Alan Rowland
@AlanCRowland
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Racing analyst and founding member of Form Nerds.
Sydney
Joined May 2012
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One piece of advice I like to give punters is to be brutally honest with yourself. I'm sure you've all heard the quote attributed to Einstein: "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." We punters have to be on the watch
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Most punters and commentators seem to think I'm Thunderstruck was victim of position in running and race sectionals in Underwood. I disagree. In my book he doesn't run beyond a mile. Happy to oppose over 2000m in coming weeks.
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Melbourne Cup market:
$4.70 Realm Of Flowers
$4.80 Smokin Romans
$13 Deauvulle Legend
$18 Hoo Ya Mal
$19 Without A Fight
$21 Interpretation
ROF loves 3200m, Flemington and wet and has postage stamp weight and lovely barrier. I'm forgiving SR poor CC run. Should go forward.
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@tomniedrich
@ClareONeilMP
This is the strongest argument why people should vote no. You are absolutely right. The Voice will give power to the activists who are stuck in this victimhood mentality based on perceived injustices 50-200 years old. They do not want to get on with living the best life they can,
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Pennyweka is a good thing in the Oaks. Last start winner of G1 (granted was weak race) over the trip and won previously on heavy 10. Fav won't handle heavy. Fireburn just isn't as good as 3yo. Arts was good last start but 4th race start in Oaks - no thanks.
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TIMEFORM MARES – ALL-TIME LEADERS
1 Black Caviar – 136
2 Winx — 134
3eq Sunline — 129
3eq Makybe Diva — 129
3eq Pride of Jenni — 129
This is nuts isn't it? I don't have Pride Of Jenni in the same ballpark as Sunline and Makybe Diva. The closest race in my lifetime I can think of
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Goodwood rated prices:
$3.10 Johnny Rocker
$8.00 I Am Me
$9.00 Skybird
$9.00 Oscars Fortune
$12 Amelias Jewel
$13 Learning To Fly
$14 Benedetta
Some may remember I had Johnny Rocker big overs in the TJ Smith, but I did say at the time that he was a query on the wet track. He ran
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TJ Smith rated prices:
$4.20 Imperatriz
$5.10 Johnny Rocker
$6.00 Sunshine In Paris
$8.50 Bella Nipotina
$9.00 I Wish I Win
$11.00 Magic Time
Imperatriz is a champion sprinter, but is best at Moonee Valley and perhaps not at her best in Sydney, although only the one run there so
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A heavy track is looking increasingly likely for Randwick Saturday. A couple of futures for me at $21 in the Doncaster are Zougotcha and Lady Laguna. Both handle wet.
I think Johnny Rocker is massive overs at $26 in the TJ Smith. First prep with Nick Ryan, a trainer I rate
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How good are Grant and Alana Williams? On my trainer ratings they are right at the pointy end every year. What they have done with Western Empire is just outstanding.
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Stradbroke rated prices:
$4.00 Antino
$5.50 Roll On High
$10 Benedetta
$11 Vilana
$20 Freedom Rally
$20 Amenable
$20 Semana
Does anyone know what happened to Antino in the Kingsford Smith Cup? Put in the worst run of his career. If I was sure he is 100% for the Stradbroke I'd
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Can someone explain to me why Riff Rocket has firmed to $2.50 with most bookies? I had thought it would drift and Zardozi would start favourite. Surely Zardozi is more likely to handle the heavy track and the distance. Most media tipsters on Sky and Racing,com are also strongly
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Caulfield Cup market:
$1.55 Smokin Romans
$34 Montefilia
$36 Allegron
$47 Durston
$48 Inspirational Girl
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My market for M+P:
$3.70 Alligator Blood (suspect if soft 7+)
$4.20 Anamoe (will peak in CP)
$6.30 Zaaki (Caulfield?, ls poor)
$13 Mr Brightside
$13 Mounga
$22 I'm Thunderstruck (mile is his limit)
$46 Benaud
$140 Nonconformist
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The Australian Cup is a great race for a form nerd like me. Lots of exposed form and intrigue with regards pace, distance, Flemington vs Caulfield. As an intellectual challenge it is fantastic!
