God-Emperor Joe Brandon
@Alejandro27Ale
Followers
911
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J.D./MBA and overall politics geek. Perpetually losing my metamask trust wallet.
California, USA
Joined February 2021
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Send us removal request.
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I get the "you shouldn't undermine the Court's institutional credibility" takes, but that ship sailed when the GOP got eight years in the WH and five SCOTUS seats despite the majority of the American people rejecting them and the R senators who confirmed their nominees.
We cannot and we will not allow an out of control Supreme Court working in conjunction with Republican officials pushing an extremist agenda to take away our freedoms and our personal autonomy.
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As a frat guy, let me just say this: backing Trump defeats the purpose of being in a fraternity.
Like, my brothers in christ, you joined a frat to get with college girls and there's nothing college-educated women hate more than Trump.
Enjoy celibacy boys.
University of Alabama fraternity saying they’re committing their life to Trump and Fuck Kamala.
Seems like a nice group of white bois.
Awesome for the resume!
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How fucking bad are you down in your internals if you're tweeting this shit?
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Two things are true:
1) We can and should empathize with Palestinians and help to minimize civilian casualties.
2) Their "advocates" here in America are largely annoying gadflies that the public fucking hates.
Rally kicking off. In Milwaukee, organizers said they were expecting 5k and got around 1k. Here they were expecting 30-40k, rally (which will turn into a march at 2) clearly smaller than that.
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The difference between the two parties?
The GOP mocked her husband being beaten with a hammer, made jokes about her bust size, and insinuated that the whole situation was due to a gay lovers quarrel.
She is wishing him well.
As one whose family has been the victim of political violence, I know firsthand that political violence of any kind has no place in our society. I thank God that former President Trump is safe.
As we learn more details about this horrifying incident, let us pray that all those
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To everyone who blew the debate up into a giant, multi-cycle-dominating issue: great fucking job.
We took what was a clearly survivable setback and made it into the biggest story of the summer.
Regardless of it's Joe or Kamala, the damage you have done is incalculable.
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He's right.
Your neurotic dooming is what gives the NYT and CNN an incentive to write these articles.
Freaking out non stop over a shit debate performance is literally having a negative impact on our electoral prospects because of the incentive structure it creates.
I am not saying I advocate this but I would bet that if Democrats shut up for like five days aside from saying they still support Biden and let him do a couple of interviews that go fine then this dies down by like 75%.
Worst case scenario, your solution is clearly revealed.
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@RonFilipkowski
Translation: "I ran away from people protesting racial discrimination outside my residence, which means there's approximately zero chance that I would pickup arms to defend my country."
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God he's such a ball-knower in a crowd of doomers.
"But the AZ polls-"
Bitch, we've seen three straight cycles of GOP erosion in AZ, but that's gonna stop/revert post-Dobbs?
Use common sense.
@Prolemasses
I think Harris wins Arizona by more than a point and less than Kelly's 2022 margin, and I think it could very well be her best swing state.
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@schlagteslinks
He is the resist lib id made manifest. You can accuse Gavin of being disingenuous about a lot of things, but his hatred of the GOP is realer than Don Jr.'s coke habit.
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Here's a deal I'd make in a heartbeat:
Biden steps aside for Kamala and in return, the Obama bros--who fucked us six ways to Sunday and destroyed our entire bench to the point it took us nearly a decade to rebuild party infrastructure--promise to exit public life forever.
It’ll be amusing in a sort of twisted, evil way if Obama’s legacy ultimately is two Trump terms.
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@JoJoFromJerz
"There's more of us."
Your party hasn't won the popular vote in nearly two decades.
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The coup is fucking over. If you were going to knife Biden, you had to have a critical mass of dems do it within 72 hours of the debate when the momentum was with you.
There is a > 95% chance that he will be the nominee and so many of you insist we spend our time trashing him.
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If you went from "wow, we're gonna win, look at all this energy behind Kamala!" to "it's over, the NYT/Siena poll that dictates the structure of the universe shows Trump leading; we shouldn't even have an election," then you're just an idiot.
No more sugarcoating stupidity.
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Biden+1 but Kaine+12?
Fuck it, I'm a full-blown poll denialist at this point.
