International Relations scholar. Lecturer & Research Associate
@TUDresden_DE
. Working on IR theory, conflict, political geography, Latin America. Views my own.
The panel on Weimar Triangle and European security that I had the honor to be part of at
#ysc2024
is now online. Here's a rant on German defense policy in relation to NATO's Eastern flank which I think was both necessary and well received:
Major political scandal brewing in Germany: investigative journalists have found documents apparently showing the complicity of senior politicians in Russian strategic energy schemes, knowingly acting to the detriment of Ukraine, during the Merkel administration.
Große Koalitionen, Wirtschaftsminister aus
@cducsubt
und
@spdde
, haben sehr viel dafür getan, unsere energiepolitische Abhängigkeit von Russland zu zementieren. Die Interessen der Ukraine waren dabei völlig nebensächlich. Da gibt‘s noch viel aufzuarbeiten.
If the Baltic Jammer in Kaliningrad prevents transportation from and to European destinations, it is time for European countries to block transportation from and to Kaliningrad.
Not reacting forcefully here will just lead to more provocations elsewhere.
The jammer famously affecting planes in Estonia is not the one dubbed Baltic Jammer, but a separate one.
It is almost always on and I am in the process of characterizing it. I will soon have enough data to localize also this one.
gpsjam illustrative for the spatial difference.
Europeans need to get ready to defend themselves and to supply the defense of Ukraine by themselves. They need to do so NOW. It's time to shed the managerial rhetoric designed to keep the population comfortable.
We're not going to be comfortable.
NEW: Donald Trump names Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice Presidential pick.
Before politics Vance was best known as the author of the best selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy.
The pathological focus on Russia and Navalny has to end. His movement has no influence, and if it ever does, god help us.
The U.S. are rapidly destroying the trust and good will they have built over 30 years in Central and Eastern Europe, and it's not just Republicans.
“Most of all, I want the Kremlin and its officials to understand: if they killed Alexei, then I will step up. If they do something to me, another person will come."
Yulia Navalnaya—the widow of Alexei Navalny—speaks to
@shustry
As the war in Ukraine drags on, a prevailing mood of weariness has settled in.
@mashagessen
reports on the political, social, and economic repercussions of the country’s prolonged fight for survival.
Egal, was der Plan hinter der Charkiw-Offensive ist: Unser idiotisches Verbot, mit westlichen Waffen auf Ziele in Russland zu feuern, schützt feindliche Einheiten, die in Reichweite sind.
Wir gewähren unserem erklärten Feind Schutz.
Ich habe keine Worte.
Excellent: "Our analysis suggests that Russia’s aggressive rhetoric about nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine has thus far been primarily intended to shape Western decision-making, rather than a genuine expression of intent to use such weapons."
This is an idiotic statement. Putin owns Russia - there is nothing in the country that he doesn't control. Any sanctions against him must be sanctions against Russia itself. This just confirms that engagement with Russian dissidents is wasted time.
Send more ammo to Ukraine!!
❗️Vladimir Kara-Murza emphasized that Western sanctions should be targeted at
#Putin
, not at Russian citizens and the entire country.
"This is extremely unfair and counterproductive because it gives Putin's propaganda material that 'we are in the ring of enemies, in a besieged
There is much discussion of Kara-Murza's recent video. Whatever his opinion is regarding Russia's future, he and other Russian liberals are unlikely to have a say in it.
That's because there are no institutions through which they could take power in case of Putin's fall. 1/7
Ich verstehe diese Tweets nicht.
Ich bin zwar Politikwissenschaftler und beschäftige mich in meiner Forschung viel mit bewaffneten Konflikten, aber Herr Stegner ist irgendwie wohl zu hoch für mich.
Erklärt mir das bitte jemand?
70 Sekunden darüber, wie eine Demokratie einer kriegerischen Diktatur begegnen sollte.
Ralf Stegner argumentativ komplett zerlegt. Und was wir von Scholz zu erwarten haben. Immer nur Otto Wels reicht halt nicht, SPD!
Chapeau, Marcus Bensmann!
