TSLATALK
@tslatalk
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@elonmusk
@Carnage4Life
You should own a relative stake in the company if they’ve changed their designation. Also should have a 100M tax bill if was charitable donation.
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$NVDA worth more than $TSLA at 2x the PE with 0.5 the rev growth and negative EPS growth
If $TSLA were to be valued by the market in the same lens, we’d be over $500/share
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I feel like the $TSLA community has forgotten what
@elonmusk
said on the Q2 earnings call.
Optimus production begins in 2 months 🚨
“it's not a humanoid robot that can’t do stuff - you know, the things that a human can do. we are end designing these actuators, designing them
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Why does $TSLA trade at half the multiple of $AMZN with 5x more 23-26 EPS growth?
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Here is Antonio Gracias - Elon long time friend and investor of many of his ventures - confirming what I alluded to in the tweet below.
Must watch!
$TSLA
@elonmusk
V12.3 is driving at the level of a 5 ⭐️ Uber driver and completing 90% of trips.
Is this level of competence in driving portable to the bot to perform tasks at a professional level with ~90% success?
The reason I’m asking is, regulatory challenges and gov intervention will
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Operating Income: $TSLA vs. $AAPL
What took Apple 10 years to do, Tesla will do in 3 years w/ vehicles sales alone*. At what point does the market wake up to the production capacity
@Tesla
has built/is building?
Either Tesla goes to 75PE (3x AAPL) or Apple returns back to 10PE
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@heydave7
@TeslaPodcast
Both of you guys were promised an interview with
@elonmusk
on an earnings call years ago… time to cash in on that favor as a final sign off for your service!
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Can someone explain why $AMZN is worth more than $TSLA?
$AMZN Guidance: 4.3B GAAP operating income in Q3
$TSLA will Print 4.4B+ GAAP O.I in Q3
Only difference is $TSLA growing revs 50%+ YoY Vs. $AMZN 7% YoY
$TSLA is Stronger AND Faster!!
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@garyblack00
WS has *half* of the purple line in their DCF models out to 2030.
If apple was modeled correctly & you applied a DCF to it with 20% risk adjustment to YR2001, the share price should have been $20 - it was 0.20¢
WS/the market was off by 100x
They are doing the same with $TSLA
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$TSLA market cap - 380B
Net income 2022: 13B
$AMZN market cap 2016 - 380B
Net income 2016: 2.4B
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@ylecun
@elonmusk
A 17-year-old, having lived for that duration, has absorbed 6.21 x 10^15 bytes of data, shaping their understanding of the world.
This extensive data collection over time has contributed to their general knowledge/cognitive development which allows learning experiences such as
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@ylecun
@jeremymstamper
@elonmusk
@bneiluj
@how_many_roads_
Looks fairly “published” to me… then again what do I know
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@WholeMarsBlog
The data is saying 15M vehicles are sold in the USA for $48,000 without tax credits. This affordability argument in light of that makes no sense.
People aren’t buying due to:
Lack of awareness
Objections
Bad information
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@SawyerMerritt
What would be more efficient? Wireless charging pads or an Optimus stationed at each supercharger location ready to plug in/clean/service the cars.
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@WhatsupFranks
@elonmusk
Terrible idea
Expensive to implement
Adds weight
Regeneration gains would be minimal
Makes suspension harsh
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@stevenmarkryan
20M cars a year
1.5T revenue
Cumulative fleet of 67M cars
500B earnings x 75 PE
35k per share
Growing 30% a year 2030 onwards
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@WholeMarsBlog
Tesla Investor Day 2023
Vehicle design ✅
Power train ✅
FSD ✅
Optimus ✅
Charging ✅
Supply chain ✅
Manufacturing ✅
Energy ✅
Financials ✅
What’s missing?
MARKETING AND ADVERTISING ❌
BRANDING ❌
SALES ❌
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE ❌
$TSLA
@elonmusk
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@LimitingThe
Here’s my interpretation of COGS.
If Tesla targets a 30% Gross margin before software upgrades it suggests 65K for Dual motor and ~80k for tri motor.
