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Last Seen Profiles
If Joe Biden is forced out of the race, Democrats will lose the election, likely in a red wave.
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People aren't ready for the conversation about suburbs collapsing for Republicans.
Wonder if Harris’ strength in NE-2 says anything about how she’s doing in similar suburban areas.
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Yup. At this point, if Harris doesn't win I'm not certain what else could have been done to change that result. While I firmly believe Harris will win, if she doesn't, it will say a lot about our country and none of it good.
Democrats are running a very good race under exceptionally good economic conditions. Republicans are running a very poor race with an exceptionally weak candidate at the top of the ticket. If Democrats don't win, there is something structurally wrong with our political system.
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Lmao it's so funny how Democrats doom and convince themselves that Harris 4 point leads in swing states are not real, but Republicans get a +1 result from a right-wing "pollster" and they start celebrating.
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Lmao Democrats just raised ~$50m since the debate but yes, Bill O'Reilly has sources in the WH
🚨Here's a Biden update from news headquarters. The decision has been made that the President will quit the campaign. Two reasons: Democrat internal polling says he cannot recover from the debate, and fundraising is drying up. (1/2)
#JoeBiden
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7% Dem lead in a Democratic state: Oh, man! This is too close for comfort, and trump could flip it!
3% Trump lead: OMGZ IT'S OVER! PACK IT UP! WE HAVE ALREADY LOST!
Blexas and Blorida are not happening people let’s not do this again
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As I said earlier today, Harris/Walz campaign is basically saying "let's finish strong," and that's because they feel confident, but also know that it's about turnout now. Undecideds are now decided, and it's time to get your supporters to vote.
"why isn't Harris talking to undecided voters?" Because it's October and everyone is decided. I mean sure technically there are a few left but by now almost everyone has decided.
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And a strategy of a winning campaign that feels confident, but not cocky. They're trying to push margins beyond 50+1.
Harris boosting turnout among apolitical young women (Call Her Daddy), supercharging suburban women (The View), and showing some personality for edgy middle-aged men (Howard Stern) is a brilliant start to her endgame strategy.
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Lol weird. A reputable pollster drops good Dem numbers and suddenly a right-wing pollster comes in with good numbers for trump. Weird how this always happens!
📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE:
@InsiderPolling
🟥 Trump: 50% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 48%
——
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 49% (+5)
🟥 McCormick: 44%
——
#86
(2.0/3.0) | 800 LV | 9/14-15 | ±3.46%
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Lmao it's because it's cheap. They're trying to keep as much money leftover as possible.
Wow, Trump is totally dominating spending on direct mail. While there’s lots of attention to TV and digital spends, I’m glad to see there’s a firm tracking physical mail too. Mail may seem old-fashioned in 2024, but it is still a big campaign tactic!
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Harris and the campaign have the pedal to the floor. They're confident. They feel good. They're trying to run the score up and leave no doubt.
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I can tell you directly that Republicans don't see the same numbers privately as what public pollsters are showing in Nevada.
The GOP choosing to avoid going after the 3 seats in Las Vegas is most likely a sign that they don't believe in and/or are not seeing any kind of generational realignment in their internal polling.
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This guy runs RCP if you really needed to know why you shouldn't take any of their shit seriously.
Biden's schedule is absolutely blank. Meanwhile, Emily Goodin reports Biden was "visibly shaking" as he exited AF1 in CA on Tuesday morning, and needed a boost from Secret Service agents just to get into his SUV.
Who is running the country?
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Harris +4 in PA NYT polls
Trump +6 in AZ
Not saying trump can't win Arizona, but it sure as fuck won't be by the 5-6pt margin NYT constantly finds there.
Overall, Harris is solid in PA and that bodes VERY well for MI and WI.
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I finally spoke with my family member who holds a high-ranking position in the military.
It's not good.
Remember when they told me to get my affairs in order? It was back in April. They said, "We're preparing for war on the homeland."
I asked them if it was the CCP or
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Plouffe is trying to tell us something...
Are you listening?
Plouffe thinks public polls are undercounting Harris' support among Republican-leaning Independents
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Wait, they think this is good for them? Lol
#New
October Registration data - North Carolina
🔴 Republicans - +19,434
🔵 Democrats - +11,042
🟡 Independents - +45,274
@MichaelPruser
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@ChiCyph80
I don't believe that's true at all. There's few scenarios that Biden loses in a landslide. His floor is a lot higher come November than an unknown candidate going against a former president.
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Hey, they're flooding the zone.
Just thought you should know.
Okay, cool. Bye.
