Todd Wenning
@ToddWenning
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Founder, President & CIO of @knacapital Blog: Disclosures: Lecturer @univofdayton
Cincinnati, OH
Joined November 2011
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I'm happy to announce the launch of KNA Capital Management, an investment management firm pending state registration, where I serve as President and CIO.
KNA's equity strategy seeks to identify companies with economic moats led by thoughtful stewards of shareholder capital,
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Tried my hand at a one-pager of my investment philosophy. Nothing revolutionary, but an enjoyable exercise.
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Every so often I think about this story that Triple H told on the Tim Ferris podcast years ago about the time he visited Floyd Mayweather before a fight.
Pertains to investment research. You either did the work or you didn’t.
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Being a liberal arts major, completing the CFA exam was the biggest accomplishment of my career. I failed L1 once and L2 twice. Accounting and quant crushed me. After failing L2 the second time, my wife had to talk me into going back. I’m glad she did.
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What’s a European company in the top 1-2% of the quality universe that most American investors don’t understand/fully appreciate?
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@lowtideinvest
@patrick_oshag
His 2014 VIC presentation changed the way I think about paying up for quality
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Two great pieces of public speaking advice I got over the years: 1) If you’re not nervous, you don’t care. 2) The audience wants you to succeed. They want to learn and/or be entertained. What advice have you received that you found helpful?
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10 essential differences between a good and a bad business, from Keith Ashworth-Lord’s (Buffettology Fund) book, Invest in the Best. Good read, btw.
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How lucky we were to live at the same time as Charlie Munger and learn from him. Rest in peace, sir.
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Unreal. “of Chick-fil-A’s 1,836 U.S. freestanding restaurants outside of malls… average annual sales volumes clocked in at $8.142 million last year, with 849 of those, or 46 percent, producing figures at or above. One operator pushed $17.16 million.”
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Craziest thing I heard in a while - Michael Phelps only has one remaining world record.
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From Lowenstein’s Buffett biography.
Important to study market history. The details change, but behaviors don’t.
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Said goodbye to our companion of more than 15 years yesterday. She loved to swim in this life and we hope that's what she's doing now.
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Bernstein chart showing the starting P/S cohorts for subsequent 5- and 10-year 10-baggers.
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I often don’t write on a topic either because I’ve already written about it years ago or I’ve convinced myself someone has already said it better. This, from Anne Lamott, explains why this is silly thinking.
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Conviction is being able to sit across from Buffett, have him tell you your best idea is trash, and still confidently own the position.
From Concentrated Investing by
@Greenbackd
, Benello, and Van Biema.
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One of the best decks I’ve seen on moat and management
Dorsey Asset Management: Competitive Advantage & Capital Allocation, October 2023
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In my experience, there is no better way to accelerate your learning and retention of a subject than to write about it publicly. Publishing forces you to anticipate and consider questions and criticisms, leading to a broader understanding.
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When you buy a stock that goes up 50% but passed on one that went up 500%.
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My wife spent hours planting tulip bulbs today. As she put it: “No outcome for 7 months - I can’t even tell I did anything today. But the eventual payoff makes it worthwhile.” If that’s not a good investing analogy, I’m not sure what is.
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My first trip to BRK was full-fanboy mode to see Buffett/Munger (pre-webcast days), but my 4th was about seeing old friends and meeting new friends. It’s a unique event: no bank sponsor, global audience, and is a positive, learning atmosphere. Every investor should go once.
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Today is my last day at Ensemble Capital. Working with Sean and Arif for over five years challenged previously-held assumptions and helped me develop further as an investor. I will forever appreciate the team’s support when our daughter was in the hospital a few years ago, and I
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My 2010s:
👨👩👧👦2 great kids & 10+ years of marriage
🚛Moved: Alexandria> London> Chicago> Cincinnati
🏘Sold/bought house
🧮(Finally) Passed CFA Level III
📖Wrote a book & articles/blog posts
👨🎓Taught an MBA finance course
📈Newsletters > sell-side > buy-side
What a decade 🙏
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The first lasso was impressive enough, but the second was even better
A cow was on the loose on the highway in Oklahoma, so they brought in a Cowboy to take care of it.
Dudes rock.
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I’ve found
@mjmauboussin
‘s Man Overboard study to be particularly helpful when thinking about daily drops >10%. Helps to have some rational baseline. Anyone long FB may want to give it a read.
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Another podcast to add to your rotation - Hosking Partners was founded by Jeremy Hosking, who co-founded Marathon Asset Management (Capital Cycle, Capital Returns).
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The early success of Disney Plus speaks to the power (and scarcity) of content that not only endures for decades but links generations. Its been a blast watching old favorites with my kids - shows I watched with my grandmother when I was their age.
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Today I launched Flyover Stocks (link in profile) which will be my writing platform going forward. We'll talk investing strategy, philosophy, portfolio management, company analysis, and more.
We'll also be in pursuit of overlooked quality companies led by thoughtful stewards of
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“In this business, you get paid for your stomach.”
