The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
Given Trump's proposed mass deportations, tariffs, & Fed independence erosion, by 2028, US consumer prices would generally be 20-28% higher & inflation rate would settle 2 percentage points above baseline, to be almost 4%, from 2034 through 2040.
Read:
Trump HAS gotten China to lower its tariffs...on everyone else. China has increased tariffs on US exports to an average 20.7%. But China has also *reduced* tariffs on competing products imported from everyone else to an average of only 6.7%.
NEW: Former President Trump recently mused that he might impose even higher tariffs than earlier proposed.
A 20% across-the-board tariff + 60% tariff on China would cost a typical US household more than $2,600 a year, up from the $1,700 if it was 10%.
#PIIECharts
Since the enactment of the CHIPS Act, the US has been on track to add more construction for computer & electronics manufacturing in 2024 alone than it did during the 20 years before the Act.
#PIIECharts
Learn more:
US special protection covers 50.6% of all US imports from China. If Trump follows through on his latest threat of 25% tariffs on $300 billion of imports, US special protection will cover *96.7%* of US imports from China. By
@ChadBown
&
@EvaYZhang
:
Whatever President Trump may have said about guarding national security or creating steel jobs, the tariffs were never about military strength or American workers. Their purpose was to enrich steel firms. They succeeded—but at an exorbitant price.
Trump’s tariffs resulted in a sharp decline in US imports from China of many of critical medical products needed to fight
#COVID19
between 2017 and 2019.
New PIIE analysis shows if Trump moves forward with his proposed tariffs on imported autos and parts, 195,000 US workers would lose their jobs and the American auto industry would shed nearly 2% of its workforce.
In comparison to the US & eurozone,
@AdamPosen
says the UK is suffering the additional problems of Brexit, a loss of credibility of economic governance, & the legacy of under-investment in public health & transport services.
“It’s not good."
Since the start of President Trump's trade war, China has retaliated against US tariffs by raising tariffs on US goods. Less well known is that China has also been lowering rates for everyone else.
#PIIECharts
We are once again reminding you that tariffs are taxes & Trump's proposed 20% across-the-board tariff plus 60% on imports from China would cost a typical household over $2,600 per year.
#PIIECharts
Details:
NEW: Globalization has been a big topic in the news lately. But what IS globalization? How does it actually affect American businesses, workers, and consumers? Find out in our guide that explains all sides of this complicated topic.
The idea that making everything domestically builds resiliency is what
@AdamPosen
calls "the fallacy of self-sufficiency" & it has repeatedly been disproven. It is having diversified supply chains—including geographically—that builds resilience.
Read more:
We are excited to announce Cecilia Malmström (
@MalmstromEU
) is joining the Peterson Institute as a Nonresident Senior Fellow! Cecilia will also be a host of our virtual discussion series Trade Winds. Welcome Cecilia! 🎉 📈
12/
@PIIE
strives to provide rigorous, intellectually honest, nonpartisan research. We post our data so results can be replicated. We maintain independence from funders, who are disclosed & have no say in results. Happy to stand on our record & debate
@SecretaryRoss
on the facts.
2/ Here is the PIIE study
@ErinBurnett
referenced on
@CNN
showing that a past US tariff on Chinese tires saved 1,200 jobs, but cost 3,700 retail jobs. US consumers paid $900,000 per job saved. Data calculations available for replication.
Here is the market response. US & Chinese stocks tend to move in the same direction following
@realDonaldTrump
’s China-trade-related tweets, suggesting the trade war is not zero-sum (good for US, bad for China)
@ojblanchard1
@PIIE
International economic policymaking is complicated.
To help you understand, we put together this (noncomprehensive) map showing the relationship between some US & EU government bodies & international institutions.
Details & glossary:
We know you've been waiting for it,
#EconTwitter
, and here it is: Larry Summers, Emmanuel Saez, and Greg Mankiw discussing wealth taxes.
#Inequality2019
The global semiconductor production system is complex, integrated, & difficult to disentangle. Each of the five major global semiconductor producers—China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, & the US—is also a large chip importer.
