David Shor
@davidshor
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Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹
New York, NY
Joined November 2007
@Spatch1003 Here's a quick pass of my positive and negative surprises from the last five years. I think on net I'm a little more optimistic about the future than I was in 2015 but not by very much.
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Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.
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@OwenWntr Wouldn't be surprised if the "true" number is somewhat lower but I think most "gold standard" polling methods would considerably underestimate things. In general these big SES/political engagement confounds are a giant issue for polling young people.
The other thing I'd say here is that a lot of the big predictors of reporting negative attitudes of Jews - low political engagement, low socioeconomic status, low agreeableness in psychometric questions - all are things that are very correlated with responding to phone surveys. So if you only looked at non-opt-in data you'd really be missing a lot!
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@haroldpollack @CarMarinkovic @mattyglesias Precise wording was in the image, four point likert + a don’t know
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I don't see why you think this is too smooth? Two things here: 1) 130k ids cuts down on sampling error a lot. 2) the p's here are pretty far from 0.5 so the sqrt(p*(1-p)/n) thing is going to help a lot. The age year with the highest se here, 18 year olds, still has sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)=1.4%
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@JamesHCohen The annoying thing about the antisemitism debate is that it features highly ideological people on the left and right try to blame it on each other when the bulk of the problem is folks who don't care much about politics at all.
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We do pretty aggressive data quality filtering in our surveys (we throw away ~40% of the online ids we collect to give you a sense of scale). The other important piece here is that these are folks whose user-provided PII matched to a voter file, which also does *a lot* to filter out low quality/troll responses. On top of that the observed factor structure with other elements of the ADL antisemetism index were quite similar among young and older voters which wouldn't be the case if there was significant attenuation.
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@DavidSharp84 @mapeslover69 @bill_israel @GregEqEd I think you literally did not understand what I said here. The most antisemitic people are neither on the right nor the left.
@DavidSharp84 @mapeslover69 @bill_israel @GregEqEd The "anti-Israel left" (IE, the social group that would describe themselves that way) is at most like 1% of young voters. Antisemitism is concentrated among low education/low political engagement/low agreeableness folks who don't have much of a voice.
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@DavidSharp84 @mapeslover69 @bill_israel @GregEqEd Nobody is talking about anti-Israel voters except for you.
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@PunishedLuddite Very favorable/somewhat favorable/somewhat unfavorable/very unfavorable/don't know [though I marginalized out don't know in this plot]
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@DavidSharp84 @mapeslover69 @bill_israel @GregEqEd The "anti-Israel left" (IE, the social group that would describe themselves that way) is at most like 1% of young voters. Antisemitism is concentrated among low education/low political engagement/low agreeableness folks who don't have much of a voice.
The other thing I'd say here is that a lot of the big predictors of reporting negative attitudes of Jews - low political engagement, low socioeconomic status, low agreeableness in psychometric questions - all are things that are very correlated with responding to phone surveys. So if you only looked at non-opt-in data you'd really be missing a lot!
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