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Q2 23’ EPS estimate - Non GAAP $1.09
WS $0.85
-10k+Model S/X deliveries over Q1 400M+
-COGS ⬇️ due to factory utilization ⬆️
-Commodities falling
-shipping prices stabilizing
-Energy gross margin growth
-IRA credits ⬆️
-OPEX flat
$TSLA
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@ShrimpTeslaLong
Wall Street is fundamentally about shifting money from clients to themselves through fees
Investment methods are intentionally complex and jargon-filled
The focus isn't on turning small amounts into big ones, but rather large amounts into slightly larger ones
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@WholeMarsBlog
@elonmusk
Is this the actual email??? Media spun it to be much worse than it was.
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@vkhosla
Without Elon’s initial funding, OpenAI's rise to its current status would have been inconceivable.
If the present developments were foreseeable, it's evident that this initial funding would not have been offered. The original intentions behind the funding have not been honored.
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@GerberKawasaki
Why do you say things without data to back up the things you say?
87% of ride hail rides are <2 people
So no… this would not be a huge error
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@greggertruck
@woodhaus2
please bring this silhouette back, whatever’s going on in the photo above is way different
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@elonmusk
@MichaelDell
When do you forecast the constraint to be irrelevant to progress?
Is this still on course?
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@jhall
@elonmusk
@garyblack00
@MartinViecha
“Tesla spends more on advertising than
@elonmusk
paid in taxes in 2018!” - Elizabeth Warren probably
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I don’t think people realize but the Model Y LR has a gross margin of ~45% in the USA
If they offer a $7500 incentive to cover for IRA this brings the margin down to ~38%
$TSLA
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@WholeMarsBlog
Scale matters for event frequency.
Fleet size
Waymo 1000 vs. Tesla 1,000,000
1000x difference (today)
What takes Waymo a whole year to see Tesla sees 3 times a day.
There is no way to bridge this unassailable fly wheel effect without a massive fleet.
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Here’s what Chat GPT4 conjured up for Megapack Margins
Battery cells: $400k
Modules & packs: $60k
Power electronics: $75k
Thermal management: $30k
Control systems: $15k
Enclosure & structural: $45k
Installation & transport: $30k
Labor: $50k
ASP:$2.4M
Gross margin: ~70.63%
$TSLA
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@farzyness
I feel like Tesla should do a world vision themed commercial about this:
“Every day, thousands will walk into dealerships and choose a Toyota Camry, spending $72 more per month, unaware that a smarter, cleaner alternative is within reach.”
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@MarketRebels
FUD!!! Tesla prioritizes exports before local deliveries, nothing in the article says anything about chip shortages. Shanghai running full steam
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@elonmusk
@_SFTahoe
@tslamoon1
@WholeMarsBlog
5T market cap
250B stock compensation
$TSLA board - make it happen
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@robertlipe
@elonmusk
Some guy on the internet: I wouldn’t put any faith in
@elonmusk
😂😂😂
To quote
@larryellison
“who are you?!”
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Self Proclaimed finance Tik Tok- er was ranting about her experience on buying a $33,000 Honda from a dealership (10M views) - so I DM’d asking if she had considered a Tesla.
People are buying HONDA’s over TESLA’s
Still think we don’t need advertising?
@elonmusk
$TSLA
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@elonmusk
@anothercohen
People don’t want to hear what you’re saying and side with the employee due to more in common.
90%+ of people are employees, why would they see it your way?
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How I visualize the upcoming catalysts for $TSLA, in terms of likelihood to happen in the months ahead…
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@jasondebolt
When Optimus is building Optimus
It’s over
And looks like that day could arrive within the next year.
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According to my model, $TSLA is trading at a forward PE of ~21.
According to analysts it’s trading at a forward PE of 42
Either I’m wrong and they’re right, but I don’t think I’m wrong…
@garyblack00
@teslaeconomist
@TSLAFanMtl
@TeslaPodcast
@MatchasmMatt
@ICannot_Enough
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0-80% charge = 264 miles of range
⚡️Cost $22
23 minutes
0-264 miles of fuel
⛽️ cost $63 (29MPG-$7/Gal)
5 minutes
$41 saved but 18 extra minutes wasted puts your time at $136/hour.