📊 VIRGINIA POLL: Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D)
🟦 Joe Biden 43%
🟥 Donald Trump 42%
⬜ Undecided 14%
—
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine 48%
🟥 Hung Cao 36%
⬜ Undecided 16%
—
Job approval
Sen. Kaine: 54-28 (+26)
Gov. Youngkin: 53-36 (+17)
Trump recalled: 47-49 (-2)
Pres. Biden:
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@JanNWolfe
@Popehat
"Yeah so, like, we spent money for the whole coup thing but we don't want to spend money paying for us to face judgement for the whole coup thing, ya feel?"
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@DamnedTherapist
Sorry, I forgot. I was too busy trying to remind people to vote so we don't have another Politico headline about 50,000 pregnant rape victims being forced to give birth to their rapist's child.
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Joe Biden is still favored to win the election.
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I'd take Adam over a thousand tankies any day.
This is what a goddamn patriot looks like.
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Every single person here saying "we're doomed" is:
1) Wrong
2) Fundamentally lacks an understanding of how uniquely toxic this GOP is. How many goddamn election cycles do we have to run before you see that the MAGA movement is paying a big penalty for extremism?
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@Thorongil16
Pro-life antivaxxers being the reason abortion is legal is a twist that seems perfectly at home in this weird ass era in politics
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Yeah we talk a lot about Trump being Teflon and I think a lot of us agree that he actually could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose many votes, but the same is true of the anti-Trump coalition.
Biden could be on a ventilator in hospice and Trump still wouldn't crack 50%
I would literally vote for any person, animal or inanimate object over Trump.
1. Live Biden
2. Harris
3. Hillary
4. Gavin
5. Whitmer
6. Life-support Biden
7. My dog
8. Cactus
9. Pineapple
10. Budweiser Clydesdale
11. Dead Biden
12. Clint Eastwood’s empty chair
13. Any empty chair
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@TWLadyGrey
@Nate_Cohn
@mattyglesias
Two things can be true at once:
1) Gerrymandering is a bad practice that helps insulate politicians from popular blowback; and
2) Unilateral disarmament--Ds not gerrymandering while Rs do it--is more dangerous than ever given the authoritarian tilt of the GOP
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@KINGMATT9914
No, it wasn't. While I'm skeptical of the polls, the ones taken immediately after the event and in the week following showed little to no movement towards Trump.
Then the dem freak out began and we've had intraparty infighting be THE story for three weeks
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@triciacotham
@Riley_Gaines_
You are a vile human being who deserves every bit of social opprobrium being thrown your way. At least your R colleagues genuinely believe this--just six months ago you ran on the exact opposite platform. Your ideology didn't change--your desire for power overcame it.
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@FresnoCountyGOP
No, we're purposefully importing trans Guatemalan feminists to teach your children about gender theory, not to vote for democrats.
We earn our votes the old-fashioned way: by getting
@billintheburbs
to register voters at the local cemetery.
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@electionsjoe
Hey, Newsom wasn't spectacular but at least he didn't underperform his state's partisan lean by *20 points* like a certain New York governor who lost double digit Biden seats...
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Since I see this topic come up a lot On Here, here's a simple way to visualize why Republican candidates frequently underperform the generic ballot:
What voters think a "generic Republican" looks like vs. what an actual "generic Republican" looks like.
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@Gunlord500
@Thorongil16
Mark Udall, senator from Colorado who was beaten by Cory Gardner by two points in 2014 after running on a platform that heavily emphasized the fact that Republicans would restrict abortion.
Many mocked him at the time.
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@DougJBalloon
"No president has ever nominated a Supreme Court justice a year after our party attempted a coup."
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He's right. If you think Colorado, a safe blue state with four of the most college educated counties in the nation--is a tossup, you might want to consider that your polling might be off
(I don't believe these numbers. There is no way Colorado was basically a tossup pre-debate, and these are much much worse for Biden than public polling numbers. They're also not internals from *his* campaign. However:)
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"Trump is stronger and more popular than 2016 Trump."
In what world is a post J6/Dobbs/felony conviction Trump stronger than 2016 Trump?
Trump is stronger and more popular than 2016 Trump, but Dems have fewer candidate problems too.
Harris fav/unfav basically even in swing states. At this point, Clinton was getting damaging WikiLeaks email stories every single day; Harris's scandal this week is rambling answers.
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@amyewalter
You know Amy, maybe--just maybe--this speech is a little more aggressive than usual because the guy who tried to do a coup and then got indicted for it is threatening to end the American experiment.
Be better.
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This image was taken with the specific intent of convincing my mother to donate her life savings to a Harris SuperPAC
It’s my wife, and it’s now or never. Election’s coming in November.
