Dustin Spriggs
@DustinSpriggs4
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🐎 Informing punters with data driven speed maps essential for form guides. dustinspriggs @outlook .com DM or email for full meetings.
Newcastle, New South Wales
Joined February 2022
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Pinned Tweet
Contrary to last week, no better feeling seeing your team get a big win on a Thursday and enjoy watching the rest of the round of footy!
#AFLLionsPies
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@TheBarmyArmy
Bairstow actually holding onto that streaker unlike any of the catches that have gone his way
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#TheEverest
form.
Randwick Race 7 1200m
Early Speed:
It’s been well publicised that the lack of on-speed runners in this year’s Everest shapes to present a moderate race tempo.
Overpass draws to find the rail with ease and will lead
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Kensington has become my favourite track to punt at over the last 6 months.
If you can find horses capable of settling in the first 3 that are fit and in form they are usually hard to beat.
Below is a summary of winning settling positions over the last 5 runnings of each
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@piersmorgan
@PiersUncensored
Time to move on. It wasn’t the wicket of a fat keeper which has divided opinions that cost England the game. Poms need to focus on putting on a performance in two days that can keep them in series.
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@BigOtrivia
Crap take. This is more about the Windies. The Aussies have taken just about everything before them the last 15 months. Series against Pak, SA and Windies last year, won Test Championship, ODI World Cup and retained the Ashes. They looked like a tired batting line up this series
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This time last week my best friend had a freak accident at the dog park.
My mrs threw a stick and when Marlee landed on the ground with it, the stick pierced the roof of her mouth, luckily missed many vital glands and lodged just above her shoulder.
After a stressful week
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Some interesting stats I’ve compiled from video analysis over time.
Disclaimer is that these should all be taken with a grain of salt and it’s imperative that every race is taken on it’s own merits.
Below is a list of where the winning horse has settled after 400m in the last
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Horse to Follow
Hoo Ya Mal- G2 Hill Stakes
The Waterhouse/Bott UK import raced up on the speed for the first time in Australia and looked the winner when kicking clear at the 300m.
A trademark late finish from Montefilia resulted in Ho Ya Mal finishing 0.5L away 2nd. The 2
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I’ve taken Britt out for an away game in the kitchen. Even better when she finds out she won’t have to wash up.
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Horse to Follow-
Airman
The lightly raced Hawkes 4yo couldn’t of been more impressive stepping up to G3 WFA level in the Sydney Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.
It was a horror show from the beginning landing midfield with 5 horses inside him. Bowman then pressed forward to
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Today I took time to record some data from my speed maps beginning September through to the weekend just been.
People who follow will pick up on the blue runner concept.
Correct race leader mapped: 32/52 races (62%)
Blue runners win: 36/52 races (69%)
These stats do not
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The Kensington track has definitely shown particular bias towards on-speed horses the last few months.
The last 50 races conducted on the Randwick inner have resulted in 64% of winners settling or finding themselves 1st-3rd after 400m.
All winning settling positions last 50
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#CoxPlate
form.
Moonee Valley Race 9 2040m
Early Speed:
A very interesting map after the barrier draw throws a few spanners in the works. A few possibilities with what can happen with early speed that will impact race tempo significantly.
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A quick stats update for those that have been following my speed mapping or interested in what I do.
Whilst I don’t aim to be a tipster I do want to use my experience to give punters an accurate speed map that classifies predicted race tempo as slow, moderate or fast.
My
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Day 3. Coming to the end of a long innings. Time to dig in and put some more beers on the board.
#AUSvPAK
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Horse to Follow
Tom Kitten
After an impressive victory in the Fernhill Mile as a 2yo, Tom Kitten was always going to be one to look out for in his first 3yo prep, particularly once he got out to 1600-2000m.
His performance on Saturday didn’t disappoint. He got the gun run
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#MelbourneCup
form.
Flemington Race 7 3200m
Early Speed:
Melbourne Cups a generally run along at a strong tempo by 3200m standards with such large fields and high stakes.
This year there seems to be fewer stayers that possess gate
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@dc_mma
DC spot on here. You see it time and time again. Talented athletes where it means more to the parents than the kid never advance in their sport. Once they get into late teens it’s human nature to start making decisions based on their own needs and to spite their parents.
