Seth Walder
@SethWalder
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ESPN Sports Analytics Writer. DMs open.
Brooklyn
Joined October 2009
Minor update to my analytics staffer list. As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based on both what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
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Text from an NBA analytics staffer tonight: "Houston got more firsts for Robert Covington than it did for DeAndre Hopkins.".
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My wife, who had never heard of Saint Peter’s 10 days ago, just referred to Ndefo as “probably our best player.”.
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If I'm the Chiefs or Bills I'm calling the Jets about Davante Adams.
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ah yes, the key to josh allen's success: the 2.25 quarters he sat behind nathan peterman.
Starting Anthony Richardson game 1 is a mistake, let him learn from others errors first. The majority of great QB’s don’t start right away: . Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Rodgers, Jackson, etc. The exception is Burrow, who went 15-0 his senior year.
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Bengals finished with a 14% pass block win rate, the worst by any team in any game this season. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats).
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The Giants are mathematically alive for both the playoffs and the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
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Cooper Kupp's route chart (left) vs. Ja'Marr Chase's route chart (right). (NFL Next Gen Stats)
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In an incredible turnaround: Justin Fields now has the highest QBR this season among NFC North quarterbacks.
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Josh Allen's 13.6 MPH at the time of throw on the TD pass to Stefon Diggs is the fastest a QB has been running on a completion of at least 50 air yards in the Next Gen Stats era, since 2016.
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Patrick Mahomes ran a total of 497 yards before his passes/sacks tonight per @NextGenStats. That's the most pre-throw/pre-sack yards run by any quarterback in any game this season.
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Bills offensive EPA/P ranks. Weeks 1-10: 3rd.Weeks 11-18: 6th.
The Bills fired their OC ten weeks into the season, but from that point on, they played like a different team 📈
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I cannot stress enough how deeply irrational and embarrassing it would be for the Chargers and Raiders to not tie.
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Tight race for worst EPA day by a quarterback, per Next Gen Stats. Bryce Young -12.6.Daniel Jones -12.4.Joe Burrow -12.4.
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Josh Allen recorded a 98.5 Total QBR tonight. That's the best postseason QBR game in the metric's history (since 2006). Previous record was Tom Brady's 98.0 against the Jaguars in the 2007 divisional round.
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This is an NFL general manager demonstrating an extraordinary lack of understanding of basic football statistics.
Dave Gettleman: "People say it's a passing league, I get that. but the the top four teams were not in the playoffs, the top four rushing teams were in the playoffs"
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oh my god this is genius.
Thomas Downey HS with the fake punt of the year. I’ve watched this on repeat this morning
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Week 17 has produced both the highest QBR game (Lamar Jackson, 99.8) and lowest QBR game (Aaron Rodgers, 1.2) of the season.
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Film twitter: who *should* have gone with Kelce on this touchdown?
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The Rams have 79 passing yards. 78 of those have come on plays when Jamal Adams has been the nearest defender to the target, per @NextGenStats.
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Max speeds on the interception, per @NextGenStats:. Budda Baker 21.27 MPH.DK Metcalf 22.64 MPH.
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PJ Walker's touchdown pass to DJ Moore had an air distance of 67.6 yards -- the longest air distance completion in the Next Gen Stats era, since 2016.
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Two notable players with a 0% pass rush win rate this season:. Tyree Wilson.Khalil Mack.
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I cannot believe Justin Fields vs. QB at No. 1 is even a conversation. A fourth-year QB who has never finished higher than 15th in QBR or an elite QB prospect on a fresh deal?. It's not a hard call. It's barely a choice at all!.
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This is a brutal trade by the Broncos and a heist for the Seahawks. The difference between 83 and 108 is worth roughly a sixth-round pick. To get a future third is incredible for Seattle -- not just by our pick valuations but relative to other trades tonight.
The Seahawks moved back in a trade with the Broncos, giving up the 83rd pick in exchange for a fourth (No. 108) and a 2024 third-rounder.
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Sauce Gardner was not targeted a single time as the nearest defender today, per @NextGenStats.
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Dak Prescott is now the sole favorite to win MVP at ESPN BET. Prescott +175.Purdy +225.Hurts +650.Jackson +650.
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Tua Tagovailoa ranks 8th in QBR this season, despite the Dolphins ranking last in pass block win rate.
