Eric Markowitz
@EricMarkowitz
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Partner @NightviewCap . Columnist at @bigthink . Focused on longevity in business. Subscribe below 👇
Joined September 2009
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Today I'm sharing a very personal story. I hope that by sharing it, I might help someone else in the world.
In February 2023, I underwent emergency brain surgery to remove what — at the time — my doctors thought could be a stage 4 glioblastoma tumor: terminal brain cancer.
I
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The short version of what happened next is nothing short of a miracle: I got a second chance at life. I survived the surgery.
The growth turned out to be an abscess—not cancer.
Abscesses typically pop after 10 days or so. Mine was in my head for 4 weeks. I survived.
I have
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The experience has profoundly shifted my perspective on playing the long game, and I hope it's a perspective that will help others think about as they go through life.
Slow down. The long game is... long. But only if you're lucky.
The future isn't guaranteed. I'm so much
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Today, I'm writing about what happened next in a new bi-monthly essay about long-term thinking that I'm writing for
@bigthink
Business.
The column is called The Long Game. You can read it and sign up for it here.
My story has a happy ending...
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I wrote a goodbye letter to my daughter. I held my wife.
I called friends and family. My parents boarded a flight.
I spent the night before surgery thinking about the crushing irony of my professional identity as a "long-term investor" whose life was about to be cut short.
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My symptoms began in January 2023. I was an otherwise healthy, if not somewhat stressed out typical mid-30s dad. No major health issues before. Didn't drink. Ate pretty healthy. Normal dude.
One day, I started feeling nauseas. Then I started projectile vomiting. Then I was
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Emergency brain surgery was scheduled.
A craniotomy to this region of the brain is risky surgery, but the risk of doing nothing meant certain death.
Doctors explained it could either be a Stage 4 glioblastoma — terminal brain cancer — or an abscess that could pop at any point.
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The hospital did an MRI. Later, I'd learn the on-call radiologist missed something in the scan: a fast-growing lesion in my brain.
For the next 4 weeks, I lived in a hellish state of vertigo, nausea, and dizziness. In and out of the hospital.
In a month, I lost over 30
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Special thanks to
@chandlertuttle
@seantmcvey
@BobbyHugh
and Mike Hodgkinson at
@bigthink
.
And to my dear friend
@tomowenmorgan
(who is the ex-finance bro "Tom" mentioned in the essay)
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Loved this essay by
@joshtarasoff
about what he calls the tension between "implicit" and "explicit" forms of conviction
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My dear friend
@joshtarasoff
has published a beautiful new essay about how he thinks about investing over the long-term.
I loved his metaphor about "Potential versus Prediction"
"Seeing that a company has a bright future is like identifying a sapling as a sequoiadendron
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I loved this passage from "You and Your Research," a 1986 talk by the late Richard Hamming :
"The desire for excellence is an essential feature for doing great work. Without such a goal you will tend to wander like a drunken sailor...
The sailor takes one step in one
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Included in The Nightcrawler tonight -- smart Q&A with
@bhorowitz
and Mike Hodgkinson of
@bigthink
on the concept of 'hindsight'
I think this is a key point - big investing decisions are typically made with <5% of total information you'd like to have
cc
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I love this essay from
@NeckarValue
on the meme below that sums up so much of investing (and decision-making generally)
"What makes this journey so frustrating is that the relationship between effort and return inverts. Both the left and the right seem to move quickly and
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I'm insanely lucky to be alive. Today I shared my personal story with the
@TODAYshow
.
Slow down, think ahead, and play the long game!
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“There is a Moore’s Second Law, also known as Rock’s Law, which posits that the cost of a semiconductor fab doubles every four years.”
Great piece - “How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fab” by
@_brianpotter
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Please read my personal essay about surviving brain surgery—and what it means to play the long game.
Thank you to
@bigthink
for publishing.
I’ll be writing a series of columns on the practice and philosophy of long-term thinking.
Sign up in the link below 👇
@EricMarkowitz
“There is a playbook, and I want to share it.” The first article of The Long Game is out now:
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Excited to announce that
@bigthink
will now be publishing my newsletter, The Nightcrawler, each week.
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Drumroll…
Some personal news I’m very excited to share!
Introducing The Nightview Fund (NYSE: NITE):
A Future-Focused Equity ETF [thread... 🧵]
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I'm a big fan of
@borrowed_ideas
and his research.