Thanks for supporting Kamala,
@JonBonJovi
!
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@schlagteslinks
I'm really sick of people pretending that this race is a tossup and that we can't state the plain truth that dems are clear-but-not-prohibitive favorites.
This isn't a 50-50 race.
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I don't think Georgia or North Carolina are Lean R states
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If you really believe this then you are simply too stupid to provide any useful commentary to the ET community.
NEW: Internal Democrat polling post-debate has Biden down DOUBLE digits in swing districts NY-17 (R-Lawler) and NY-19 (R-Molinaro), and down a point in NY-22 (R-Williams)-- all districts Biden carried in 2020, per party source.
The three competitive upstate/suburban districts
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@lordpet8
@PNWPragmatist
Conservatives need California to be a communist failed state because the idea that the most prosperous, most influential, and most populous state in the union is a D+25 economic powerhouse is something that directly contradicts their messaging.
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@FrankFigliuzzi1
To paraphrase a certain former president: they're not sending us their best.
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Nah, I'm a man and my sense of masculinity compels me to support and protect communities that would be needlessly and cruelly hurt by the evils of a Trump presidency.
I'm a man, and I'm proudly voting for an accomplished black woman for president.
Men are fucking mad.
Black Men
White Men
Chinese Men
Indian Men
Republican Men
Even Democrat Men
ALL MEN
And they are all supporting AND donating to Donald Trump.
Coconuts are fucked.
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@lxeagle17
@nytimes
Also worth noting that the GOP candidates won't be able to stop themselves from articulating a crazy position on abortion. If they were silent, it might not do as much damage, but there's no way the base let's them avoid taking a hard line policy position.
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@TWLadyGrey
@maxberger
Just got into this debate with someone. If the Court is overturning Roe then they will overturn a federal statute. It won't do anything.
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Every word of this.
If you're a dem candidate talking about a "Trump landslide" if Biden stays in the race, no one should take you seriously. The Rs have a very, very hard cap on the vote share they can receive from the electorate and if you think Trump wins the NPV, you're high
@McKay4Senate
I think the same applies to Biden himself, by the way. Yeah he's old and people think he can't do the job and his approvals are garbage, but Trump is polarizing enough that Biden could stroke out in October and still receive 47-48% of the vote in every swing state
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@Thorongil16
I hate to tell Rs, but the popular vote is safe D for 2024, only question is the margin
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@DougJBalloon
I'm assuming this will unironically be Susan Collins' position within the next few weeks.
And I'm sure she'll be 'shocked' when GOP legislatures try to ban contraceptives anyway.
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"Neck-and-neck senate race."
Zoo, now.
NEW: A brutal battle is playing out in Pennsylvania's neck-and-neck Senate race, with the GOP plotting an onslaught of ads and Democrats fighting to hold the seat.
@mkraju
hits the trail and goes one on one with
@Bob_Casey
&
@DaveMcCormickPA
.
#InsidePolitics
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Ehhhhhh, less confident in the landslide (Biden+6 or more), but still very confident that he'll take the W.
Who else still thinks Joe Biden is going to win by a landslide in November?
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Everyone who dooms over the NYT/Siena poll is being sent straight to the gulag.
Stop taking the numbers at face value without stopping to ask if they make sense first and line up with other indicators.
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@JasonKander
You are one of the best men to have ever worked in politics, but you are wrong here. Biden was chosen by tens of millions of democratic base voters who believe in his vision for the country. Instead of using your platform to quiet needless panic, you are pouring gas on the fire.
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@schlagteslinks
@pelhamfall
The amount of people on here who convinced themselves that Biden was doomed because Nate Cohn showed Trump winning in an R+6, Obama-esque blowout was fucking insane.
"My polls/model said-"
Your polls/model are wrong.
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2018 me: "I think AOC is unqualified for office but I look forward to Schiff chairing the intelligence committee!"
2024 me: "I hate Adam Schiff but think AOC is a based queen with better political instincts than all the bedwetting shitlibs combined."
AOC on IG Live: "If you think there is consensus among people who want Joe Biden to leave, and they will support Kamala, you are mistaken...a lot of them are not just interested in removing the president, they are interested in removing the old ticket."
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Her: "Date night tomorrow?"
Me: "Babe, I already told you: election nights are for the boys."
Her: "...why are you the way you are?"