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Horse to Follow-
General Salute
The Ryan & Alexiou colt sat 3 wide without cover the whole way in the Brian Crowley and was forced to sustain a long run for home.
He was entitled to throw up the white flag at the 200m but still battled right to the line to finish less than a
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Horse to Follow
Without a Fight
The European import stamped himself as a horse to consider for the spring with his dominant victory in the G2 Q22 at Eagle Farm yesterday.
Settling at the rear, the 6yo started a run at the 600m & it was his acceleration at the 300m that was
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Mr B found out carting the field up to a tearaway leader. Maybe a result of unwarranted criticism of previous ride by connections.
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A historic look at Golden Slipper winners over the last 10 years with a specific focus on barrier, settling position and running lane 200m from home.
2023- Shinzo (1) Off Pace/Fence
2022- Fireburn (1) Off Midfield/Fence
2021- Stay Inside (3) Off Pace/2
2020- Farnan (12)
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Run, gym and coffee with the little black mare. Now time to cheer home some winners!
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Horse to Follow
Remarque
Remarque has long been an extremely talented prospect that hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential.
He first came onto the scene with a couple of blistering trials before winning by 2L on debut as a 2yo.
Now a 5yo, he has worked his way to being
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Xmas with my 2 favourite girls 🎄
Wishing everyone a great end to the year and plenty of winners in 2024
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Cannot be stuffed staying up for the next set. Happy New Year everyone! Looking forward to a prosperous 2024!
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For those that have been interested in my work and wondering if it can help inform their punting.
What I provide:
- full meeting speed maps for Sydney tracks.
- race tempo analysis.
- winning settling positions and running lanes of previous meeting at track with rail in same
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A look at the previous 10 winning settling positions at each Rosehill distance ahead of tomorrow’s midweek meeting.
We can see what a big advantage it is to be on-speed over 1100m and 1200m races and how the advantage swings to be further back over longer trips.
1100m-
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#CaulfieldCup
form.
Caulfield Race 9 2400m
Early Speed:
Hoo Ya Mal and Spirit Ridge should roll along from middle gates to control this at a moderate tempo.
Goldman will come across from wide gate to be handy. West Wind Blows maps to
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A massive day at the Farm! 6 bets for 5 wins and a 3rd. +12 units of profit on the day and +30 for January at 49% POT.
Full meeting of Randwick speed maps and tempo analysis to assist those doing their own form as well as full staking plan for those wanting tips ready to be
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#GoldenEagle
form.
Rosehill 1500m
Early Speed:
Golden Mile has the speed to cross from out wide. Rediener and Pericles should kick up from inside draws. Hawaii Five Oh could be more positive over 1400m.
Not too much gate speed on paper
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Horse to Follow-
Commemorative
I was against this massive I Am Invincible filly at Randwick yesterday but am now a big fan after her impressive 2nd behind Kazou at just her 2nd career start.
She came up short in early markets with the benefit of only 52kg but taking on a
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Anamoe’s last Australian career start in Queen Elizabeth tomorrow. Hard to find a horse that has been so successful with G1 wins from 2yo season all the way through.
2yo: G2 Todman & G1 Sires Produce
- eye catching 2nd in Slipper.
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A comparative look at winning settling positions at each of the Sydney tracks from the database I keep. We evaluate this data in every Sydney meeting covered throughout the autumn carnival.
Winning percentages are calculated from last 5 runnings of each distance to ensure fair
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Below is some data around Warwick Farm’s recent winning settling positions drawn from the latest 5 runnings of each distance.
Leader- 27%
Place- 27%
Off Pace- 11%
Midfield- 15%
Off Midfield- 19%
Backmarker- 2%
Warwick Farm’s unique triangle shape with long shoot that only
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A big day for those who subscribe and use my speed maps to find winners.
Blue Runners as Winners- 6/7
Correct Leader Mapped- 4/7
DM for info about full card at Kembla’s Gong meeting this Saturday.