#Lanz
Das Gerhard Mangott da fassungslos ist, glaube ich gerne. Andere Experten dürften eher weniger überrascht sein - zum Beispiel solche, die mal ins
@IPGJournal
schauen, die außenpolitische Hauspostille der SPD...
Jörg Nürnberger
@joergnurnberger
from
#SPD
compares the demand for Taurus with the complaints of a child which is never content with the toys it has. This was an odious, characterless statement from the representative of a party long known for its collusion with Moscow.
Whatever the motivation behind the Kharkiv offensive may be: Our IDIOTIC ban on firing Western weapons at targets in Russia is protecting enemy formations which would be within range.
We are giving shelter to our declared enemy.
I have no words.
Neben der strategischen Blindheit verstört auch das völlig schamlose Lügen.
Aber vielleicht merkt die SPD ja bald, dass sie mit diesem Herrn als Kandidaten sehr lange nicht mehr den Bundeskanzler stellen wird.
Beim kräftigen Nachziehen roter Linien für sich selbst wacht der Kanzler aus seiner üblichen Lethargie auf.
Woher kommt eigentlich dieser Jähzorn? Weil die Kritik an seiner verfehlten Ukraine-Politik partout nicht verstummen will?
Wer es immer noch nicht glauben mag: Die Befürworter von
#TaurusForUkraine
haben laut dem Chef von Airbus Defence in jedem Punkt Recht, Scholz und die Radio Moskau-Fraktion der SPD haben demzufolge wissentlich gelogen.
"Außerdem wirft Mützenich den Befürwortern von Taurus-Lieferungen pekuniäre Interessen und innenpolitische und damit unlautere Motive vor. Erstaunlich für einen Vertreter der SPD, deren Altkanzler sich von Moskau hat schmieren lassen."
I decided to check out
#Mearsheimer
's and Rosato's new book, "How States Think".
I stopped when I read this.
Honestly, what's next?
Does this mean I could get a grant from Kim Jong-Un and brag about it in the foreword?
German parliament
@Bundestag
is currently debating the supply of
#Taurus
cruise missiles to
#Ukraine
. This is a crucial event in determining the degree and character of German support. You can watch the debate here:
Whether states like France or Germany want to be Russia’s enemy is irrelevant. As long as the Russian govt has existential reasons to frame the West as the enemy, there’s nothing the West can do about it except decide whether to resist or capitulate to Russian aggression.
Haushaltssperre für neue Ukraine-Hilfen. Schon jetzt konnte ein IRIS-T Flugabwehr-System offenbar nicht geliefert werden. Gilt denn der Kanzler-Satz „So lange wie nötig“ nicht mehr?
#Ukraine
German investigative journalists have unearthed previously unknown and important commercial links between the entourage of Vladimir Putin and a close associate of German president F.-W. Steinmeier.
This is a swamp that we must drain.
Der Vertrauensverlust ist schon absehbar.
Wenn dieser schwachsinnige Plan umgesetzt wird und Russland sich deswegen durchsetzt, wird Deutschland ein weiteres Mal für das Ende der europäischen Friedensordnung verantwortlich sein.
Wer das unterstützt, verdient keine Unterstützung.
Nach der aktuellen Haushaltsplanung der
#Ampel
-Koalition steht kein neues Geld mehr für die Militärhilfe für
#Kiew
bereit. Das hat Finanzminister
#Lindner
nach F.A.S.-Informationen dem Verteidigungsministerium mitgeteilt.
Putin now kicks his looting into high gear, seizing cash and assets wherever he can find them.
Yesterday, the Russian government demanded IKEA pay $140,000,000 for some fabricated tax penalty and today they seize €463,000,000 from Unicredit.
It's all getting started.
"Der
#Taurus
ist durch einen Kanzler, der die Dringlichkeit der Situation nicht zu erkennen scheint, zum Symbol deutscher Feigheit und Erpressbarkeit gegenüber
#Russland
geworden."
