Jan Zilinsky
@janzilinsky
Followers
5,895
Following
1,235
Media
3,750
Statuses
25,430
Tech, politics & economics. Ex- @PIIE , @NYUniversity , now @TU_Muenchen . Current research: governance of online platforms, views on AI, and contentious politics.
Munich, Germany
Joined March 2010
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#KawalPutusanMK
• 4058074 Tweets
#TolakPolitikDinasti
• 2484762 Tweets
#TolakPilkadaAkal2an
• 2330243 Tweets
FB JOIN OPENING BTV HOUSE
• 677127 Tweets
BATALKAN BUKAN TUNDA
• 515063 Tweets
Polisi
• 432149 Tweets
Mulyono
• 292577 Tweets
#NHK_MUSICEXPO
• 209493 Tweets
FOTFOT NEW SINGLE
• 202019 Tweets
RIIZE
• 145623 Tweets
South Africans
• 105477 Tweets
Kompas
• 74567 Tweets
#GOATなINZM
• 47340 Tweets
チャイルドシート
• 42196 Tweets
BGYO TRASH OUT NOW
• 33680 Tweets
Phantom
• 33563 Tweets
サヨナラ
• 19071 Tweets
ドラゴンズ
• 17553 Tweets
ダンスメドレー
• 17545 Tweets
ちいかわ寿司
• 16707 Tweets
オリックス
• 16386 Tweets
勝ち越し
• 16226 Tweets
Pretender
• 14190 Tweets
Siren
• 14010 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
*New paper * in
@polcommjournal
:
What matters more for believing disinformation: social media use, political views, or a conspiracy mindset?
First, some good news: in most places, only a minority “fell” for the debunked claims which were used to justify invading Ukraine. 🧵↓
11
101
257
I am looking through latest OECD data, and I have to say again: what has been happening in Greece and Spain is incredible:
108
2K
1K
Exciting news
For too long researchers have had to reply on *years of schooling* as a measure of "education".
We all knew those metrics could be misleading without adjusting for quality. We used them anyway.
We no longer have to - there is now a database measuring learning
20
383
1K
Murders in NYC
1990: 2,262
2001: 649
2016: 330
2017, as of April 16: 74
29
223
354
A question that came up about the FT chart was whether the ideological gender gap replicates in other datasets (
@EconTraina
looked at GSS, as also suggested by
@paulnovosad
).
Here's a plot w/ CES data (thanks
@shirokuriwaki
!)
cc:
@_alice_evans
@arindube
@SEAsheltie
@rnishimura
4
42
231
Claim: there is a huge ideological divide between men and women.
I'll let you decide:
- Do women and men disagree *on the issues*?
- Do young people in the left panel look so different?
23
47
207
Share of EJMR posts from the University of Chicago:
47x larger than posts from MIT.
A quip about revealed preferences isn’t even needed, right?
5
20
180
Some stats about Italy
- its population shrank 4 years in a row
- live births decreased by 128,000 relative to 2008
- the number of people aged 65 and over has increased by 560,000 since 2015
- 160,000 Italians moved abroad in 2018
11
85
157
There seems to be no country where people underestimate the number of immigrants
13
340
147
A Slovak hotel explains how it finances its repairs
Bank loan: 100,000 euros
Bribes: 0 euros
http://t.co/CtFdamzhYY
3
118
132
.
@DianeCoyle1859
's idea deserves more attention:
The suggestion is to have a publicly funded international AI research organization modeled after CERN to bring diversity to the existing corporate incentives
3
35
114
Financial crises are no joke: the earnings of low-income people have eroded by more than 10% since 2007. More here:
6
164
106
A MILESTONE: Honored to have defended my dissertation at NYU
Many thanks to my mentors:
@Jonathan_Nagler
the eagle-eyed Chair & guide,
@j_a_tucker
who welcomed me to the department & worked w/ me, public opinion guru Pat Egan, the brilliant
@hyeyoungyou
& my fav. Yalie Neal Beck
30
1
110
Across age groups, men are more conservative than women in the U.S.
The difference is 0.15 SD among the youngest cohort.
That's a slightly larger gap compared to the oldest age group but I still wouldn't call this "polarization"
9
8
92
With the detailed, amazingly frequent Nationscape surveys we can look at so many social and political dynamics
Here's the sexism penalty against
@ewarren
since mid-2019
The attitude reduces the probability of having a favorable impression of Warren by 5-15 p.p.
cc:
@b_schaffner
7
51
90
In 1981 almost one third (29%) of the non-Chinese world population was living in extreme poverty. Latest data: 12%.
Every time I show decline of poverty globally someone comments ‘this is only because of China!’.
Is it?
