Domer
@Domahhhh
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Full-time political bettor since 2007. I don't tweet much, and we're all better off for it.
Joined January 2018
If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads:. -Thinking, Fast and Slow.-Intelligent Investor Ch 8.-Fortune's Formula.-Cracking the Code - -Deep Value.-Big Short/Moneyball.-When Genius Failed.-Superforecasting.
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A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive
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Biggest current user on Polymarket is "Fredi9999" -- who is himself a curiosity. He is by far the largest holder of Trump shares, checking in at 7.2 million shares and counting. The user has a total of $6.4 million in positions, all of them on Trump. He also has a lot of cash
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@jacksonhinklle @elonmusk If you want to see fake numbers, a reminder that the geniuses at the CNE released perfectly round numbers. The odds of three numbers out of ten million votes being exactly round percentages is about a billion trillion to one:
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A rabid Trump bettor (and I mean rabid in the literal sense, he may have rabies) signed up for Polymarket today, and has bought almost $2m worth of Trump in the past hour. In his blood lust to buy buy buy, he bought the entire order book and decided to keep buying even though
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A very contentious market on RFK Jr. dropping out in his speech today started the day in the 90s for YES dropping out, crashed to the single digits during the speech, and settled in the 20s/30s post-speech. RFK Jr. announced he was exiting the race in 10 battleground states and
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@NateSilver538 Seems very obvious to me that Shapiro is a suboptimal pick, but I guess it's not obvious to a lot of pundits.
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It begins. Got a sizable 2024 bet in the books: my $260k to GCR's $200k on whether Trump is the GOP presidential nominee. I've got the FIELD; GCR is betting on TRUMP.
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The most shocking poll I've seen in 16 years of doing this. The GDP of France just fell by 1.5%.
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The last important pieces of the polling puzzle are in this morning (NYT polls & Muhlenberg in PA), and I'll say that I think Kamala is now somewhere around 55-60% range to be the next President. Given markets put Trump around 55%, I'm betting a lot on Kam at the moment. If you
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@prairiegh0st No, not swing states or the democratic party, he was likely bitten by a raccoon or similar varmint.
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The funny thing is, and this may seem unbelievable but it's completely true -- I bet on Vance starting many months ago, because Vance was only 2 letters off of Pence and I knew Trump's affinity for consistent marketing (and one syllable names).
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Fredi or "Theo", the largest political bettor in the world, has done an on-camera interview to explain his $40m bet on Trump. He is a poll unskewer who highlights (literally) that Trump has a 90% chance to be elected when you examine the "real" numbers of the cross-trabs:.
Meet the French trader who bet $40 million on Trump winning the election.
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@JeffSonnenfeld @Scaramucci @TIME This is the worst article about prediction markets that has ever been written, and I am shocked that you are an academic. As someone who has traded this as my whole career, I will be the first to tell you that they are not perfect, and have gotten many things wrong. I don't.
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The ownership of Trump and Kamala shares on Polymarket have REALLY different make-ups, strangely reminiscent of their economic policies. Thanks to @primo_data and Polymarketanalytics for the charts. Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of
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@Geiger_Capital Very skeptical of extensive trading experience lol, but alright I'll accept it. Btw, he fat fingered a huge trade yesterday and lost a bunch of money.
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The Venezuelan Election, and Prediction Markets as Truth.(very long post -- SICKOS ONLY). Starting with a little history -- the first big prediction market controversy (and it even made the news) was about a North Korean missile launch in 2006. North Korea launched a missile,
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Sacre Bleu! WSJ speaks with the mysterious Frenchman Fredi -- who is not revealing himself even to a reporter. We find out that he is (allegedly) pushing his chips ALL-IN on Trump:. I'm not sure I believe that! But we'll go with it. So why has this gentleman taken most of what he
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Milestone: the biggest prediction market that has ever existed just paid out successfully on Polymarket -- Trump to be elected President. Volume on Trump alone was $1.5 billion, with the overall market doing $3.7 billion -- juiced by the Biden/Kamala chaotic switcheroo. To give
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Please give me 1 million shares of Trump to win Hawaii, but - just in case I might be wrong - let's hedge it with Kamala to win the popular vote
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@nfr_podcast I know very little about rap. As an observer: Drake's was funnier and a great first shot. Kendrick's was overall much better and Drake should probably let it end here lol.
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A user on Polymarket has lost around $100k so far betting that Trump will be reinstated as President. BUT he just hit a huge ~$13k payday today with the Hunter Biden indictment! Nice***!. ***he promptly reinvested most of the profits into Trump being reinstated in September 🙃🙃
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Election day: late whale action is heavily favoring Trump. Trump bettors are feeling very confident. Overly so? TBD. On Polymarket, a $10m bet from a new account pushes Trump to 62% & on Betfair there's a £2.4m bid on Trump at 60%. Kalshi is 58% and PredictIt at 55%. gl y'all
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@TheStalwart The nebulous account Fredi is up to $30m in bets on Trump, and he keeps aggressively pushing it higher.
