MA1984
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@ArmchairW
This is my view as well. Too many still think this war is about territory for Russia. Russia doesn't need more territory, but it can't have a hostile Ukraine in any form on its borders.
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@spencertbarber
What you are describing is the class structure of a 3rd world country. US is converging with countries like Brazil.
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@Carnage4Life
It's always a bad sign when you have to hype unreleased products like this. Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone as an One More Thing. ChatGPT is following the path of Windows Vista.
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@RnaudBertrand
I wouldn't say Qing was complacent, Qing purposefully chose to not industrialize. Industrialization would have led to urbanization, which would disrupt the social order. Qing wanted to maintain an agrarian society because urbanized society would threaten Manchu rule.
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@smx_pd
@thinking_panda
Fuzhou has 4.5M people. Assuming 50% are female, that's 2.25M female. This includes children and old people.
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@smx_pd
@thinking_panda
So how many migrant workers are in Fuzhou? You are clearly making up numbers here.
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@zhao_dashuai
Why Alaska? Invading North America through Alaska is the hardest way. Have you seen the terrain in Alaska and Yukon?
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@aWorldChanging
It's not just factories either. With 5G wireless, even mining, construction, restaurants, logistics are getting automated.
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@JoshEakle
Just to give you an idea of how fantastical your idea is, the Ukrainians still have not managed to destroy the Kerch bridge with any missiles. The Kerch bridge is a lot closer to Ukrainian lines than Yichang is to TW, and the Ukrainians have much better long range weapons.
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@nikstankovic_
@Molson_Hart
Poverty force people to adopt survival values, which come off as uncivilized. I think to a large extent, what we consider to be civilization, is really just everything that is built on top of material surplus beyond what is necessary for basic survival.
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@mike4evolution
Nothing wrong with India buying oil from the US. US oil is not only more expensive than Russian oil, cost of USD financing is also more expensive than CNY financing. Good luck competing with China in industrial cost structure.
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@BeijingDai
The primary export of the US is the USD, dedollarization is the proper response to US decoupling.
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@JoshEakle
Maybe you should study the history of dam busting raids. Gravity dams are some of the hardest targets to destroy. The British used 9000 lb bombs precisely fused to detonate 30m below the waterline to damage a dam that the Germans repaired in 4 months.
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@nxt888
It is often said that Russians play chess while Americans play checkers. But even in checkers you have to think ahead. In reality, Americans only know how to play beer-pong.
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@JoshEakle
A PLA decapitation strike team would only have to fly 200 km over the sea to Taipei to take out a few soft targets. A Taiwanese missile would have to cross 1200 km of mainland territory to hit a hardened gravity dam.
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@RnaudBertrand
I think the reality is a bit more nuanced. China pays high end talent really well. When you combine that with the low cost of living in China, quality of life is much higher for these people in China than in the US.
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@BeijingDai
There is a better one about Xiaomi's AI. A guy is caught speeding in a SU7. The policeman walks up and ask the driver how fast he was driving, he says he doesn't remember. The policeman ask Xiaoai how fast the car was going. The AI replies it was 160.
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@RnaudBertrand
I don't think you should attribute the situation of Europe to complacency. There are real anti-democratic forces at work in Europe to maintain the status quo.
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If an Israel-Iran war breaks out Russia and China will be major winners. Oil goes to $150-200/barrel, Russia is the biggest oil exporter outside of the Persian Gulf. China is the biggest exporter of EVs in the world.
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@BeijingDai
Why does China have to respond? It really doesn't have to do anything. TW is basically finished. They are a single industry island that's going to face a ton of global competition in semiconductors because everyone has declared this to be a strategic industry.
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@RnaudBertrand
@tumacius
Meritocratic bureaucracy is one of China's greatest inventions. This is on par with the invention of the Scientific Method by the West.
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I have been thinking about renewable energy and how the US lost its lead. My view is that China has an ideological advantage over the United States because Marxism sees the fall in the rate of profit as a natural evolution of capitalism and not something to fight against.