-Paraphrasing Joel Greenblatt as told to
@williamgreen72
on the Investor’s Podcast
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The chapter on Nick Sleep and Zak Zakaria in
@williamgreen72
’s book “Richer, Wiser, Happier” should be required reading for every investor.
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Last year, Todd Combs disclosed that he and Buffett look for S&P companies:
* With 15x P/E
* Going to earn more in five years (90% confidence)
* Will compound earnings at 7% (50% confidence)
Those may seem like random numbers and confidence levels, but here's how I think about
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Bull markets test your discipline; bear markets test your character.
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This morning I shared my thoughts on UK building material supplier, Howdens Joinery (link in bio). Howdens has one of the best annual reports I've ever read and its expanding network of trade-only depots across the UK, France, and Ireland makes it a formidable competitor in the
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The individual investor’s greatest advantage is his or her ability to be patient. As you learn to invest, find ways to help you maximize this advantage. Turn off real-time quotes, take a day to think before placing a trade, focus on dividends, FCF, ROIC, etc.
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8 years ago, a dear friend passed away at 31 years old from complications related to lung cancer. Every June 28 is tough, but this one is poignant as my two kids are the same age now as his were when he passed. Hug the ones you love, take nothing for granted.
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This lesson from
@mjmauboussin
’s More Than You Know has stuck with me since I read it years ago.
Fear and stress naturally shorten our time horizons and don’t mix well with successful long term investing.
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One of the best discussions around economic moats I've seen in popular financial media, talking about the Bloomberg terminal's various competitive advantages.
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It’s time intensive, but I get a lot of value out of entering historical financials by hand when I’m building a model. You notice abnormalities, one-offs, and how frequently some companies change reporting segments. The cleaner and the more consistent, the better.
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One of the things I remember about 08-09 was how smart the pessimists sounded. I regret I bought into some of it then.
Optimism seems naive in uncertain times, but it’s the attitude you must have if you hope to be a successful long term investor.
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@BrianFeroldi
It’s counterintuitive, but sometimes a stock that goes from $50 to $60 (or whatever) is a better value at $60 than at $50. Stocks are not static assets. The underlying business improves or worsens.
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@marketplunger1
Might be a stretch, but I do think there's value in doing what he does in a place like Omaha. Less distraction, less FOMO, stable quality of life, etc.
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Probably the dumbest thing I ever wrote. From a March 2010 article. Before I learned about anchoring bias...
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It’s uncool to reference Buffett on FinTwit, but his line about only investing in something you’d be perfectly happy to own if they shut down the market for five years seems appropriate to consider this week.
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Long-term investors can relate to this conversation from The Crown on Netflix
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One of the hardest things to learn as an investor is knowing what's worth reading and what isn't. Only so many hours in a day. This article provides a good framework for sifting through articles and white papers. (+ a deserved h/t to
@abnormalreturns
)
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Pretty safe to say Buffett bought the $3.17 McDonald’s breakfast today.
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Solid interview w/ Nick Train. “All great investors are very very bright people, but I know a lot of bright people who turn out to be not good investors.”
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There are a lot of great businesses in the world. Don’t feel the need to “collect them all” in your portfolio, as if they are meant to be on display. (It can be tempting.) Focus on the ones that you understand best, have the most confidence in, and are attractively priced.
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If you’re invested in alcohol, sugar, caffeine-related businesses, keep an eye on continuous glucose monitoring technology. Have to think demand trends change for those products as people see how they impact their bodies in real time.
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“Often, I ask myself a very simple question: 'How likely is this business to be around in ten years' time and to be more valuable than today?' It's surprising how many businesses fail this test.” - Anthony Bolton
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We tend to overweight our confidence in low probability outcomes (e.g., lottery tickets) and underweight our confidence in high probability outcomes. One of the reasons slow but steady companies can be routinely undervalued in the market.
Chart - Fundsmith (2013) via Kahneman.
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Had a lot of fun working on this with Sean and Arif.
We're excited to share a diagram of Ensemble Capital's investment philosophy. This is at the heart of everything we do in our portfolio and everything we talk about on our blog and here on Twitter.
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Tom Russo is advising a student fund at Columbia that has the best structure I’ve heard of in a student fund. Picks must be held for five years. Too many student funds are glorified speculation.
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Don’t just invest in “what you know.” It’s too narrow. Instead, look to invest in what you can understand and will enjoy following. You’ll learn more, too, by looking for great companies in different industries and global markets.
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I would not have believed 10 years ago that $MMM would have a negative 10 year return (flat total return) over the next decade. Starting P/E was 18, as well.
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My brother in law is a police sergeant and was awarded a medal of valor tonight for apprehending a gunman and saving a juvenile in the suspect’s car. Kind of puts my spreadsheet struggles into some perspective.
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By no means calling a bottom, but REITs are one of the more disliked/avoided sectors right now. Could be some opportunities…
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My wife was awarded our town’s Citizen of the Year tonight for her volunteer work. Very proud.
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In early March ‘09, I was ready to buy some Tractor Supply. Next few days the stock surged and after months of turbulent markets I thought, “It’ll be back.” Went on to more than 10x.