This is my market:
$1.80 Pride Of Jenni
$6.00 Mr Brightside
$8.00 Atishu
$14 Legarto
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Everest rated market
$5.70 Lost And Running
$6.70 Jacquinot
$7.20 Nature Strip
$9.90 Mazu
$11 Eduardo
Before you ask, no you can't have $7.20 NS. Why do I think he's a lay? Because he has an awful second up history. The 28 days will help, but I have to take him on.
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Gold Coast Cup rated prices:
$2.50 Rattle And Hum
$7.00 Boi D'Argent
$9.00 Tapildoodledo
$10 Bonny Ezra
$14 Regal Lion
$16 Red Wave
Does anyone have any information on the wet tracks Rattle And Hum raced on in Ireland? My source only have them as 'soft'. In fact I have a
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Beware the overs trap. Framing markets and backing overs has been popular with serious punters since Don Scott’s first book Winning was published in 1978. The concept of backing horses at odds longer than your rated price goes back before 1978, but Don Scott’s series of books had
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Gee some cash went down the drain (over $400k on Betfair alone) in the 2nd at Caulfield with Mawallock. Seemed as though was everyone's best of the day and had been heavily backed early in betting. Was a little easy in last 20 minutes before jump. I guess it's a reminder not to
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Wish I Win lay of the day. I Have the mares Bella, Chain and Secret equal $5.00 chances.
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You can still get $1.70 Vermentino with Ladbrokes. Too short you say? It may not look too short when bolts in at $1.40. Take in a multi.
#ticksalltheboxes
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Storm Boy is poison odds at $2.30. If you like him, keep your powder dry. Will start $3.00+. It's only hype which has made him so short. Take a line through Waterhouse Slipper winners with similar leadup form. In 2020 Farnan won Todman by 1.8 and started $4.80 in GS. Vancouver
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Qld Oaks rated prices:
$2.80 Mare Of Mt Buller
$4.20 Scarlet Oak
$7.00 Molly Bloom
$12 Moonlight Magic
Mare of Mt Buller is bred to run the trip, has had a lovely preparation, has a nice barrier and has G1 trainer. Favourite Scarlet Oak is also a big chance but has a poor
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@J_Walter23
Yeah I get what they are doing, but personally I'd prefer less people at the races, but who actually appreciate the racing/punting. But since I don't go any more what I think doesn't matter.
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I have just rated the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I have Pride Of Jenni rating a new peak, but only marginally higher than her Champions Mile win and her Australian Cup 2nd. In my opinion Bates rated her extremely well. She went fast, but within POJ's ability to sustain the pace
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I think Amade is a reasonable bet in Adelaide Cup at $13. Negatives are he's 9yo and only 3rd up off a long spell. However he won 2nd up over 2600m off a longer spell in 2021. Clincher is his 3000-3200m form is awesome. Won 6/7 including G2 WFA. Trainer won last 2 Adelaide Cups.
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Punting tip:
Keep detailed betting records and review them from time to time. Be brutally honest. Identify what types of bets are unprofitable and stop betting on them. Identify your strengths and weaknesses. There is always a gap between expectation and reality. Live in reality.
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Derby rated prices:
$2.80 Zardozi
$4.00 Riff Rocket
$8.00 Wymark
$9.00 Ceolwulf
Zardozi won the VRC Oaks on the 5 day backup. She's on a 7 day backup into the Derby. In the Wakeful she was good but not fantastic, and can say the same about the Vinery. Expect her to go to another
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Inglis Sires rated prices:
$3.60 Lady Of Camelot
$6.00 Coleman
$7.00 Storm Boy
$8.00 Traffic Warden
$10 Anode
Not sure I want to be betting on this race but here are my thoughts anyway. LOC good winner of Slipper. Like many in this race, untried on heavy and at distance, but if
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@davepband
Yes it is weird. That first day there was enormous rainfall and many thought the meeting would be called off, yet raced no worse than soft 7. Yet this time, with nowhere near the amount of rain on Friday/Saturday the track could not cope. I'm sure there is a logical explanation.