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@RnaudBertrand
None of this is controversial. Mao pretty much said the same thing. I think most political leaders of that generation knew this.
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@GovApprvedPedos
@thinking_panda
But the data says otherwise. Chinese athletes have the lowest doping rates in this Olympics despite the highest testing rates.
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@tshugart3
lol, now how about giving back all that land to the natives and offering real compensation instead of empty words?
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@thinking_panda
This is just shows how overpriced Chinese housing is. You can buy 6 of these drones for the price of a 3 bedroom apartment in Beijing.
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@BeijingDai
I think the future of the US is to become like Brazil. An overpopulated resource exporter with extreme wealth inequality.
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@StarboySAR
Cotton is a strategic commodity because it is used to make nitrocellulose, which is used as propellant in ammunition.
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@davidpgoldman
The fact that India is not competitive even in textiles, which is the classic 1st rung on the industrialization ladder, is a major problem. China exports 7x as much textiles as India, despite wages that are 4x higher.
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@BeijingDai
Buying US weapons is like paying for your own enslavement. This is like the maker of your car dictating what cell service provider you can use.
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@przidnt1
Can't generalize completely, but for many it is true. Many people in the top 1% in their peer group in China thought they were winners for moving abroad only to end up middle class in their new homes while their peers back in China are still in the top 1%.
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@BeijingDai
It's a bit more complicated than that. The US cannot possibly back the Philippines if it can be proven that they fired first. The US has issued so many security guarantees around the world that the example of the US backing an ally that shot first would be disastrous for the US.
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@thinking_panda
lol, it's crazy to read about these athletes with a long list of medical conditions.
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@JoshEakle
Taiwanese cruise missiles carry at most 1000 lb warheads. They won't even scratch the 3 gorges dam. They also can't be fused to enter the water first and detonate below the water line like a dam buster would require.
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@zhao_dashuai
The problem is the Chinese cultural trait of not talking in absolutes. Chinese culture likes to promote dialog in a way as to leave a way for the other side to back down without losing face. This clearly doesn't work when you are dealing with a guy like Hasan.
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@orientalismus
Another factor is that countries that run persistent trade deficits will look better in PPP GDP/capita. Borrow $1, buy $1 worth of imports, sell domestically for $3 creates lots of PPP GDP/capita in the short run with no real input.
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@ryanl_hass
@niubi
Has the US ever lived up to its ideals? The double talk started with the Constitution by proclaiming that all men are created equal and simultaneously instituting slavery of Africans.
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@thinking_panda
The version of the US that Chinese people like doesn't actually exist. Chinese people really want a socialist countries where the government pays for everything.
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3 American tech giants have market cap greater than the entire Chinese stock market. China builds more solar power capacity in a single year than the US built in its entire history. These 2 facts capture the ideological gap between China and the US.
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@RudyDrischel
@isaacstonefish
The fact that you have to go back to 1900 is already saying something.
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@homeservguy
This story is a microcosm why the US economy is broken. More than 80% of Americans would come out ahead learning to fix their car themselves instead of delegating to a professional. Services are simply way too expensive for average Americans to afford.
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@ryanl_hass
@niubi
People don't move to the US for its ideals, they move to the US for its relatively high standard of living.
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@TimDunkman
The rules of break dancing is definitely more fascinating than gymnastics. The fact that you can just copy a move in the middle of the other guy's performance injects quite a bit more drama into the performance.
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@JoshEakle
In general bridges are much easier to destroy than dams, and Storm Shadows are better than anything that TW has. It is literally easier for the PLA to fly into Taipei in an autogyro and decapitate the TW leadership than for Taiwan to even hit the 3G dam, much less damage it.
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@nikstankovic_
@Molson_Hart
The ancient civilizations were built on top of the material surpluses enabled by the agricultural revolution. Modern civilization is built on top of the material surpluses enabled by the industrial revolution.
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@SwordMercury
This is very very scary. Much scarier than a hunger strike.
The message is this: I'm not happy, and I'm not afraid to die.