If you get paid >$136/hr you have every right to complain about supercharging time… $TSLA
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@zerohedge
1500 human labelers are amplified by auto labelling to the tune of 100-1000x
Sad as it is, there is no reason to keep brilliant people doing useless jobs.
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@PierrePoilievre
How the stat is “nearly half” is fucking insane.
Parents have bought into this nonsense more than I thought.
If you medically alter a child’s physiology before they’re allowed to have a beer, get a tattoo, or drive a car - you should be jailed.
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@garyblack00
Investing in $TSLA shouldn't be about the EV sales, which have limited prospects and declining margins like any hardware business.
The Gross margin fantasy WS has for hardware gets eroded over time.
The real/only opportunity lies in the software.
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Berlin implementing Structural pack by end of year would imply that $TSLA is going to make packs in the USA and ship them to Europe for Model Y while receiving $45/KWH and ramping up Berlin production until they can make their own.
@ValueAnalyst1
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Perhaps, and I’m just spit balling here, $TSLA is down 60% YTD because someone flooded the market with 40 BILLION dollars worth of sales of their stock and has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company.
I know, I might be crazy, but just a thought!
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How I see the next 8 quarters playing out for Tesla. The question is: How low of a PE ratio will the market allow?
In my opinion we should NEVER see less than 150 for a company:
-Rev 50%+ YoY
-Massive TAM
-Approaching AAPL margins
-SAAS upside
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@ValueAnalyst1
Important to understand
@Tesla
demand within the context of the auto market. Legacy auto is shrinking while trying to stay afloat. Meanwhile tesla is able to keep margins and the company profitable. If at any point tesla has to lower prices, they take more market share, ICE dies.
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V12.3 is driving at the level of a 5 ⭐️ Uber driver and completing 90% of trips.
Is this level of competence in driving portable to the bot to perform tasks at a professional level with ~90% success?
The reason I’m asking is, regulatory challenges and gov intervention will
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$TSLA during a recession ���️
-Massive ASP decline
-Moderate Growth QoQ
-Bigger focus on energy storage (Quasi ♾️ demand)
-COGS reduction due to 🏭 utilization
-ZEV credits 1B
-IRA credits 2.6B (Conservative)
12% average tax rate I get to $6.42 EPS
66% EPS growth YoY😐
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Reminder
@elonmusk
@KENEMONICS
You're right. Politics is a no-win situation. Somebody is going to hate what you say no matter what that is.
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Everyone who owns a Model Y, please write a review and inform potential buyers of how you’re liking your car.
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@OraGordon
@elektrotimmy
@elonmusk
@Tesla
@tesla_europe
@MartinViecha
@aelluswamy
Hi Ora, batteries get recycled after 20 years of usage in the vehicle.
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@WholeMarsBlog
@elonmusk
Is this chart not very wrong? What gas car can you fill up for $14???
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@TSLAFanMtl
They’re going to offer 0% financing
Same net effect with hopefully a better psychological “call to action” from consumers.
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@SawyerMerritt
@ByeonChansoo
They are literally called Internal COMBUSTION engine - vehicles 🔥💥
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It has been 3.5 months since AI day 2. In 9 months tesla went from an off the shelf parts prototype to custom built in house actuator/parts prototype.
In the meantime they’ve hired 100’s of new highly skilled engineers.
How much progress has been made since? $TSLA
@elonmusk
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@MarketRebels
FUD!!! Tesla prioritizes exports before local deliveries, nothing in the article says anything about chip shortages. Shanghai running full steam
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$TSLA with $16 22’ EPS has a forward PE of 51x
$AMZN with $59 22’ EPS has a forward PE of 47x
Tesla is growing revenue 50%+ for the next 5 years
Amazon is growing revenue 10-15% for the next 5 years
How can they be valued anywhere near one another?
@garyblack00
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@WholeMarsBlog
@elonmusk
Risk of osborning the whole product line… better to keep it tight lipped, even better to nerf the vehicles via software
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If the earnings call is anything like that Twitter spaces, hold on for dear life $TSLA
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To add even more insult to injury -
@Tesla
are now below or at par to the ASP of a new vehicle *BEFORE* the $7500 tax credit and *BEFORE* fuel savings amongst other pros.
Consumer surplus like this is often bid up by the customer or demand is robust.
Something is wrong. $TSLA
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