Tom Lubbock
@tmlbk
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Opinion Research, Insight and Strategy | Co-founder @JLPartnersPolls | #rstats | #tidymodels | #dataviz | via @UniofOxford
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Joined March 2007
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Just spoke to
@BBCPM
about how the polling sits as the PM flies back into the country. What is really interesting is that there are still backbenchers and seasoned journalists who have yet to grasp how dire some of the Prime Minister's numbers still are with the public
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*Checks notes* Daily Mail had -350 as "Disaster"
Tory losses are now far exceeding the mainstream projections made beforehand. Steve Fisher had -280, Ben Walker -200. Tories now on -467.
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However you cut it these numbers on running the economy are disastrous for the government. Here are the ratings *just for pensioners* (Over 65s)
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NEW⏰: Labour are actually ahead of the Conservatives *even* with GB News viewers
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Having done hours and hours of focus groups alongside our poll I would say the problem for Starmer is that being boring means people don’t know what he stands for. Boring in itself - not so bad
NEW
@JLPartnersPolls
in today’s
@thesun
We asked a nationally representative sample of 2,000 people what they think about Keir Starmer.
Of all responses, 50% were negative, 24% neutral, 26% positive. The words most commonly used are below.
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Which country (outside Ukraine) has provided the best response to Russia’s invasion? We polled Ukrainians for
@MunSecConf
and the UK comes out top
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Growing evidence that this is Labour’s ‘boiled frog’ election (thread). Things have got worse on several fronts…..
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The situation for Conservatives in the Red Wall may well be even worse than our polling suggests. Half of the fieldwork for the poll took place before the apology to the Queen and the latest revelations
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Can’t let tonight’s vote go by without revisiting the words a representative sample of the public used to describe Boris Johnson back in April - by
@JLPartnersPolls
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Exactly one year to the day since the last time the Conservatives led in an opinion poll
There have been 366 national polls since and Labour have led in *every single one*
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (-)
LAB: 36% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-)
via
@RedfieldWilton
, 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ 29 Nov
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For the full analysis of todays
@JLPartnersPolls
x
@RestIsPolitics
polling here is today's fascinating podcast discussion. Also going out on Wednesdays at 11pm on
@Channel4News
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Extraordinary polling numbers from the last 24 hours 👇
🚨
@RedfieldWilton
just 9% of the public approve of the job Liz Truss is doing
🚨
@JLPartnersPolls
just 16% of *Conservative Party Members* think Liz Truss is doing Well as PM
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‘We’ll relaunch again. What’s the big offer to the voters? - trolling”
New: Boris Johnson wants to lead Britain into the "mid-2030s"
Speaking in Kigali, he said: "At the moment I am thinking actively about the third term and what could happen then. But I will review that when I get to it.”
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This is a proper cornflake spitter-outa
NEW in
@yorkshirepost
:
@JLPartnersPolls
of Selby by-election for
@38degrees
💥 Labour set to win by 12 points
💥 Lab 41% (+16), Con 29% (-31)
💥 1 in 4 still undecided
💥
@tmlbk
: “if the results are replicated it would be the 2nd largest swing in a Con-Lab by-election”
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We've launched our voting intention tracker for the UK General Election!
The Conservatives position is barely improved when we apply a Don't Know model and take into account turnout. The net effect is to reduce the Labour lead by only 3 points.
NEW: The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners Westminster voting intention poll - first of 2024
*Labour leads by 18 points*
Labour: 42%
Conservatives: 24%
Reform UK: 13%
Lib Dems: 10%
Green: 5%
Other: 6%
Tables and method:
Podcast:
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Great chart from this
@drjennings
@SkyNews
piece showing how marginal the two seats with by-elections tomorrow are:
Wakefield – 48th most marginal for Conservatives
Tiverton – 293rd most marginal for Conservatives
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Here are some of the numbers I mentioned. Ipsos 'fit to govern' ratings that will be a worry to both parties, but honestly look at the state of that Conservative line
New:
@IpsosUK
Political Monitor data: It hasn't been often in the last 10 years that Lab have been ahead of Cons as being perceived as 'fit to govern' but now is one of those times, though neither party have a majority who think they are.