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The criticism that prediction markets reflect "conventional wisdom" is a bit daft to me, for a number of reasons. I'll give three of them. 1. It's unclear why reflecting the "conventional wisdom" is bad in the first place, even if it's wrong. It's good to get a numerical grasp.
Prediction markets seem to be really good at figuring out whatever widespread opinions are prevalent at any given moment, not so great at actually predicting things. Don’t know why people revere them so much.
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For the SECOND TIME in two months, people buying Beyonce for up to 98c to perform for Kamala were rugged. 😂😂. Thankfully this market was pretty tiny. Not so thankfully, I was one of the morons holding Yes this time.
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49-49, tie game. Trump looking old and confused lately, maybe Republicans should swap in Michelle.
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A user on Polymarket who is down $3m after a series of horrible bets on Dementia Joe staying in the race has redeposited a few more million!. he is currently shoveling money into Dementia Don winning. One million shares and counting. 😬
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Fredi rips the all-time throne away, possibly for good, as he crosses $40m(!) in bets on Trump. Trump is now close to his July highs at 64% to win, and 38% to win the popular vote. Hasn't been a Republican anywhere near a favorite to be elected President since Bush in 2004.
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As the world debates 25 vs 50bp cut, two determined traders have bought millions of shares of NO CUT today from the Federal Reserve. Combined, they're risking $350k to win $15 million on this crapola. Balances running low across Polymarket as everyone scrambles to take the
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If you were on Polymarket the past week, you had a front row seat to a political earthquake; an historical event that will be talked about/referenced for hundreds of years. No hyperbole. Biden was 90c and Kamala was 1c the day before the debate. Now markets rate Kamala Harris as
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Checking in on PredictIt. which is giving the Democrats a 56% chance of winning the electoral college. And also gives the GOP a 73% chance of winning the electoral college. Lol. Good example of how the $850 limit and relatively high fees distorted pricing to a ridic degree.
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@EmeraldRobinson @FoxNews I love it !!! #foxit should be trending. Bless you Emerald, you have a loyal Newsmax watcher here . .
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[Long post, again]. As prediction markets get bigger, the disputes get bigger, and UMA is having its most active Polymarket dispute ever, with nearly 100 posts of evidence, closing in on 20,000 words. To borrow a comparison made in the Discord, the evidence thread is about to
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Seems like an opportune time to write a little bit about some bad stuff that happens on prediction markets, including a recently unearthed scam that was aimed directly at my face.
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Took a couple years to hit $100m in volume. The jump from $100m to $200m in volume took 78 days. 📈
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(Long post). As a postscript to RFK dropout kerfuffle, the candidate that UMA and Polymarket ruled dropped out of the Presidential race last Friday just did two things to immediately call into question whether that was the correct decision:. 1. He just filed with the state of.
A very contentious market on RFK Jr. dropping out in his speech today started the day in the 90s for YES dropping out, crashed to the single digits during the speech, and settled in the 20s/30s post-speech. RFK Jr. announced he was exiting the race in 10 battleground states and
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@NateSilver538 Yup, they've boxed themselves in by the pitfalls of the model. Kamala is obviously doing much better than Biden, but the 538 model is going to show her doing worse. So they'll need to change the (already opaque) model before re-publishing it.
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Biggest rule fight in the history of Polymarket is brewing, and will come to a head in the next few hours. The Ethereum ETF market has $11m in volume. The market is 5x larger than the previous biggest rules fight (the missing submarine being located). That disparity will only
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Maybe I'll do a long post on this one at some point, but it was more or less proven in 2022 that Trafalgar was faking polls at an industrial-level scale. In 2022, they were allegedly polling tens of thousands of people per day, the largest polling operation in modern history,.
Trafalgar released yet another PA poll today, so while looking for some background I found my tweet about their poll last month, and found something quite odd. the demographic share in both polls are identical, to the tenth of a point. Age, gender, race, party. All identical.
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The previous Trump administration - as far as political prediction markets were concerned - was a maelstrom of chaos. Every day was waking up to a new adventure in trying to predict both policy and personnel. A scandal that lasted a week in 2015 would last maybe 3-4 hours in
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@stefcutter It's 100% inaccurate nonsense spin. You went to TX and went on a podcast! You had time for it. The podcast you went on happened to be 140th ranked (or whatever) that 99% of ppl have never heard of. In lieu of #1 podcast. Bad choices were made. Own it & move on with your life.