#PIIECharts
Learn more:
The drop in federal R&D funding is one of the key drivers behind declines in US productivity growth,
@baselinescene
tells
@WSJ
. Overall federal R&D spending, at 0.7% of GDP, is roughly half what it was in the mid-1980s.
3/ WTO rules allow tariffs in select cases. US protections already exist for steel—it’s why only 3% of US steel imports are from China. The new tariffs will raise costs for US auto, other manufacturers, where 40x more Americans work than in steel mills.
4/ Tariffs are no free lunch. US will lose market share in autos and manufactures, raise prices for our consumers, and other countries may retaliate, destroying other jobs. Instead, the US should mobilize allies to pressure China to reform.
7/ Bigger question: Why is Trump Admin using bilateral surpluses as measure of success? Normal in trade to have deficits w/ some countries. Trade deficits go up in good economic times. Mexico’s surplus in ’94-’95 grew as its economy crashed. Not worth it.
10) He did say that
@PIIE
, we are “dyed in the wool free traders.” That much is true. And we are proud of it.
#dyedinthewoolfreetrader
because it works.
6/ But we got main forecast right. US gains big on net from
#NAFTA
from growing two-way trade. N. America more competitive globally. Auto sector gained from regional supply chains, agriculture grew, migration fell, Mexican energy sector developed.
Good morning Twitter. Remember that an annualized rate means the economy would be growing by 33.1% if it was growing at the same rate for four quarters.
But since that's not happening, the 2020 Q3 economy grew by about 7.4% compared to 2020 Q2.
NEW: Economic inequality is bad. This just-published feature explains what drives inequality & how government policy left millions vulnerable to COVID-19, but also how policy, done right, can mitigate the growing gap between the rich & the poor.
With respect, Senator Hawley, the claims you made in the original op-ed and in this thread are misleading. The WTO isn’t perfect, but there are lots of ways to make the global trading system better without abandoning the system entirely. Our own thread...
THREAD/ A few points in response. 1. My basic claim is that to confront
#China
economic imperialism & protect American security & Econ interests, the international system must be reformed. That includes the global economic system.
NEW: Presidential candidate Trump's proposals would reduce US reliance on income taxes while increasing reliance on import tariffs. Lower- & middle-income Americans would shoulder increased tax burdens; only upper-income earners would experience net tax cuts.
#PIIECharts
Americans’ misplaced optimism about social mobility makes them less likely to support tax and spending programs to help the poor,
@S_Stantcheva
finds. Watch here:
10/ Since WWII, US has led global rules-based economic system that’s fostered prosperity, prevented trade wars, let alone military conflict. Study after study shows the benefits of the system for all parties. The US is leader with benefits, not victim.
.
@AdamPosen
responded to a letter from
@SenWarren
, writing that "leaving the post of Vice Chair for Supervision unoccupied presents real & present risks to financial stability & therefore the economic well-being of all Americans." 👇
Economic Experts: Rapid Confirmation of Fed Vice Chair for Supervision is Key to Preserving Financial Stability
I am one of those. Given high inflation, rising rates, Russian threats, and fintech, delaying the appointment puts the US economy in danger
NEW: The US has decreased its dependence on China for all types of imported manufactured goods since 2018. The EU & China, however, have maintained or increased their reliance on each other for almost all types of imported goods.
Read more:
11/ Technology far bigger factor than trade in which jobs are created/lost, so must prepare ALL workers for the future—not just give handouts to special interests. Investment, retraining, tax credits will help workers succeed. 95% of world’s potential customers live outside US.
WEDNESDAY: Dr. Agustín Carstens, general manager of
@BIS_org
, speaks on next steps for central bank digital currencies (
#CBDC
) & what they could mean for users & financial institutions.
Register here:
More macroeconomic events here:
5/ Yes, PIIE forecast for trade surplus following
#NAFTA
was wrong because we did not foresee collapse in Mexican investment/growth in ‘94-95. Was mistake to try to precisely forecast that or net job creation. We learned from our analytical mistakes 25 years ago.
