Justin Balthrop, PhD
@PhdDfs
Followers
551
Following
130
Media
165
Statuses
11,303
PhD in finance. Former hedge fund guy (never again). +3 handicap golfer. Nba/nfl/pga/markets/gambling
Kansas
Joined May 2019
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Pinned Tweet
Imagine living in a world where if everyone stops buying non-essential things for a month, we enter a perpetual hellscape of death.
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@ericwhiteback
@vicw_32
@KenGoldin
@Topps
@PaniniAmerica
Awww. But I wanted to buy a random team spot for $5,800 in a Flawless break that netted me $19 worth of Sean Elliott autos.
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@BillSimmons
On tonight’s pod:
So
@ryenarussillo
I have this Klay 1st half as the 13th worst west coast shooting guard performance in a game 7 since Derek Harper in 1988. Is that where you had it?
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@TigerTerminal1
@griffingulledge
I know this might be impossible, but maybe instead of arguing word choice, perhaps we could agree that the acts are worthy of attention and some effort to stop? Or is it really important to you to try and debate semantics?
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@themouthmatusow
@Mike_Postle
2 questions:
1- were you on drugs at the time of the interview and if not why did you say you were high many times?
2- if you had only seen 2 hands why did you say that you would’ve played everything exactly the same?
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@ericwhiteback
@ToysRUs
Then someone wiped off the dirt and sold it for $500 to someone who shilled it up to $1200 to someone that fractionalized and graded it, selling 65% to the public at a $25,000 valuation. And in 2024 it will be worth $100.
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@ryenarussillo
Ask Simmons where that ranks in his top 27 home round one playoff games since 1983
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@benbbaldwin
How many of those 3.47 seconds was he facing the opposite way like in a video game dropback?
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@bizarvar
@unusual_whales
Let’s set aside the word inflation for now. I read part of that quote as “government spending is reducing the national debt”. Please justify this using facts.
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@benbbaldwin
I’m trying to think of the analogue to the ignorance required for someone to use “as we’ve seen, a 94% effective vaccine is not 100% effective” as evidence it doesn’t work. And I can’t. It’s the pinnacle.
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@BillSimmons
I agree with most of this. But it is also true that if we delegate the production of facts to a central authority, we are easily exposed to just as many atrocities. For all of the bad that “social media” does, there is an element of good that comes from govt/media accountability
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@PokerProErik
@cherishable91
@edenrockscorp
@RyanFeePoker
@berkey11
@RyanFeePoker
is making a strong case for one of the worst people in quite some time. Bold strategy.
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@BryanMicon
@max_silver
@NickSchulman
I sat up off my couch and paced around the room looking for someone else to talk to. No one was there but I talked anyway. The story needed to be recounted.
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@RealKidPoker
Pretty decent actually. Just saw a guy have his aces cracked by kings after flopping trips with a flush blocker and getting stacked.
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@RealKidPoker
I’d just subscribe to Upswing. But do it now because they are raising the rake.
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@reinhurdler
It’s all about framing. I say he ranks first among all players in rigorous running exercise.
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@_Weyson
@DougPolkVids
Drama (and addiction to) is really the only reason any of this is happening.
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@McClellandShane
Yet another example of “if only the virus could be guaranteed to stay within the groups who aren’t worried about it”.
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@ericwhiteback
I feel like the real headline should be “3-ring binder of cards somehow worth millions”.
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@benbbaldwin
My favorite part of last night’s game is knowing that there are a handful of people who watched it and will move Drew Brees up their mvp board.
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@RealKidPoker
Can’t wait to chase you down in the back halls of the WSOP in 2022 and tell you a bad beat story.
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@Stalingrad_Poor
@neelkashkari
The stripper scene in The Big Short is going to be child’s play soon.
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@adamlevitan
Don’t forget, as Booger said, when he lines up at TE, he’s either going to stay in and block or go out in the pass route.
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@QTRResearch
@ChrisTayeh
I don’t understand how a single human entrusts this man with a single dollar.