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DNC "surprise guest" tonight proving to be a big market -- if it's George W. Bush, I'll eat a shoe. And also lose $40k lol.
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"Let these fools in these crypto markets drive the betting line into a favorable place, and then take advantage of it.". Carville called his shot on Biden dropping (when people thought it was very unlikely), now is trying to go 2/2 with the underdog Kamala.
"She has more money, more energy, more united party. Has better surrogates." @JamesCarville on the 2024 race just four days before Election Day
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@lxeagle17 I couldn't disagree more. The easiest people to bet against in the history of election betting is people who are appointed instead of elected. They nearly always underperform when they're up for election. If the goal is to beat Trump, the process should have input from voters.
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Shkreli has accepted: his $30k on yes ($DJT on Sol is real -- launched by Trump/associated with Trump). My $70k on No. Normally I'd hedge, but I think decently high chance I'm being freerolled here and I either owe $70k or he refuses to pay lol. Will be a good story either way.
@MartinShkreli Interesting. How about my $70k (on No) to your $30k (on Yes)?.
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If you had told me 6 mos ago that (1) Martin Shkreli would pump a "Trump" shitcoin and (2) describe a definitely-not-100% market (trading at 14% rn) as "100% guaranteed", and (3) lead a herd of poor saps to incinerate tens of thousands of dollars buying yes to pump said
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Federal Reserve members have all but guaranteed a rate cut in September, but BasedBoi is undettered. He's bought, so far, almost 2.3m shares and he'll make $2.2m in profits if they were just joking around about cutting.
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You wanna get nuts? . If Biden is going to stay in, let's get nuts.
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@joshrogin @elonmusk @ianbremmer I'd put it at around a 96%-98% chance that Bremmer is the liar here.
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July will be impossible to top, but the scriptwriters are workshopping on new some very funny plotlines for the August season:
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@EmeraldRobinson @newsmax YES!!! Now we need @realDonaldTrump to call into THIS show in his second term, instead of Fox & Friends. Because we are DONE with Fox News forever.
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A post for masochists and prediction market nerds: . There are a dizzying 5+ contentious and nuanced markets up for a vote in UMA right now from Polymarket. Going to kind of summarize the operative issues and give my thoughts. -IDF entering Lebanon by the end of September & IDF
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The best-yielding bonds on planet earth -- with 16+% annualized returns and lower risk than t-bills -- are on @PolymarketHQ. QAnon is sending their highest-level intellectuals to buy this crapola on a nearly daily basis.
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Buckle up, @Polymarket just launched what is likely (imho) to be the biggest prediction market ever: winner of 2024 election. Will probably push for $1b in volume, toppling PredictIt & Betfair for #1. Can already get hundreds of thousands of shares near midpoint (like RFK Jr).
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We'll see if it holds, but this much is true: the debate had more impact on betting odds than any event in modern Presidential history, and it's not close. 2nd place was the "grab em by the p-word" tape from Trump in 2016 that dropped his odds to be POTUS by around 7%. Biden,
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🚨In the past hour, Biden's odds to be President (17%) have now fallen far below other Democrats (~22% combined) to be the next President. Traders on @Polymarket now anticipate Biden at 50/50 to drop his re-election bid. Resignation by the end of the month is trading at 7%.
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@mrboqer He would lose it all, yes. He has wagered $3m (on the dot), and bought 4.5 million Trump shares with it. If Trump wins, he will get $4.5 million back. If Trump loses, he will get $0 back. But it's also a real-time market, so he can sell all of his shares at any point in time.
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Speaking of pundits, all of the worst ones I know all think Walz is a bad pick. Which means he might be the best pick in the history of VP selections. Lol. (Not that I think VP picks matter, unless you really f--- up like with Vance, who is on track to be worse than Palin)
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Hillary currently at 25-1 odds on the markets. If anyone wants to sidebet on Hillary, will give you 120-1 odds that she is the nominee. Free huge arb.
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Trump at 54% to win, his lowest level in 2 months. The million share club is up to 6 people, but ALL these shares are in the red now, except for Vooncer.
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Bama124, who has only traded 39 markets, is BY FAR the big winner of the Dem Veepstakes on Polymarket. Tim Walz traded BELOW 1% when he was added. Josh Shapiro, the longtime frontrunner, traded as high as 82%. Roy Cooper (33%), Mark Kelly (44%), and Andy Beshear (30%) were
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Couple of funny losses in the past 2 days. Lost $4k when a Hunger Games villain asked Trump a question. Was trading at 8c a few days ago. He paid $25k to attend a dinner with Trump and managed to get Trump's attention. I respect the hustle. He deserved it. Gl to him against
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Think we just had the worst ruling on a prediction market dispute I've ever seen, this one from Polymarket on LayerZero's "airdrop." Thankfully rule disputes are very rare or I'd probably end up involuntarily committed to an asylum at this point. LONG post ahead that many
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Markets like this are what make prediction markets so fun and hilarious. Sam Altman to return as CEO of OpenAI has gone from 3% likelihood on @Polymarket to a 90% likelihood back to a 3% likelihood and now back to a 33% chance.
