FPL Review
@fplreview
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FPL planning toolset with integrated projections & multi-period solver
Joined January 2019
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The planning tools on are back online for the 2024/25 FPL season!
The rule changes have been modeled along with a revamped bonus point model and a few tweaks hidden around
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Planning on has just gone to the next level, after a front-end overhaul of the planner tools
You can now draft, save & visualise multiple transfer plans on using the site prediction models. This, amongst other upgrades are detailed below
#FPL
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@Benny_Blanco40
Since joining Liverpool,
NPxG90 (rainy day): 0.61*
NPxG90 (dry day): 0.56*
Mo is quite good!
*Finishing ability modeled
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@FPL_Gundo
Luck -v- skill discussion is fully dependent of the reference group.
Compared to the full cohort of managers, skill will dominate
Against a group of similarly skilled managers, luck will dominate
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Automated Chip Plan analysis has been added to the Massive Data planner!
You can select GWs for potential chip usage, and the solver will evaluate all possible chip plan combinations
This is something users have been requesting for for the last 12-18 months, so great to get it
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The Massive Data model is back for 22/23, and it's come with a major upgrade to the solver included!
🔂Multi-period solves
🎲 Risk modelling
🗒️ Practical planning capabilties
🔎 Navigable transfer paths
🥇 Top distinct transfer lines
#FPL
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The Massive Data model is live for the 23/24 season!
There are a few new notable changes:
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Upgraded MDv3 model
- 12 GW Horizon
- Switch to 0-95 xMins scale
- Season Review back to mins played
- Backend Upgrades
#FPL
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The schedule for today is the Massive Data going live this afternoon and later on in the evening/night the Free Model will also be accessible- almost there!
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@Benny_Blanco40
I know this is a joke but sadly enough I've found myself in a position where I do have data on this and would happily share. I think I've got a problem, time to join Analytics Anonymous
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As someone who owned Mo last night, I'd personally recognise it as a variance event. Maybe someone expected him to get 21pts (fair play) but I'd have been happy with 7 from him
Variance is pretty well accepted in games like Poker, yet still oddly controversial in FPL
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40 sets of identical teams were found in the top 500k
One person seemed to host 7 identical teams for some reason, finishing approx. 130k. The commitment shown to that pointless endeavour is exceptional
No occurrences of exact replica teams were found in the top 10k
#FPL
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🏆FPL Review Data Based Champion 20/21🏆
The scan of the top 350k
#FPL
teams is complete! This means best managers in the world based on
@fplreview
modelling can be announced
If you finished top 350k you can find your team here (use ctrl+f):
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I've just applied a few significant upgrades to the sites solver which have been in development over the past while
- Major speed increases for heavier solves (speed 1-5)
- Ability to explore potential routes visually & generate ideas
- Live solver output
Details below👇
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Mitrovic is probably going to be the popular captain pick for DGW19
Currently he's ranging between 2/1 and 3/1 for a YC against LEI across a number of bookmakers. Factoring margins, likely in the realm of 15-20% clean
Around 80-85% chance of ~8.2EV and 15-20% chance of ~4.7EV
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The fplreview preliminary planning model is live ʘ‿ʘ
This planner is free access for next weeks, the full model and upgrades will be released at the end of the month
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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The Planner Tools for 21/22 are officially live!
✅Premium service launched
🔥Upgraded Massive Data Model
🆕New Free Model
⚽️Public Set Piece Taker Models
⏱️xMin Process Upgrade
📺Updated Quick Intro Video Guide
More on the way!
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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The Season Review tool is back online!
Changes:
- Estimated ranks are now more precise across sample and exact at high EV ranks
- Stylistic comparison against the Elite 1000 added
- Process change, will allow for plenty of scope for further additions
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Team ID 4783269 was the least interactive manager in the top 10k. Not making a single change in terms of XI, bench order, captaincy etc. in 11 GWs this season
99.5% of Top 10k managers made some form of change in 35+GWs this season
Zero set & forget teams made the top 500k
#FPL
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A preliminary version of the Massive Data model for the 21/22 season is now live!