#faithinpolitics
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What is really striking is that the Government had lost the benefit of the doubt on the economy well before the Mini Budget. It was a powderkeg left by Boris Johnson waiting to go off. Kwasi Kwarteng just lit the fuse
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If you are scratching your head about the theory behind a July 4th election this is what I said to
@lizzzburden
@bloomberg
in October after those huge by-election wins for Labour
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Wow only ONE club in the top 4 divisions of English football will play home games this season in a Conservative held seat – Bromley
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Nigel Farage has now made this election a three body problem – with highly unpredictable downside risk for the Conservative Party
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The
@JLPartnersPolls
Octopus of Doom™️
Brutal
@JLPartnersPolls
latest on the Tory 2019 vote bleeding out
20 per cent to Reform, 15 per cent to Labour.
Just 4 in 10 staying with Conservatives.
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tl;dr When pensioners all but abandon your party an influx of younger people saying they will vote for you might end badly
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NEW:
@RestisPolitics
/
@JLPartnersPolls
poll, 31st May-2nd June
🚨Labour lead up to 17 points🚨
LAB: 43% (+3)
CON: 26% (-2)
REF: 12% (-)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-2)
Podcast:
Tables:
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🆕 Poll from
@JLPartnersPolls
/
@RestIsPolitics
🆕
👀Reform are up to 15%
📉Conservatives and Labour both down (within MoE)
🌹Labour lead remains at 17 points
Full results at:
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Important that this stuff is corrected quickly and we accepted ITV's correction in this case.
The media are doing a difficult job and it is important that politicians are challenged. Equally those of us who are collecting representative samples using best-practice deserve due
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Great that newspapers like
@Telegraph
commission public opinion research. And in that spirit…fixed, to show the absolute minimum error
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Proportion of the British public strongly in support of NATO:
September 2021 33%
March 2022 50%
via
@YouGov
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We have Keir Starmer winning last nights debate. If you look at the individual moments and how the public rate the answers given you see why
NEW:
@TheSun
/ JLP debate poll of 1,000 viewers
Who, in your view, performed best?
Starmer: 53%
Sunak: 33%
Conservative 2019 voters:
Starmer: 33%
Sunak: 60%
Tables:
Watch + WormTest reactions, on Never Mind the Ballots:
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Below the surface of our latest
@JLPartnersPolls
/
@RestIsPolitics
poll there are signs that the Conservatives are setting the stage to bring their core vote home although the Reform vote seems to be out of reach
NEW:
@RestisPolitics
/ JLP poll, June 28th - July 1st 2024
*Labour lead at 15 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 39% (-2)
CON: 24% (-1)
REF: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)
Tables:
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45 years worth of British Prime Ministers in one picture.
What the public thinks of them in our
@RestIsPolitics
/
@JLPartnersPolls
tracker👇
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There it is. That’s the tweet
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@MartinSLewis
@HzBrandenburg
I hate to be that guy, because love your work, but twitter polls are junk
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Research from
@JLPartnersPolls
for
@CentenaryAction
in
@CosmopolitanUK
Just 37% of women say they feel the election campaign is covering issues important to them.
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We asked a representative sample of the public in every G7 and BRICS nation what they thought the leading risks were to their country:
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There are children who haven’t even done their GCSE’s who are about to see their sixth different Prime Minister. If you were born in 1980 you were 37 before seeing the same number.
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The Red Wall is looking more like a Blue Cliff as far as Boris Johnson's ratings are concerned
Boris’ ratings have collapsed in the Red Wall. His rating is now at minus 35.
More Conservative 2019 voters also say he is doing badly rather than well (minus 2).