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@Andrew_Smith36
@TheMasters
The masters is the only tournament that literally allows you to watch every single player or any custom group of players, or 3 different sets of specific holes (amen corner/15-16/4-6). What else do you want?
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@ericwhiteback
@Topps
Just promise me he’s not a great grand newphew of the CEO of Topps or Backyard Breaks or something :)
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@TJHernandez
“You know, Joe, I understand the analytics crowd wants to see Steph shoot 3s. And he’s shooting 40% from long range but what the spreadsheet guys fail to mention is that he shoots 50% from 2. So you tell me.”
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I don’t understand how “retail” can see this and still believe that THEY are the ones in charge. You. Are. Exit. Liquidity.
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@JenShahade
It’s a good thing he didn’t put it on poker Twitter. He’s have 500 mentions berating him so much he wouldn’t come back again. 450 of them would’ve never cashed an event.
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@friscojosh
Ok ok. You have to know this one.
Eagles line up 5 wide on third down. Empty backfield.
Booger: “the eagles have gotten away from the RPO that Pedersen made famous with Foles....let’s see if they get back to it on this third down”
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Basic financial literacy doesn’t exist in most people and it’s at least in part because of the propaganda-based way information is calculated and/or presented. Stuff is more expensive and there are no full time jobs but try explaining that to the headlines for jobs and inflation
"Inflation Cooled in January"
LOL. At this point you've gotta appreciate WSJ's commitment to the bit.
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@benbbaldwin
The irony is that there is not a single person alive on planet earth who simultaneously has this take AND is mentally capable of understanding a discussion around the answers to these questions.
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@benbbaldwin
It’s quite simple actually.
1- don’t understand analytics
2- look at them
3- select Carson wentz
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@BillSimmons
I remember when I went (2009) all I could think about was how it reminded me of my top 11 most underrated 1988 Celtics moments.
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@worstcontrarian
@MikeMcDonald89
As a former trader/PM turned professor I just skip the chapter on market efficiency altogether now. The nuance is just lost on people.
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@KirkegaardEmil
@Stalingrad_Poor
Out of pure morbid curiosity I want to meet someone whose life decisions resulted in a job on the “Lockheed Martin Slack Committee”
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@DougPolkVids
The other part is because you guys are both addicted to the attention that comes with doing these things in the (poker) public eye.
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@PugilistFanatic
@Keitek85
@024601
@DianaKalai
@BernieSanders
I’m on the same page with you. What I can’t stand is all the people who take out 100k loans, sign the paperwork, and then act like someone surprised them with payments.
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@Gregg_Goyo_Wh
@nbhydrocarbons
@FINRA
@SECGov
You should not be allowed to invest your own money. This is embarrassing and shameful. For humanity.
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@brofessorburke
@DougPolkVids
Regardless of your political leanings, this shows that you don’t understand what you’re talking about.
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@Keubiko
Ross is one of the great minds from a signal/noise ratio perspective. Whether your thoughts/ideas are perfectly correlated with reality or perfectly uncorrelated, they have equal value. I for one am glad to have him opine. It’s up to us to realize the value, George Costanza style
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@Keitek85
@PugilistFanatic
@024601
@DianaKalai
@BernieSanders
Would you be in favor of a policy that allowed student debt to be dischargable in bankruptcy? This way there are options for relief but they come with some consequences and the same ability to rebuild.
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@AlderLaneEggs
Yes but if I take a digital picture of the car wreck can I still get someone to pay me $1MM for it?
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@spanedda
@AndrewYang
Those who are unemployed should be taking advantage of existing benefits (made easier to access and larger in size than before). It’s amazing how quickly people are to jump on “this isn’t enough” rhetoric. Unemployment is now $700-900 a week for 3 months on top of your $1200.
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@DougPolkVids
Am I the only one that wishes, whether he lives or dies with zero or a billion, Perkins would just vanish.
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@montana_skeptic
@GerberKawasaki
@SECGov
He has to doctor the video because he did an interview where he explicitly stated (as his eyes darted up and left a crazy number of times) that there was no honking. And there is such a cult behind him it’s as good as truth in the echo chamber.