A fascinating insight he uncovered (and I dug into further): despite the exponential growth of combustion engine vehicles in the early/mid 1920s, GM saw not one but TWO years of negative YoY growth in this period
source: A
I would like to point out that I have made some sloppy mistakes in some of the historical data for GM.
On my initial write-up, I have mistakenly thought US automobile industry's volume and sales to be GM's volume and sales from 1903 to 1926.
@EricMarkowitz
pointed the error to
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My first essay for
@FastCompany
magazine was just published.
In it I explore a fundamental question: where will humans continue to have an edge over AI?
How curiosity, emotional intelligence, and the capacity to learn from mistakes could present an enduring advantage over AI.
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From our most recent $TSLA thesis published April 2024: we review how a temporary dip in volume growth should be viewed over a longer time horizon—and put into historical perspective (by looking at auto growth a century ago in the 1920s...)
Meanwhile, we explore the
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For
@bigthink
, I wrote an essay about something I call "the black sheep paradox."
It's about how to break the herd mentality mindset in life, business, and investing.
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Some of my favorite pieces featured in The Nightcrawler tonight:
-
@neuranne
on human curiosity in age of AI
-
@_brianpotter
on how to build a semiconductor fab
-
@NeckarValue
on finding a thought partner
-
@ElliotTurn
and
@BillBrewsterTBB
on... everything
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What a cool experience to spend the day at the
@NYSE
for
@NightviewCap
's big day! Many thanks to the entire NYSE for welcome us.
Exciting times ahead.
Read more from our official announcement, disclosures, and how to invest:
Introducing The Nightview Fund (NYSE: NITE):
A Future-Focused Equity ETF [thread... 🧵]
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I'll be writing a new column every two weeks for
@bigthink
Business exploring a topic related to "playing the long game."
It will be sent out via The Nightcrawler and you can subscribe here:
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Some professional news: Thrilled to be writing a 2x/month column for
@bigthink
called The Long Game -- sign up in the link below
I'm a huge fan of what BigThink is building, and I believe this will be a great long-term collaboration between my firm
@NightviewCap
and the team at
“As an investor, this is all I think about: how do I make decisions today that will play out well in the coming years? There is a playbook,” says long-termist investor
@EricMarkowitz
in his new Big Think Business column The Long Game, which lays out how to make hard, consistent
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Featured in The Nightcrawler w/
@bigthink
today is
@JeremySternLA
's epic story on one of the most fascinating guys in tech.
Some other great reads by
@RihardJarc
,
@sarahtavel
and others.
Sign up to receive every Friday ↓
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For The Nightcrawler this week in
@bigthink
, I recap the convo between
@GavinSBaker
and
@patrick_oshag
on the (multi) trillion-dollar race to create “Digital God”
You can tell Gavin has spent years in the trenches—his insights on semis and AI infrastructure are top-shelf.
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I wrote about idea generation, learning, and the creative benefits of taking long walks.
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Featured in the most recent edition of The Nightcrawler
@neuranne
on the neuroscience of curiosity
@Speedwell_LLC
on long-term vs. event-driven investing
@cyantist
and
@patrick_oshag
on optimism, curiosity, artistry, and spirituality
@Andercot
on the future of SaaS
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I like this: “Great investors develop Active Patience. Active Patience means knowing what you are looking for and doing nothing until you find it.”
It bothers me when I hear investors tout the number of hours of due diligence they perform before buying something new. “I do weeks/months of due diligence”. It’s a meaningless metric. Knowing everything isn’t important. Knowing what is important is what matters. Once you fully
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Market declines are a good reminder that the price of daily liquidity is volatility.
Focus on the actual businesses you own.
The rest is noise.
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I liked this framing of long-termism from
@MstarBenJohnson
:
“The further we remove ourselves from the inexplicable day-to-day gyrations of the market, the less risky we will perceive our investments to be. This, in theory, should help us to stay the course.”
Included in
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Issue 133 of The Nightcrawler:
-The psychology of negativity and groupthink (
@DKThomp
and
@jayvanbavel
)
-Focus as a scarce commodity in a hyper-distracted world (
@dwarkesh_sp
)
-Lessons from the ultra-wealthy (
@NeckarValue
)
-Invest for the decades, not the years
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"Jerry Garcia is on my Mount Rushmore of great CEOs"
Loved this gem of an insight from
@bhalligan
, excerpted in The Nightcrawler +
@bigthink
.
