JZ
@1984JZBJ
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@davidpgoldman
You can condemn Hamas as a whole for the actions of these individuals. But then to be consistent you would have to condemn the IDF as well since individual IDF soldiers have committed similar war crimes in the past.
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@MrFamilyOffice
@TheLawGiraffe
I personally know people who do the minimum at work, but built mini-real estate empires on the side over 10 years. There is lots of ambition, talent, and energy, most employers are just not willing to pay enough for people to devote their best to their employer.
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@BeijingDai
JM underestimates China and overestimates the US. He keeps thinking that the US has a strategic solution to an unrealistic ambition problem.
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@illbill1000
@not_insayne
@sentdefender
Wagner didn't have air cover, not exactly a peer opponent. If the situation were flipped, VKS would have destroyed US ground troops without air cover as well.
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@Kanthan2030
I think most Americans realize this, the disconnect is most Americans still think they live in a democracy because they think their participation in ritual elections defines democracy.
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@BeijingDai
JM still thinks that the US is a peer of China, and that a conflict between China-US will be a peer conflict. China's vastly bigger industrial capacity, and systemic execution superiority means that this view is mistaken.
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@BeijingDai
If China contributed AESA radar tech and Russia contributed their micro-nuclear reactor tech, China + Russia can develop powerful space radar satellites that can provide 24/7 global coverage to detect all ships, aircraft and missiles. It would completely neutralize NATO airpower.
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@fabi_gold
@agelender
Goodwill and a shared sense of justice is far more enduring than temporary military strength.
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@Kanthan2030
This is a major breakthrough that is not sufficiently appreciated. Direct H2 from offshore wind/solar will drop H2 below cost of fossil fuels, and the cost will scale like an industrial process rather than be subject to whims of geography like fossil fuels.
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@fabi_gold
@agelender
There is a misplaced hope that a Zionist Israel can provide shelter for Jews over the long run. No state last forever, what happens when Israel inevitable falls into decline?
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@BeijingDai
The US keeps picking conflicts it can't win because it keeps wanting things that are unrealistic for its actual level of power. It keeps hoping that if it gambled on another conflict, and things turn out well, it would achieve its goals.
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@neokoncerz
@amalieskram
Question is why would individual men care if civilization collapses? The collapse of civilization is not something any individual man can stop, so why care?
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@SophiaSerpentia
@NathanJRobinson
I think the point is not to appease Hamas, but to make Hamas and their ideology no longer represent the majority of Palestinians. A successful Israeli policy would have the Palestinians turn against Hamas.
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@BeijingDai
Imagine what a constellation of 1 MW AESA radar satellites flying 250 km above the earth can do. No stealth aircraft is stealthy from above. NATO aircraft can be ambushed by SAMs guided by satellite datalink instead of ground based radar. They would be immune to NATO SEAD tactics
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@ILoveNYShity
@MyLordBebo
What kept you alive is luck. All those guys who aren't as lucky aren't here to write about how much the Russians suck at war.
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@RE_MarketWatch
I think she means farm temp rather than farmer. You are not becoming a farmer in Canada without at least a million to start with.
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@BeijingDai
Using electron beams to generate light for photolithography is inevitable. Main obstacle is cost. China specializes in making expensive things cheap.
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@Kanthan2030
The Ukraine war is taking place within a larger geopolitical context, which is the increasing antagonism between US and China. Time is on Russia's side here because the US can't afford to be tied down in Ukraine while China builds up in the Pacific.
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@MsSweetSummer
No other ethnicity in the US gets this kind of free pass. Can you imagine a Chinese American getting away with this in the US?
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@BeijingDai
Chinese and Russian SAMs would be able to shoot down US aircraft over the middle of Atlantic/Pacific. It would completely neutralize US global power projection.
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@nikstankovic_
It's not so much money but general prosperity. Money isn't wealth.
The real problem with fossil fuels is not that they are polluting, but that they are not scalable. You can't grow fossil fuel production 8-10% a year, year after year with declining marginal costs.
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@stfditua
@Angelo4justice3
This seems perfect for Russia. A casus belli against Poland and the Baltics without involving direct war with NATO.