If you think you’ve found a great company at a big discount, don’t get greedy.
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Yesterday morning, we welcomed a baby girl to our family. All are well. Dad is smitten.
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I’ve come to find that the better I understand the businesses I own, the less caught up I get in stock market swings - both up and down. Focus on fundamental momentum - earnings, FCF, dividend growth, etc. Eventually the stock price will reflect the fundamentals.
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Basketball IQ off the charts
Here’s two minutes of nothing but great Larry Bird passes. You’re welcome.
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I remember Akre telling the story about buying AMT for less than $1 in the telco bust. Today it’s his largest position and the stock recently hit a 52-week high at ~$260.
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Was recently introduced to this podcast, which recounts classic business rivalries. I’m two episodes in and enjoying it. Serves as a counter to hindsight bias. Good reminder that business/investing is hard.
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Best Berkshire letter in recent memory.
Loved this nod to all the great businesses in middle America.
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In 2008, we bought our first house and were installing new flooring. We found some we liked and bought as much as we could thinking there would be more coming to the store. We were one box short of finishing the job.
A few weeks passed and none of the local $HD stores had more
Anyone else have memories tied to specific stocks?
Like I will see a ticker and immediately think of my niece's birthday party - because I was sweating the stock that day.
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I’ve missed a number of great investments over the years that we’re right under my nose. All I had to do was look at where I/we were spending money every month and start digging into those companies.
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You know you’re an investing family when you text using tickers. “Going to SBUX...”
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Our daughter had her 4th and final surgery on her arm yesterday. She’s a year older since her 3rd and was more aware this time. She was scared but didn’t cry. Definition of courage. Couldn’t be prouder. Doing fine now.
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Being strict with an investing checklist can save you from failures...but it can also prevent success. No company rings all the bells. One thing I’m working on is weighing attributes. Does X disqualify the company or is X just a minor imperfection? 1/2
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If you’re a moat-focused investor, you should be overwhelmed with fresh research ideas right now.
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This month’s Flyover Stock is Halma plc
#HLMA
.
Halma is a serial acquirer like $DHR, $AME, and $IEX, has a 50+ year track record, and is focused on the safety, environmental and analysis, and healthcare end markets.
It’s increased profit for 20 consecutive years and has
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It's a time suck, but I advise entering historical financials into your models, especially if it's your first time through a company. Much easier to notice things when you're hand-stitching.
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@iancassel
Yep. When Buffett says his favorite holding period is forever, he is not saying it’s his only holding period. I think people get that confused sometimes.
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Once you understand compound interest, buying a car much less enjoyable.
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Chuck Akre on selling, from a 2012 interview with Morningstar
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Research tip: do a podcast search for the company and management team. You will be surprised at how much is out there.
Example: $ODFL has is own podcast called Cargo Shorts (awesome name) and talks about issues in the LTL space.
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“Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company. So then I got a call from him, saying we don't have to worry about money no more. And I said, that's good! One less thing.”
Apple Returns...
1-Year: +47%
2-Year: +171%
3-Year: +336%
5-Year: +580%
7-Year: +608%
10-Year: +1,400%
15-Year: +6,540%
20-Year: +51,884%
25-Year: +97,580%
Since IPO in Dec 1980: +178,500%
$AAPL
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When you’re younger, you have the time, but typically not the capital or the investing knowledge. When you’re older, you often have the capital and knowledge, but not the time. To maximize compounding potential: learn early, save early.
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Wild horses of the Outer Banks. Descendants of Spanish mustangs abandoned by Spanish ships in the 1500s.
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This is a terrible idea.
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A lesson I learned from
@FoolJeffFischer
10 years ago is to keep some cash for bad market days. Taking a positive action, however small, in negative times has a powerful behavioral impact.
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The lower you go on the quality scale, the more important valuation becomes. Great companies at fair prices, fair companies at great prices.
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Was just thinking about how much
@AswathDamodaran
‘s online resources helped me early in my career. As a liberal arts major, I had a lot of catching up to do, and his class videos, notes, and data were (and are) invaluable. Thanks, Professor.
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While you're hitting refresh on the Berkshire website, stop on over to Flyover Stocks to read a summary of my profile of Hawkins $HWKN. (link in bio)
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Need to get my HVAC replaced. Yeah, you might say that’s an industry with some pricing power. Goodness.
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The Shenandoah Valley is one of the most beautiful areas of the country.
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Culture eats strategy for breakfast
Chick-fil-A employees out here in the rain, during a pandemic, looking like human traffic cones
And not one forgot to say “my pleasure”
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You know you've written a good post when people remember it years after it was published. This one from
@JohnHuber72
on portfolio turnover is one I keep coming back to.
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This kids’ book should be standard issue for new investors.
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Yesterday, my son took a hard fall off his bike going downhill. A few stitches and a little teeth chipping. He's fine. The doctor at the urgent care said if he hadn't been wearing his helmet he would have been in the ER instead.
Just a quick plug for bike helmets.
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