macondor!
@macondor
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FPL old head, pseudonymised bird 🦜 Stats + context. @FFScout HOF 7th, @FPLresearch 16th, @fplreview Elite 1000. OG & analytics #Elite64 .
22/23: 203rd
Joined March 2021
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🌎 16th
🇮🇪 2nd
🏆 23/24 FPL Manager Ratings 🏆
🥇 Fábio Borges 🇵🇹
🥈
@teffers82
🏴
🥉
@FPL_Barbossa
🏴
5.
@BenCrellin
8.
@FPL_Jan
9.
@FplHedgehog
10.
@MarkkuOjala_
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
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Me beating all the lads at work who picked their FPL teams six months ago and haven’t made any transfers since
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8K
This is sad to see. It’s been clear that LiveFPL has finally started to creak after years of Ragabolly painstakingly maintaining it (for free). Same with FPLstats. I use all 3 of these every week and find them so valuable compared to lots of ‘content’, would hate to see them go.
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I'd been told about this too but didn't want to say publicly - figure it's OK to talk about now that Focal has? A really good addition imo.
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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NB: this does not preclude situations where you actually have made a mistake. In those circumstances I'd say it's probably best to just stubbornly refuse to recognise it and carry on regardless.
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Full quote is way more definitive imo?
“Erling is ready. We need him, the qualities he brings to the team. I have spoken with him, he is ready to start. So many games coming, for us, for Liverpool, who play Luton on Weds 21st February at 8pm. We need everyone.”
Pep Guardiola on Erling Haaland's importance to the Manchester City squad! ⚽
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Darwin, true to form, misses a one-on-one in injury time. If he scores it’s max bonus and a 12-pointer. Why is he like this? Is God testing us? I do not know.
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LiveFPL screenshot for posterity: finished 🌎 203rd. Lovely.
Thanks to all the very nice folk from this strange, niche corner of twitter for the chat. Have a great summer, jump into the sea as much as humanly possible imo. 🌊✌️🦜
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For the third time this season, back into the top 1k. Now to stay there.
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Please
@FFH_HQ
, for the love of god, call off the goddamn content creator price change tweets. It’s relentless. I’ve already made the Nkunku/Rogers swap and I’m still losing my mind. Whatever you’re paying, just get another article or something instead - cannae take no more. 😵💫
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Must be weird being a relatively low-profile PL footballer like John McGinn, and (rightly) picking yourself in FPL. Do you think when he scores there's a small part of his brain, as he races towards the fans to celebrate, thinking "that's a pure +5 points on the field plus bonus"
McGinn started Watkins!
He sold Hojlund + Onana ➡ Darwin + Pickford
via
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92pts, best GW of the season.
⬆️ to 72k
Was -50 variance vs the field five weeks ago, but Ollie Watkins, Julian Álvarez and Arsenal Football Club have made a nice dent into that. Thank christ.
Old target: catch worst ever finish (78k)
New target: catch second worst (42k)
✌️🦜
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Nkunku 82 minutes, 1-pointer and hamstring strain against City immediately before this run? Don't mind if I do.
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Was 860th before tonight, so it’s pity Bruno couldn’t convert some of that xGI. Still, a very good week all told.
Up to 1k OR 🌎
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Firing up Review seconds after deadline for the first twelve-week horizon solve including GW37
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FPL have given Gabriel an assist but left the goal too. Seems like the fairest outcome imo
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Just realised I’m the only player in the Analytics Elite 64 that has KDB. Am I such a suboptimal grassy monster? No. It’s the other 63 who are wrong.
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Kompany saying positive things about Charlie Taylor, could be back to face Liverpool in GW24:
🗣️“I’m quite positive on Delcroix and Taylor, we’ll see if the final training session goes to plan. Hopefully it’s positive news, but we’ll see.”
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They also capture (for me) what made FPL communities brilliant - scores of nerds sharing their skills/time/effort to crack these mostly pointless but fun problems. No shade on others, but I’d hate to see that squeezed out as the only thing monetisable is 100s of YouTube hours. 🫤
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Made it into the original Elite 64, as well as the Analytics Elite 64. Now to explain to my girlfriend why that’s actually cool and good.
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Salah (c) currently tying with
@fpl_tactician
’s entire midfield five of Mount, Kulusevski, Saka, Martinelli & Diaz. Maybe another bonus point to tip the scale? Let’s see.
#FPL
#porridge
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GW38: Eberechi Eze materclass to bag a seventh top 10k finish on the final day. Magnificent. Loooooong season, but hopefully enough to hold ground in the
@FPLresearch
rankings.
Gonna spend the summer watching the Euros, not playing FPL and jumping into the sea. ✌️🦜
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“If I have to make a tackle, then I've already made a mistake" - Paulo Maldini
@Move78_FPL
Taking hits when necessary is good, but playing such that they’re very rarely necessary is better
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Sad to say it, but Salah’s just not been the same since AFCON and also Review launching this afternoon
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🌲505th
Bench boost next week, likely a few hits to make the most of it.