Brian—who wrote a book about the Grateful Dead in addition to founding Hubspot—makes the case to
@ShaneAParrish
of
@farnamstreet
that
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Love that
@tomowenmorgan
is getting the big stage
“Evolution’s solution to combinatorial explosiveness is curiosity”💪🏼🧠
It took me 3 months to put 10 years of research on curiosity into a 20min presentation...
...So when
@GrahamDuncanNYC
challenged me to compress it down to 5min for the
@SohnConf
yesterday, I obviously went insane.
Here it is.
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Brilliant essay from
@dr_mcgilchrist
that touches so many topics: AI and the brain, our quality of life, the future of humanity...
"What matters for the future of humanity is imagination."
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"Game selection is more important than playing skill. And you find it all over capital markets. Young people are very rarely told about it. The game you select to play is more important than how well you play it."
via
@alixpasquet
"How to be a great analyst"
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Studying jazz music helped Brad Jacobs learn to improvise, a skill that's arguably undervalued in business and investing.
"That ability to go with the flow in music, you need to have that in business"
Loved this conversation with
@ShaneAParrish
in
@farnamstreet
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In the most recent Nightcrawler (link to sign up in bio)
@tsaicapital
on the power and challenges of compounding
@kevindstevens
on investor psychology
@tomowenmorgan
on cultivating wisdom
@colemanm
on effectiveness vs. efficiency
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A tiny shrub—the Schrenkiella parvula—has survived for millions of years in the most inhospitable environment on earth.
What can this plant teach us about longevity?
cc
@chandlertuttle
@BobbyHugh
@seantmcvey
@dan_hayes
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Some fantastic pieces featured this week in The Nightcrawler -
@ToddWenning
@morganhousel
and
@ChrisPavese
to name a few.
Featured in The Nightcrawler tonight 🧵
Sign up below to receive The Nightcrawler every Friday evening.
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My 3-year-old asked what “investing” was this morning.
Any good ideas of how to explain the concept to a toddler?
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highlighted in The Nightcrawler for this evening is a fantastic
@InvestLikeBest
conversation with Ken Langone - so many gems in here
cc
@ReustleMatt
@patrick_oshag
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"When we take the time to consider the second and third order consequences, including our own biases, disentangling the signal from the noise, we’re more likely to determine the most favorable decision."
@neuranne
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Where the human brain (still) has an edge over AI
"Consider a field like investing. There is no doubt that AI will become vastly more capable than any single individual in digesting and interpreting vast sums of industry and company data. And perhaps AI may react more rationally
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Thinking about longevity:
Consider Kongō Gumi, a construction company that operated in Japan for >1,400 years (!)
Some details of the firm culture: obsessed with quality craftsmanship, competitions among workers to encourage excellence, and the "ability to balance respect for
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"There's still a lot of work to be done, but it has already changed my life."
Love this
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Excellent peach harvest in the backyard mini-farm this year
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I wrote about resilience in business through the lens of crisis.
It turns out, what doesn't kill you really does make you stronger. My latest for
@bigthink
-
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The older I get, the more I think this is true across life, business, and investing.
Focus is a compounding superpower.
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I'm a fan of
@alc2022
and his work/mission - if you're not already a subscriber to his newsletter, check out what he's up to and give him a follow.
I want to build an educational institution that produces millions of critical and independent thinkers PER YEAR that can then go on to become Sovereign Individuals on the Internet, making a living (or a fortune) from both their investments and their content businesses.
(Along
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This is very well put - "If the durability of the business model has changed or is at greater risk, so should your position. The opposite is also true."
Tough couple of days for the P&L. Its funny how risk can happen slowly (or not at all) and then happen all at once. The market always has a way of humbling its participants.
Those who are discipline and maintain perspective will ultimately be rewarded.
During times like this,
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We just published a smart research essay by our analyst
@cameron_tierney
on how the massive boom in AI spending could benefit the big 3 cloud providers over the next several years
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This was a lot of fun -
@bogumil_nyc
asks the best questions
Talking Billions: Eric Markowitz: Lessons from Investigative Journalism, Playing Long Games, Finding Generational Winners -- listen on Spotify, Apple Podcast, and YouTube -- Eric is a kind soul with so much wisdom to share, I was honored and delighted to have him on the show!
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"Unfortunately, we are often capability blind: We don’t notice what’s new because we’re jaded by our old experiences and feel that it’s a waste of time to try again." Smart piece by
@danshipper
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Very excited for
@tomowenmorgan
- this will be fascinating to watch
I'm beyond excited to announce the launch of The Leading Edge!