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With no midweek Sydney meeting scheduled this week and the return of regular fixturing on Saturday, I thought it would be a good opportunity to get out some updated information on settling positions of recent winners across all Sydney tracks.
The data below is made up of the
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Horse to Follow
Garza Blanca
The Maher and Eustace 4yo was already on a lot of radar’s before Saturday’s 2nd to Kibou at Randwick on Saturday but the manner in which he was able to hit the line despite travelling 3-wide showed us that he is ready to step up to black type at
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Gate speed analysis to assist with G3
#TheNivision
form.
Rosehill Race 9 1200m
Early Speed:
Fast horses drawn all over here. Queen of the Ball loves to lead. Parisal, Banana Queen and Royal Merchant will all look to cross from wide gate, which will ensure a strong tempo.
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#SilverEagle
form.
Race 8 1300m
Early Speed:
There’s speed horses drawn low, middle and wide, which generally produces strong tempo races.
I like Kibou to kick up and hold lead from inside. Pericles possesses natural gate speed and
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#Metropolitan
form.
Rosehill Race 9 2400m
Early Speed:
I’m expecting them to bowl right along in this year’s Metrop. There are many on-speed runners engaged, a lot of them drawn wide.
Spirit Ridge and Future History will be keen early
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I’ve missed 1 SCG Test in the last 15 years. One of the biggest standing ovations I’ve seen after a long ordinary session. A win for the silent majority.
#AUSvPAK
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@7horseracing
@TheValley
2005 for me. Makybe Diva cantering around a quality field that were all under immense pressure was something else.
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#GoldenRose
form.
Rosehill 1400m
Early Speed:
Not expecting an overly fast tempo here. Butch Cassidy and Moravia look set to switch settling positions from when they met last start in the Run to the Rose. Butch Cassidy likely leads them
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@SENGiddyUp
So this guy is just getting a platform off going back and watching races in slow-mo so he can publicly criticise the guys steering these 500kg beasts?
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My best mate is starting to get her engine back after her major surgery. She broke 25mins for 5km for the first time since this morning. I’m hoping the horses I’m backing today are putting in harder the last sectional.
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Horse to Follow-
Atishu
Atishu produced an eye-catching return at Rosehill.
Settling in the tail pair with Espiona off a hot tempo, she was always entitled to work home well.
A check as she was hitting top gear at the 200m forced McEvoy to come back across heels. It’s
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#GoldenSlipper
form.
Rosehill R8 1200m
Early Speed:
Horses settling in the first 4 have won 10 of the last 10 over Rosehill 1200m. There will be immense pressure like all Slippers so horses settling back shouldn’t be discounted. I would
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A look at Randwick winning settling positions from the last 5 runnings of each distance.
Leader- 17%
Place- 23%
Off Pace- 9%
Midfield- 13%
Off Midfield- 30%
Backmarker- 8%
Key takeaways:
* it’s far less advantageous to be up on-speed compared to other Sydney tracks.
* the
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@lisa44174963
@7AFL
This is the most woke shit I’ve heard today. He’s the best player in the comp. Not all injuries are equal
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Absolute domination from Sydney horses on Derby Day. Can Melbourne get on the board in the last 2 races?
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Great to see the Cox Plate champ salute there. I’ve never seen a neck victory look so convincing. 10/10 ride from J Mac
#RomanticWarrior
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Gate speed analysis to assist with G1
#EpsomHandicap
form.
Randwick 1600m
Early Speed:
It’s always safe to assume a strong tempo in these G1 Randwick Mile Handicaps.
This year it is harder to determine who the leader will be. It possibly could be between the Godolphin
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The Coolmore Classic has always been an intriguing race for me. A big field of fillies and mares under Quality weight conditions with plenty of pressure that often throws up winners that the market misses.
When doing the form this week I had a look at the settling positions and
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Horse to Follow
Vienna Princess
This Waller filly couldn’t have been more impressive winning against older mares at Rosehill.
She settled midfield & when leader Either Oar kicked away off a strong tempo, it looked like nothing was going to catch her.
Vienna Princess
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Horse to Follow
Brayden Star
Brayden Star is a Kiwi entire from the Busuttin & Young yard that had been racing well in Victoria with 1 win and 2 2nds from 3 starts.