Abenomics has been a revolutionary policy,
@AdamPosen
says. "Mr. Abe was able to demonstrate that a democratically elected leader could take on special interests, look to the long term instead of just reacting to the short term, & still get reelected."
New Chinese data imply that foreign firms operating in China are not only declining to reinvest their earnings but—for the first time ever—they are large net sellers of their existing investments to Chinese companies & repatriating the funds.
Read here:
Rich, vaccine-manufacturing countries are deluding themselves if they think they can wipe out COVID-19 at home & speed economic recoveries while the pandemic rages elsewhere, especially in developing economies,
@ChadBown
,
@bollemdb
& Maurice Obstfeld write.
President Trump has praised tariffs as a “great revenue producer for the US government. In reality, tariff revenue has not been a major source of government revenue since 1914.
#PIIECharts
Lula must be able to count on the international community to condemn the actors & organizations behind these crimes against democracy & impose international sanctions targeting individuals and corporations to deter future disruptions. By
@bollemdb
:
Many economists have opinions about the "Washington Consensus"—it raises red flags to some while providing enduring wisdom to others.
So what is it?
A list of 10 policy recommendations from John Williamson that took on a life of its own.
Learn more here:
In 1960, South Korea’s exports were ~1% of GDP & the country’s ability to import depended mostly on US aid. After changing its foreign exchange & trade policies in the mid-1960s, Korea saw a surge in exports to more than 10% of GDP by the end of the decade.
The latest installment of
#PIIECharts
by
@ojblanchard1
& Ben Bernanke illustrates the main components fueling the decline in inflation in the US & EU, building on previous research indicating strong price shocks help to explain most of the increase & later decrease.
“There’s no real dynamism in consumption, investment, or on the external side, and government spending has collapsed too. So where’s the growth going to come from?” asks
@bollemdb
of Brazil.
Even with the phase one deal, US tariffs on imports from China are more than six times what they were before the trade war started in 2018.
#PIIECharts
Committee members have been comparing federal deficits with household debt. Dr. Blanchard says public debt plays a macrostabilization role in the economy that private debt does not, so comparing public debt with private, whether that is consumer or business, is not applicable.
It is our honor to announce the Government of Japan has bestowed the Imperial Decoration the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon upon PIIE President
@AdamPosen
.
Read the full press release here:
Since 1980, the pretax income of the bottom half of workers in European countries has grown by 37%. For the bottom half of Americans, pretax income has risen only 3%.
Learn more about economic inequality & how to fix it:
We are once again reminding you that tariffs are taxes & Trump's proposed 20% across-the-board tariff plus 60% on imports from China would cost a typical household over $2,600 per year.
#PIIECharts
Details:
8/ Trade balance depends on larger factors like gov’t spending/tax cuts & exchange rates, not tariffs or FTAs. Even President’s 2018
@WhiteHouseCEA
report says no evidence tariffs reduce trade deficits. Also, consider how FTAs aid and align allies for US national security.
.
@ojblanchard1
&
@GitaGopinath
discuss Tuesday the IMF policy change on allowing countries to use capital flow management preemptively to reduce financial stability risks as & consider the future of Fund's work on the integrated policy framework.
Register:
We are pleased to announce Mary E. Lovely, PIIE senior fellow since 2017 & leading scholar in international trade & investment & on China's emergence into the global economy, has been named the Institute's next Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow 🎉
Details:
Lula must be able to count on the international community to condemn the actors & organizations behind these crimes against democracy & impose international sanctions targeting individuals and corporations to deter future disruptions. By
@bollemdb
:
9) No clue what
@SecretaryRoss
referring to on claims
@PIIE
got forecasts wrong on KORUS or China. We argued for the real benefits of having China subject to WTO rules and S. Korea-US trade growing, which both proved right.
TOMORROW:
@GitaGopinath
gives a keynote speech at a joint PIIE-
@IMFNews
event on rethinking fiscal policy.
Details, agenda, & register for the conference here:
The idea that making everything domestically builds resiliency is what
@AdamPosen
calls "the fallacy of self-sufficiency" & it has repeatedly been disproven. It is having diversified supply chains—including geographically—that builds resilience.