We are a new network for personal evolution. Join us!
Read more here:
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"If you anchor to the old world where good work meant physical action, it’s hard to wrap your head around the idea that the most productive use of a knowledge-worker’s time could be sitting on a couch thinking."
@morganhousel
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love this excellent special issue on Hindight -
@bigthink
publishes arguably the smartest commentary and insights for long-term thinkers/builders/investors
highly recommend reading and signing up for their newsletters. cc
@chandlertuttle
@BobbyHugh
@seantmcvey
How does looking back move us forward?
This is the key question that inspired Hindsight, a special issue on Big Think Business. With insights from tech legend Ben Horowitz, bestselling author Chip Conley + more, we take a hard look at the past to see how we can shape the future.
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Amazon is 29 years old... here's how
@ajassy
thinks about resiliency for the long-term. $AMZN
Thinking about longevity:
Consider Kongō Gumi, a construction company that operated in Japan for >1,400 years (!)
Some details of the firm culture: obsessed with quality craftsmanship, competitions among workers to encourage excellence, and the "ability to balance respect for
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The Nightcrawler Issue
#134
tonight:
-
@HowardMarksBook
on the link between chess and investing
-
@joelmcohen
on the importance of filtering information
-
@ProfAndrewScott
on the longevity "revolution"
+more
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So many good pieces this week featuring
@DavidEpstein
,
@cragcrest
,
@ballmatthew
-- and special thanks to
@NeckarValue
for pointing me to the
@G_S_Bhogal
piece on gamification -- excellent essay
Featured in The Nightcrawler this week 🧵
Sign up here:
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"curiosity is a relational force"
finally got a chance to watch this. great work from
@tomowenmorgan
There's one extraordinary idea that holds the potential to meaningfully change the world.
I’ve been exploring it for nearly 10 years. I've spent the last few months compressing that research into a 20 minute presentation.
Here it is:
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Issue
#129
of The Nightcrawler this week:
@ShaneAParrish
and Brad Jacobs on music, art, investing, and psychology
@philosophyminis
on "pluralistic ignorance" and avoiding groupthink
@Speedwell_LLC
explores a thoughtful interpretation about risk/reward in stocks
Studying jazz music helped Brad Jacobs learn to improvise, a skill that's arguably undervalued in business and investing.
"That ability to go with the flow in music, you need to have that in business"
Loved this conversation with
@ShaneAParrish
in
@farnamstreet
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“We no longer have to settle for log cabins when we can build skyscrapers.”
Smart piece from
@packyM
I think we'll see more $100B+ companies born today than ever before and that a lot of them will be Techno-Industrials that combine a number of tools to go after hard challenges.
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Some top-tier selections tonight featuring work by
@FoundersPodcast
,
@mjmauboussin
,
@_brianpotter
,
@KingsmillBond
,
@ThisIsSethsBlog
, and more!
Featured in The Nightcrawler tonight 🧵⬇️
Sign up here to receive each week in your inbox:
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Dwarkesh writes beautifully about improving as a podcaster, but the underlying idea is applicable to pretty much any endeavor in life
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New post from
@ArneAlsin
with a provocative twist -
"Rather than destroying the legacy auto business, Tesla just might be the savior of the very industry I expected it to dismantle." $tsla
New research from
@ArneAlsin
:
Instead of Disrupting the Auto Industry, What If Tesla Ends Up Saving It? $TSLA
"Once viewed by many (including me) as a threat to traditional automakers, Tesla’s FSD could become their saving grace. By licensing this technology, companies like
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Great essay from
@paulg
on "the right kind of stubborn"
Loved this: "Energy and imagination make a wonderful combination. Each gets the best out of the other. Energy creates demand for the ideas produced by imagination, which thus produces more, and
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I got a sneak peak at this new series -- it's a fantastic short doc about the future of energy and the implications for just about every industry on the planet..
Follow
@freethinkmedia
to watch the first episode, which launches next week.
cc
@BobbyHugh
@seantmcvey
Zoom in, then zoom way out.
This is the format of our new flagship series, The Freethink Interview.
Join us for thought-provoking conversations with some of the world’s most interesting and ambitious technologists as we explore humanity’s future at three different scales:
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Super interesting insight from
@mjmauboussin
's piece on pattern recognition, drawing on chess as an example:
"...intuitive expertise and pattern recognition tend to work well in stable environments where cause and effect are clear and participants can receive timely and accurate
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✈️ An unexpected overnight in Denver last night, but looking forward to seeing many friends soon! Already ran into the great
@vitaliyk
in the airport.