The connections openly stated that Saturday’s 1800m Rosehill start was a trial for a potential Four Pillars run
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I believe to be considered good at what you do in this caper you need to show positive results and take your medicine and learn from the strip outs.
This weekend was a horror show going down -8 units. Thankful to still be sitting +21 units of profit for the year.
Looking
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#KingCharlesIIIStakes
form.
Randwick Race 9 1600m
Early Speed:
Golden Mile and Zaaki are the two that look likely to fight it out for the early lead. Rediener and Nugget should take up their usual positions on-speed. I’m expecting this
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You won’t see a better win than what Warmonger just produced.
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An update on results:
After a shaky start to the day, wins to Naval College and Storm Boy evened things back up before Semana’s big win in the MM Cup cleared +6 units profit for the day.
Continuing the good 2024 run that has seen 4 consecutive winning days ranging from +4.8 to
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#PremiereStakes
form.
Randwick Race 7 1200m
Early Speed:
All the gate speed comes from out wide. The lack of speed from low gates should allow these runners to cross. Kote is versatile and I expect him to be positive going off a recent
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Results after a great day at Rosehill. +9 units profit on the day.
2024:
+30 Units of Profit
+19% Profit on Turnover
29% Strike Rate
My service caters to a wide range of punters. Accurate speed maps, tempo analysis and track/distance data for punters wanting to inform
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Results for the day:
+1.4 Units
Got way out in front early but frustrating to give a lot of it back. Partly due to some bad luck but also getting it wrong.
Good to bank another winning day. Using all blue runners jagged both Early and regular Quaddies.
2024:
+30 Units
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Horse to Follow:
Thalassophile
An improving 4yo mare from the Waller yard, Thalassophile got back to the rear in the Lord Mayor’s Cup at Rosehill on Saturday & worked home nicely into 4th. She was 3rd run back from a freshen up & should be peaking next start.
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Some data for settling positions of recent winners at distances for tomorrow’s Kensington card.
As always take each race on its’ merits. I’m keen on some runners settling up on the speed and recent history suggests that’s the place to be.
1000m-
Backmarker, Leader, Place,
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Gate speed analysis to assist with G1
#MoirStakes
form.
Moonee Valley Race 7 1000m
Early Speed:
Expecting Acromantula to roll out in front and Asfoora to speed across to sit outside him.
I believe Rothfire will be more positive tonight from gate 1 and Zoustyle to sit 1
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Gate speed analysis to assist with Randwick form.
Race 2 1400m
Early Speed:
Expecting a fast tempo here with two noted speedsters engaged; Boby Bob and Iknowastar.
Those two will ensure the roll along quickly with Rise of the Masses and Chairman’s List quick enough to
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Horse to Follow:
Quantico
It was a painful watch for those on Quantico in the Ortensia Stakes at Scone on Saturday.
Settled in his usual spot at the rear before attempting to make a run along the rails.
At the 200m he was on the heels of eventual winner Athelric before
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@CutGuyMMA
It’s not the most spectacular but it’s everything behind it. After their previous fight Izzy and his team noticed Poatan’s left hand hung real low when he finished him on the fence. I’m not the biggest Izzy fan but to have the balls to deliberately put himself in the same
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#TurnbullStakes
form.
Flemington Race 8 2000m
Early Speed:
I’m expecting there to be a hot speed in the Turnbull Stakes with Uncle Bryn to be fast away from gate 1. Goldman should find the lead with Smoking Romans using him to get the cart
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Footy’s done for the year
Warmer weather
G1 races are back
Spring on the doorstep
What a time of the year!
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Gate speed analysis to assist with Kensington form.
Race 5 1250m
Early Speed:
Loves Me Likearock possess a ton of gate speed and should lead them here. Capo Strada will likely push forward from the outside gate. Destination, Stromboli and Ka Bling should all be handy.
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Gate speed analysis to assist with G1
#ChampionsMile
form.
DM or email for Flemington and Rosehill fields.