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@Kanthan2030
The West cannot pull an Iraq or Libya as long as the war in Ukraine simmers. The greater implication of the Ukraine war is that it provides an umbrella for the rest of the world to pursue a multi-polar agenda without threat of Western military intervention.
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@BeijingDai
Realism has to be built on an understanding of the underlying drivers of hard power.
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@BeijingDai
If Hamas actually possessed weapons capable of killing 500 people with one rocket, and they launched thousands of rockets at Israel during their attack, how is Israel not full of dead bodies considering Iron Dome doesn't have 100% interception?
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@RnaudBertrand
China is entertaining these visits to buy time as well. Advances in Chinese sensor technology negates much of the military value of US forward deployment in the Pacific.
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@ArmchairW
The main benefit of the Russian offensive is that it doesn't have to aim for a specific area. It has many possible axes of advance. Russia doesn't need to take any specific piece of territory, it just needs to attrition the Ukrainians and force them to fight on Russian terms.
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@nykyt0sha
Not only does China mass produce 5th gen fighters, China's 5th gen fighters are better suited for next-gen air combat than US F-22/F-35s. China has 2-seat J-20s for frontline drone command, US is still stuck with single seat manned strike aircraft.
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@BeijingDai
It makes little sense for Vietnam to use Japanese Shinkansen for their HSR network since it will be incompatible with the HSR system in China and Laos. Using Chinese HSR allows for connection to the Chinese network in the future, which would make the HSR much more economical.
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@therealhebrahim
People don't realize how much this damages society. Trust is a major social asset, it reduces frictional costs for every type of social interaction.
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@J3ffMiller
@GadSaad
It is not that the entire society decided to stop having children, it is that the socio-economic system made children unaffordable to most people.
Entertainment and trinkets keep getting cheaper while children keep getting more expensive.
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@gonglei89
@KiwiPMI
@liqian_ren
The US is like a landlord that bet his future on perpetual rent hikes instead of investing in new construction. Unless you can block everyone else from new construction, this strategy is doomed to fail in the long term.
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@zhao_dashuai
India's problem is that they don't have the opportunity to colonize a whole continent like the US. US spent 100 years accumulating capital with cheap resource exports produced by enslaved labor before it managed to industrialize. India doesn't have this opportunity.
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@MrJerryGoode
#2
is the most egregious. The contamination of the Pacific ocean will be irreversible and long lasting. The consequences of this decision will outlast the lifetimes of all the decision makers.
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@ILoveNYShity
@MyLordBebo
I think you will find that most people lack motivation to fight the kind of war that Russia and Ukraine is fighting. In a war of attrition, your motivation really don't matter much. It's a contest of numbers.
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@KiwiPMI
@gonglei89
@liqian_ren
It's not nonsense. If the US had spent the surplus of trading with China on developing next generation tech instead of fighting wars, the whole world would have been better off.
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@Kanthan2030
Christian monks stole the secrets of silk making too. Europe engaged in industrial espionage against China for centuries.
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@mariocavolo
A new R&D engineer fresh out of school working at BYD is making around 400k CNY/year. This is around 130k-200k USD/year in terms of purchasing power.
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@BeijingDai
Total global trade is down, but China is still gaining market share. Basically everyone's exports are down, but China is falling less than others.
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@BeijingDai
India is like the guy who never ships because he dreams too big but works too slow.
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@mariocavolo
High Chinese youth unemployment is due to education system not keeping up with the rapid change in economic structure. Too many vocational schools are not adapting quickly enough to new industries.
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@aravind
@WallStreetSilv
The significance of this move is not the restrictions themselves, but that China is ready and set on decoupling. There is no going back now.
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@__Aava__
@LukeGromen
They can be seized, but it's much more expensive to seize hard assets. You need actual people and machines to run those ports. If those ports run with Chinese management, use Chinese machinery and Chinese software, you might just end up with nothing if you seize them.
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@FinanceLancelot
Why would China need USD in the future? Increasing trade decoupling means China needs less USD over time. It would make sense for China to cash in its USD assets at the top and buy CNY at the best price in 15 years.
