Josh Kalla
@j_kalla
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Associate Professor of Political Science and Data Science @Yale / @ISPSYale . Pittsburgh native. Married to @armon . 🏳️🌈
New Haven / Seattle
Joined June 2011
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🚨NEW PREPRINT w/
@dbroockman
. We conducted a real-world experiment to study the effects of partisan media. In Sept 2020, we paid people who normally watch Fox News to instead watch CNN. Median person was paid $15/hour for 7 hrs/week for 4 wks to watch CNN. Thread on results 1/
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Important and provocative finding from
@seth_j_hill
: "when cities raise their minimum wage by 10%, relative homeless counts increase by three to four percent." Full paper at
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New working paper: "Which narrative strategies durably reduce prejudice? Evidence from field and survey experiments supporting the efficacy of perspective-getting" (w/
@dbroockman
)
Draft is here: Comments welcome!
A brief thread...
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Lots of smart people are dunking on McCain for not supporting paid leave sooner. This strikes me as bad politics. McCain has a compelling story modeling opinion change that she wants to share on national TV. Progressives should be embracing her rather than scoring Twitter points
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We found that shifting people's media slants from Fox to CNN: (1) made them care more about COVID; (2) learn different information about current events; (3) become more supportive of vote-by-mail; and (4) become more negative towards Trump/GOP 4/
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Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS) is launching a grant for grad students and those <3 years post-PhD. Winning projects will be ~2x as large as standard TESS study. Great opportunity to collect survey experimental data. More details at
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Yale Political Science is seeking several faculty (open rank) in American, Comparative, Pol Econ, and/or IR. Broad search, but we particularly encourage those with Japanese or Middle East expertise to apply.
#PoliSciJobs
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This study shows more than how CNN benefits Dems and Fox benefits GOP. It shows how partisan media hides and filters information from viewers, thereby undermining the electorate's ability to hold their elected officials accountable. 10/
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Oh dear. There have been two major cases of scientific fraud linked to Dan Ariely in the past month. Is Duke University investigating for a broader pattern of fraudulent research? This is serious (1) (2)
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These results are surprising given who participated in the study: at baseline, these participants were strong Republicans who liked Trump and Fox and really disliked CNN. However, being paid to watch CNN still managed to change their beliefs and opinions 7/
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Wow, Trump is totally dominating spending on direct mail. While there’s lots of attention to TV and digital spends, I’m glad to see there’s a firm tracking physical mail too. Mail may seem old-fashioned in 2024, but it is still a big campaign tactic!
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As
@mattyglesias
notes in his
@bopinion
piece, this suggests that nobody is impossible to reach, persuasion (even if limited) is possible 8/
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If you've made it this far, hope you'll read the working paper. Feel free to email any questions or comments. Thanks! END/
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Yale Political Science has even more jobs!
