Porter Stansberry
@porterstansb
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Finance Hack. Chairman of Porter & Co. Founder of MarketWise (NASDAQ: MKTW), a leading publisher of independent financial research.
Miami Beach, FL
Joined August 2022
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This is the largest, most liquid, market in the world. It is heading for ‘no bid.’ It’s also a fair proxy for Bank of America’s $760 billion bond portfolio. Fucked.
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Fun fact: bank credit is now contracting! Since dollar standard (‘71), that’s only happened once before: 2008. Losses in T bonds will far worse than mortgage losses. Stocks are on the verge of a massive collapse. Fractional banking does’t work in reverse. Few.
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Raise your hand if ur 100% out of debt, if you have at least 100 ounces of gold, if you own foreign RE, if you have the ability to travel under a second passport, and if your liquid assets are mostly in 30-day T-Bills. Congrats! You win. The rest of you are fucked.
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The reckoning begins on Tuesday.
For decades, America has lived well beyond its means. The ongoing 50-year deluge of money, credit, and soaring government spending began with Nixon’s repudiation of the gold standard on August 9, 1971.
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The Brookings Institute conducted a large social study to determine the root causes of poverty in America. What they found should make you proud of our country. There are only three things you must do if you want to be successful as an American:
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How ironic that the man who tried to destroy capitalism with ‘stakeholder’ nonsense, while starving the fossil fuel industry of capital for the last decade, now warns that renewables don’t work.
@ClownWorld_
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "The world is going to be short power, short power. And to power these data companies you cannot have just this intermittent power like wind and solar. You need dispatchable power because you can't turn off and on these data centers."
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Losses in $BAC $760B bond portfolio rose by $25B (24%) in the quarter to $131.6 billion. These losses dwarf the bank’s $7.8B in quarterly earnings and represent an existential threat to the bank — but are not counted against earnings or reg capital.
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I am the founder and the largest individual shareholder of NASDAQ listed company MarketWise (MKTW). This thread is about what happens to founders who trust their partners and what really happens when companies go public.
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A year ago
@Porter_and_Co
published a dire warning about a mega-cap American stock. This was the only mega cap stock we told investors to avoid. And it is no ordinary business. It is America’s most strategically important company. We said it would soon “collapse.”
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And cash is fleeing the banking system as unrecognized losses on their balance sheets (bonds held to maturity) continue to grow by the hundreds of billions. A global financial collapse is possible in the next 30 days.
Yellen says can pay for two wars, with debt/GDP near 130%, and $33 trillion in debt. Bond market says 'No.' Gold says 'Go ahead, make my day.' Is anyone in Washington listening?
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This is hyperinflation in the making. Our political leaders don’t understand why women shouldn’t compete against men in college sports. There’s no chance they have the wisdom to make massive cuts to government spending and to implement, low, flat tax rates for all. Absent that,
BREAKING: Total US debt is now up ~$650 BILLION since it crossed $33 trillion exactly 1 month ago, according to Zerohedge.
Yesterday alone, total US debt jumped by another $58 billion.
Total US debt has grown by ~$22 billion PER DAY for the last month.
In other words, we have
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On Dec 31, 2013 I published The Wages of Obama's Sins. The letter was a prophecy of how gov spending, financed by deficits and inflation of the money supply, would send our county into an economic collapse. I wrote:
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Fun fact for the ‘no recession’ crowd: $2.2T of commercial mortgages will mature in next 30 months. Unrecognized losses at banks are already +$500B. How do you pretend when the loan is due?
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Like frogs in a slow boil. They didn’t listen in 2010 when I gave them the script. Occupy Wall Street. Dollar loses AAA. GE collapses (exactly as I said it would.) BLM. Jan 6. Covid lock down — $7T in money printing. Defeat in Afghanistan. US elected officials openly endorsing
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What’s the root cause of the wealth gap? Declining real wages + soaring asset prices. What causes both? The Federal Reserve. Who wins? Banks that get to use the Fed’s free money. Gov, which can finance endless deficits. And Washington elite who know how to exploit both.
A paper Dollar has lost 17% of its purchasing power in the last 3 years.