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Queue all of the people with zero economic knowledge making nonsensical arguments, ad hominem attacks, straw man fallacies, and generally Dunning-Kruger-ing their way into the comments.
Survey of leading economists:
"Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk."
0% disagree.
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@Definitely_Dave
@Keubiko
A black hole of the purest, most concentrated form of financial illiteracy and lunacy you’ll ever encounter. It makes $AMC “investors” look savvy by comparison.
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@MikeMcDonald89
You have come across the central friction of finance: how do you explain to the idiots their side of the trade in a way that they understand enough to take it but not so much as to realize you’re stealing.
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@DougPolkVids
@GmanPoker
Then maybe get Nick again. Then Perkins. Then Garrett. Then do a meta interview with Joey. Then try to get Berkey on. Maybe then Garrett and Perkins. Then Berkins with Perkey. Then Joey to break it down.
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@ICuRaRook
@VenetianPoker
@DougPolkPoker
@BlueSharkOptics
@PokerNews
@twoplustwoforum
@WynnPoker
@AriaLV
@BellagioPoker
@SavagePoker
@LIVEattheBike
Poker players are so short-sighted and only see EV maximization through a myopic lens, so even if you could rally the troops to try and keep this tournament under-attended, a bunch of people would hammer any overlay trying to scrape up a few bucks of short-term EV.
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@MikeMcDonald89
That’s what is so perversely beautiful about the crafters of public discourse. Everyone who traffics in the mainstream nonsense believes that the most innocuous thing is extreme. Sometimes you don’t even need to ask something specific, you just need to be willing to ask anything
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@CityzenFl
@GreekFire23
The point here isn’t saying Chevron is a great company or without faults. But it’s clear from her “discourse” that she doesn’t care about anything beyond the horribly written grandstanding speech. The whole thing is designed to get a sound bite, not actually getting accountabilty
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@concodanomics
Hard to find better assets to backstop than vacant strip malls in Tulsa, OK at 4% cap rates
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@QTRResearch
Imagine if $TSLA did a 1000:1 stock split. It would have a 5 trillion dollar market cap.
Mass idiocy abounds.
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I cannot get over how 95% of the crypto content in my timeline comes from people who are also into TSLA, intangible sports card investments (I enjoy collecting myself but actual cards), and any number of other nonsense bubbles.
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@benbbaldwin
The best part is running a screen designed to get less than the first done yardage and then punting. Honestly better off throwing a Hail Mary on third down there.
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@BillSimmons
Nothing says “listen to my gambling podcast” like a guy betting $50 a hand with $60 in front of him. Well done
@TheCousinSal
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@DougPolkVids
Are you sure it has nothing to do with the fact that people weren’t lining up in droves to hear your thoughts on when stimulus checks might arrive in the mail?
Sick insights though, to be fair.
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@benbbaldwin
If there’s anything unaccounted for systematically it may be the existence of a correlation between a coach who doesnt understand the arithmetic and one that is prone to making a terrible play call when they do try.
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@EpsilonTheory
P-hacking is all there is anymore and that’s what is expected when publication hinges on arbitrarily-drawn lines of 99%/95%
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I’ll say it again. We require at least a base level of demonstrated competency to drive. We should require it to invest.
$mmtlp - Updated Chart with fake NBH Cusip #'s.
BOOKMARK this post
New Video Rendering , which includes:
My breakdown of the Press Release; &
My Web Diagram illustrating my speculation of how naked NBH shares may trade to be closed.
New Cusips/Brokerages, leave in comment
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@KonyCapital
@Keubiko
In the new era of cult investing, once you’re down 50%+ the only people still listening are Kool-Aid drinking fanboys anyway so might as well target your base.
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Just joined
@EstablishTheRun
for the first time I’ve ever paid for any DFS content. I look forward to blaming
@adamlevitan
@evansilva
and others for my increase in laziness this season.
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@jehawks
@DeanBrowningPA
Old people going from not understanding the remote to not understanding IP addresses is beautiful.
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@ericwhiteback
@backyardbreaks_
@KingJames
@Topps
I just want to know what they had to do to get the rigged allocations.
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