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When Jamal Adams has been the nearest defender to the targeted receiver, the Patriots are 6-6 for 157 yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
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Top Super Bowl pass rush win rates. Chris Jones 21%.George Karlaftis 17%.Chase Young 15%.Nick Bosa 15%.Michael Danna 11%. (Min. 10 plays with win or loss).
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Pass block win rate leaders for the season at tackle. Big names.
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Geno Smith is 10th in QBR this season. Russell Wilson is 21st.
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Top 10 players in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle in Week 1 thus far. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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I'm sure this will be devestating for Rams fans but the Bills finished the season as the No. 1 team in football, per FPI. Final ratings, here.
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The Bears posted an 88% pass block win rate today -- a very strong number. League average on team level was 60% last season.
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Creed Humphrey deserves OROY and I don't think it's even close.
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Highest QBR in Week 5 through Sunday:. Caleb Williams, 83.8.
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The entire reason the NFL doesn't schedule the times of the Week 18 games is to avoid the situation it just created by putting Lions/Packers on SNF.
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I think if the Eagles trade Carson Wentz they should be the ones sending picks.
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There's a new No. 1 in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle this season.
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Both things are true:. 1. Sam Darnold was in a horrendous situation with the Jets. 2. If he were actually good he would not have finished 33rd out of 33 in QBR last year.
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Updated chance to win the Super Bowl, per FPI:. Chiefs 38%.49ers 32%.Titans 15%.Packers 7%.Texans 4%.Seahawks 3%.
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Both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow have 9% sack rates, which is very bad. QBs play a large role in their sack rate. But there's also a pretty big difference here protection-wise: the Browns rank 4th in pass block win rate, and the Bengals rank 30th.
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Lamar Jackson has 3 of the top 5 QBR games in the history of the metric (since 2006).
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Giants' CB Adoree' Jackson as nearest defender today: 0 receptions allowed on 4 targets over 27 coverage snaps. (NFL Next Gen Stats).
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Highest pass rush win rates in the early window (regardless of alignment)
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Jaire Alexander played 31 coverage snaps and was the nearest defender on 3 targets per Next Gen Stats. The Rams had -3 yards on 1 reception when Alexander was nearest defender in the game. h/t @JMcTigue85.
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Micah Parsons has 12 pressures today, per @ESPNStatsInfo. That's the most by a player in a single game, as tracked by ESPN, since 2019 -- Nick Bosa and J.J. Watt each had a game with 12 that year.
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Hunter Renfrow safety dots! You can see here what they were talking about on the broadcast: Renfrow was suspicious before the snap and and that read let him make the play. (NFL Next Gen Stats)
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This play is insane. Patrick Mahomes is moving 5.3 MPH at the time of throw here, per @NextGenStats. Which wouldn't be that crazy if he weren't moving 5.3 MPH *to the left* as he threw to the *right*.
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From an NFL analytics staffer this morning on first vs. second possession in playoff OT:. "Anyone that is very confident there is a clear option is probably wrong.".
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49ers' CB Deommodore Lenoir as a nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats:. 55 coverage snaps, 4 targets, 1 reception, 3 yards allowed. Numbers-wise that's quite the debut for the 5th-round rookie.
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Puka Nacua should be the OROY, imo. I don't even really think it's close.
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The top 5 players in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle this season.
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"Sacks Created" is a stat where we credit the player who earned the first pass rush win on a sack play, rather than the player who finished the sack (it can be the same person). Here are the 2022 leaders.
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25% pass rush win rate for Kayvon Thibodeaux today. Nice number for him.
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by law everyone who was upset at Dan Campbell must now attack Kyle Shanahan for that 4th down decision.
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Chance to make the playoffs *with a win tonight*. Bengals: 3%.Cowboys: 2%.
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Top 10 pass rush win rate performances at Edge in Week 1 thus far. T.J. Watt was 11th at 24%. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Pass block win rates and ranks for the rookie tackles. Taliese Fuaga, 94% (15/60).Tyler Guyton, 84% (36/60).Joe Alt, 79% (48/60).Kingley Suamataia, 69% (57/60).J.C. Latham, 65% (59/60).
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Davis Mills recorded a Total QBR of 0.8 today. That's the worst QBR game of the last three seasons.
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Another: you think analytics staffers choose to work in the NFL because of the *pay*? . Everyone needs data scientists. Who do you think pays more: the Raiders or Amazon?
The NFC Championship turned when Lions coach Dan Campbell opted not to kick a field goal (and in turn to take a three-score lead) with seven minutes left in the third quarter. There are lessons to be learned from that decision.