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I would encourage every American that believes in free speech to support Musk by avoiding companies that are boycotting Twitter/X. I think the media’s treatment of Musk is shameful and an indictment of their credibility.
I thought
@elonmusk
’s interview with
@andrewrsorkin
was one of the great interviews ever. Musk is a free speech absolutist which I respect. I think he is entirely correct that he and
@X
are treated unfairly and inconsistently by advertisers.
@tiktok_us
@instagram
@facebook
and
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I want to tell you what happened – a stock jumped 150% yesterday. The reason isn’t obvious. This is, without a doubt, the most valuable information anyone will ever give you for free in your life. Which is why you’ll ignore it.
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Holy moly. What happens when you call out the media... we're about to find out. Hat tip
@hkuppy
This may be the most savage open I’ve ever seen
Vivek just absolutely torched the Media & the Republican Party
🔥🔥🔥
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Lol. Brilliant.
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Unemployment over 10% by year end 2024. Nobody survives deflation (collapsing M2).
🔴 US CHICAGO PMI ACTUAL 46.9 (FORECAST 50, PREVIOUS 55.8) $MACRO
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I’m sure this is fine.
Commercial Bank (CB) Lending has declined by 1.63% from its all-time high. This is only the 4th time (1975, 2001, and 2009-10) in the last 50 years CB lending declined by more than 1.50%. The S&P lost roughly 50% of its value each of the 3 previous times.
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For the first time in 15 years, short-term Treasuries offer a real yield above inflation. Investors are no longer penalized for playing defense. That cash will become worth its weight in gold when this crisis erupts, and world-class businesses trade down to fire sale prices.
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Boeing is a wonderful metaphor for our entire society. When we promote people because of their political views (or their race, or their sex) instead of their competencies, we get planes that fall out of the sky. When will the madness end...?
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How could it have been otherwise? Covid was the greatest mass delusion in history. And the best evidence we have (alongside Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan) that the Fed government needs to be abolished.
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Can anyone explain to me why Israel (or any other country in the Middle East) is strategically important to the United States? I'm not asking whether or not Israel has a right to exist, etc., I'm asking why, specifically, that's important to the U.S.
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Sounds reasonable to me.
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America’s experiment with paper money reached its zenith – $7.1 trillion in unfunded government spending – in the insane over-reaction to the flu of 2020.
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This should be required learning for every high school senior & all legal immigrants. And if you aren’t familiar with it, you should read it once a year, at least.
The world's best answer to the question "What is Money?"
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When Bank of America reports 3Q earnings the losses on these long term bonds will have exceeded its $175 billion in tangible equity capital, meaning any sustained run on its deposits would render it insolvent.
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Harvard is no more. It is the enemy of all Americans. We are a nation of merit. A new Ivy will emerge. And have nothing to do with skin or students who ‘deserve’ opportunity. In America, that must be earned. This post should be the anthem of every true American.
Claudine Gay wants to exempt herself from the same rules on plagiarism that she herself enforced as dean and then president. If Harvard allows this, it will permanently compromise its own principles—and complete the total decomposition of academia.
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Thanks
@tommyhump
It was a great pleasure to host you and I look forward to following your career.
Porter Stansberry turned $36,000 into $3,000,000,000 by writing financial research… after his future business partner fired him...
Here's what I learned from
@porterstansb
about writing and selling financial research:
1. Hierarchy of Information Value: In the crowded financial
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Bank of America made the largest investment in its history. It bought $760 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgages, with most of the purchases occurring in mid-2020 at the absolute peak in long-term bond prices.
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Nothing to see here. Return to your homes and former places of business. The next round of deficit spending and QE will restore our prosperity…
McDonald's Items: January 2020 vs Today
Big Mac $3.99, $8.29, Up 107%
Big Mac – Meal $5.99, $12.19, Up 103.5%
2 Cheeseburgers $2.00, $3.69, Up 84.5%
2 Cheeseburgers – Meal $4.89, $11.19, Up 129%
$MCD
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Shocker. If printing money worked, Argentina would be the wealthiest country in the world.