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Cox Plate
$3.10 Anamoe
$4.80 Zaaki
$8.80 I'm Thunderstruck
$12 El Bodegon
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Apparently a lot of people think Broadsiding is the best 2yo this season. I had a look at my ratings and my top 10 are:
937 Bustling
935 Coleman
934 Lady Of Camelot
933 Storm Boy
931 Hayasugi
929 Eneeza
929 Straight Charge
929 Switzerland
928 Growing Empire
926 Broadsiding
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Couple of value (but short) horses which should be very hard to beat at Rosehill. Lindermann's pretty short at $1.90, but I think that might be a good price by the time they jump. Looks a lovely race for him. Gelded prior to this prep, is 2/2 at Rosehill, career best rating over
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Derby market:
$2.50 Sharp N Smart
$6.30 Mr Maestro
$8.50 Berkeley Square
$17 Muramasa
$23 Pericles
SnS rapidly improving ratings and bred to run the trip. Last start won Champion Stakes G1, beating Caulfield Guineas runner up, after sitting 3-wide no cover the trip.
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@RacenetTweets
I think this poll says it all. Those critical of Williams are probably those who tend to bag jockeys whenever their horse loses.
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I only own a hoof, but so excited about Belthil winning at first Aussie start. All credit to Andrew Bobbin and Grampians Racing. This is my second horse with Andrew. He's done really well with the first (Yulong Patrol). Trainer going places. Belthil too hopefully.🙏
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Australasian Oaks rated prices:
$3.00 Coco Sun
$5.50 Pulchritudinous
$6.00 Wings Of Song
Coco Sun wasn't at her best last prep, but still managed a 5th in the VRC Oaks so we know she gets 2000m. If you ignore last prep entirely, then she's 4/4. Her two wins this prep have been
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All Switzerland needs is a fair track and luck in running and I think he will be winning the Golden Slipper. His price has already firmed a little from a peak of $5.00 and I won't be surprised if he continues to firm if the pros like him too. Storm Boy has lots of hype due to his
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I'm keen on Kings Will Dream tomorrow in the Caulfield Cup. Been trained for this race all along. Weir's horses often improve 3 lengths when set for feature staying races. Expect heavy betting support tomorrow and to run very well.
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Affaire A Suivre did it the hard way but too good for them. Nice price too!
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Rosehill race 9 rated prices:
$1.80 City Of Lights
$9.00 Gan Teorainn
$12 Premise
Winx's little half sister is bred to stay. I expect we will see the best of her over 2000m+ but the 1800m of Saturday's event should be okay. Won over the distance last start when drawing away
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The simple answer is Scarlet Oak was $3.50 last start and Mare Of Mt Buller was $31. This is fundamental to how a horse is priced at its next start. So if you were wondering that maybe the bookies knew something you didn't, then rest assured they do not. It's purely their last
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According to BetWatch, Sportsbet had Autumn Angel at $1.80 this morning. Out to $2.50 now. Playing games? If you like AA I'd keep your powder dry. If the rain comes as predicted she's got none.
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Having a rare Sydney bet on Ausbred Flirt. Taken $3.10 as I expect will be heavily backed at some point. Should sit on pace, or lead if they want to. Promising 3yo.
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@Page1991Adam
@AussieBenC
Never missed a place in 10 starts. Improved every start in first prep. Won G3 by 4.5, a G2 by 3.8, then started $1.30 fav in NZ Derby but didn't run the trip. This prep she placed first up at G1, then won G1 by 3.8. Gee she's hard to fault. May be best horse in NZ.
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Magic Time in M8 is my best bet for Saturday. Rated highly winning first up last prep. Been trialing nicely. $7.00 is great odds. Will start shorter and should blow them away late.
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Keen on Super Extreme in the Highway. Dropping back to 1200m, which will put some off, but I actually think he might be better at 1200m.
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Am I the only form analyst who doesn't rate horses on time? Has the world truly gone mad?
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Very keen on Pounding tomorrow. I've rated him a $2.00 chance so very happy to take $8.00+. I don't think punters appreciate how much this horse has improved in recent starts.
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Not a fan of dual acceptors. Makes it hard to bet into some Rosehill markets not knowing what's running in what.
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Grinzinger Star and Plein Ciel my best for tomorrow, but quite a few other nice value bets.