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Call me crazy, but I don't think Trump will overperform Brian Kemp with black voters 🤷♂️
Compared to CBS's last Georgia poll
Topline
March: Trump 51-Biden 48
Now: Trump 51-Harris 49
White voters
March: Trump 69-30
Now: Trump 69-31
Black voters
March: Biden 82-17
Now: Harris 83-15
Trump @ 15% would still be historic by modern standards Even Kemp didn't come close
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Basically just me,
@schlagteslinks
, and
@pelhamfall
. The fight was lonely but dammit we stayed strong.
The belief that Joe Biden actually still had a decent chance of beating Donald Trump had he stayed in the race
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This sounds suspiciously close to flirting with an endorsement
Mitt Romney: Last night’s debate was classic Trump. In the case of Kamala Harris, people saw she's a capable and intelligent person
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@SarahLongwell25
Are you even a man if you haven't incited an insurrection at least once in your life?
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All this tells me is that a sizable chunk of Biden "disapprovers" liked him but didn't want him to run again.
And I'd bet dollars to donuts they would have come home in November.
Joe Biden Approval Polling:
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 41%
Net: +2%
Redfield / Sept 26, 2024 / n=2500
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@LittleMammith
Leftists: "How can you be so heartless and give Biden blanket support after the tragedies of the war in Gaza?"
Dems: "How can you be heartless and tell your gay friends, pregnant rape victims, minority communities, and the climate to pound sand because of your pet issue?"
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Imagine where we'd be at if dems hadn't spent the past three weeks pussyfooting around and making themselves the story.
Imagine three weeks of our party completely focused on abortion, Trump's criminality, and Project 2025.
#Latest
@FiveThirtyEight
Forecast:
Chance of winning:
Biden 53%
Trump 46%
.
Electoral votes:
Biden 276
Trump 262
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@ScottWalker
Your legacy is fading before your eyes. Goodbye and good riddance, you Trump-fluffing hack.
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He's right. Also worth noting: post debate polls didn't really show Trump gaining with the coveted "independent" group, it just showed them switching from Biden to "undecided."
Wanna guess how voters who disapprove of both parties have been breaking post Dobbs?
Let’s not forget this too
Biden received more votes than any Democratic-incumbent president in the history of Democratic primaries
Sure seems like the base is with him
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I see so many people I respect on here getting tunnel vision because of the polls and it's really sad.
This is not a decision that should be taken based on the polls. But it's a decision that, if taken, will almost certainly be taken based on the polls.
That's how powerful the Poll Mind Virus has gotten.
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I'd much rather we spend our time taking the fight to the GOP on our strongest issue but Pelosi and Schumer have decided to revive the "Biden should step aside" for another three weeks.
Either come out with a joint statement declaring you want him gone or shut the fuck up.
Texas woman who went into septic shock after being denied an abortion because of Donald Trump: “My husband and I are now desperately trying to start a family through IVF but JD Vance voted against protecting IVF... I am one of many women whose life has been put at risk because of
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Lot of people on here who I lost respect for after behaving like this; as if we hadn't lived through the midterms, 2023, and a ton of special elections where dems absolutely dominated the GOP among voters.
I'm sure those people would have suddenly flipped to Trump for reasons.
@schlagteslinks
@Alejandro27Ale
“We need someone else besides Biden so the polling will make me, an implacable megadoomer, feel more reassured- any other candidate would be beating Trump by double digits.”
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We just came off an election where the losing candidate staged a violent coup and you can bet your bank account that he'll try it again if he loses in November.
And he will cite your precious polls as evidence of his win.
It's never been more important for you to get it right.
Polls aren't fun tools for you to play with. They are instruments that purport to accurately measure public sentiment and heavily influence on decisions taken by politicians and policymakers, which end up affecting millions of lives.
This isn't a game. Who gets elevated matters.
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Also, like, he downplayed the threat of a second Trump term and imo that's one of the few things that is disqualifying for any Democrat...
Guy who wants Jared Golden to lose so that
1. He won't be the Democratic nominee for ME-SEN in 2026
2. His loss would be yet another instance of ticket-splitting declining even in wacky states like Maine, and might haunt Susan Collins so strongly that she's scared into retiring
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@Olivia_Beavers
That woman helped spread the vile lies that led to an assault on the Capitol.
Delete your account.
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Barring a recession or a major scandal, Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to win reelection in a rematch against Donald Trump.
Trump lost by 4.5 points/7 million votes as an incumbent--since then we've had J6, Dobbs, and two felony indictments. A dem landslide is on the table.