Inflation this year will more than cancel the benefit of the $1200, $600, and $1400 stimulus checks. Most of the money printed and spent by the government did NOT go to American families.
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“Too male, too pale, and too pale” — this from an elected official in America’s leading city? This is what The End of America looks like.
Trump was right. AG Letitia James is a racist. Listen to this deranged rant:
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First time anyone has accurately written about our history. One extra detail: I was forced out of the company (aka canceled) by UBS, not my partners. I denied structural racism in a 2012 podcast. By 2020 opinions like mine were no longer allowed in corporate America.
HOW PORTER STANSBERRY TRANSFORMED BIG IDEAS INTO BILLIONS IN THE INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER INDUSTRY
On August 2, 2021,
@porterstansb
joined the billionaire club, his MarketWise stock surging to $979 million, aided by a $44.5 million dividend just a year prior.
But, rough waters lay
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He’s saying the thing that can’t be said: the collapse of the dollar has led to a collapse in the norms of our society. Prosecuting Trump is the next big leg down. It will get worse.
You can tell when
@ComicDaveSmith
is saying something that really connects because everyone's listening to him. The room is silent... 🔥🔥🔥
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Tony’s point is well made. But how did someone who never had a real job in his entire life — from ‘community organizer’ to U.S. President — afford $30m in personal real estate? The Biden’s aren’t the only grifters.
After spending eight years fear mongering about fossil fuels and sea-level rise,
@BarackObama
purchased $30 million worth of beachfront homes in Massachusetts and Hawaii, and applied for a permit for a 5,000 gallon propane tank. The
#ClimateScam
apparently pays very well.
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Correct. And the real concern isn’t the recession, it is how corporate balance sheets & regional banks are going to weather big reductions to consumer spending. Stocks at 25X earnings with 10-yr rates at 4% aren’t going to react well to double digit declined in revs.
1. The yield curve inverted 16 months ago.
2. 8/8 times the yield curve inverts, we get a recession.
3. The recession happens when the curve un-inverts.
4. The curve is un-inverting.
5. Payrolls are finally crapping out.
A recession is inevitable.
Buy 2s.
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Amen. The crash is coming before the end of this month.
It's very simple. If you're still bullish here, you're ignoring the three golden rules of not getting your ass handed to you in financial markets...
1) Don't fight the Fed (tightest Fed in two generations)
2) Price over news. Stocks ignore bad news in bull markets and they
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Not sure who they will assassinate first, Vivek or RFK … but don’t think either would live long enough to be sworn in if they win.
Asked what he would do in response to the release of Epstein's flight logs, Vivek responds...
*proceeds to rattle off a dozen conspiracies that are now proven true*
I swear this dude is on a mission to answer every question exactly right
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This isn't bullish:
* Almost 30% of U.S. small cap stocks (Russell 2000) profitless last 3-years in row
* Corporate bond spreads at record tight levels: on par with May of ’29, Jan ’66, July ’73, Oct ’79, Feb ’07.
* Berkshire is selling (-$5b last quarter)
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Absent financial constraints and protections for property rights, democracies rapidly devolve into competing parasitic factions, each attempting to live at the expense of the “other.” The result is, inevitably, a continuing increase in government spending and government debts.
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The most important issue of our time. The only way to restore peace and prosperity to all. Government in our republic was designed to be limited. It must exit: our money, our schools, our healthcare, and our relationships with foreign trading partners. Government = violence.
On this day 110 years ago, the Federal Reserve was created.
Since then, the US Dollar has lost more than 97% of its value.
Put another way, the US government and Federal Reserve have stolen 97% of your wealth, before you pay a penny in taxes.
It is long past time to end the
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I am sure this is fine.
The US national debt is $34.471 trillion and rising $1 trillion every 100 days
$32T to $33T = 92 days
$33T to $34T = 106 days
$34T to $35T is on pace for 100 days
Within a few years, don't be surprised when the US national debt is increase at $1 trillion per 30 days. We are in
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U.S. fed debt is now a staggering $33 trillion. That’s up an incredible $10 trillion in the last four years. And the debt bonanza shows no sign of ending. In 2023, the U.S. federal government is on track to run a $2 trillion budget deficit, or 8% of GDP.