1 Normative Theory
2 AfAm Studies & PLSC
3 American
4 CP/PE/IR
5 South Asian
6 IR
Yale Political Science is seeking to hire multiple faculty (open rank) in American Politics () and in IR/CP/PE jointly with the Jackson School of Global Affairs (). Review of applications will begin September 15
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Really unfortunate these bioethicists are so opposed to human challenge trials. Not only could HCTs have saved lives by developing a COVID vaccine faster, but HCTs are incredibly popular among the mass public. Normal people think they're ethical -- see
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This is an excellent
@ezraklein
op-ed, featuring the work of lots of great political scientists. I love this line from
@amyelerman
:
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New paper w/
@adamsethlevine
&
@dbroockman
. We test if a strategy of personalized moral reframing in a door-to-door canvass can shift abortion attitudes. We find large effects on interest in taking action and some evidence of changes in policy attitudes. Forthcoming
@The_JOP
listening first for voters’ moral values when canvassing & tailoring appeals to those moral values had large effects on interest in taking action & some evidence of changes in policy attitudes
#polisciresearch
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Check out our new field experiment testing the persuasive effect of TV ads on prejudice and issue opinions (open access: )
How do TV ads by interest groups affect their viewers’ opinions on issues? In their new
@APSRjournal
letter,
@j_kalla
&
@dbroockman
find that interest group ads influence viewers’ ability to recall the ads and learn facts but had limited impact on…
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A really interesting finding: the treatment group became more aware of bias towards Fox. We found a 5pp *decrease* in agreement with the statement: "If Donald Trump did something bad, Fox News would discuss it" 6/
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Very proud (and jealous) of my sister who got vaccinated today after having worked tirelessly in a Chicago ER -- even after giving birth in July! As we close out 2020, I am glad to see that there is light at the end of the tunnel
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This was an intensive treatment, with 4 weeks of paid exposure to CNN. Quite different from, e.g., 5/
@BrendanNyhan
But my single exposure experiment in a cross-sectional survey design finds no effect
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Yale Political Science is seeking to hire multiple faculty (open rank) in American Politics () and in IR/CP/PE jointly with the Jackson School of Global Affairs (). Review of applications will begin September 15
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Broadly speaking, during this time, CNN focused overwhelmingly on problems with COVID and racism and Trump's purported failings on these issues. Fox instead focused on violence from BLM protests, Biden/Dem support for protests, and downplaying the severity of COVID 3/
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Check out Amanda's job market paper and her other great work on quant methods, research ethics, and American political behavior ().
@aweisstweets
is on the political science and public policy job markets this year!
🚨 Job Market Paper alert!
"How Much Should We Trust Modern Difference-in-Differences Estimates?" at
I assess the fit between modern DID-style estimators and real-world data features, and point to approaches for improving inference.
Quick thread ⬇️
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If we were to conduct the same experiment today, we would do the opposite: pay CNN viewers to instead watch Fox. For example, CNN may be downplaying inflation relative to Fox: 12/
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It is not obvious to me the best ways to rethink college (and grad school) admissions. This is a worrying finding for the argument to just do away with standardized test scores: “Results show that essays have a stronger correlation to reported household income than SAT scores.”
As colleges shift toward test-optional admissions, essays will become more important.
This computational analysis of 60,000 applications to UC finds essay characteristics correlate even more closely with family income than SAT scores. (via
@mitchellatedf
)
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Yale Political Science has three searches this year:
1) Omnibus in AP, CP, PE, IR:
2) Quantitative Political Science with substantive expertise in AP, CP, PE, IR:
3) South Asian Politics:
Apply by 9/15!
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But, these effects may have declined after the payments stopped. However, wide confidence intervals leave these results ambiguous 9/
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New research with
@dbroockman
. Thread below
NEW w
@j_kalla
at
@mattyglesias
' "Slow Boring":
What's better than calling Trump weird? Convincing voters Harris is normal
In survey testing 76 messages w >100k people, we find:
- anti-Trump messages doesn't work
- pro-Harris messages do, especially "typical" Dem messages 🧵
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Kudos to the NYT data viz team for sharing a graphical meta-analysis on the employment effects of minimum wage laws. It does a great job communicating how the CBO projection is quite an outlier
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Such a horrible loss. Frances was an incredible colleague and mentor, the soul of the department. My heart goes out to her family. May her memory be a blessing
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Honored that President
@SaloveyPeter
featured my research with
@dbroockman
on deep canvassing in his Opening Assembly Address to the
@Yale
College Class of 2027
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@mattyglesias
has a good piece covering the experiment (). You can read the full preprint at 2/
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New working paper w/
@dbroockman
demonstrating how “deep canvassing” can reduce affective polarization among the implementing canvassers. 🧵👇
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We've got a new working paper asking whether first listening to someone facilitates greater persuasion in interpersonal dialogue. See
@dbroockman
's thread for more detail. Comments welcome!
NEW PAPER w/
@eriksantoro
@j_kalla
@ronchuli
There's a widespread idea that we will persuade other people more effectively if we listen to them first
The NYT has said it, social psych says it, & my previous research has assumed it
In a new study, we find it's likely wrong 🧵..