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Daniel Jones recorded a QBR of 87.1 today. He now has the 6th-best QBR this season with a 62.6.
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this is a picture about a lack of public transportation infrastructure.
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Aaron Rodgers' 1.2 QBR today is the lowest QBR game since Davis Mills' 0.8 in Week 4 of 2021.
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Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 12. If this holds it would be the second consecutive week that Chop Robinson is No. 1 on this list.
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Surprise losses by Duke and Kansas yesterday opened up the race for the fourth No. 1 seed (with Villanova, Virginia and Purdue near-locks). Behind them, chance to earn a No. 1 seed, per BPI: . Tennessee: 24%.Duke: 22%.Auburn: 13%.Xavier: 13%.Michigan State: 11%.Kansas: 10%.
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This makes the deal substantially worse for Houston.
Added incentive for Stefon Diggs: As part of the Buffalo-Houston trade, the Texans wiped out the final three years on Diggs’ contract, giving him the ability to become a free agent after this season, league sources tell ESPN. The Texans also took the $3.5 million guaranteed to
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Sauce Gardner: 0 receptions allowed on 2 targets as the nearest defender over 25 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Plus a sack.
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Top 10 players in pass rush win rate at edge in Week 1 thus far. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
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Sacks Created -- where we credit the person who first beat their blocker, as opposed to the person who finished the sack. 2020 Leaders:. Aaron Donald 19.Myles Garrett 16.5.T.J. Watt 14.5.Khalil Mack 13.Justin Houston 12.Emmanuel Ogbah 11.Carl Lawson 10.5. (ESPN/NGS).
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Aaron Donald is on his own planet. Double team rate as a defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle (y), 2020 regular season. (Y axis is overall PRWR, not just vs. double teams).
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Lamar Jackson recorded a 99.5 QBR last night, the highest QBR game of any QB this season. Most career 99 or higher QBR games, last 15 seasons:. Lamar Jackson 4.Ryan Fitzpatrick 3.Six players tied at 2. h/t @bbisinthehouse.
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Offensive EPA/P leaders. 1. Dolphins w/ Tua on field, 0.18.2. Chiefs, 0.17.3. Eagles, 0.15.4. Bills, 0.12.5. Bengals, 0.09. 33. Dolphins w/out Tua on field, -0.11.
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On plays with 0 pass rush wins -- meaning no defender beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds of the snap -- Carson Wentz has a QBR of 44. Dead last.
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absolutely here for punters posting EPA screenshots.
I’m out! .Y’all keep me posted if a team claims me. The internet finds these things out before we do. 🙏.#AllGasNoBrakes
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Happy football. Super Bowl prediction: Dolphins over Eagles.
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Highest pass rush win rates at defensive tackle in Week 4 thus far. (ESPN / Next Gen Stats)
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Highest pass rush win rates at Edge in Week 7, through the late afternoon window. Best PRWR games from Ebiketie, Thibodeaux and Hutchinson so far. (ESPN Analytics / NGS)
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Sauce Gardner as the nearest defender today, per @NextGenStats:. 3 receptions allowed for 8 yards on 9 targets over 47 coverage snaps.
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Justin Fields' 95.3 QBR was the second-highest QBR game recorded this season. It's the only one of the top 17 QBR games this year to have resulted in a loss.
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Interior of Chiefs offensive line 👀👀. Joe Thuney and Trey Smith rank 4th and 8th in PBWR at guard, respectively. Creed Humphrey ranks 3rd at C. (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats).
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Often we say coaches are aggressive when they are just being optimal. But this one?! This one was *actually* aggressive.
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Justin Fields' high sack rate is mostly on him, not the Bears' offensive line. Left: Fields' astronomical sack rate comes despite a strong Bears pass block win rate. Right: Fields takes sacks late. He has only taken 5 sacks this year under the median sack time (4.29s).
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3 seconds into running a route, who is on average the farthest downfield? Alec Pierce by a lot.
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Ravens EPA allowed per dropback rank. Weeks 1-9: 28th.Weeks 10-16: 1st.
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First win rate chart of the season!. Double team rate at edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y). Traffic jam at the bottom courtesy of Micah Parsons at the top!
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Seahawks should have a rightful gripe about the Week 18 scheduling order. Not cool that NFL is messing with final week incentives.
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2021 Pass Rush Win Rate leaders. At edge: Myles Garrett. At defensive tackle: Aaron Donald. Overall, regardless of where lined up: Micah Parsons.
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