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Updated market:
$2.50 Coco Sun
$6.50 Pulchritudinous
$8.00 Wings Of Song
$8.00 Vibrant Sun
Not a huge change to my earlier market. Just thinking Coco Sun is going to be very hard to beat and a great bet. I underrated Vibrant Sun in my first market. It profiles like a filly that
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@HorseMiller3
@HorseMillerSPNG
For the sake of transparency and advertising I would have thought it would be good for your tipping service. However I ask only out of curiosity.
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Micro is a great bet tomorrow in race 6. Rates very well as a G2 placegetter near minimum in a BM 70. Ran well first up, then no luck at all 2nd up. Ready to win 3rd up. Kah on board. A grade bet. Rated $2.20. $8.00 was available for ages. In to $6.50 now but still big overs.
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@TRBHorseRacing
@M_Gannon_
Could not agree more. Very trendy these days to quote a trainer or jockey's high SR or POT from last 50 runs/rides. I won't go so far as to say these stats are 100% meaningless (perhaps 90%), as perhaps jockeys that are winning do ride a bit better with winning confidence,
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@dshizzl79
@MChandlerMather
Yes freezing rents and other imposts on landlords will cause some to sell and the homes being bought privately. This reduces the number of properties for rent making it even harder for renters.
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@theeachwayplay
I agree Cascadian will be in the finish. He's a very good horse and this race is ideal for him. Proof of this is that he won the race last year. However this year it's a good deal stronger than when he beat Numerian and Pounding.
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Only one bet for me this weekend. Miss Middle Park race 5 Mornington. Take the $5.00 and get in the queue!
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@Simon_Miller_
@BBakerRacing
Just wanted to say that on my stats you are the best trainer in the country when taking into account the breeding of the yearlings you start with and the performance you get out of them. Any criticism of you as a trainer is ridiculous. This mare could not be in better hands.
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VRC Oaks
$3.10 Zennzella
$6.90 Pavitra
$9.40 Foxy Cleopatra
$13+ others
Zennzella beat Pavitra home in the Wakeful. I think these two can improve as much as anything else out of that race. Fav She's Extreme makes the value as unlikely to run a strong 2500m.
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Couple of Futures bets for next Saturday:
Sharp N Smart $4.80 - should start fave
La Crique $3.50 - very good Kiwi
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@TRBHorseRacing
@Page1991Adam
Dan you are being too kind. While you might be right about poor communication, the core issue is the idea was just plain dumb, and doesn't survive any sensible scrutiny. It raises the question whether RV has any common sense at all. Don't get me started on whipless racing!
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Looking ahead to the Cup, I've just backed Smokin Romans $31 and Realm Of Flowers $26. They are clearly my top two picks and huge value.
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Slipper profiles. Which horse profiles best?
Since the first Magic Millions 2yo was run in 1987, I could only find three winners of that race that also won the Golden Slipper (Capitalist, Phelan Ready and Dance Hero). Tough ask for a 2yo to peak in January and again in March.
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I think Pericles is a great bet on Saturday. I think he's the horse to beat and will start favourite. $8.00 is a steal.
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Celestial Legend was impressive in the Hobartville. The step up to 1600m should suit. Love Bridge as trainer. This is a strong field but I expect CL to be too good.
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@TCtentb
@R1CHARDFREEDMAN
Yes, the system only works if the media holds the pollies to account. However the media these days is so biased. Sadly, seeking the truth no longer matters to them. Instead they think their role is to promote the side of politics they relate with, and denigrate their opponents.
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@BenAsgariRacing
Disgusting. The industry needs to review how a track has played after each meeting and make clubs/curators accountable in some way. Okay, occasional track bias is unavoidable, but it happens way too often. I'm not sure how you penalise a club but something has to be done. Perhaps
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Be on the lookout for track bias tomorrow. Watch those early races like a hawk. What bias, if any, do you expect? I once heard that with the Kenso track on the inside of it, the inside lane (course proper) drains better after heavy rain when the rail is true. Not necessairly
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@_sharklover
It's sad isn't it. Unfortunately punters don't have a voice and are getting fleeced by greedy governments and racing administrators. A lot of break-even punters will find themselves losing and leave the great game. There was some sort of parliamentary enquiry not that long ago
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Champion's Mile market:
$2.20 Private Eye
$11 My Oberon
$13 Cascadian
$13 Alligator Blood
PI is flying this prep. Hoping he can hold it together for one more run on the backup. Can see reason why not.