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@tshugart3
Black History Month, Native American Heritage Month, when are you going to get to Iraqi Experience Month? Will there be enough months in the year?
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@profplum99
Why would maintenance costs be insane? Construction is becoming more automated over time. A lot of the new infrastructure in China have embedded sensors that can aid in maintenance resource allocation.
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Chinese car prices are pretty insane. A new 2024 Honda Odyssey is 150k CNY = $20k, vs $42k in US. This is a pure gas car, so no battery cost advantage involved. Same make, same model, just a much more competitive market.
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@Kdenkss
US doesn't have allies, it has vassals. If the US were capable of treating other great powers as equals, it wouldn't need to contain China or Russia in the first place.
QUAD was doomed from the start because India will never tolerate being a junior partner.
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@optionvalue
@cartographer_s
The British Empire was the main peer competitor of the US. The only way the US can dominate the post-war world the way it did was to dismantle the British Empire.
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@ENPancotti
Starvation wages? What year are you living in? China's car sales/capita is 1/2 of the US and close to that of France, and that is with license plate restrictions in many Chinese cities due to lack of road space.
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@PAstynome
US trade wars have decisively shifted the discussion inside of China in favor of total industrial dominance. Previously there were many proponents of global division of labor where China should aim to integrate into rather than dominate global value chains.
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One of the most distinguishing aspects of US policy post-Reagan is the focus on preserving corporate profitability. There is an ideological focus on preserving the rate of profit in the US, and this is necessarily in conflict with the fall in rate of profit as predicted by Marx.
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@ElbridgeColby
Somehow China's economic growth isn't real, but the military build up is real. How does someone like this hold any position of responsibility?
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@RotsasCY
@philippilk
Same logic as mask production. In theory they can do them, but how long would it take to scale production?
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@SMB_Attorney
Remote Work. We are in the early innings of remote work. Many people have had a taste, and they want more. Remote work is a massive business opportunity because it is destroying commercial real estate values. That spending power doesn't go away, it will go somewhere else.
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Russia, the West, and India are all preoccupied with geopolitics. China is different. China has determined that the future lies in technology and not geopolitics. Regime change, foreign bases, and gunboat diplomacy are distractions that give illusions of power.
Not only is this a pipe dream, it's a self-destructive one. Do you really want a PRC with a Yuan Dynasty mindset?
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@RnaudBertrand
Fresh graduate AI PhDs are getting 2M CNY/year offers. The purchasing power exchange rate of USD/CNY is around 2.5 based on prevailing prices in both countries. This is basically equivalent to a $800k/year salary in the US.
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@przidnt1
Another factor is that many people who emigrated in the 80s/90s suffered through the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s, but didn't enjoy the fruits of the economic boom of the post-2000 era. So for them, China is just memory of suffering.
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@BeijingDai
Japan's problem was that lots of Japanese industrial firms wanted to become Evergrande rather than Huawei because making money in finance/real estate is much easier than making money in tech/manufacturing.
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@Chen_YenHan
She is only allowed this public display because Chinese society and government doesn't terrorize people who do this. You would see a lot more open support for Chinese style communism in US/UK/Canada if they didn't terrorize people for supporting communism.
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@sinowarrior01
@thinking_panda
You are underestimating the standard of living in mainland China relative to JP/SK/TW/HK. This is 2024, update.
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I'm going to make a bold prediction: real standard of living as measured by per capita energy consumption will be higher in China than the US within 15 years.
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@powerfultakes
Eastern European countries have inflated GDP/capita. Poland's car sales/capita is 1/2 that of South Korea. Their standard of living is much lower than their GDP/capita would suggest.
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@BeijingDai
Ren Zhengfei famously refused to go into real estate development. He said that making money in real estate is too easy. If Huawei got used to making easy money, it would destroy the company.
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@thinking_panda
Korean universities would rank high globally for weight loss. People who are overfed in China should seriously consider studying in Korea for a semester or two.