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Should be required reading for all investors. Everything you need to know is right there.
Warren Buffett writes on what we can learn from his real estate investments
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Through the end of Q2 2023, U.S. banks were sitting on $550 billion in unrealized losses from their holdings of long-duration Treasuries and MBSs. That’s nearly 25% of the total equity capital in the U.S. banking system.
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I wonder how many other people at $BA agree that the company is in the midst of a collapse and that its entire management has been so corrupted by DEI that the company can no longer build safe airplanes...?
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There’s nothing more racist or anti-American than DEI programs. Everyone associated with them should be fired. Especially anyone involved in education. America’s meritocracy was hard to build. But lately it has been even harder to keep.
The Austin-American Statesman has confirmed that the University of Texas has fired 66 DEI administrators and permanently shuttered the DEI department. The "pink slip revolution" has begun.
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Tucker is doing the only worthwhile journalism anywhere right now. This is a brilliant explanation of why America is following Argentina into an economic collapse, as we can no longer control government spending and runaway inflation.
Ep. 23 Hyperinflation and reckless monetary policy could soon devastate the global economy. We traveled to Argentina, where it’s already happened.
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If you do these things, there’s a 74% chance you’ll make it to the middle class. In other words, in America to be a success, you have to go to school, do some homework, keep your dick in your pants, and go to work every day. But what about racism...?
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Get woke, go broke. When they opened their bathrooms to the homeless, they became a charity, not a business.
The collapse of Starbucks is truly insane:
1. Company wide same store sales fell 4% and traffic fell 6% this quarter
2. In China, same store sales plunged 11% with an 8% decline in the average order
3. International same store sales FELL 6% while a 1.4% GAIN was expected
4.
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Exactly. The coming surge in unemployment is completely unexpected and will lead to 10%+ unemployment rates by end of ‘24
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Brilliant. And funny.
Turns out Nikki knows as little about the Civil War as she does about the Ukraine War.
But whatever war it was, I’m sure she’s in favor of it. 💵
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Pay attention. Massive legal transfer of wealth is coming.
"I'm looking at a building...we're the senior lender, there's a mezzanine position & there's the equity. I can tell you that the equity is probably gone, the mezzanine probably owns the building. There's gonna be a lot of that...a reshuffling of the chairs..." (i.e., Capitalism)
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Our January 27th 2023 headline? COMING SOON: THE BOEING COLLAPSE. How did we know? For the last 20 years there hasn’t been a company in America that’s embraced more bad ideas – from financial engineering to ESG – than Boeing.
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MarketWise Announces Leadership Changes to Strengthen Operations and Business Performance; Declares Regular Dividend of Approximately $2.9 Million or $0.01 Per Share; Declares Special Dividend of Approximately $50.0 Million or $0.15 Per Share
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Coming soon to America. In 20 more years, no one will believe that the U.S. Treasury bond used to be the foundation of the world's financial system.
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@Snowden
@EricBalchunas
Most important thing: spend time with him. Children will only trust you if you invest in them with your time.
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In the fall of 2022 I produced a documentary about the two men destroying America — Bloomberg (anti-fossil fuels) and Larry Fink (ESG/woke/‘stakeholder’ rights). At the time, people mocked me. But now?
You might notice something similar with the majority of shareholder investment and control at Delta, United, American and Boeing:
Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street and the ESG-driven, sustainability cult.
CEOs and C-suite officers are following the direction of Boards who are
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This is socialism.
The US government is spending as if we are in a crisis:
US government expenditures as % of GDP just hit 43%, matching levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
To put this into perspective, spending as a % of GDP is just 1% below World War 2 levels.
Even at the peak of
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Sometimes a man just needs to head out with his dog and go kill some shit.
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@DanPriceSeattle
If you believe this works, then why stop at $1k or only the homeless. Let’s just give $10k a month to everyone! That way we can all have a good middle class life and no one will suffer!
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Exceptionally well-written and thoroughly documented by a half dozen of the world's best scientists. If you want to actually understand climate change, this is a must-watch. This isn't politics.