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I think Post Impressionist is a lay in race 2 Rosehill. He's very popular with punters due to the trainer's success in Sydney, but I just don't think his UK ratings are good enough for this. I'm very keen on Almania. Rated well when winning Canberra Cup last start. His best
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@DustinSpriggs4
A lot is riding on Storm Boy with his stallion aspirations and purchase price. I'm thinking the stable will be keen for him to receive an uncontested lead. Switzerland is drawn to give McDonald options depending on how the track is playing. May get shuffled back to midfield and
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Revised market Oaks
$3.40 Zennzella
$5.90 Renaissance Woman
$7.60 Pavitra
$11 Foxy Cleopatra
Changed my price for RW. Thinking now she's a dry tracker and that's why plain in Champion Stakes.
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I'd love them all to win like that. Did some work in the run and still won like Phar Lap!
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Re: Sydney race 2 rated prices (revised):
Hope you got on the $4.00 Yiska last night when I posted or early this morning. Unfortunately he shortened right up around 9.30am today. Have to admit to being a bit too aggressive in my original market. I have an ammended market below.
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@Mikeneverwrong
I don't like bookies any more than you, but if they were going to do that then wouldn't they be making Zardozi shorter, not Riff Rocket?
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The big question regarding the Australian Cup is will Pride Of Jenni run the trip? What do you think?
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Caulfield race 6 rated prices:
$2.50 Moveforlex
$5.00 Albanian I Am
$16 Quantum Cat
Moveforlex is bred to be a 2000m+ horse and his form supports this. That he was able to win last start at 1600m (off a 9 week break) was a good sign he's going better than ever. You'd think he'd
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Champion's Sprint market
$2.80 Bella Nipotina
$3.00 Nature Strip
$11 Giga Kick
I know the consensus view is that BN put in a blinder last start and will regress. I don't agree with this. She just improved off her huge run against the bias the run before. She can improve again.
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She's run over the trip once before on 15/04/23. In that race she went much too fast and folded up over the last 300m to be beaten 8.2 lengths. Significantly the placegetters all came from well back, and the horses that settled in the first 6 in running all finished at the tail
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@AussieBenC
Yes. Maher has found the key to this mare. She was very good late last prep, but she's even better this prep.
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@AussieBenC
I considered backing Attractable but I'm not sure he runs a strong 1600m. Pretty sure he found the 1800m too far last time. I may yet have something on him at $10. My second pick would be King Of The Castle, but the race doesn't end there by any means.
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Keen on Foxy Frida in the Ballarat Cup, as long as the track is no worse than a 6. I have her a $3.40 chance and huge overs. I think she jarred up on the good 3 last time, and she doesn't like wet tracks. Goldilocks!
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Fred Best Classic rated prices:
$1.95 Schwarz
$6.50 Stefi Magnetica
Write your own ticket the rest.
Schwarz rated highly last start. Has tactical speed and nice barrier so should get a good run. Unproven in wet but bred to handle it and looked good in a couple of trials, one
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@PeterLawrence18
100%. A lot of rubbish has been posted about this case. The barrier attendant did nothing wrong. It was the horse getting its head down and the attendant was simply helping. The stewards could not declare it a non-starter even if they wanted to, due to the rules. In this case the
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Updated rated prices:
$2.20 Seonee
$7.00 Lady Jones
$12 Legacies
There is a school of thought that Seonee is a better horse at 1400m than 1600m. On Get On SA one of the tipsters made her the lay of the day for that reason. I see today Sportsbet seems keen to take her on too. I
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Flemington race 7 rated prices:
$3.10 Le Parrain
$9.00 Right To Party
$10 Caronados
I have Le Parrain clearly on top purely on his last start rating at Bendigo. If he can reproduce that rating he should be very hard to beat. Barrier 4 is not ideal though.
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@MCruicky
Yes Derby day is usually a great meeting and no exception this year. Big fields, lots of well performed horses. I'm looking forward to it.
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@Page1991Adam
Spot on. This is just a stupid idea. I won't even bother to explain why. I mean really? A) You think this will even work? B) You think this will attract racing/punting fans to the sport? Am I surprised? No. After all this is the mob who think it's a good idea to ban whips.
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