Yesterday, I debunked a major German weekly's misinformed article on the effects of
#clustermunitions
. I absolutely did not expect that today, I would have to do the same for an article from... 1/x
Das "Einfrieren" des Krieges in der Ukraine bedeutet die Ermöglichung eines Völkermords in den besetzten Gebieten. Wer da noch Höflichkeitsdefizite bemängelt, hat ein schweres Problem mit politischem Anstand.
Die Verrohung der Sprache, die Diffamierung eines Menschen - und sei es der Vorsitzende der größten Fraktion im deutschen Bundestag
@spdbt
ist inakzeptabel. Die Zersetzung jedes Diskurses über die Sprache und den persönlichen Angriffs sind das Ende des demokratischen Diskurses.
Update on the murder of two Ukrainian soldiers in Murnau, Germany: It appears the state government of Bavaria is now trying to portray the attack as a crime between drunk people without any political aspects. 1/3
Es wird sehr deutlich, dass die Zarenknechte keine andere Funktion haben als die Unterstützung des russischen Angriffskriegs als fünfte Kolonne.
Warum duldet Deutschland so etwas?
Das Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht kann auf viele Stimmen im Osten hoffen, will mögliche Regierungsgespräche aber an die Friedensfrage in der Ukraine knüpfen. Deren Präsident Selenskyj glaubt nicht an ein rasches Kriegsende.
And
@ForeignPolicy
's nonsense article by a Russian propagandist got a reader's note slapped onto it! Now, what does this tell us about the quality of editorial process at FP?
Ein Querdenker hat den von mir (und von allen mit der Materie ernsthaft befassten) hochgeschätzten Verteidigungspolitiker Roderich Kiesewetter brutal angegriffen.
@RKiesewetter
wünsche ich eine schnelle Genesung, dem Täter die volle Härte des Rechtsstaats.
Wagenknechts rotlackierte Russlandfaschos werden jetzt zu "Sozialkonservativen" hochgejazzt, damit Merz und Söder nicht mit den Grünen koalieren müssen. Demokratie kann sich auch selbst abschaffen.
Russians are opening another front, and are now governed by a cabinet with a fully militarized economy as its goal.
If Europeans don't make rearmament their absolute priority, including an end to senseless prohibitions like the cluster munitions ban, we are looking at disaster.
The General Staff of Ukraine Armed Forces admits that Russia has now deployed substantive resources - up to 5 battalions - to the attack in Kharkiv and has achieved tactical success
1/
So, time to write my own thread on the case of Viacheslav
#Morozov
. Though I can't add much to the things already said by colleagues who knew him better, IR scholars might use this case to reflect on some important issues. 1/
Adjusting back to Germany after a truly transformative one-week trip to Kyiv.
I am thankful for the opportunity to have had conversations with some of the best foreign policy and defense thinkers of Ukraine.
Once I've processed this experience, I will write in more detail. 1/5
Retired
#Bundeswehr
colonel Roderich Kiesewetter
@RKiesewetter
from opposition
#CDU
has been a strong voice for Ukraine, and is one of the few intellectual leaders on defense issues in the Bundestag. He notes the lack of decency in Nürnberger's speech, and...
Ja, "Verärgerung" trifft es ganz gut.
Es sind schon Bundespräsidenten aus wesentlich geringfügigeren Anlässen zurückgetreten.
Daran könnte man doch anknüpfen!
Vladimir Kara-Murza
@vkaramurza
: a peaceful Europe is only possible if post-Putin Russia is integrated into the EU
But I don’t think the EU has any appetite for it. Russian culture, as the war has shown, is very distinct from that of Europe 1/
@joergnurnberger
Or, as a famous British politician would have said, facing a choice between war and dishonor, he chose dishonor, and he will have war. He also repeats the "Wunderwaffen" polemic, which has no basis in the actual motion discussed, or anything said by its proponents. Yuck.
Vor 10 Jahren wurde der Maidan ein Symbol für Freiheit, Demokratie und Souveränität. Der Mut der Ukrainerinnen und Ukrainer ist unvergessen.
Die Ukraine gehört zu Europa – und wir stehen an ihrer Seite.
Therefore, I don't really pay attention to the opinions of Russian dissidents, and to those in the West who believe them to be important.