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GW22, 2FTs
Salah, Alvarez ➡️ Haaland, KDB
Darwin stowed away for BUR in GW24.
✌️🦜
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GW36: 108 points. Very good week, but will need two really excellent (lucky) final ones to make top 10k. 19 points off - very annoying that Gvardiol alone would’ve sorted that 😑 - but BB still in hand. Fingers crossed the WC35 BB is a few players up on the others.
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GW28 🌎29k
Estu, Dub ➡️ Zabarnyi, Neto
Was torn on the hit but am critically hungover and the thrill of it felt worthwhile in that context. Everyone has this exact team, or this exact team + another doubler, or this exact team with no hit, so a small green would be nice.✌️
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GW27:
Hwang ➡️ Son
Haaland 🧢
I’d really like to play Gordon - second week of owning Solanke and I hope he misses out. FH29, WC…. some time after that. Let’s see how the fix fall. ✌️
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I’m sorry to say it, but all of the voices on here criticising Hwang as a bad pick just because Luiz scored a brace are embarrassing. Genuinely terrible process that should be ignored. Bowen scored a hat trick, he was the better pick. 👍
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Almost can’t believe how lucky people who saved funds and skipped Cancelo in GW17 have gotten. Simply too delicious and advantageous for non-owners
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GW26
🌎 35k
2 FTs: Darwin, Jota -> Solanke, Hwang
Spent countless hours trawling for pics of Charlie Taylor training and now he’s first bench. In Pervis (and pasta) we trust. 🍝
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Early days, but interesting looking at
@fplreview
's selection rates for
#WC13
squads. Despite 8m mids being en vogue, model is keen on a threemium of Haaland, Kane, Salah. Very hot on Solanke, Saka, Martinelli too. Bit surprised to see Ederson so high.
#FPL
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I feel for people on WC20. All that restraint only to end up here - hungover, full of turkey, god knows what fucking day it is, trying to assemble an entire squad of 15. I just spent ten mins thinking about 2FTs and now I need a lie down - the brain power for a WC could be fatal.
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In general, there’s no overwhelming EV case for WCing now vs later (unlike, say, DGW season). What will determine the ‘right’ time will be variance & hindsight - just like the season so far it will swing on whether popular assets with great fix keep blanking or do a Watkins.
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GW31: Foden, Watkins ➡️ Salah, Muniz
Die cast for the 31-33 pre double period.
No Darwin as it would've meant a hit and selling Son, who I want to keep. May he and 0.65 npxGI/90 man Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho deliver in spades. ✌️
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92 points once Gabriel gets his assist, green to 140k. Lovely.
- Watkins (c), Solanke blank
- Foden, KDB, Haaland trio somehow all started and returned, Álvarez & Walker blank
Variance chart finally shooting off into the top right-hand corner of the phone like it’s meant to 👍
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GW26: 54 pts, tiny red arrow. Almost grey.
Disappointing week. Was +~6 EV on the field having managed to get 12 players out in a blank with no hits, but them’s the breaks. ✌️
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People are getting better at accepting randomness/variance *in* game, but still can’t seem to make the mental leap with mins.
For most marginal calls, it’s not really as predictable as you think - it’s luck. People just whack a post-hoc narrative on after the fact.
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If you’ve spent 4 chips in 4GWs (like me), I don’t think it looks too bad from here. Top 10k stats below.
Only 16% with a WC is much better than expected, and about 20% have no FH. Half the field have BB so 4-8 extra fix.
Final verdict Weds. TC Salah will decide it. 🇪🇬👑
#FPL
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Every week
@fplreview
tells me to ditch Zinchenko, but I've resisted. Then he got injured while Gabriel & Saliba scored. Silently furious about this: sat at my computer shouting "a random injury doesn't mean you were right about his xMins!!!" at the omniscient, all-knowing model.
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Team scored 34 points, bench scored 32 points, Solanke scored 17 points. Terrible week.
Merry Christmas to one and all, all the same. ✌️🎄🎅
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When the underlyings are red hot but the returns aren’t coming, there’s only one thing to do: be patient. 🎩⚽️
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GW29: Boarding a plane to Edinburgh, gonna be offline for deadline. Here is the FH team. If any season-altering news breaks in the next hour or so please tell my family, friends and legions of devoted followers that I loved them and that this is now an asterisk season 🙏
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It's have-your-cake-and-eat-it territory I know, but the dream is somehow getting FPL Twitter without being exposed to Football Twitter ™ (shudder). Just a small TL of nerds who like this dumb game, without the futile, doomed debates over which megaclub is more virtuous/evil
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In 15+ years of playing FPL I can never think of a more insane time to make early transfers. If you sold someone last night to save 0.1m - when everyone already has forty eight million ITB and counting - there’s no saving you. Delete the app and find jesus (or actuarial science).