New post:
15
243
224
1
95
87
The average person in Greece has lost 1/2 of his or her income since 2007. The poor have lost even more...
I am looking through latest OECD data, and I have to say again: what has been happening in Greece and Spain is incredible:
108
2K
1K
6
172
85
“If you're not raising wages, then it just sounds like whining” - A Fed president about the 'skill shortage'
1
59
79
@ewarren
@b_schaffner
@AOC
@vavreck
@CTausanovitch
@DemocracyFund
Here's a look at ideological (issue-based) clusters in American politics today:
Cultural conservatives are generally but not always Republicans
The vast majority of Democrats are economic progressives but their views on social issues pull some of these voters toward the center
7
26
78
China's economy is now almost 26 times larger than it was in 1980:
6
130
78
Here is Northern Europe. Note:
1. Not adopting the euro does not save you, Denmark
2. Workers at the top often do better even in this region
21
88
78
Mapping political parties' positions on the Ukraine war
Many 🇺🇦 supporters are socially progressive and economically right-leaning
Opponents to aiding Ukr. tend to be on the econ left & cultural right
Data:
@ches_data
Code:
cc:
@medzihorsky
@PippaN15
3
30
78
I always appreciated the Laibson/Shleifer/Thaler/Sunstein approach:
1. Decision-makers try their best.
2. Even if you “trick” people (e.g. make them violate IIA) that’s not a perfect litmus test.
3. But the classical model is too extreme (agents are too selfish/patient/willful)
In many places,
@R_Thaler
& I avoid claiming that people are "irrational." We often say that it is both false and not very nice to say that. Better to say that people are "boundedly rational." As we say in Nudge, “we do not think that people are dumb; we think the world is hard.”
27
93
478
2
9
70
1/ Some thoughts on gender biases in academia, following up on
@JustinWolfers
' article / Alice Wu's findings on sexist expressions on EJMR
1
58
66
Larry Bartels reported *before the election* that 4 in 10 Republicans agreed that “a time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands”
1/n
4
44
65
Obama agrees the
@davidshor
interview was worth a read.
Lots to think about & check.
Shor: "places where a lot of voters have Venezuelan or Colombian ancestry saw much larger swings to the GOP than basically anywhere else"
Is socialism a toxic brand among them? Let's see:
The Biden administration’s commitment to democratic values at home and abroad couldn’t be more important—because democracy remains at risk around the world:
689
2K
15K
2
7
64
France and Germany seem to be doing something right.
Without banning smartphones, or social media, or video-democratizing apps like TikTok.
9
24
64
@ryanburge
Thanks Ryan, yes that seems to match the top-left panel here
A question that came up about the FT chart was whether the ideological gender gap replicates in other datasets (
@EconTraina
looked at GSS, as also suggested by
@paulnovosad
).
Here's a plot w/ CES data (thanks
@shirokuriwaki
!)
cc:
@_alice_evans
@arindube
@SEAsheltie
@rnishimura
4
42
231
2
2
55
This is very very hard for people to accept.
In late 2000s a deep dive by
@BetseyStevenson
and
@JustinWolfers
convinced some skeptics which took a lot of work but… denialism persists (see some of the replies to
@DinaPomeranz
)
There is a persistent myth of "the happy poor". It's just that: a myth.
While happiness and life satisfaction are of course driven by many other things as well, people in poor countries are on average much more unhappy. Economic growth matters.
138
1K
4K
2
12
56
Inflation is a global phenomenon.
Biden-blaming a local manifestation.
1
20
58
WSJ editor asks CEOs to raise hands if they'll invest more if the tax reform goes through.
You'll probably believe what happened next:
1. Tax-overhaul backers say corporate rate cut will encourage investment by businesses
2. During
#wsjceocouncil
interview with Gary Cohn, WSJ asks CEOs to raise hands if they'll boost investment if rates cut
3. Few CEOS raise hands
4. Cohn asks: "Why aren't the other hands up?"
264
2K
2K
3
42
54
A very sensible prediction
2018 is going to be the year of the "How Democracy Is Dying But If You Buy My Book You Can Save It" books.
#newgenre
#OutrageIndustry
3
47
141
2
11
50
🚨It’s starting to feel real!
I am thrilled & grateful to be starting my postdoc at
@TU_Muenchen
.
With in-person collaboration (& life in general) gradually resuming, I can’t wait to work on technology+politics with
@Yannis_Theo
,
@FranziskaPradel
, and the rest of the team here!
4
2
53
The global Gini coefficient dropped by 15 points since 1970.
This means the earnings share of the world's poorest half of the population has doubled:
2
22
50
One question is how much self-reported labels tell us about people's politics.