I can say with confidence that no expert in Ukraine has any faith in them or their ideas either. 4/7
Any time or effort spent on Russian dissidents is therefore time or effort lost for the discussion of actually effective measures, which lie in arming Ukraine, confiscating Russian assets to do so, and tightening economic sanctions on Russia. 5/7
Ja, was machen wir da wohl?
Nichts.
Ich und zahlreiche andere reden uns hier seit Monaten den Mund fusslig, dass diese russische gray zone-Kampagne weiter eskaliert wird, wenn wir nicht im Gegenzug klar erkennbare Kosten verursachen.
Hilft nix. Scholz & Co wollen nicht lernen.
🚨Mutmasslich russiche Drohnen vom Typ Orlan-10 gestartet von zivilen Schiffen in der Nordsee spionieren seit dem 8. August u.a. das AKW Brunsbüttel, LNG-Terminals aus.
They are dissidents rather than an opposition - they publicly disagree with their country's government, but do not have a chance of taking power.
Instead, they count on their links to sympathetic Westerners to provide them with clout, peddling a vision of change in Russia. 2/7
Extremely worrying: Europe is not keeping up with its promises for artillery munition production.
At the same time, KNDS France, that country's largest producer, is still using considerable parts of its capacity for commercial export.
Inexcusable.
Exactly. Anybody who believes that striking strategic targets won't influence the operational and tactical levels of war should stay away from decision-making on strategy, operations, and tactics (and on everything else as well, perhaps).
‘Ukraine is better served going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight’
How can 🇺🇦 do that while the administration and Congress dither and delay?
And strategic targets have operational and tactical impact 🤦♂️
Russian FPV drones using fibre-optic cables instead of radio connection in the
#Kursk
area.
This makes electronic countermeasures ineffective (which is why the videos are so clear).
Ukrainian Drone Army units are prototyping similar drones:
On Wednesday, the
#German
@Bundestag
will vote on the provision of
#Taurus
cruise
#missiles
to
#Ukraine
.
Especially relevant are members from the liberal and green parties, who will have to decide between their support for Ukraine and their allegiance to the governing coalition.
++Exklusiv++
@cducsubt
fordert in Entschließungsantrag, "endlich und unverzüglich der Ukraine einsatzbereite
#Taurus
-Marschflugkörper der Bundeswehr in größtmöglichem Umfang bereitzustellen und unmittelbar nachzubeschaffen". Text von
@sara__si
But within Russia, they have an insignificant and, importantly, unarmed audience.
The best they can realistically hope for is to become the friendly face of the old regime in case of an armistice in Ukraine - likely with the aim of enticing Westerners to restart trade. 3/7
The media presence of Russian dissidents at best provides a comfortable illusion of future peaceful change, and at worst represents an information warfare strategy to bring the West back to trade with Russia (and would, in that case, be dangerous). 6/7
Wenn die SPD wirklich ihren Ruf als Gazprom-Partei loswerden möchte, sollte sie mal darüber nachdenken, warum die außenpolitische Hauspostille der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung immer noch Artikel bringt, die man vielleicht von Ken Jebsen erwarten würde.
I have the impression, confirmed in private conversations with experts, that the plan of the Navalny movement is not to replace the Russian regime with something completely different, but rather to serve as a friendly face of the current one once the war has ended.
.
@yulia_navalnaya
just called for people in Russia to go and vote "for anyone besides Putin". This doesn't make any sense - why would she legimitize Putin's sham elections?
The election result will be made up by the Kremlin anyway, so voting will have 0 effect.
"What was once unnecessarily controversial is now clear: arming Ukraine carries little risk of war with Russia."
Indeed. Should have been clear long ago, and certain leaders are still talking about escalation management.
In any case, the Bavarian state government has a history of misrepresenting the character of terrorist acts in order to bolster their reputation in terms of public security. Be VERY suspicious. 3/3
...notes, optimistically, that none of the speakers from democratic parties excluded
#Taurus
. He gives a clear justification for the military necessity, specifically regarding
#Crimea
, and pleads for moving towards practical steps in the committees. A strong call for...
