@TMTLongShort I wrestled a lot with this this weekend and I think I come out on the other side. The efficiency gains are too large to overcome with volume here and more are coming. And open source keeping up and/or pushing the boundary. So why spend hundreds of billions on DCs?

@valuedontlie @compoundpapi Very low leverage. About 2.5x. Figure their real estate is worth $7bn vs TEV of $10bn. Also own 5% of FanDuel. So opco is practically free Both of yours do have theoretical takeout potential that BYD doesn’t tho

@Citrini7 What is the incentive for spending a bazillion dollars for a new SOTA model if there’s a fast follow super cheap model months behind it? Where is the pricing power on inference in this scenario?

@value_edge7 @stevehouf Inference is the bull case for the hyperscalers definitely. But if a fast follow model like deepseek is always there whenever a new SOTA model is released, what exactly is the pricing power on that inference?

@valuedontlie @compoundpapi Agreed with those but BYD the best one in this trade. Clearly mispriced still

@RLinnehanSR There is no chance this happens

@astraffon Been down the last four months per WF

@macrocephalopod @theblackauroras @investingidiocy So just size appropriately/conservatively. Nothing wrong with this trade if you have duration

@JFreshHockey What is going on with the rangers falling off a cliff?

@fcfyplusg Yeah you’re right. It’s not even just inflationary. It’s stagflationary. Doesn’t mean there’s not a place for it for retaliation purposes

@MUNX401 @jakehalloran1 @Domahhhh If you’ve ever traded stocks professionally or in large sums you’d know this could easily move the price. You can feel it price slip even at 1% ADTV

@porterstansb This has to be satire? Right? Right?

@rev_cap Not “the big one” but it’s not good out there. Even in services

@RadnorCapital Respectfully disagree. 2025 numbers are not derisked (or at least there’s not clear upside) so you are just playing valuation which is not obviously cheap to me. Why won’t other states increase taxes? Especially if budgets get pressured in a recession?

@ckrafcik @FanDuel This does not look right to me

@bucketshopcap You’re broadly right that PE is better risk/reward for most people. But they are just different types of jobs that different types of people will excel in. I would never do well in PE. Too political. Publics if you’re good can feel like a video game you’re paid to play

@InvestSpecial Why not buy BYD instead? Way cheaper, better mgmt, own their real estate.

@IneffectiveMath What about relative to the NYR replacement level guy (brodzinski I guess)?

@IneffectiveMath Is COL lower than some eastern teams just due to goal tending?