And he has lost the support of Leave voters, with 37% saying he is doing well and 57% that he is doing badly. (4)
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We are in an incredibly febrile place in which a large chunk of voters are deeply unhappy with politics
#JLP2024
New word clouds from JL Partners revealing most popular descriptions for both Starmer and Sunak.
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🚨🗳️Over 1 in 4 voters would select a 'None of the above' box on the ballot paper this Thursday if it were an option
Latest
@JLPartnersPolls
/
@RestIsPolitics
data from the weekend
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No, James is right because there is only one of these groups of voters for whom immigration is a salient, vote defining, issue
Both James and Rob are right! There are older authoritarian voters, more clustered in certain types of seats that like this stuff but there is also a marked shift towards liberalism so it damages the Tory brand - particularly amongst younger voters.
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Please, and I cannot stress this enough, do not "punch the numbers into electoral calculus...."
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If you are in any way interested in US politics you have to listen to David Axelrod’s pod with
@RonBrownstein
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Fascinating rapid voter reactions to the budget with
@38degrees
and
@JLPartnersPolls
:
⚡️CoL crisis dwarfs government giveaways/tax cuts
👩⚕️ Many people think National Insurance = NHS
🧓Pensioners feel left out
🪞 They mirror those from the Autumn Statement so...
📈Expect the same
The Spring Statement has failed to win over the country.
Our rapid response voter panel study offered a “generally negative” response to headline policies.
Read more 👇
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The Conservatives are now in “is it a percentage or is that the number of seats” territory
NEW: Our first MRP of the 2024 General Election
Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority
LAB 487
CON 71
LD 43
SNP 26
RFM 3
PC 2
30,044 interviews conducted online and on the phone
Fwk 22 May - 2 June
Conducted on behalf of
@BestForBritain
@VasilSurvation
looks at the findings
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This is a must listen to make sense of this packed week in politics – that is still only half over!
NEW 🇬🇧 focus group for
@timesradio
with swing voters (half undecided, half Con-to-Lab switchers)
*Worst focus group for the Conservatives since we started this series in 2020.*
💥 Views of PM Rishi Sunak:
- "Failed"
- "Meek, no real presence"
- "Money, upper class" ... (1/6)
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@JLPartnersPolls
@Callum_L_Hunter
Seriously though there is an amazing website with all the
@JLPartnersPolls
SRP model outputs on that the whole team have been working on. Just incredible detail for election watchers. We live in a golden age of psephology
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First clip mentioning those
@IpsosUK
numbers (always time for a pic of
@adamfleming
, but he wasn’t actually presenting)
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"There are NAs in everything, it's where the light get's in" Ernest Hemingway
#rstats
#datascience
#machinelearning
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Really interesting that we see the same trends with young people in France – the rejection of Centrism
NEW JLP
@TheSun
: Reform in 2nd place with 16/17 year olds, joint-1st with males
All 16/17s:
LAB: 39%
REFORM: 23%
GRN: 18%
LDEM: 9%
CON: 5%
Males:
REF: 35%
LAB: 35%
LDEM: 11%
CON: 11%
GRN: 2%
Females:
LAB: 43%
GRN: 33%
REF: 12%
LDEM: 8%
CON: 0%
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Biden still running well ahead of Clinton 2016 pace as the final polls trickle in
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A.) Their vote/ Conservative gains look like they might be distributed across the country in such a way as to produce a large landslide
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"Additional tightening" is a euphemism for the ages
United Airlines now confirming
@theaircurrent
’s reporting, saying: “Since we began preliminary inspections on Saturday, we have found instances that appear to relate to installation issues in the door plug – for example, bolts that needed additional tightening.”
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Quiet evening for
@JLPartnersPolls
.... Just our final SRP model exclusively on Channel 4.
Full graphics and seat numbers on our website:
Full credit to
@Callum_L_Hunter
and the whole team
Labour to win a majority of 234 suggests an exclusive poll for Channel 4 News by JL Partners.