Update: The Public Prosecutor's Office of Munich's Center for Counterterrorism and Counterextremism will not exclude a political aspect, and has taken over investigations.
Marcus Faber
@MarcusFaber
from liberal government partner
#FDP
has long been one of the most outspoken supporters of Ukraine. A clear call for delivering Taurus and a spirited justification of support for Ukraine in general.
FDP deputy and
#Bundeswehr
reservist Alexander Müller
@alexmuellerfdp
with a strong indictment of German and Western hesitancy. He endorses the call to send
#Taurus
and hopes to resolve any "last doubts" in the committees! This was a welcome demonstration of integrity!!
Because there was no response to them blocking GPS signals in the Baltic Sea they're now doing it in the Black Sea too, endangering civilian air traffic.
Der 2. Juni ist ein besonderer Tag in der Geschichte Italiens. Am 2. Juni 1946 wurde die italienische Republik nach dem Sieg über Mussolini aus der Taufe gehoben. Mein Großvater hatte in den Bergen des Piemont für diese Republik in Erdlöchern gehaust und sein Leben riskiert. Der
Estonia has decided not to extend residence permit of the head of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate because his public actions & statements support the aggressor. He has not altered his conduct despite several warnings & will have to leave 🇪🇪 by February 6.
...cooperation between all democratic parties, and a clear emphasis on Ukrainian victory, including reparations, return of all children, and full territorial integrity. A high point of this debate.
RU hat eigene Schokoladenfabriken; es geht also nicht um die 🇷🇺Kinder, die gerne Schoki essen, sondern darum Geld zu machen.
In diesem Sinne: einen schönen Kindertag und insbesondere für die 🇺🇦 Kinder, die aufgrund des 🇷🇺Angriffskrieges diesen nicht erleben,
@RITTER_SPORT_DE
Folks, the unholy trifecta is complete.
Kara-Murza calls for cancellation of systemic sanctions on Russia.
Yashin calls for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
Pivovarov opposes military aid to Ukraine.
All three men were recently exchanged by the West for known Russian spies.
Es sind nicht nur ein paar Gazprom-Funktionäre an der Spitze.
So sieht es an der
@spdde
-Basis aus - Radio Moskau in Reinkultur.
Es ist dringend notwendig, die Rolle aller Akteure in der deutschen Russlandpolitik seit den 2000er Jahren gründlich aufzuarbeiten.
Der spanischsprachige Kanal von Deutsche Welle,
@dw_espanol
, lässt in dieser Sendung unter anderem die "Expertin" Aleksandra Sitenko zu Wort kommen, die dort knallhart russische Propaganda betreibt. 1/2
1/ Having been an
#InternationalRelations
professor from 2014-2020 (now a researcher in Latin American studies, but still an IR scholar...), I kinda felt compelled to comment on this. I know it's perhaps not the intention of the author, but this does sound as if IR scholars...
With Covid receding, another pandemic stalks humanity. I’m referring, of course, to the scourge of awful takes by IR specialists on Ukraine.
Their harebrained calls for “peace” betray an embarrassing ignorance of the subject, and they need to stop.
My latest in The Detox 🧵
...da gibt sich nämlich Moskau-Mütze der Großraumträumerei hin, und die EU und Russland teilen den Kontinent in "Einflusssphären" auf. Da wundert einen dann wirklich nichts mehr.
Indeed. The massacre currently being committed against Kharkiv must be the turning point for Western positions regarding long-distance precision strikes on Russian territory.
Ukraine cannot be protected, and cannot defend itself, without striking Russian territory.
We must empower and encourage and help Ukraine to do so. The current position of most Western governments on this issue, notably that of the Biden White House, is completely unacceptable.
So Russian terrorists are now murdering Ukrainian veterans on German streets.
We must end visas for Russian citizens, and the Z-Russian scene must be actively and harshly repressed, using the available counterterrorism laws.
❗️It is reported that the killer of Ukrainian servicemen in Murnau, Germany is a local Z-patriot who openly supported russian aggression and demonstratively wore patches with the Z symbol.
The boys had serious injuries to their limbs and could not fully defend themselves.