Race 7 1600m
Early Speed:
Pride of Jenni is the obvious leader. It will be interesting to see if they want to go at the usual strong tempo with her on the 1 week
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Excited to be partnering with
@betracing_sport
starting today onwards.
I’ll be assisting by supplying my own speed map and race pattern data to help inform their AI and machine learning to generate race probabilities.
Check out their website below and give Grant a follow on
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Gate speed analysis to assist with G1
#WinxStakes
form.
Randwick Race 8 1400m
Early Speed:
The first G1 of the carnival should be run at a solid clip. Zaaki & Think It Over always begin well & could potentially settle as the lead pair. I’m also expecting Lindermann &
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All 3 Randwick winners have come from those typical 3-5 lanes at the 200m.
Usually on softer surfaces the better going comes wider later in the day and it suits those settling further back.
If lanes 3-5 remain the sweet spot on a Good surface it’ll be tough for those settling
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This is absolutely nuts! 4 hour trip from Newy sitting in Moore Park traffic for an hour only for SCG parking to be exhausted. Finally get in and not a single seat left in members. Standing at the back of the nosebleeds it is!
#BBL13
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The rail will be out +2m the entire at Kensington on Wednesday.
Last time the rail was in this position on a Good surface was 2-8-23. On that day 5/7 winners settled either 1st or 2nd after 400m.
Disclaimer is that 3 of those winners include Raf Attack, Coincide and
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A results update after +6.6 units profit yesterday.
Been a bit up and down the last 2 weeks but still edging forward.
2024:
+30.3 Units Profit
+16% Profit on Turnover
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Hard to make ground on the Heavy at Kembla today. Always wary of a swing at some point later in the day as they begin to overdo it up front.
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Sydney racing returns to Warwick Farm for the first time in 6 week this Wednesday.
Below I take a look at some data from the last 12 months. Specifically settling positions of winners of the last 5 races at each distance on the map below as well as 2100m and 2200m.
Warwick
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@NedsDylan3Votes
Draft still the greatest equalisation tool we have in Aus sport. I don’t blame a young man or the system for him not wanting to move 6 hours from home to perform his job. I’m sure the eagles would rather hear this now than in 12 months. Draft far from dead.
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An update on winning settling position % at Rosehill over the previous 5 runnings at each distance.
Leader: 28%
Place: 22%
Off Pace: 13%
Midfield: 17%
Off Midfield: 11%
Backmarker: 11%
Across all Sydney tracks, the winter months have definitely resulted in improved results for
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Reviewing the G1 Verry Elleegant for a bit of closure. Fangirl’s tendency to flop out of the gates no doubt cost her the race. Similar story to the 2023 Cox Plate.
If she came away fair she should’ve settled ahead of Arapaho and been no worse than 1L off Think It Over at the
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Horse to Follow
Father’s Day
The Galileo 6yo showed at Rosehill on Saturday that he has great staying ability and is one to follow over longer trips
He went straight to the front and controlled the race at more of a moderate tempo compared to his last start win at Kensington.
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@Golden_Paddy_1
Raise you Ozzmosis, Spacewalk, Queen of the Ball, Kalapour, Amazonian Lass and Riff Rocket. Surely Melbourne get on the board in the last 2 races.
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#MightandPower
form.
Caulfield Race 7 2000m
Early Speed:
A very interesting tactical affair for the G1 Might and Power. I can see Alligator Blood holding the lead from gate 3. Alenquer led Alligator Blood last start but the blinkers come
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Proud and privileged to have been voted Black Diamond Cup Coach of the Year by my fellow coaches and also to receive the HCC League Coach of the Year.
This is largely thanks to the years of hard work from a great young playing group that saw us play Cup finals for the first
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Gate speed analysis to assist with
#HeritageStakes
form.
Rosehill Race 4 1100m
Early Speed:
Expecting a good go for the lead with on-speed always being the spot to be at Rosehill over 1100m. Royal Tribute will be keen to head them up, which should allow Ozzmosis to get the
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Horse to Follow-
Loch Eagle
The outside gate was always going to make things difficult for Loch Eagle stepping up in class. However, the manner in which he dug in despite sitting 3 wide without cover behind a hot tempo against much stronger competition was impressive.
He
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