The official start of 21/22 for will be w/c 2nd August, some updates on work being carried out below
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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🤖The Preliminary Massive Data planner is now live!🤖
Make plans using the most powerful prediction tool in
#FPL
, run optimisations and modify game-time based on the latest news
#FPLCommunity
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GW1 (Preliminary) Elite 1000 Data
Captaincy Data:
- Isak captained by 76% (76% of owners)
- Salah captained by 18% (72% of owners)
- Haaland captained by 3.9% (4% of owners)
Bench Boost GW1 Watch
- 5 of the Elite 1000 played bench boost
Players with 30% Ownership in Elite
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More or less have closed out the new upgrades and working on integrating everything into the site now- plan is to go live on Wednesday, was aiming for the 31st but lost a couple of days unfortunately
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We're pretty much there and I hope you are all mostly set with your squad selections
xMins have been reviewed & updated as much as I can today and over the past days and weeks. As always I suggest you edit as you see fit, liberally use the force in/out features and don't sweat
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For those of you trying to get a sense of what a good rank is right now the median Elite 1000 manager is ranked ~940k
The median Elite64 manager is 980k and the median contributors to the two biggest
#FPL
sites are ~1.2M
~1M is good relative to obsessed managers
#FPLCommunity
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Currently very little in going for a Salah/Haaland/neither draft based on the Massive Data model & solvers evaluation- the difference in evaluation between all 3 could be interpreted as within the margin of noise
Have to be careful not to over-read into what is "optimal"
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🏆FPL Review Data Based Champion 21/22🏆
The scan of the top 500k
#FPL
teams is complete! This means top managers based on
@fplreview
modelling can be announced
If you finished top 500k you can find your team here (use ctrl+f):
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🤖The Massive Data Projection Model has gone live🤖
This is a Machine Learning model that contextualises player underlying data to project goals & FPL assists
Testing confirms it comfortably outpredicts bookies goalscorer odds🎯
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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The full model will be going live a few weeks before the season start (late July)- I've decided to hold off on releasing a preliminary model this year so the full release can be prioritised & allow users plenty of time to plan with it
A few significant upgrades on the way!
#FPL
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Really excited about coding in whatever unknown changes FPL are making next week
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Future Double GW probability modelling capabilities have been added to 🔥
- GW21 & GW22 probabilities have been applied based on the great info
@BenCrellin
has put out there
- User control of fixture schedule likelihood on the way
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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FH29 will probably look something like this. Not the most exciting team in the world, but will probably be a popular play
Post FA Cup fixture likelihoods have been updated on the site
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Just released a significant xMins process upgrade which has been developed over the past 6 weeks
- More refined model & increased human control
- Return of the HiveMind
- Accumulated YC bans incorporated
- Improved future injury modelling
- Auto detect parent-club
#FPL
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users lives are becoming a little easier- suggested transfers/WCs can now be applied with one click, along with a set of upgrades
⚡️Apply Suggestions
🎰 Diversify GK/DFs
⌨️ Renamable drafts
➕ Expanded Transfer Suggestions
🔀 Primary/standby GK logic
#FPL
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15 of the Elite 1000 have yet to take a hit this season. The average Elite manager has taken ~24pts of hits
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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Current EV may slightly prefer Mo, but be careful not to over-read confidence from small differences, in terms of who ends up with more points it's more or less a coin flip (sims below)
Exposure & personal preference should be the big decision driver between the two
#FPL
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The Season Review tool is back live with a few new features,
🔥Instant Updates & Live Ranks
🎲Introduction of Relative Risk Concept
⏱️HiveMind xMins Used for EV Data
👀Elite Doppelgänger Detection
📊Improved Visualisations
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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Just noticed the account has somehow reached 10k followers!
Huge thank you to
#FPLCommunity
, this project would never have progressed far without the thoughtful questions, feedback & alternative perspectives found here
Still have plenty of ideas, so lots more to come hopefully!
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~5% of Elite 1000 managers have made transfers with 15 seconds or less to go
Incredible trust in FPLs servers
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🏆FPL Review Data Based Champions 22/23🏆
The scan of the top 500k
#FPL
teams is complete! This means top managers based on
@fplreview
modelling can be announced. The top 250 in each rank are displayed per tab
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It's been about two years since I last put together a write up, this was a fun analysis to carry out and long overdue!