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Jesus christ people, seek help.
This is literally just polling tunnel vision.
Trump has stalled Harris’ surge. He’s pulled even and may be inching ahead.
Tuesday night is huge, more for her than him.
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I can't believe I'm saying this but... based Donald Trump?
“We cannot let these people win Pennsylvania, that includes
@DaveMcCormickPA
.” - Trump 🥰
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@schlagteslinks
HOLY SHIT SOMEONE WHO ACTUALLY KNOWS BALL?!?!
My hot take is that the polls have demonstrably understated dem party performance for two years and this election is not even really going to be all that close 🤷🏼♂️
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Man, fuck you if you think like this. There's no fucking around when it comes to Trump; if we lose this election, we let the fascists take us the way of Hungary.
It's your choice to tell your gay friends and pregnant women to get fucked, but we can and will call you out for it.
BREAKING: As
@DrJillStein
looks on, Jill Stein endorser, Hassan Abdel Salam, admits their goal is for Donald Trump to win the election.
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Plot twist:
The special guest is Melania and she will be announcing her divorce from Donald Trump and subsequent engagement to Hunter Biden.
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@schlagteslinks
No no, you don't understand. Obviously Arizona whites are concerned about the border while Nevada whites place a much bigger focus on abortion!
That's the only possible explanation, otherwise we might have to admit that Nate Cohn is wrong!
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Yes, because it is a well-known fact that Democratic elites are rarely if ever influenced by legacy media.
My humble message for everyone enraged at the news media right now: This crisis of faith in Biden's capabilities is not a media creation; Democratic party officials are the ones driving this conversation
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Me,
@schlagteslinks
, and
@pelhamfall
pounding the table as we watch people realize that Nate Cohn is washed af
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@schlagteslinks
I'd be a lot more sympathetic to the "throw it in the average" people if they actually threw it in the average instead of treating NYT/Siena as THE poll that defines the state of the race.
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@schlagteslinks
He also has a 40% chance to be the first republican in two decades to win the popular vote! People love convicted felons who helped overturn Roe and tried a violent coup because they're moderate and electable!
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1) Rashida Tlaib can kiss my ass.
2) We're facing down an aspiring fascist and you're conditioning your support on Kamala's Gaza policy instead of telling people just to vote for her?
3) If you say she's enabling genocide, we fucking boot your ass.
Rep Rashida Tlaib—
Constituents want permanent ceasefire, end funding of genocide in Gaza; humane immigration system; path to end fossil fuel subsidies; fight corporate greed; more.
Supports transparent, open convention & DNC vote on arms embargo to stop Israeli gov't war crimes.
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@mattyglesias
NYT has major problems--particularly in the editorial section--but it is still rightly the newspaper of record for America. They put out a lot of good journalism, and that work should be recognized
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@GetTheJabs
@WorkEmail17
@ccadelago
I'm on the more moderate end of the spectrum, but honestly I'm proud to vote for this man again in November. California has it's problems, sure, but instead of waging BS culture wars, Newsom is getting things done and taking the fight to the GOP and their radical ideas
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He incited an attack on the Capitol in order to overturn the will of 81 million voters because he was upset that he lost an election, Jared.
We can start by dropping hyperbolic threats about the stakes of this election. It should not be misleadingly portrayed as a struggle between democracy or authoritarianism, or a battle against fascists or socialists bent on destroying America. These are dangerous lies. 8/10
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Seriously, we're so fucking done.
I will not leave another 50,000 rape victims to cruel fates in red states because you spiteful little shits want to treat Palestine like it's the be all, end all issue.
On behalf of all of us: shut the fuck up.
After Harris called out the protesters, the rally crowd gave her a standing ovation and a good 30 seconds of cheers.
I don’t think Democrats have much to lose by alienating these people.
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Ding ding ding!
This isn't a safe D race and Kamala by no means has this in the bag! That said, you'd have to be willfully ignorant or contrarian not to conclude that dems are favored.
It's not a 50-50 race; it's a 70-30 race.
This. I don't think Harris is the overwhelming favorite, yet, but she is the clear favorite right now. Again, I fully believe pollsters are herding and that the state of the race is nowhere near 50/50.
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@Timodc
I love you and the Bulwark, Tim, but remind me how Pete, our greatest communicator, did in the primaries?
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@tomozCali
This makes me so happy.
Primarily because women will continue to be able to make their own choice on this issue.
...but also because conservative politicians just got owned hard by their own voters.
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