
@mcagney
@CosmosATOMDaily
Built on the
@provenancefdn
blockchain using
@cosmos
,
@Figure
is the largest Non-Bank HELOC originator in the U.S., helping over 100,000 homeowners access credit.
The future of RWA is happening fast 🚀
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Today SoFi has a 5.1B market cap. FRC has a 3.3B market cap. The trade seems obvious to me…
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@KyleSamani
The key here is the equity needs to be native to chain. Tokenizing an equity sitting at DTC does not solve anything - it's a waste of time and gas fees. Given this will be very hard to do through an S-1 and there are no more viable bankruptcies to use 1145, we need creative
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@samss_91
@PatRabbitte1
@MHE_BE3ET
@FTX_Official
@Figure
Our proposal gave creditors the option - but not the obligation - to invest - along with some ownership in the combined company.
@figure
can fund the restart.
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. Over the coming months, the market will start to see what Figure and Homebridge Financial Services, Inc. are doing here, and the value of
#blockchain
in
#mortgage
and
#fintech
. Though I think
#stablecoin
is a more relevant mediu…
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I’m tired of tradfi people saying “I’m blockchain, not crypto”. Blockchain doesn’t work without crypto.
Often people who say this are referring to permissioned blockchains. Permissioned blockchains are stupid (unless you are using them as training wheels to migrate to a public
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@_sradic_
@PatRabbitte1
@MHE_BE3ET
@FTX_Official
@Figure
There would be a significant amount of scrutiny given to a restart, but I think
@Figure
can work with the SEC (onshore) and the right foreign domiciles offshore to make this work. We had gone down the 1145 path with Celsius and could have done it had the debtors gone with us.
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@CelsiusFacts
@CelsiusNetwork
@coinbase
@AaronDBennett
@SimonDixonTwitt
@otisa502
@iTzAnthonyNap
@TheRealPlanC
@TiffanyFong_
@binance
@elveton101
@sunil_trades
I hope that
@FTX_Official
reads this thread, along with the countless complaints on distribution from the Celsius case as they consider the guidance their advisors are providing (who also advised Celsius) on how to handle FTX distributions.
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5
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I think the Fed just eased - stealthily: "In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by
2
2
22
With prediction markets putting Trump 19 points ahead of Biden, many would think BTC would be rallying. I think there are two counterveiling forces here. First, be careful what you wish for. Despite crypto friendly rhetoric, we don't know who will head the SEC (and CFTC) in a
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0
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Charts don’t matter – if they could predict future prices the prices would adjust today. What matters is supply and demand. The value of a crypto token is the present value of fees paid into the ecosystem. Blockchain needs to build sustainable economically viable uses cases. We
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1
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Today’s fun fact: we’ve refinanced over 275 student loans for grads of Louisiana-Lafayette. Go Rajin' Cajuns! (cc
@ConsumerBankers
)
1
7
21
Late notice, but I'll be talking about
#Hash
in the
@provenancefdn
quarterly update. Register to listen live, or listen to the recording later. Big changes coming on
#blockchain
.
Register here:
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5
20
@booklilifee
@rigga88
Working on this week. Having lots of discussions around how to deal with mining.
4
1
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We just sold (private company) stock at T+instant, in the US. Big
#blockchain
milestone. Looks like Nasdaq and ICE are still trading at T+2. Maybe they will move on to Provenance Blockchain Foundation? If you are a private comp…
0
5
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I have small accounts at the CEX's to help inform how we build out
@FigureMarkets
. I'm on one of the biggest ones now - and granted, it's a lowest tier retail account, but they are showing a $67,347 offer and $66,075 bid for BTC (which is at $66,696). Why would anyone care
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3
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Excited to be working with NovaWulf Digital Management and the Celsius community to further
#blockchain
applications and create shared value across
#financialmarkets
.
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4
17
Consumer spending is ripping, but the
@sffed
just published a chart that suggests the party might be ending soon. But even if spending cools,
#blockchain
will still be ripping.
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4
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If both options relied on decentralized custody, would you rather trade BTC/ETH on a lower liquidity, decentralized LOB or a higher liquidity, centralized LOB?
I'll figure out how to send some HASH out to the first few of those who answer.
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@figuremarkets
has turned on crypto lending for loans against
#BTC
and
#ETH
. No dollar limit. Currently for US residents - international in the next 1-2 weeks. And your collateral is not rehypothecated - don't repeat the
@CelsiusNetwork
mistake.
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7
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Super excited about talking about
#RWA
on
#blockchain
next week in Austin. Thank you
@rwasummit
,
@centrifuge
and Superstate for pulling this together, and
@KenzieSigalos
for driving the conversation.
Join
@KenzieSigalos
from
@CNBC
in Austin as she moderates a discussion with
@mcagney
from
@Figure
about his predictions for the future of tokenization!
0
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Every
#bank
should join USDF Consortium.
#USDF
is bank-issued
#stablecoin
that will ultimately displace ACH, Wire, SWIFT and...interchange. Big changes coming to
#payments
.
#blockchain
is real. Congrats to Synovus, NBH Bank, New Yo…
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8
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Thanks
@HousingWire
! Working on getting first liens entirely on
#blockchain
, from origination to financing to takeout pools. Will save a ton of time and money, and it's coming soon!
We're happy to announce our CEO Mike Cagney has been honored as one of
@HousingWire
's Top 50 Tech Trendsetters. Congratulations to all the other winners!
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@LouisOrigny
@PatRabbitte1
@MHE_BE3ET
@FTX_Official
@Figure
No. I believe the debtors have been focused on things outside of the restart, so there hasn't been much dialogue around the topic recently. I'm hoping S&C's statement about giving up on a restart was out of context and there is still a path here.
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@PatRabbitte1
I believe the debtors want this, as well. A relaunched exchange - if done right - is worth $billions to creditors.
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