New ARIZONA SENATE poll by
@WPAIntel
for
@club4growth
(R)
🔵 Ruben Gallego: 48%
🔴 Kari Lake: 46%
🟢 Mike Norton: 3%
#130
(1.7/3.0) | 8/11-13 | 600 LV | ±4%
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@schlagteslinks
Let's just say that the Dem held districts show no signs of bleeding for Dems and that trump has a pretty hard ceiling in Nevada with the undecided as overwhelmingly negative against him.
At this point, I'd be stunned if Biden didn't win NV by 2020 margins.
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Omg lmao this is real. Incredible.
This is peak "Ruthkanda Forever"-posting
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It ain't a 2pt race with these numbers
NPR/PBS/Marist poll among suburban women:
65% Harris
34% Trump
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Lmao how you know it's going horrible for trump
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Trump, ceiling. Ceiling, trump.
First poll fully taken after Trump’s attempted assassination
Biden *gained* by 1 point
It’s Morning Consult so take it with a grain of salt but no “sympathy bump” at least from this survey
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"Justice impacted people"
Good fucking lord.
Democrats are really leaning into the “convicted felon” thing despite pressure from criminal justice reformers to dispense w that kind of language and acknowledge that justice-impacted people are also voters
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You can't believe these numbers along with the Iowa numbers and believe the WI and MI polls today.
The point is that these universes can't coexist in this election.
New Poll from Susquehanna for PA-10:
TV News Anchor Janelle Stelson (D): 48%
Congressman Scott Perry (R): 39%
Source: ABC27 News (Harrisburg)
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All I'm going to say is that public polling is missing the mark on Harris/Walz number. Trump is at his ceiling privately, like I've been telling you, and Harris/Walz consistently hitting 50% in swing states.
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Honestly, not playing Cal anymore is suddenly a blessing. I don't think I could take a week of this roasting if we were struggling.
Cal Twitter, loving the memes, but we also must respect our opponent for its social justice advocacy.
Florida State is currently in the midst of a ten month peaceful protest against playing football.
FSU is the most woke program in college sports and we have so much to learn.
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@dothejackal
I don't believe that's true at all. He's not losing in NH, but if he was, the Democrats are swamped anyway. Like, if you believe polling that shows NY within single digits and Virginia and NH going red, I don't know what to tell you.
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And roughly matches the weak primary results trump had with suburban voters.
In today’s NY Times/Siena poll Kamala Harris has a 93-point net advantage with Democratic voters while Donald Trump has just an 80-point net advantage with Republicans - an indication that the unprecedented number of high profile Republicans opposing Trump are having an impact.
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The funny thing is that there's no fundamentals favoring trump whatsoever.
Nate Silver keeps repeating that the fundamentals of the race favor Trump. Huh??? exactly what fundamentals? Harris is more popular than Trump; Dems are more engaged and enthusiastic than GOP; Harris has led every day in last six weeks. And has way more money to spend.
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This is where election Twitter being predominantly men has failed miserably. Taking away the rights of ~53% of the voting population is a very bad idea. Doesn't take a fancy model to know that.
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Lmao
Harris has a big Georgia problem if some of the early-early voting numbers I'm seeing don't change.
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It's wild how people act like trump won Florida by like 10 points or something. Bush won Florida by 5% in 2004. Obama won it four years later. Trump won Florida by 3 in 2020.
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While there are downfalls with opening up this seat in Arizona,
@DrewSav
is right, people really fucking love astronauts.
My first flight went about as well as loose change in a cockpit – literally.
My last flight brought my crew home from the
@Space_Station
and was Space Shuttle Endeavour’s final flight.
It’s not about how good you are when you start, it’s about how good you push yourself to be.
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Marist at +5 and Marquette at +1 is actually good. We don't need more herding. If I had to guess, I'd say that Harris is likely at ~4% right now and will close strong. Marist is at 52%, and that's where I've put her win number at. I believe it ends at ~5.5% when it's all over.
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@writcertiorari
@schlagteslinks
Absolutely fucking perfect. Amazing. "I can't be wrong" is a hell of a stance
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Lol again, if you think the state of the race moves from day to day depending on polls being released that move wildly for no reason, then you need to seriously sign off social media.
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I mean, we should. If you think any of the data on its face is solid, I don't know what to tell you.
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Funny how Harris leads of 2-3 in a state are considered bunk and too close to call, but trump with any lead, even a tie, is considered insurmountable.
If trump was winning GA, he wouldn’t have gone to Savannah and booked a small venue to make it look like he’s winning a state he should win.