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WALL-E jumped on my lap just as this session was beginning. He's passionate about research and overcoming prejudice too!
Excited to host our first feedback session for the winners of the EGAP Latin American Regional Hub Small Grants! Today,
@AbbyCordova0411
&
@NatanSki
discussed their project: “Overcoming Prejudice and Discrimination Against Central American Immigrants in Mexico”.
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Given limited $, we paid Fox viewers to watch CNN, instead of reverse, to test our argument that aligned partisan sources hide information needed for accountability of copartisan politicians (as of Sept 2020, President Trump). 11/
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Want daily access to the BEST PIZZA in America? Apply to the 3 searches Yale PLSC has this year:
1) Omnibus in AP, CP, PE, IR:
2) Quant PLSC w/ substantive expertise in AP, CP, PE, IR:
3) South Asian:
BREAKING: Pizza Today has named Modern Apizza in New Haven, Connecticut, the 2023 Pizzeria of the Year. Congrats to Bill Pustari, family and his amazing team! Read Modern's story now:
#modernapizza
#pizzeriaoftheyear
#pizzeria
#pizza
#pizzanews
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The PNW is running out of blood and I am still not allowed to donate thanks to outdated FDA regulations that discriminate against the LGBT community
Bloodworks Northwest said there is less than a 24-hour supply in the blood bank's inventory causing a "Code Red" emergency affecting hospitals and trauma centers across the Pacific Northwest.
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TESS is launching another round of its Young Investigator Competition. Deadline for proposals is April 30. More details at
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Why hasn't the AstraZeneca vaccine been approved yet? There is a large, Phase 3 trial showing it safe. And while there are questions as to just how effective it is, there is no doubt that there is meaningful efficacy. Given we're at 3-4k deaths per day, why not use it?
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Now out at
@apsrjournal
: "Voter Outreach Campaigns Can Reduce Affective Polarization among Implementing Political Activists: Evidence from Inside Three Campaigns"
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Even though they may have made the right decision here, Zuck and Dorsey shouldn’t be the arbiters of what can be said.
We need to change how we regulate social media platforms. What are some proposals to read about? Is it just anti-trust?
If you are concerned by Murdoch's control of media (🙋♂️), the power Zuckerberg and Dorsey have to censor should make you incredibly nervous. Free speech becomes meaningless if a handful of billionaire gatekeepers become the ultimate arbiters of what can be said.
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New paper with awesome first-year graduate student
@micahanglais
. In it, we explore whether Democrats' use of race framing is beneficial to progressive causes (short answer: no). Comments welcome on this early draft! See below for a thread, full paper at
Democrats have started using racial justice framing to promote their progressive policies (eg, student debt relief is good b/c it will close the racial wealth gap). Is this language helpful for their causes? In a new working paper with
@j_kalla
, we find NO
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Interesting RCT finding *null* effects of digital ads on voter registration and turnout in 2020. Perhaps some small effects among Black Females (though likely not robust to multiple comparison adjustments) and precisely no effect among Black Males or Latinx Males/Females
🧵 In 2019 + 2020, VFP founder
@TatendaCheryl
built and ran a $12.5M program to register and mobilize Black and Latina voters at
@anotheracronym
1/3
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As CNN starts using mail to recruit survey respondents, check out this research with
@dbroockman
and
@al_yan1
on some best practices
This new polling is our first using a new methodological approach, outlined here.
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New paper w
@dbroockman
"Selective Exposure and Partisan Echo Chambers In Television News Consumption"
We ask: 1) how many people watch partisan TV news? 2) who are these people 3) what else do they watch?
See below for a thread, paper at
NEW w
@j_kalla
Skeptics say partisan TV doesn't matter b/c few watch, viewers extreme anyway & they watch other news
w/ new data, we show this is WRONG
1 in 7 Americans watch >8hrs/mo partisan TV
They're not already extreme
They're in echo chambers
🧵
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"Six years after random assignment (i.e., five years after expected high school graduation), 55% of Bottom Line students had graduated with a bachelor’s degree versus 47% of control group students...The estimated per-student cost of Bottom Line is approximately $4,000."