Ultimate Truth: How FPL Models Perform Relative to a “Perfect” Model
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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A few interesting averaged match level perspectives from the user xMin HiveMind prior to the GW36 headache
Robertson 79+38 = 117xMins
James 73+33 = 106xMins
Mount 81+47 = 128xMins
Foden 53+75 = 128xMins
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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A significant development for users
Linear optimisation has now been added to planner toolset! This comes in addition to the existing non-linear solver
Those familiar with the FPL problem in linear optimisation might notice that this Javascript
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Pre-season updates for fplreview users,
A free access preliminary model will go live in the days following the launch of FPL
The premium model & new upgrades will go live ~1st Aug
Annual membership will not auto-renew to ensure only active users of the service are paying
#FPL
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Due to running costs and significant time investment will have to start generating some of revenue as of next season. This may include ads and premium only content/tools
For the beginning of 20/21 all features will remain free to use
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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All Machine Learning models & classical statistical models retrained for 21/22 for both predictive data and in house xG data✅
Intention to go live on the 3rd of August- still lots to be done to achieve that, starting to get excited though
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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Sensitivity Analysis is the latest addition to the toolset, providing broad & granular insights from the solver
In this thread, I'll go through:
- What is Sensitivity Analysis?
- Why & Where it holds value
- Explanation of Noise Injection
- Special Notes
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Looking like there's about ~20 hours of tasks to have things completely ready for launch
Probably 50/50 for tomorrow depending if I'm able to stay awake, definitely will be ready on Monday regardless
#FPL
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📊Elite 1000 Selection Data
#GW1
📊
Selection data from the games 1,000 most highly rated managers, such as
@MagnusCarlsen
,
@LetsTalk_FPL
,
@FFH_Will
,
@FFScout_Mark
and
@FPL_Salah
Captaincy and Selection Data below👇
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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The Season Review tool is back up and running!
- As announced at the start if the season EV scores will be based on minutes played
- Most features are back, xG rank will come back soon- just requires some rewiring
- Congrats to those that made the Elite 1000 sample this season🍾
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🏆FPL Review Data Based Champions 23/24🏆
The Season Review is back live following GW38! Lets take a look at the managers who topped each metric in the thread below
Note that within the tool the top few thousand should be exact, with ranks outside of that closely estimated
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To help with all the questions on solver settings, I have created a glossary that goes into some high-level information on each setting
#FPL
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Today marks the end to analysis of the 20/21 Season for as attention diverts to 21/22
I'd like to thank
#FPLCommunity
for the support/feedback over the year! In particular the analytics niche, who continue to drive this part of the game forward
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This is what the TotW based on the MD model sits at for GW5 with a bank of £100M, strong enough S1 reflecting the risk of rotation mid-week
#FPL
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Lot's of very interesting marginal decisions to be made for anyone playing FH. Basically meaningless EV differences between the top selection and hundreds of other variations so not a time to get too caught up with sticking rigidly to the top solve at the expense of preference
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The Ross Barkley avatar just dropped, hope his crazed eyes don't haunt your dreams
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@LazyFPL
I'd say it's worth including that stat of how many times it's been right/wrong as part of the leak and it's up to managers to decide what to do. All part of the risk of trying to find an edge in information
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If
#FPL
had a £75M budget, this is the kind of WC9 squad the solver is outputting
Mitrovic is basically Haaland in poverty FPL
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GW21 Elite 1000 stats
- 801 of 985 Saka owners have him captained
- Palmer is next in line, captained by 135 of 972
- Foden (+430), Richarlison(+285) & Estupinan (+246) were the most popular transfers in
- Son (-704), Salah (-369) and TAA(-125) were the most popular
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This histogram illustrates how much noise exists in feedback from mathematically 'perfect' xG model over 450 minutes for a player with a known threat level of 0.30G90
Over 5 games we would more often than not get a heavy misread (never mind 2 games!)
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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For those wondering if models can figure out that GW38 is typically more high-scoring- this is the highest projected average goals per game this season at 3.07
#FPL
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I've taken the site down for the evening to do some work, things got a bit congested in the past hour or so. Had not anticipated the level of interest at this point, but a good stress test for some new implementations.