No, folks, if trump is within the MoE, Harris is winning GA
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Say what you want about Bill, but the dude has an unmatchable aura.
The boss was stumping for
@KamalaHarris
in Georgia and had to stop by the old stomping grounds,
@McDonalds
.
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Yup. I've been screaming this since 2016. Start acting like we're winning and we're going to punch another score in and run up that fucking scoreboard.
You know what happens to players and fans who are down by 10? They lose hope and quit.
Dems love saying things like “act like we’re 10 points down!” But then Biden was down 2 points and they lost their collective shit. And yes, donations and volunteers dried up.
People like to work for winners, which is why these GOP firms are flooding the zone with crap numbers
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National Teamsters not endorsing Harris has been amazing for her campaign. Instead of a one day story, Harris now has multiple days of endorsements from local chapters. Amazing.
VP Harris campaign: “Ahead of Donald Trump’s economic speech in Savannah… Teamsters Joint Council 75 representing Georgia, Florida, and Alabama endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for President”
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Lol, can you imagine if a campaign took the advice of these morons? We'd get beaten by Reagan landslide margins.
Harris should try to go as well
I believe they don't have any campaign events on Monday / Tuesday but I haven't seen their official VP duties calendar
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And this is why Republicans flood the zone with shit polls
But she's also got another problem: it's been a while since we've seen a poll showing Harris leading in Pennsylvania.
A high-quality poll showing Harris ahead in PA would make a big difference right now.
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And this is something Democrats shouldn't forget moving forward, win or lose next month. The far left has given up their seat at the table as far as I'm concerned.
The Cheneys actually want Harris to win and the far-left doesn’t.
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@jsharpe2023
Latino polling when it's done entirely with Latino sampling is shown to look like Hillary numbers, improving upon Biden numbers. A Dem likely won't get Obama numbers for awhile, but for sure Hillary is within reach.
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Walz being at this game will be 100x more effective than multiple days of campaign events. Reaches middle America, young voters and men.
Maybe, just maybe, the Harris-Walz team knows what they're doing.
VP candidate Tim Walz is at the Big House for Michigan vs. Minnesota.
Video via
@BriceMarich
:
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Hot take: President Biden would have won with a nearly identical coalition that Harris will win with 🤷♂️
"Harris’s new lead is more about her gaining ground than Trump slipping. While the former president has held steady around 45%, Harris is now winning a significantly higher share of Democrats (95% vs. 90%) and 2020 Biden voters (92% vs. 80%) than Biden was."
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It's funny seeing the cosplay socialists respond to this in the exact way you think they will. Like, they can't organize a successful protest, but they're totally gonna start the socialist revolution.
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Super real. Can't question a Nate. Must be accepted.
NYT Siena has now shown Arizona and Ohio are polling about the same for Trump.
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I really don't know what we're going to do with all this bad news
📊 PA-7 POLL:
@muhlenberg_poll
🟦 Susan Wild (inc): 51%
🟥 Ryan McKenzie: 45%
——
PA-7
President: 🔵 Harris 50-47%
Senate: 🔵 Casey 51-45%
——
#11
(2.8/3.0) | 9/30-10/3 | 459 LV | ±6%
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Fucking Nate Cohn legit said "naw, the biggest realignment election in 70 years is back on motherfuckers!"
>Harris and Trump tied among voters under the age of 30
>Trump winning 17% of black voters
>Harris winning Hispanic voters by only 9 points
NYT/$$iena disrespecters, poll denialists and crosstab haters...we are SO back. We're making a comeback like you've never ever seen before
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Lmao I love "data" people just winging it on their emotions
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Still one of the funniest posts in a long time. It was always a great deal, especially during higher than normal inflation AND having it delivered to you.
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Amazing how he sits on his own balls time and time again. Keep talking, you orange slob.
Trump: For 52 years, from the beginning of Roe v. Wade, people wanted to get it out. Many presidents tried and were unable. I want to thank the justices who overturned Roe
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This. I don't think Harris is the overwhelming favorite, yet, but she is the clear favorite right now. Again, I fully believe pollsters are herding and that the state of the race is nowhere near 50/50.
@schlagteslinks
I'm really sick of people pretending that this race is a tossup and that we can't state the plain truth that dems are clear-but-not-prohibitive favorites.
This isn't a 50-50 race.
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I legit wonder if Harry knows what legacy/ancestral voters are. I used to think he did and was playing dumb. I no believe that to be the case.
"the GOP has made big gains vs. Dems in NC/PA voter registration." bruh both of those states have tons of legacy dem voters.