I'd say an almost-ideal data source here has to be Nationscape (thank you
@vavreck
@CTausanovitch
)
Women have become more liberal over the past decade. Men... not so much.
Great piece by
@jburnmurdoch
, feat.
@_alice_evans
17
84
291
6
6
50
In the three months before the election, anti-Clinton fake articles were shared ~30 million times on Facebook
3
52
49
Harvard economist: undergraduates today seem to take pride in doing too much
0
17
47
Piketty: Atkinson showed that "economics is first and foremost a social and moral science"
2
56
47
- The Science of Politics (
@MattGrossmann
)
- EconTalk (
@EconTalker
)
- The Remnant (
@JonahRemnant
)
- Conversations with
@tylercowen
Podcasts I listen to regularly:
- OddLots
- Densely Speaking
- Hardcore History
- Revolutions
- Ezra Klein
- Seen and Unseen
- Conversations with Tyler
- Ideas of India
Any others you'd recommend?
122
47
674
4
6
46
Boarding my flight to
#ASSA2017
in 1/2 hour, and now feel like I need to show that workers are seeing income growth at least in some places:
3
40
45
“by the early to mid 1990s, some of the early excitement surrounding mRNA was beginning to fade ... her bosses at UPenn felt mRNA had shown itself to be impractical ... if she wanted to continue working with mRNA she would lose her faculty position”
3
24
46
Greece is the only EU country where a majority of people do not feel like they are citizens of the union. [And I think we know why]
5
67
43
Given how underrated diversity of opinion is, this is an important thread ↘️
0
30
43
Hard to know where to start, as this facsinating article brings to light so many thorny economic issues. A must-read piece. 1/N
4
18
45
Researchers increasingly use better (but publicly unavailable) data
3
22
41
Fauci says: "[J&J is] 72% effective in preventing you from getting moderate to severe disease".
🚨Many will think that means there's a 28% chance of getting sick. That's not true!
72% is the *reduction* in risk.
The risk of catching COVID would be about 0.34%.
cc:
@zeynep
On Saturday, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine. Dr. Fauci sat down to answer your questions.
966
3K
16K
1
18
42
.
@JonHaidt
: identity politics is like throwing sand in the gears of a functioning multiethnic society
#postmortem
4
21
36
People in the middle of the income distribution receive *more* support from the government than the bottom 40%
8
41
38
Slovakia’s new prime minister appeared in a televised debate and the presenter asked him to put on a mask to set an example.
Mask-wearing was normalized immediately.
The rest is history: cc:
@BrankoMilan
3
17
38
How wrong are stereotypes?
If people of the same class, age, or ethnicity vote alike, their actions should be easy infer from observable traits.
@sysilviakim
& I study how much different types of data reveal about voters’ preferences. Hope to see you at
#PolmethEurope
soon!
3
8
40
Fact of the day: China produces more than Euro area countries + Japan combined (in PPP terms)
0
44
36
When GDP growth was 4.6% in mid-2014,
@JustinWolfers
used the report as a case study of what not to do:
Wow! 4.5% is awesome. I remember when the “Experts” laughed when
@realDonaldTrump
said we could get there. They said we couldn’t even hit 3%. I don’t think Obama ever broke 2%. DJT’s policies are working overtime for America.
4K
5K
14K
1
9
36
"Why did Roman civilisation, which contained many elements of modern capitalist and market economy, not develop straight into a commercial capitalism of the medieval Florentine type?"
Schiavone’s answer: slavery made creativity & further development insufficiently profitable.
2
21
34
I would just like to pre-register my hypothesis that the 4th item will explain some political outcomes even better than ideology:
5
10
35
The average American spends about 20 years in retirement; in 1950, it was about 4 years
3
17
33
.
@jenniferdoleac
’s research “is more credible because it’s done by someone who we know publishes her findings regardless of which way they come out”
0
4
36
A 1% redistribution of net wealth to the bottom 50% could close the output gap in Europe (slides from Jan Mischke)
2
30
36
1
12
34
.
@BrankoMilan
: The concentration of wealth and income from property has remained at about 90 Gini points or more since the 1970s. Debates about the capital share would be quite different if we had policies to reduce capital concentration - here's a list:
1
16
31
If you sometimes suspect that
- the hypodermic needle model of opinion change is wrong
- foreign threats on social media are overrated
- scapegoating external forces for domestic problems is counterproductive
We have a new paper paper for you See 🧵👇
📢📣 We've got a new paper out from
@CSMaP_NYU
today in
@NatureComms
📢
Russia's foreign influence campaign on Twitter in 2016 caused widespread concern. But who was exposed? How effective was it? 🧵👇
1/
3
88
233
4
6
31
My answer to What are some of the best books on behavioral economics?
http://t.co/vTwYcWzzR2
1
24
32
.