Apologies for any inconvenience
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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You can now duplicate drafts, this was a bit overdue but should come in handy for heavy duty planners
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How Accurately Does xG Data Indicate Player Goalscoring Potential?📊⚽
An extensive analysis using 18/19 xG data and a 100k match simulator to estimate what kind of precision we can expect using this data to evaluate players
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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For the first time total consensus has been reached by the Elite 1000, all 1000 now own Mo Salah
783 set him as captain this GW, 158 have gone for Kai Havertz
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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How is your season going? Feel like you've been unlucky? Try out the Season Review tool which compares xG data and bookmaker forecasts against your actual FPL Performance to determine your expected performance to date 📈🍀
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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You can now sync your live team with the Massive Data Planner without the use of FPL credentials
This allows early transfers and related price changes to be detected and should also be valuable for those playing WC/FH
#FPL
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Currently I'd estimate that somewhere between ~2-3M of the FPL userbase who signed up in GW1 can be considered active managers (depending on what you consider inactivity)
~7.8M managers signed up in GW1
#FPL
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Finished writing an Introductory guide to using EV (Expected Value) concepts in FPL last night
This is a more accessible guide than my past technical posts and touches on 'relative risk' ideas too
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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A bit of good news outside of FPL, after 7 years in the field I'm officially a Chartered Engineer🎉🤓😁
#FPLCommunity
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In 20/21
@Hashtag_MEGA
finished 1st in the MD rankings, despite a cursed season where he finished ~290k
In 21/22 he finished 186th in the world
Currently he sits 566th
The season review tool was built to provide cleaner feedback & help managers avoid binning good strategy
#FPL
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A couple of small additions to the planner as of last night
- "Delete xMin Inputs" button added. This will clear all past xMin/availability inputs, and let you work from defaults again
-"Unsync Live Team" button added. If you have synced your live FPL team, this can now undo
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The BGW31 fixtures have just been confirmed. Here are the top players in each position according to the FPL Review algorithm. There are a few differentials to be found though Liverpool dominate. All data sourced from the FPL Review Team Planner
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
#GW27
#BGW31
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Decided to take a look back through the past planner interfaces as the site developed over time
#FPL
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A few upgrades applied overnight
- Wildcard/Freehit solves are enabled
- Solver Speed has been added for accelerated/heavier solves
- The solver can function as a more powerful version of the previous GW by GW solver, as a hybrid approach or as a pure multi-period solver
#FPL
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Season review/Gameweek review will be back for GW3
Will get the Elite 1000 page back up over the weekend, and close out some work on the new solver over the next week- I am however taking this evening and tomorrow off 😅
Best of luck all
#FPL
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I put together a glossary for the Season Review tool, which can be found via the "Site Help" dropdown.
This has been pretty quickly put together so isn't exhaustive or getting too stuck in the weeds, but should be helpful
Season Review Glossary:
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@LetsTalk_FPL
Not to mention that it wasn't close to a yellow card challenge, but yes- this is the magic of FPL
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Avoiding the Noise📉
The most common mishandling of stats within
#FPLCommunity
is an over-attention to short term variance filled (noisy) information
In this thread I analyse why so many jumped the gun in terms of Covid & Home Advantage and how to handle similar situations
#FPL
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The Free Model Planner is up and running once more!
The page has merged into the format of the premium planner, with a couple of changes- I have decided to trial a horizon of 3GWs allowing up to 3GW deep multi-period solves
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The Market Odds Planner is finally back for premium users on !
You can also inject a weighting (0%-100%) of the Market data into the Massive Data Planner, without reloading the page- this allows you to hedge between both models as preferred
#FPL
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The median Elite 1000 manager is currently ranked ~98k
Last season by Jan 25th the median rank was ~212k
My estimate is that the Elite sample this year is about ~15GWs ahead of schedule
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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🏆FPL Review Data Based Champion 19/20🏆
The scan of the top 100k
#FPL
teams is complete! This means best managers in the world based on fplreview modelling of the season can be announced
If you finished top 100k you can find your team here (use ctrl+f):
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Huge week for Saka captaincy 🔥
Harsh punishment on the Kane pick and Toney punt though, but have to enjoy the rewards from the variance gods when they come
#FPL
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