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Sometimes you just lose. You wish there was a strategic reason, but sometimes people vote for the other person.
But Clinton didn't play it safe! Just because she lost doesn't mean she didn't try. She visited Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania 15 times each.
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Harris is smelling like a winner, and trump is smelling like a loser.
This late in the campaign, it's really difficult to shake these perceptions.
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Like, if your argument is that trump has unmatched enthusiasm at this point, I don't what you want me to say.
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Oh jfc. Rallies don't mean anything for support. Fucking relax, dude.
If Harris doesn’t win GA or NC the election could come down to Pennsylvania. The polling there is way too close for comfort. We’ll see if this Butler rally does anything for Trump. But I would strongly warn Dems against complacency or just playing prevent defense over next month.
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Nearly every Democratic constituency is at or very near 2020 levels. Jewish, Black, Hispanic and youth voters are all very similar to 2020, yet...
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Every state will vote the same, but the coalitions will have completely flipped. Early returns from Detroit are Likely R and Latino voters are +26, just as Rasmussen shows. But Harris makes it up with old and rural whites.
Do. Not. Question. This.
Amazing how "Every state will vote nearly identically to how it did in 2020 except California, Florida and New York, because Democrats will collapse there like they did in 2022" has now become "Every state will vote nearly identically to how it did in 2020, except New York"
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@LadySnarkOfTNB
I think a lot of people following these elections believe that Republicans are at/near their floor in the suburbs. It has barely even begun.
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"The polling sucked four years ago, polls are now showing different things that you should take seriously, but also should unskew to show trump winning!" - very serious analyst Harry
Someone cue the "COMPARING POLLS NOW TO POLLS 4 YEARS AGO IS MEANINGLESS" tape please, I'm losing my voice from yelling.
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VOTER. REGISTRATION. DOES. NOT. MATTER. WHEN. WE. TALK. ABOUT. EARLY. VOTE. RETURNS.
In Arizona, there are a lot of Republicans who stay registered as Republican but have voted for Democrats in 3+ consecutive elections.
Sometimes, you just have to wait until election night.
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51-48 Harris will be the final result in Georgia come November
Georgia Presidential Polling:
Current Poll:
Harris (D): 50%
Trump (R): 48%
April Poll:
Trump (R): 51%
Biden (D): 45%
Beacon / Shaw Research / Aug 26, 2024 / n=1014
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One thing people don't talk about a lot is that A LOT of voters really don't like mail-in voting and prefer to do so in person.
PA early vote data tidbit: As of today, Dem turnout in the 2024 election is at 16.2% of their 2020 total of ballots cast before election day. GOP turnout is at 14.8%.
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@AllisonRFloyd
I remember going to get my wife pads a few years ago and while I was waiting in line, some guy said "haha, I can't imagine buying those and not being embarrassed" and I just said "well, my wife kind of needs them so she doesn't bleed everywhere, so..."
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Yes, Drew, but have you considered that people wrote their code 10 years ago and priors are illegal to update?!
A lot of the online political rhetoric is divorced from real life but particularly when it comes to Tim Walz. He's the most popular person on either ticket!
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A midterm with a Democratic President had a more Republican electorate?
I don't think this is as nearly as clear as many of you do. The 2020 exit poll was D+1; the 2022 midterm exit poll was R+3; the Pew NPORS study was R+2 among RVs; national partisan voter registration has steadily shifted GOP
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Yes, but this isn't 2016, and Kamala isn't Hillary. People really forget how Republicans had been smearing Hillary for 25 years straight, and it finally paid off. 2016 was more about being anti-Clinton than anti-trump.
ok but tbf, CNN instant polls in 2016 showed clinton winning 62-27
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Lmao you know who releases their own internal polls?
Swing states poll:
@realDonaldTrump
(R) internal by Fabrizio/McLaughlin
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 50-45%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 49-46%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 50-47%
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 49-48%
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump 49-48%
Michigan - 🔴 Trump 49-48%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 48-47%
October
512
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Everyone: THROW IT IN THE AVERAGES!
**throws it in the average**
Everyone: OH FUCK THE OUTLIER IS THE REAL RESULT WE'RE DOOMED!!1!
If you like averages of polls, this is **literally** how it works and how to go about understanding MoE.
one in twenty polls should reflect a result outside the margin of error of latent support! that's like the whole deal with margin of error !!
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Like, I can't even begin to explain how fucking furious I am at trump providing putin covid tests while my Dad had to wait for tests before being admitted to the hospital.
My Dad died due to having to wait for oxygen treatment because of a lack of tests.