...continued pressure for this to become reality. Overall, what was demonstrated clearly is that the
#SPD
has not performed its own "
#Zeitenwende
", what was heard from them in this debate were delaying, distracting figures of speech. Truly a shameful performance.
Der
@spdde
-Ex-Bürgermeister von Bremen,
@carstensieling
, gibt dem Grünen und DDR-Bürgerrechtler Werner Schulze die Schuld am "Bellizismus von heute" (was auch immer das sein mag).
Die Sozialdemokraten entwickeln sich allmählich zu den Impfgegnern der deutschen Sicherheitspolitik.
@EichholtzAlex
@spdbt
@Bundeskanzler
Ausgelacht hat ihn niemand, aber seine Antworten waren falsch und haben dem Bellizismus von heute den Ergebnis. Und das ist heute die größte Gefahr für zukünftiges Leben in Europa.
@robinwagener
from the
#Greens
has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, and indicates some support for the
#CDU
motion, and criticism for the slowness of German support. Says that deciding on concrete systems is for the executive, shifting the responsibility to
@bundeskanzler
...
1/ As suggested by
@PopovaProf
, I'd like to comment on the recent remarks by the
#Brazilian
president-elect,
@LulaOficial
, on the
#Russian
war of aggression in
#Ukraine
. Needless to say, many were struck by the ignorance and brutishness of these utterances. A 🧵...
Sweden has authorized Ukraine to use Swedish-delivered weapon systems against targets in Russia.
"Ukraine may use Swedish weapons against targets in Russia. It is a welcome announcement from the Minister of Defense."
Sweden delivered a range of weapon systems to Ukraine, among
Eine "hidden agenda" der SPD im Bezug auf Russland ist ja angesichts der Historie von Schröder, Schwesig usw. VÖLLIG unwahrscheinlich und sicher reine Verschwörungstheorie... I'm with Toni.
Viele verurteilen mit Recht das Expertinnenbashing von Scholz & Co..
Was Anton Hofreiter tut, ist genauso schädlich: Extremmeinungen als Pseudo-Konsens der Expertencommunity konstruieren, um eigene fast verschwörungstheoretische "hidden agenda"-Fantasien zu stützen.
This is brilliant, every decision maker in NATO (and everybody else as well) should read it.
"To mobilize for what’s coming, we need a culture change in how we organize our economic activity and how we relate to each other in society."
By
@andrewmichta
.
Furchtbarer Terroranschlag in Russland geht wohl auf Konto islamistischen Terrors.
Noch ist Faktenlage unklar.
Putin beschuldigt Ukraine.
CDU Kollege
@RKiesewetter
spekuliert über russische „false flag“ Operation +beschimpft einmal mehr den Kanzler.
Verantwortung geht anders!
@hahnflo
@MiRo_SPD
has been one of the few decided Ukraine supporters in the governing
#SPD
. He criticizes the quality of Ukraine expertise that was provided in 2022 which was offered to the Scholz government by several experts, and rejected. I can't hear a clear call for
#Taurus
, though.
If four sources from Putin's circle suddenly start saying the same thing, then it's something that Putin wants us to believe, not something that we found out about Putin.
2/
@Reuters
reported on May 24 that four Russian sources who currently work or have worked with Putin stated that Putin is ready to negotiate a ceasefire that recognizes the current frontlines and that Putin is prepared to present the current amount of occupied Ukrainian
Das Russland-Programm der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung,
@fes_russia
, bringt in einer aktuellen Publikation russische Propaganda in Reinform.
Da wird aus Russland der tolle, zuverlässige Technologiepartner für den Globalen Süden, alles total ohne Probleme. 1/2
As a European citizen, I feel deep, deep shame that this great man who has led his people at war against barbarian hordes for 2 years now has to travel the world as a beggar to get the means to continue the fight. They fight alone, for all of us. What the hell is wrong with us?
...
@ChathamHouse
! With the enormous credibility that the institution usually enjoys, I was very disappointed to read this badly researched piece, and people not working in strategic studies or related areas might actually believe some of the claims. 2/x