Read more:
JUST IN from
@jasonfurman
: Decomposing the decline in the labor force participation rate finds that roughly half of it is consistent with the aging of the population & continued economic weakness. As for the other half, as he says... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Market-friendly reforms Brazilian President Bolsonaro & Economy Minister Guedes want are the opposite of what the government should focus on for the foreseeable future,
@bollemdb
says. Instead, they should be getting resources to those who most need them.
All of the world’s advanced economies rely more on taxes than spending to reduce inequality. The US has the least progressive tax system but spends near the average amount on social programs.
Learn about economic inequality & how governments can fix it:
The Gini coefficient measures how equally income is distributed in a society, where 0 = perfectly equal, 1 = all income goes to 1 person.
Between 1985-2013, the Gini coefficient moved closer to 1—more unequal—in most high-income countries.
How to fix this:
“All of us in academia, we said ‘YouTube? Not us!’ Public intellectuals don’t do YouTube,”
@bollemdb
said.
But she started doing daily videos explaining
#COVID19
economics & basic economics, & saw her viewership balloon from around 5k subscribers to 60k.
THREAD: The US employment report for June continues to show a strong labor market consistent with a strong economy with moderating inflationary pressures. 372k jobs were added in June.
@jasonfurman
explores. Follow along 👇 (1/11)
If the Trump administration succeeds in bilateral trade negotiations with Japan, the end result will be the same as what could have been accomplished by US membership in the
#TPP
.
Total US imports from China are up 6% from 2017, while US exports to China are down 5%. The global US goods trade deficit is up 10% from last year, with China’s share of the deficit remaining constant. Follow
#PIIECharts
for more data like this.
If inflation does not return quickly to the 2% target, central banks should not deliberately push economies below potential & risk recession to return to 2%. Instead, they should correct the mistake of 25 years ago & raise targets moderately above 2%.
If the current rate of deforestation is maintained over the next few years, the Amazon would be dangerously close to the estimated “tipping point” as soon as 2021—when the rainforest can no longer generate enough rain to sustain itself,
@bollemdb
estimates.
#PIIECharts
Previous efforts by Brazil's government and the international community helped reduce the rate of deforestation. That progress is being hindered by Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, who took office in January.
#PIIECharts
Americans are overly optimistic about economic mobility, or really, their chance at fulfilling the "American Dream." The idea that Americans have about the American Dream was probably true in the past, but not anymore. Learn more from
@S_Stantcheva
:
The global economy is poised for a substantial pickup in economic activity for the rest of this year and next year, although different policy responses, rates of vaccination, and underlying factors mean that growth will vary considerably across countries.
#PIIECharts
The Gini coefficient measures how equally income is distributed in a society, where 0 = perfectly equal, 1 = all income goes to 1 person.
Between 1985-2013, the Gini coefficient moved closer to 1—more unequal—in most high-income countries.
How to fix this:
Chinese exports to Russia have fallen by 38% from the second half of last year, despite President Xi Jinping's promise of "no limits" in his country's cooperation with President Vladimir Putin's regime.
@ChorzempaMartin
explores:
JUST IN:
@jasonfurman
finds that if jobs growth continues at this rate, it would take until May 2022 to gain 10 million more jobs—where we would be if there had been no pandemic.
In the interest of their own citizens’ health, rich countries must invest to scale up global vaccine production and distribution capacity that can respond flexibly to emerging threats. By
@bollemdb
,
@ChadBown
, & Maurice Obstfeld:
NEW: Lula must be able to count on the international community to condemn the actors & organizations behind these crimes against democracy & impose international sanctions targeting individuals and corporations to deter future disruptions, writes
@bollemdb
:
.
@AdamPosen
calls Trump's tariffs on steel & aluminum "straight up stupid" because they help very few people at the expense of hurting military allies, consumers, and the rest of the industries that rely on those imports--all without directly hitting China. From
@CNBC
For the fifth year in a row, we are honored to win
@prospect_uk
's Prospect Think Tank award in Economic & Financial Affairs! 🎉
We are proud of our work and look forward to continuing to bring you the best in international economic research.