Fuck trump
Biden saying Netanyahu is a bad guy, Trump giving COVID tests to Putin before they were widely available to Americans…equally big stories!
(If you’re a fucking moron)
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Harris +2 in North Carolina, but down 6+ in Georgia. Very real and Quinnipiac should be taken very seriously.
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@DailyTrix
@keatingssixth
The fact that they can't even understand what they're saying. They're accepted at our rallies and are allowed to be heard, unlike the other guy and absolutely nothing clicks in their heads. Nothing.
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Look, I don't believe Biden is dropping out, but I believe he's more likely to drop out today than he was yesterday.
A source says Zients will emphasize “importance of keep doing the work and executing on our mission”
But it comes amid outrage from some staff over transparency about Biden and his ability to do the job
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HAVING LOTS OF MONEY TO BURN IN THE FINAL WEEKS OF A MAJOR CAMPAIGN IS ACTUALLY A GOOD THING AND I'M NOT CERTAIN WHEN WE DECIDED THAT IT WASN'T.
Good GOTV costs money. A great GOTV costs even more.
Great is that finally enough? Can we start just campaigning with normal people now? At a certain point there are diminishing returns.
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We will go to bed on election night knowing that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are the winners.
Give me your most out-of-pocket and boldest take on the election. No holds-barred.
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Look, it's a special election, so caveats galore, but where is this giant Black Dem voter exodus the polls are assuring is happening in November? It has not shown up one time, but it's going to *JUST* for trump in November?
With Newark all in, McIver wins the CD10 portion of it 92-4%. Biden won that 93-7% in 2020.
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I'll just get it out of the way now.
No, this story isn't going to help trump. We've been down this road. Nobody cares. No one thinks he's a victim.
Okay? Cool.
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@stevenfilms1998
@ChiCyph80
Yeah, she is. To the broader electorate of who votes in Presidential elections, she absolutely is unknown.
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Okay, but if you're taking this account seriously, it's on you
In case anyone still cares, here's a short thread on how an online rumor takes off:
Amid rumors that Taylor Swift or Beyonce would perform at the DNC, this blue check account with 600,000 followers tweeted at 12:28 PM CT that a "big surprise" was on the way. The tweet took off.
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This is what I mean when I say this feels like 2008. People had Bush/Republican fatigue and it didn't really show up in the data until around this point in the election.
Talked w/an Independent voter in her 40s today: "I don't like some of her policies, but I align with a LOT less with him than her. Can we just get back to being reasonable? Big tax breaks for billionaires on the backs of people like me ISN'T reasonable. I'm all in for Kamala."
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So, with 29 days left in the campaign, trump is wasting two days in solid Blue Colorado and California.
Cool with me
Trump heading to Aurora, Colorado this Friday—the city that has been second only to Springfield as a target for his anti-immigrant attacks
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And something I'm thinking about hard is that I think the Harris campaign is thinking about bigger margins now. They don't want this election to get to a point where courts can step in with close margins. SCOTUS is unhinged and better to win by 3+ than ~1.
I think there are more upsides to Harris going on Rogan than downsides. She's looking to appeal to a wider range of voters than Trump, who has no desire to broaden his coalition.
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If trump was up by 4%+ nationally and was leading in enough states to get 270+ I can't imagine there'd be whining and crying. Can you all stop acting like a) you know what you're doing and b) that we're losing this election?
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Lol if you think Cohn and Siena have any idea what's going on in this election, I don't know what to tell you
#New
NYT General election poll
ARIZONA
🔴 Trump: 50% (+5)
🔵 Harris: 45%
Last poll (8/15) - 🔵 Harris +5
——
NORTH CAROLINA
🔴 Trump: 49% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 47%
Last poll (8/15) - 🔵 Harris +2
——
GEORGIA
🔴Trump: 49% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 45%
Last poll (8/15) - 🔴 Trump +4
——
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Trump should not go back to Arizona again during the campaign.
After a string of good polls for Trump there, Harris leads in two Arizona surveys today
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Cao was supposed to be one of the top-tier Republican Senate recruits...
Hung Cao makes a disgusting claim that the military doesn't "want" LGBTQ+-friendly people.
#VASen
"That's not the people we want. Like, what, what we need is alpha males and alpha females who are gonna rip out their own guts, eat them..."
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@DrewSav
has been saying this for years.
The share of voters who say they will definitely not vote for Donald Trump has effectively been the same for the last 18 months.
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I'm sure this is just more bad news for Harris.
In states that are tracking it, women are now outpacing men by 11 points in the early vote, and the gap appears to be widening.
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