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Slight plot twist to the @zachxbt scoop: verso.sol funded the "diamondfnf" Polymarket account which is by far the largest owner of Yes in the "Is $DJT real?" market. Diamondfnf put in a 20c floor on the Polymarket market up until around 3pm yesterday afternoon. Approximaely 2
One of the large DJT insiders verso.sol dumping $832K worth of DJT and then depositing USDC to CEX ~1 hr ago. Coincidentally also a large holder on Martin’s other project Shoggoth. 5cPzLzLQjt2oc8X6rGannrh7HmVJNAMFJKq21DdZRuHP
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Kinda funny: WSJ just wrote about this as if they discovered it. They left out the French connection -- I don't blame them, there's no hard proof, but it's the best part of the story. They also seem to lean a bit into manipulation. Who knows. hopefully.
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There's not exactly moral victories in betting, but if there is, today was a big one. I had a large and losing bet, at around 20-1 odds, on a surprise Fed cut in July, because the employment risks were (imho) so tilted in favor of starting to cut. I thought it was obv nutso to.
The Fed looks foolish for not cutting in July. The labor market is deteriorating. July unemployment rate: 4.3% (up from 3.5% last July).Unemployed Americans: 7.2 million (v. 5.9 mil last July).Long-term unemployed: 1.5 million (v. 1.2 mil last July).-->Big jump in unemployment
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Trump is up to 55c to be the next President on Polymarket after two traders bought almost 2 million shares combined. We could be in for a market where Trump's price is permanently a few cents higher on Poly vs elsewhere due to highly caffeinated crypto bros.
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OUT: Getting 5% annual yield from TreasuryDirect as long as the US Govt doesn't fail. IN: Getting 13% annual yield from Polymarket as long as Bitcoin doesn't 40x to a $19 trillion market cap.
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I managed to cross the $1m mark in volume on Polymarket in June. Prediction markets are MUCH bigger than they were a few years ago, but still have tons of room to grow. 👍
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👀👀.People are really convinced this is a legit possibility, and it's tough to disagree too much. This is one of the biggest markets on the site, not just a few traders.
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That CONSTITUTION auction, and the few minutes of uncertainty are an all-time great prediction market moment. The LOSING side went to 99.9%, for YES, because the winner was misreported. Was able to get shares of the winning side at 700-1 odds during the commotion.
After an aggressive start the odds of @ConstitutionDAO.winning have flipped to 50/50. Nail biter.
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@mlcalderone @gabrielsherman Jeesh, you had me for a second with this story. Then I saw Gabriel Sherman wrote it, and that it is basically just dressed-up gossip.
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@EmeraldRobinson I long ago switched from CNN to Fox News, I was tired of the libral agenda and promoting all sorts of things I did not like or agree with. Now I have switched again !!! This time to NewsMax and hopefully this is my last switch. I love NEWSMAX.
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@umichvoter VP "reporting" is all gossip anyway. Might as well add more gossip to the slop pile.
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After a lot of cajoling, I agreed to have a photo of me attached to an interview.
He’s up $700,000 and a bad Trump bet looms — confessions of a Polymarket addict .
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Polymarket is becoming subject to a novel attack on prediction markets: the resolution attack. Manifests itself in a couple ways: . (1) disputing clear resolutions.(2) resolving markets early. And scarily often successful due to UMA. Two ABSURD examples & funny plot twist:.
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Welp. Dark day. CFTC racks up another kill of a prediction market, and shanks PredictIt in broad daylight. FYI, guessing people will panic about their funds. My educated guess is they're 99.99% safe, and panic is unwarranted.
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@SpecialPuppy1 @NateSilver538 So thinking forward to the election, the biggest weakness for her campaign is that she is literally a California liberal (from San Francisco of all places). That's not an ideal electoral attribute, nationally! Not sure which is less popular for voters writ large, San Francisco.
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Joe Biden hits a fresh low at 22%, and Kamala surges to the overwhelming favorite to be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 election. The end seems nigh. TBD if Joe has one more comeback in him.
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Milestone brag. Just correctly predicted Facebook would change its name to Meta and made $1k on that market on @PolymarketHQ. And I just crossed $100k profit on the site. All of my bets are catalogued here:.
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