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This was excellent — lots of wisdom and historical perspective. Thanks to
@WilliamGreen72
@BobRobotti
Featured in The Nightcrawler this week: "A new golden age" with
@BobRobotti
and
@WilliamGreen72
Key quote: “The indices will not outperform selecting stocks. And the ability to identify, do research, select companies that are well-positioned and have
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"Do all the other things, the ambitious things — travel, get rich, get famous, innovate, lead, fall in love, make and lose fortunes, swim naked in wild jungle rivers (after first having it tested for monkey poop) – but as you do, to the extent that you can, err in the direction
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This quote is from one of
@tomowenmorgan
’s latest essays, a provocative insight into why we should all spend more time studying myths.
It’s excerpted in The Nightcrawler this week for
@bigthink
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Leo Tolstoy: "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time."
My 2.5-old-year: [shouting at me from her carseat while we're stuck in traffic] "WAITING IS HARD!"
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This was great - "Surprisingly, wisdom doesn’t correlate that strongly with either age or intelligence. While our intelligence tends to peak in our early twenties, the pursuit of wisdom has no upper limits. If we choose to focus on it, wisdom and expertise can even be
Featured in The Nightcrawler this week: Accelerating Wisdom Episode 1: How to Accelerate Expertise – via
@tomowenmorgan
and
@ejames_c
Key quote: “In order to understand what experts get right, you need to first understand what novices get wrong. We are
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loved this column by
@DanCrowleyNVC
some timeless (and funny) insights: "As a general rule, if the feared outcome involves the complete collapse of the economic system, it’s not worth excessive worry—especially if the message is delivered in the form of a paid newsletter."
NEW ESSAY: The Power of Addition by Subtraction
By Nightview Capital portfolio manager Daniel Crowley, CFA
@dancrowleynvc
The question: How does one make smarter investment decisions in an age of endless information?
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This week we published a long-form thesis on $amzn as part of our Q2 2024
@NightviewCap
Letter.
Read below or click here to read and subscribe:
Credit to
@cameron_tierney
and
@DanCrowleyNVC
for their excellent work on this.
Nightview Capital Q2 2024 Letter:
Amazon ($AMZN): Long-term Thesis 🧵
In this quarterly overview, we will look at Amazon’s core business lines and where we see potential for outperformance.
Our analysis focuses mainly on areas where we believe the market, while generally
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Great interview. My guess is most people underestimate the exponential growth ahead for solar. Next decade will be 🤯
"10 years ago, my colleagues and I looked at the prognosis for Climate Change, and it looked pretty hopeless. There really was no way out.”
Then, they found a way out.
In our first-ever Freethink Interview, Casey Handmer (
@CJHandmer
) explains how.
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Looking back into the
@NightviewCap
archives: some commentary on $AMZN from our Q3 2023 Investor Letter last year. Also thoughts on $GOOG and $TSLA cc
@DanCrowleyNVC
@cameron_tierney
"And yet, our view of Amazon’s value continues to rise.
We view the slowdown in cloud growth
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Excited to be working on this research report, which covers how we envision the future of AI... 🤖
Sign up below to receive $tsla
Inside Tesla's ChatGPT Moment
We're working on another $tsla deep-dive report, to be launched before the 10/10 Robotaxi event.
The main focus will be on Tesla’s approach to autonomy, both for its application in FSD and general robotics (i.e. humanoid robot). 🤖🦾
Sign up
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Today's issue features insights from
@neuranne
on second-level thinking,
@ConradBastable
on tech monopolies,
@Jack_Raines
on the perils of comfort,
@ev_rat
's fantastic new podcast series, and more.
You can sign up in the link above.
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Smart piece from
@philosophyminis
in
@bigthink
on the paradox of learning from mistakes:
"We must learn from the past and grow from our mistakes, and yet every moment stretching before us is new. Everything in our future is strange and unfamiliar. It might resemble the past in
The past informs us, but it doesn't define us. How can you cultivate resilience and long-term vision in the face of a paradox?
@philosophyminis
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"The Cost of Apathy" via
@Jack_Raines
“The irony of modern life is that those of us with the means to really, truly live, who can afford to take risks and strike out on our own and blaze our own paths, are the least likely to do it... so we continue existing, not living, and
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"We're blind to our blindness," Daniel Kahneman once said. "We have very little idea of how little we know."
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