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@taviodelucca
@HalfMounTai
Song was paranoid about military power after what happened to the Tang dynasty. China pretty much lost all offensive military potential after the Tang dynasty.
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@EmileAboud1
@Trollstoy88
I think the war in Ukraine have pretty much disproved that US weapons are more effective than Russian weapons. They are more expensive, but not particularly well made. See all the M777 that blew their barrels.
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@geoeconomic10
Families won't be able to buy if rates stay at 5-6%. New build construction is falling off a cliff at current interest rates. A lot of trades people will leave the industry if rates stay this high for several years. This will reduce construction capacity for a generation.
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@Kanthan2030
China will be the first country to have mass adoption of personal VTOL transport because it is the furthest along on the H2 production cost curve.
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@aravind
@WallStreetSilv
It will take years to ramp the industrial supply chain from mining to refining. This will slow down the US in 3rd gen semiconductor development while buying time for China to catch up in other areas of semiconductor tech.
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@RealJCuba
@gdp1985
The minerals themselves are not rare, but the refining process is very difficult, dirty and expensive. China has the most economic and technologically advanced processes for refining RE metals, this won't be easy to replicate.
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@RebeccaYChan
You have to wonder about the intelligence of people who are surprised by the fact that fighting Russia is different from fighting the Taliban or ISIS.
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@BeijingDai
It's not that India doesn't try to copy, the problem is that India copies too slowly. They copy slower than other people innovate and they keep trying to copy the best.
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@BeijingDai
That's surprisingly modest. Somehow even in their dreams they cannot beat Pakistan?
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@Kanthan2030
@jamie_saris
This is pretty much it. US likes to pretend that it can afford to pay 5% interest rates and bring down inflation, when the only way it can afford to pay those rates is by running inflation hot.
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@EInsides
@SabaSmw
@popalorena
This isn't quitting, this is rightfully refusing to participate in a rigged match. Sports without fairness isn't sports.
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@BeijingDai
US will not be able to resupply its bases in the Pacific when China have the capability to detect and sink shipping from so far away. This renders US bases far from continental US useless in a shooting war.
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@shaunrein
I don't think it's the sanctions, but the lack of investment in innovation. A lot American companies got taken over by bean counters that prioritized short term profits over long term survival.
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@GarettJones
@centralkingdom
China is way more productive than Mexico, but your metrics can't capture that.
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@SultanYavar
@RnaudBertrand
@worqas
@GrahamTAllison
India has had better Western market access for longer than China. If this was some magic ingredient, it would have a bigger economy than China by now.
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@JJD_Aqua
@MacaesBruno
You comparing an occupied US vassal state with 1/11th the population to China?
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@narrative_hole
Problem is the conscription. If die hard Ukrainian nationalists want to go fight Russian troops, I don't think anyone has a problem with that. Kidnapping random civilians and using them as cannon fodder is criminal.
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@greyzone513
@MikeCristo8
@GoldTelegraph_
India isn't that important. India doesn't actually export anything that anyone else need.
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@Xenomorph10
@DanCollins2011
China is transitioning to a very R&D heavy economy. If you look at the structure of new hires at BYD, it's a lot of R&D engineers with STEM masters/PhDs. They don't actually need that many front line workers to assemble cars.
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@jia20212021
@BeijingDai
Not GDP, but real economic output. GDP is a monetary proxy.
China's car market alone is bigger than US + EU combined. Same with electricity consumption. Same with housing consumption.
Even China's PPP GDP is smaller than real consumption would suggest.
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@partisan1776
@19hassan49
To the extent that Xi Jinping was able to clean up corruption, he has real power beyond that of his predecessors or any elected official in the West. It took a whole career to accumulate that level of power, it's not something a random guy elected off the streets is going to have
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@simonjlau
@amyhawk_
It's not just about raw economic growth, creating appropriate jobs for college educated workers is much harder than for unskilled labor.
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@BeijingDai
It's hard to violate the patents of others if it takes you more than 20 years to copy them.
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@TShirtnJeans2
@zhao_dashuai
Why is 3 years beyond optimistic? All the components are ready and the prototype is already in testing. 3 years is a conservative estimate. 2024 is the optimistic scenario.