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Bruno Fernandes: by a huge distance United’s best and most consistent player of the post-Ferguson era. Such a strange, brilliant hybrid - Roy Keane but in a 10’s body. Can count himself unlucky to have played in teams this poor - technique for that goal as good as it gets. 🎩🇵🇹
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It’s cool that the guy who’s as close as you can reasonably get to best FPL player in the world also has the clarity & humility to say this. Ballon D’Or winner still turning up first to training in a modest hatchback. 🐐
@dis_fpl
@LetsTalk_FPL
@FPL_DoubleBogey
2m before this week. 🥴
I think there are many people playing at a similar level now and I’ve just been luckier in the last few years, so have more recognition. The skill differences at the top are minimal.
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Such a ridiculously punishing season. In a sea of similar WCs Gordon was the one differential - Palmer racked up penalties, and of course Gordon waits until the one GW he's benched to do this. 2pts from this pair vs Bournemouth, 21pts vs Chelsea. Painful.
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55 points, green arrow to 767k. Decent start. Thoughts:
🔵James already gone for Botman
🔴Havertz may go a week early, ideally to prison
🥅Watkins & Saka losing pens in the same week not ideal
👹Bruno (and to a lesser extent Rash) easy holds
🧤Tempted by Ederson 👀
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PSA: Nobody is 'overlooking' Kane & Son. They're not slept on gems. They are *obviously* brilliant and will score tons of points.
But so will Salah and Haaland and many others. That's the whole basis of the game: lots of good options, can't get em all. Make peace with this imo.
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GW15, 600k OR
If I’d rolled last week I’d be 400k, have a spare FT, and Ollie in place to cook a Rodri-less City. But we go again:
Turner ➡️ Dubravka
I’ve seen drafts with Tsimi & Palmer/MGW and I’m sorry to say it’s not quite optimal my friends. Guéhi Gordon Gang rise up. 🎲
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On bad swingy GWs, IMO it’s good to remember:
1️⃣ Don’t let yourself get tilted
2️⃣ Understand the difference between a bad pick, and a good pick that didn’t come off
3️⃣ In furtherance of 1-2, usually helpful to close this app and do almost anything else instead
4️⃣ Walk the dog
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🏆 Manager Ratings, March 2024 🏆
🥇 Fábio Borges 🇵🇹
🥈
@teffers82
🏴
🥉
@FPL_Barbossa
🏴
10.
@BenCrellin
36.
@haugsrud
68.
@SebWassell
110.
@elevenify
144.
@LetsTalk_FPL
1273.
@sertalpbilal
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
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I’m sorry but if you’re sat there worried about Chilwell it’s a skill issue and you have to own it. This is exactly why we have deep benches.
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Haven't run the numbers, its team dependent etc etc, but I instinctively like that WC27 allows an immediate BB28 - no waiting hoping to avoid injuries. FH34, loads of FTs before 37. BOULUT guys cheap enough to keep a few benched and then focus budget on first team. 🤔
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Green arrow to 600k, which you take, but another week of what could’ve been. Watkins (sold a minute before the deadline) scoring in the 90th minute and the low EO double Arsenal CS killed in the 86th. Still waiting for that mega GW to turn the season around. Tuesday? 🤞
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@BenCrellin
Pretty remarkable, but the guy who told me has been right before. I'm fairly sure our source is the same.
I'd been told about this too but didn't want to say publicly - figure it's OK to talk about now that Focal has? A really good addition imo.
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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People who do this kind of stuff - apply machine learning to reverse engineer hidden price change rules - are legends. This lad, ragabolly with LiveFPL, etc. Monumental carry on imho
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First GW in a long while down EV on the field, so will absolutely take a small green to 237k.
Annoying one regardless: Arsenal double CS, Gordon assist, Darwin breaking records - could’ve been huge. Two FTs but will need to sell Mo to get Haaland, suggestions on a postcard plz.
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The timestamp on me ditching Pinnock is literally 11:00 on Saturday morning. Deadline was gone, give me the points plz
@OfficialFPL
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GW35: 81pts. Green to 24k but another bad week, running well below EV. VDV goal VAR’d off was a real sickener.
~25pts off a seventh top 10k finish with 3 GWs to go - seems unlikely unless the BB gets lucky. Might need to buy some risk. 🎲
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I’m sorry to report that FHing this GW sucks and is terminally boring but is also in most cases the correct play. Remember: we’re not here to have fun, we’re here to eek out marginal gains on a field of which the great majority do not and never will know you exist 🫡
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I have no idea what methodology goes into this, but nonetheless: very trustworthy and robust ranking imo.
🏆 All-Time FPL Manager Rankings
🆕 End-of-season update incl. 3-year & 5-year ranks!
👏 Fabio Borges maintains top spot!
🥇 Fabio Borges
🥈
@ginger_assassin
🥉
@BenCrellin
🎖 What is your All-time FPL rank?⭐
🔍
🔽 See the full list 🔽
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