Blockbuster results we’ve been hoping for: an RCT of
@BottomLineOrg
found that the program, which provides 1-on-1 guidance to help low-income students get into and graduate college, increased rates of bachelor's degree receipt by 8 percentage points
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Yale
@ISPSYale
is hosting an Election Prediction Competition for
@YaleCollege
undergraduates. More information and sign-up:
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First in-person seminar in two years! Thanks for having me out to
@MITSloan
@deaneckles
. I missed the energy of being back in a room together
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Do I know anyone who lives near Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany? A dear friend's family managed to flea Afghanistan but they are stranded and could use some help. Please get in touch if you're in the area
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Excited to welcome Mellissa to
@Yale
Political Science next year!
Now that the job market dust has settled, I’m elated to share that I’m headed to
@Yale
. I’ll be a CSAP postdoc for 2024–2025, then an Assistant Professor of Political Science beginning in 2025. I couldn’t be more grateful for this opportunity & all who helped me get here.
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@IsaacRabbani
@dbroockman
Good question. At least on observables, we see that the subset of people who participated in the RCT look very similar to the larger group we invited to the RCT. Doesn't rule out there being an unmeasured trait, but we don't see anything obvious. See Table OA2 for more details
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Good on Dollar General! Hopefully other employers follow their lead
"Dollar General Corp. is offering employees a deal: Go get a
#Covidvaccine
and receive four hours of pay.
The retailer, which has 157,000 employees, is among the first large U.S. employers to incentivize staff to be vaccinated"
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The state of
@Amtrak
rail is a disgrace. The train from NYC to New Haven has managed to be on time only 3.5% of the time over the past year. The median train arrives 8 minutes late. 19% of trains arrive 20+ minutes late. And yes, today's train is arriving 10 min late
Service Disruption: All services operating in the New York (NYP) area are currently experiencing a delay due to an overhead power issue. We are making every effort to minimize your wait time and resolve the issue as swiftly as possible. Updates to come.
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New working paper with
@dbroockman
and
@seanjwestwood
on the downstream political consequences of affective polarization. See 👇 for a thread. Comments welcome!
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@mattyglesias
Thanks! Glad to have you as a research assistant. Hope you’re excited for me to start asking you to do really tedious data entry!
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@kwcollins
@davidshor
@micahanglais
Yes, we are not testing RCN. RCN is a framework developed by messaging professionals and we did not run our language by them. I'm sure they would have come up with a different message. That's why we call it "race and class" rather than RCN
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Great
@SarahAnzia
paper: Pensions in the Trenches: How Pension Spending Is Affecting U.S. Local Government. Using a random sample of cities, Anzia finds that pension expenditures have increased, leading to the crowding out of public service provision
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Honored to be able to speak today to
@usmayors
#Mayors2022
about my research on partisan media
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We need to stop conceiving of social media companies as just ordinary private corporations. I agree with Neil — treat them like public utilities.
Ok I am worried about the infinite regress here. A power company can’t turn your lights off if you write a blog post about climate change. Hopefully, there is bipartisan support for regulation of tech as public utilities.
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Excited to be working with
@dbroockman
and
@DeshpandePia
on this research!
Just announced! 📣 We've selected 10 research projects for the inaugural ADL Center for Antisemitism Research Fellowship. The fellows will be essential in helping to develop a strategy to address antisemitism & identify interventions to
#FightHateForGood
.
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Nice overview from
@TheEconomist
covering my papers with
@dbroockman
on who watches partisan media and the effects of switching which network someone watches
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Any recent examples out there of using Twitter ads to recruit survey respondents? Looking for any tips and tricks. Thanks!