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@MsSweetSummer
I think the ethnic nepotism angle is a very valid point to make. We literally had an US congressman dress up in Israeli army uniform in Congress and publicly proclaim that he stands with Israel recently.
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@Xenomorph10
@DanCollins2011
China's surplus of STEM educated manpower is going to translate to a ton of R&D projects. It's going to be impossible for Western companies to keep up with the pace of Chinese R&D over the long run.
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@AudeIdScire
@GlennLuk
@gonglei89
Taiwan suppressed housing investment on purpose for a long time to free up capital to develop export industries. Taiwan had much worse housing than China at equivalent levels of economic development.
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@SantiagoAuFund
@LynAldenContact
@RichardTCasey
@Kathleen_Tyson_
China has built its own $ system, where it is the hub. All these debtor countries owe $ to China, and China can recycle the $ debt payments within its own system. When the Fed tightens USD liquidity, it effectively gives China a monopoly on supply of USD outside of the US.
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@Kanthan2030
The reason why we don't have flying cars (personal VTOL transport) is because fossil fuels are too expensive and VTOL requires too much energy/unit distance. The key enabling technology of practical flying cars is cheap H2.
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@Occam17668359
@BeijingDai
China has its own version of democracy. Confusing elections with democracy is at the core of what is broken about politics in the West.
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@ILoveNYShity
@MyLordBebo
If you still think your life is important, you shouldn't be fighting in a war of attrition.
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@WokelyCorrect
@WallStreetSilv
That's actually a pretty good idea. Seriously, tanks are so easy to spot and will trigger anti-tank mines. Ukrainians would have better luck attacking on pogo sticks.
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@NuryVittachi
This is basically an EV story. EVs are crushing ICE cars in China, so the ICE factories have no choice but to export. This coincides with BYD's decision to stop all ICE production in early 2022.
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@thinking_panda
In addition to the US, Canada's team was 100% Chinese, Australia was 75% Chinese + 25% Korean.
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@zhao_dashuai
Combat units designed for peer warfare need to be designed around attritionability. Chinese infantry units during the Korean war remained combat effective even after extremely high casualties. This was a key strength.
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@InvestingRob
@Kanthan2030
Not really, just look at how many people bash China while using electronic devices made in China. Given how global supply chains are, you pretty much can't avoid using products made with parts from a whole bunch of countries.
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@Saint_Dici
You should not assume every major stock market crash will have a post-2008 or post-2020 style recovery. The Japanese stock market still haven't recovered to its 1989 highs even now.
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@QuadMCybertruck
@WallStreetSilv
If Russia is spending anything near that inflation would be going wild in Russia, yet it is not.
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@fredriklund80
@vicktop55
An offensive like this has to make major progress within 48 hours or it has failed. The only advantage of the attacker is strategic initiative, the defender has every other advantage.
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@WallStreetSilv
This is an inevitable consequence of the informatics revolution. There will be more and more central planning.
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@The_Blck_Swan
@zhao_dashuai
The point of using stealth fighters to take down AWACS is that those escort fighters won't be able to intercept in time. PL-15 armed J-20 will have fired and bounced before fighter escorts can intercept.
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@ecmc17
@MacaesBruno
US is already copying PRC. Problem with US is not just policy, but execution.
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@G0D_CANDLE
@DanCollins2011
It's unfortunate for India, but between China and India, whoever industrialized first would squeeze profit margins out of manufacturing, and the other one would not be able to accumulate capital via the same path.
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@nikstankovic_
You can grow solar and wind power with declining marginal costs, year after year. This means you can achieve extremely high per capita energy availability with renewables that you cannot with fossil fuels.
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@BeijingDai
Long range AD is limited by the range of ground based radar. It is easy to increase the range of SAM missiles. If SAMs can be guided by satellite radars, you can easily expand SAM radius to 2000 km or more.
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@zhao_dashuai
China is big enough to do multiple social-economic models. Some systems are better for rapid innovation/risk taking, some systems are better for social stability/long term accumulation of know-how, some systems are more resilient to major disasters.
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@BeijingDai
The increase is mostly services. Healthcare, financial services, insurance. Also local government spending. It really sounds like the US is underestimating inflation.
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