Climate the Movie: The Cold Truth
The final nail in the coffin for the "human-induced climate change" scam. An absolute MUST-WATCH!
Directed by Martin Durkin (
@Martin_Durkin
), director of 2007's 'The Great Global Warming Swindle'. Produced by Tom Nelson (
@TomANelson
).
Please
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In the 18 months since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, depositors have yanked nearly $1 trillion from U.S. banks. Never before in history have we seen deposit flight on this scale.
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I’ve been traveling regularly to Hong Kong / Singapore since ‘99. Its long been apparent to me that compared to those cities, America was a 2nd world county. I believe that gap is widening.
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And you thought we weren’t printing money anymore … suckers.
Usage of the Fed's emergency funding facility for the banks just hit another record high of $114 billion.
This came in the same week that small banks saw $3.3 billion of deposit outflows.
This pulled total deposits down to their lowest since September after rising for 6 months.
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Hat tip to
@BonnerPrivate
on a timely reminder of one of the most important long-term chart in the world. This chart shows the ratio of U.S. bonds (Bloomberg's U.S. Treasury total return index) to gold.
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If
@mcuban
believes that DEI leads to success, let him pledge to only fly on
@BoeingAirplanes
737s. He could also switch his entire investment portfolio to $DIS.
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Showing Americans what’s really in these laws — and changing politics in America as a result — could be a surprising outcome of A.I.
In the coming weeks, Grok will summarize these mammoth laws before they are passed by Congress, so you know what their real purpose is
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This. Housing will be smashed.
Wall Street Investors are beginning to sell their houses.
This listing in Phoenix was bought by a private equity fund in 2022 at the peak of the bubble.
Now they're listing at an 11% loss.
It's just the start.
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Required reading for all individual investors.
Shelby Davis is probably the least-known great of value investing school.
Davis started investing at 38 years old with just $50,000. By the end of his career, he turned that into $900 Million!
He averaged 23.2% annual returns over 47 years! 👇
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No one else running understands this issue / how much damage has been done to our country and culture by these neo-socialists.
BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard represent the most powerful cartel in human history: they’re the largest shareholders of nearly every major public company (even of each other). They use your own money to create a country that you never voted for. As President I will cut off
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The bitch is back.
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Had an epic day yesterday— crushed the yellowtails, had a long conversations with a couple of sharks, and boated a 50-pound+ barracuda (no joke). When I invite you to come fishing, say yes.
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This will not end well. That is absolutely certain.
US equity concentration just hit another record high.
The top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 25% of the entire index.
Meanwhile, these same 5 stocks currently account for ~70% of the Nasdaq's gain this year.
Technology stocks now reflect a record ~26% of all equity
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Can’t wait to see what happens next … and if that becomes our road map back to sanity.
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Brilliant. Should be mandatory for all high school students to study. Need to get a transcript made.
JAVIER MILEI Speech in DAVOS - World Economic Forum (English) via
@YouTube
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Just checked in to Mar-a-Lago. Meeting with a FOT. I was surprised — they’re handing out classified information with each three-night stay.
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I was rich — self-made billionaire. Today my debts probably exceed my assets. Now I work from a barn, fly commercial, and drive a 20-year old car. But I am engaged to the most beautiful woman in the world. And I know who my real friends are. Worth a lot.
A rich man may still envy a poor man’s:
• Fitness
• Family life
• Friendships
• Time
• Talent
• Passion
There is more to a full life than just money. Be mindful of what you neglect in the pursuit of it.
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During COVID the government printed enormous amounts of money and manipulated bond rates to their lowest point ever. Our banks faced the Hobbesian choice: earn nothing on safe short-term U.S. Treasury notes or earn 1.5% or so on long term U.S. bonds.
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Doing what I love most at my farm. Hope ya’ll are having a great fall weekend!
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Let no one forget how the media mocked me for predicting Obama’s 3rd term.
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This. You’re getting poorer. You just don’t know it yet.
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These factors apply to every racial sub-group in our country. And they predict all of the relative differences in incomes. In other words, yes, it’s true that some people do better in America than other people, but those differences are not caused by race.
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