@pdacosta
: Many economists perpetuate the skills gap notion by regurgitating the complaints of business executives
2
20
29
Ignatieff to academics: our doors must always be open to the public
1
22
30
A recipe for recession: fast growth of household debt
http://t.co/lLRu72uh3g
http://t.co/p04PkaEoZe
4
37
30
2
20
30
Being outdoors is mostly safe.
Caveats: face coverings, density of people, and communication styles still matter.
0
14
30
Well-written, persuasive, and dismaying article from
@Noahpinion
The Wrong Kind of Entrepreneurs Flourish in America - Bloomberg
3
12
16
0
9
30
A great Goethe quote: "misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice"
0
29
29
"the rejection of the opposing party, has now become a kind of tribal identity that shapes how people define themselves and others"
2
19
27
“Modern 21st century economies thrive on connections, trade, and exchanges between people and ideas.”
2
9
27
The lure of blockchain payment platforms was supposed to be the lack of government involvement 🤷
7
10
27
Must-read: Why trade unions, mass education, high taxes, and large government transfers are not what they used to be
My recent post:
Why 20th century tools cannot be used to address 21st century income inequality?
3
32
46
2
22
29
Suspicious of hand-picked tweets about politics?
You'll love this new tool from
@aasiegel
.
Over 58K tweets from legislators were collected, coded, and visualized here:
@ImmigrationLab
@CSMaP_NYU
Thanks also to
@JuliaAngwin
@themarkup
&
@ZeveSanderson
!
0
7
28
Stunning dispersion of management practices across plants. Surveys show: 40% of variation across plants is *within the same firm* 💼
Here's my new paper with Nick Bloom,
@johnvanreenen
, and others using a huge new dataset on management practices
0
29
56
0
26
28
Strange fact of the day:
@JeffFlake
tweets links to CNN nearly 4 times more often than links to Fox News.
He circulates stories from many centrist sources, but usually votes as a hardliner. See our research here:
@monkeycageblog
@SMaPP_NYU
5
23
26
"18 percent of American workers are currently constrained by noncompete clauses" -- now including warehouse and fast-food workers & others
4
33
27
“From earthquakes to wars to financial crises, the major disruptions in history have been characterized by random or power-law distributions. They belong in the domain of uncertainty, not risk.” -
@nfergus
1
8
26
The economic situation is bad
Germany: 10% of respondents
UK: 40%
Italy: 86%
Greece: near-universal answer (97%)
2
53
25
A fantastic paper.
So much we could do w/ its method to better understand political communication and spin.
For instance, I tried their approach and found that when Dems speak about parenthood they tie it to economics.
Republicans are (rhetorically) big on "parental rights".
@prodriguezsosa
,
@arthur_spirling
, &
@b_m_stewart
introduce the à la carte on text embedding regression model, conText in this
#APSRFirstView
. ConText uses a flexible approach to analyze differences between group semantics and over time.
3
26
92
0
1
25
Love the title, nicely done.
Would be great if more social scientists, like
@Sacha_Altay
&
@acerbialberto
, studied alarmism.
Hat tip to:
@cphoffmann
Paper here:
3
4
26
.
@BaldwinRE
: China+India share of world GDP was stable from year 1000 to 1820. Then it collapsed, now climbing back:
4
34
25
China's economy is now almost 26 times larger than it was in 1980:
8
45
20
.
@nfergus
on our current era: The cultural aspects / backlash are what makes Trump popular & what made Brexit happen
Thoughts on the politics of populism and US foreign policy under Trump - Nikkei Asian Review
12
75
123
1
2
17
.
@CarolineFreund
: Inheriting money does little to stimulate growth, yet the US exempts the first $5.4M from taxation
6
21
21
.
@rodrikdani
says progressives "have lost the war of ideas – on government as a force for good" & data support that
A major trust deficit: Most Americans think "government is almost always wasteful" and even more people disapprove of Congress
1
5
7
1
26
23
“While Rodrik is right about tensions in the global system... [t]echnology, trade, and demand shifts all reduced the need for low-skilled workers in advanced economies, while deregulation reduced workers’ bargaining power.” -
@CarolineFreund
0
10
21
What
@A_agadjanian
did with partisanship some time ago -- not stopping with a single survey -- would be informative for ideology too
Examining political gender gaps sometimes obscures which gender is driving trends (). E.g. w/party ID, a few surveys have shown recently increasing gender gap (Pew, Gallup, GSS). Here, men have been stable while women have been moving most (more D, less R)
0
1
17
0
3
22