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@Kanthan2030
31 MQ-9 for $4B, $129M/drone, those are some serious kickbacks. US only pays $30M for MQ-9, and China's CH-5 cost $8M.
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@hollowearthterf
@bronzebini
Why would any man want to hold down a job if the room and board is free? Once you have shelter/food/entertainment provided, what would incentivize a man to get up and go to work?
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@MissQuanyi18
So unambitious. Just pass a bill that says China doesn't belong to Chinese people already.
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@jeanmackenzie
Girls are taught that men and women are equal, but in reality this is not the case in a frontline state like South Korea. The country is still technically at war with North Korea, men disproportionally bear the cost of national defense.
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@Schuldensuehner
Despite a 50% increase in population and 11x increase in GDP since 1978, the US sold as many cars in 2023 as it did back in 1978. The US has an extremely financialized economy that is reflected in its stock market performance, but not reflected in the physical economy.
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@LukeGromen
If you look at Russia in 1997-1998, it took only about a year to go from low double digit to 150% interest rates once you go down this path.
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I think there is a good explanation for this. Rise of China makes rich countries poorer and poor countries richer.
The richer the country, the more people have a negative view of China.
I quickly threw this together using the latest Pew Global Attitudes Survey. Rich countries have grown more negative towards China over time while middle income countries tend to be more positive.
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@The_Blck_Swan
@zhao_dashuai
Subs would be incredibly inefficient for supply. Their internal volume is tiny. I think you should crunch some numbers.
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@Mayhem4Markets
@theMacroVisors
That is not the correct interpretation. Falling interest rates doesn't mean the economy is good or bad by itself.
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@BeijingDai
Issue isn't specific to India, but the labor intensive manufacturing path to development seems to be closed. The profitability of cheap labor is not what it once was because automation is now much cheaper and more widely applicable than 40 years ago.
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@ShazCoder
To be fair, what actually happened does sound pretty outrageously full of hopium back in 1979.
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@Bevin83994661
The issue with shallow racists like Carlson is that he thinks that he has something in common with Putin because they are both white, in reality Putin gets along far better with Xi because both come from ancient cultures and can appreciate the history of the other.
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@thinking_panda
Your upper middle class Beijing family can afford to build their own air force.
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The foundation of the US pivot to Asia is the idea that Asia, specifically EA/SEA will be the global center of economic growth over the next generation. The question is, why is EA/SEA doing so well compared to the rest of the world?
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China's real advantage isn't the automation, it's the supply chain completeness. Anyone can learn how to build automated factories.
As Alex notes certain aspects of these advantages are not unique to China — they are skills and know-how that can be learned and absorbed.
So the key question for other countries is zero’ing in on the notion of building human capital in this area.
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@nikstankovic_
Iran charged Russia around $200k each for Shahed-136. They never revealed the production cost. The $20k figure is a Western estimate. Chinese equivalent CH-806 only cost 30k CNY, which is roughly $2800.
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@RnaudBertrand
China follows Mao's approach to conflict. You fight your way, I fight my way. It doesn't do reciprocal retaliation, which is probably what the US is expecting.
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@_manishkapoor
@thinking_panda
Bankrupting the real estate industry is necessary in China. This is how restructuring works in real life.
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@MikaelValterss1
In practice Russia doesn't need to actually win back Kursk in the short term. If they can simply pin down the attackers with a smaller force and focus on advancing elsewhere that could be more advantageous.
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@duckbilledtweet
@OrlovProvince
@_JakubJanda
The only way you can consider the industrialization process of UK and US to be more humane than that of China and Russia is if you do not consider the Africans, the Native Americans, and the Indians to be human.
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A major potential black swan in the semiconductor industry is what if the future of the industry is vertical integration like BYD rather than the current fabless + TSMC + ASML split.
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@pplsartofwar
There is currently not even a near peer to China in terms of ability to scale and adopt new technology. The gap between China and ROW is just getting bigger every year.
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@Mayhem4Markets
@theMacroVisors
This is US interest rates since 1970. If falling interest rates reflected lack of confidence, the entire period from 1980-2022 would be a 40 year depression in the US.
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