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Reminder: Yale Political Science has 3 open-rank searches this fall. Apply by September 15 to guarantee full consideration
#PoliSciJobs
Yale Political Science has three searches this year:
1) Omnibus in AP, CP, PE, IR:
2) Quantitative Political Science with substantive expertise in AP, CP, PE, IR:
3) South Asian Politics:
Apply by 9/15!
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Here's a follow-up study on the effect of race, class, and race-class narrative frames on progressive policy support. Hope you'll give it a read! This is ongoing work and will involve further studies, so feedback much appreciated
Back in April,
@j_kalla
and I released a working paper testing the effect of racial equality and class frames on support for progressive policies. This study generated a lot of attention. In response, we decided to run a second study, which we report here
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I hope
@BarackObama
doesn't end up being Reviewer 2!
At
#Disinfo2022
@BarackObama
cites new research on news consumption by
@dbroockman
and
@j_kalla
: "It means we underestimate the degree of pliability in our opinions and our views" ...and can encourage our better angels, which is the goal of a democracy.
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Great thread on a new experiment on the effects of a 2 year non-police public safety intervention. What happens when you create full-time civilian liasions to connect residents to dispute resolution and social services? No effect on crime! State capacity to deliver is a big issue
Looking for alternatives to policing? So was the mayor of Medellin. In 2018, we worked with his govt to choose 80 neighborhoods. In half, the city intensified civilian staff and problem-solving 10-fold, for 2 years. The results were... unexpected.
Paper:
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Interesting read on how selective colleges are (and are not) responding to SCOTUS
Selective colleges have a choice in front of them: boost low-income applicants & achieve whatever diversity goals they have. Or pretend that asking silly admissions questions will do anything. I try to get to the bottom of why they always choose the latter
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@kwcollins
@davidshor
@micahanglais
But the great thing about survey experiments is that they are super easy and cheap to replicate. So if someone has proper RCN language that we could slot in, happy to do a follow-up study
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I grew up at Tree of Life and my parents still belong there. Despite the hatred, I am glad the congregation will be returning
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@maxberger
@daschloz
Mind expanding on what lessons from Schickler Sunrise learned and incorporated into their work? Not trying to be dense, but it isn’t obvious to me. Eric was one of my grad school advisors and I’m a huge fan of his work
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I am looking for a
@ISPSYale
predoc along with
@thekinane
to work on data analysis related to congressional oversight (Christina) and voter persuasion field experiments (me). Please share widely! More details and application at
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This is a really neat/important paper showing how drugs appear more effective when tested in a trial sponsored by that drug’s manufacturer. The main cause is publication bias. Pre-registration manages to overcome this trial sponsorship bias
Cool paper from
@TamarOostrom
on bias of sponsorship in drug trials and the impact of preregistration:
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Great interview on why CT adopted an age-based vaccination program. tl;dr They took the time to talk to providers on the ground who told them that medical/employment eligibility would be too complex, slowing things down
In this Q&A, Josh Geballe ’97 BA, ’02 MBA, Connecticut’s chief operating officer, explains the state’s controversial decision to switch to age-based eligibility for COVID vaccines—and says it likely saved lives
@YaleInsights
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I’m biased, but I don’t think anyone wants to fall in love with colliders
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@JonathanCorbin2
@mjbsp
Footnote 14 of the DataColado post suggests Dan was quite close to the data collection. Why else would his name be in the Excel meta-data?
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For undergrads thinking about applying for a PhD in American politics, check out this ISPS pre-doc fellowship program. Please share broadly with students who might be interested
Announcing our new pre-doc fellowship program! Quantitative research in American politics, partnering w/
@YaleTobinCenter
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Wow, this chart is incredible! Amazing how effective the five main COVID vaccines have been. Hopefully AZ, J&J, and Novavax get approved ASAP
Am often asked about different vaccines and their efficacy
Each trials tracks, reports efficacy differently
Currently, we have preliminary results for Novavax and J&J
But what numbers matter? What should you look for?
Here's one set of data to track. In a simple table
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