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Exciting news! Thrilled to welcome
@Scarlett__Mag
to our team as the newest addition to
@JLPartnersPolls
. We really are very luck to have her onboard
NEWS: I’m really looking forward to starting as a Director at
@JLPartnersPolls
next month.
It’s time for a change, but I’m grateful for the bulk of my twenties spent in political TV/radio. I’ve loved it - especially launching and producing the inimitable
@afneil
’s C4 show
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NEW
@JLPartnersPolls
data: 📉📉📉
Does Liz Truss even maintain support of Conservative members who elected her this Summer?
NEW:
@JLPartnersPolls
of Conservative Party members for
@Telegraph
If there were a repeat contest today, members would vote for Rishi Sunak over Liz Truss - by a margin of 60% to 40%.
More than half of Tory members think the PM is doing a bad job. (1/5)
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The first female President had to win all three presidential debates
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Really enjoyed listening to Sascha's whistle stop/(down) tour of public opinion research in the UK
🎙️NEW EPISODE🎙️As every poll tells us how unpopular Sunak is I found out the secrets of pollsters + could the polls be wrong?
@AndrewCooper__
@StanGreenberg
@tmlbk
@Scarlett__Mag
@RMCunliffe
focus groups w
@joshuahwilliams
@LabourTogether
&
@LukeTryl
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According to the paper published alongside
@YouGov
's MRP model by
@benlauderdale
Labour are peaking LATE. Is there more to come??
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The government ratings for handling the NHS are on the move too, but as
@jamesjohnson252
adroitly points out they are just back to where they were in December 2019 at the last election
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The Conservative Party's 'Dunkirk' moment. Can they save enough to fight on?
NEW: JLP SRP model projection in The Sunday Times
🔴 LABOUR: 450 seats
🔵 CONSERVATIVE: 105 seats
🟠 LIB DEM: 55 seats
🟡 SNP: 15 seats
🟤 PLAID CYMRU: 3 seats
🟣 REFORM UK: 2 seats
🟢 GREEN: 1 seat
🟥 LABOUR majority of 250
Details:
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A complete pleasure to work with the world-class team
@MunSecConf
Special thanks to
@tmlbk
,
@jamesjohnson252
and the rest of the
@KekstCNC
who were a pleasure to work with! I'm happy Tom & James will join my colleagues
@laurahartmann
&
@SophEisentraut
for a presentation of the index at
@Hertie_Security
tomorrow!
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Incredible modelling work by
@IpsosFrance
@benatipsosmori
🗳️
#Presidentielle2017
► Estimation Ipsos /
@SopraSteria_fr
à 20h42 du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour
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So they are getting through likely voter screens at a higher rate than history would suggest they should.
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@MartinHeneghan
@jamesjohnson252
@JLPartnersPolls
@politico
Good teachable comment. The margin of error is essentially identical for a sample of 1000 regardless of whether a population is 60m people or 300m people
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Labour should say that their National Service is the National Health Service – the NHS. You can only assume they are keeping their powder dry for the closing weeks
For a while I have thought that Labour should announce that they are declaring a national emergency on the NHS on
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How have the public responded to Conservative Conference 2022? Now we've had time to look at a range of
@JLPartnersPolls
and focus groups what did the public make of it all? Find out tomorrow with
@InstituteGC
Please join the
@InstituteGC
’s Political Team tomorrow, Thursday October 13th, at 11:30 am UK time as we discuss the political implications and fallout from the Tory Conference with
@tmlbk
,
@DavidGauke
, and
@REWearmouth
.
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And if anyone thinks the discontent isn't reaching the Conservative Party's core audience. Here are views of Boris Johnson *just* with leave voters in the Red Wall
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For those with incredibly short memories
Reminder of what the voters think of Boris Johnson, when asked to describe him in a word - from
@JLPartnersPolls
in April.
And yes, they still think it.
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This is such a stark trend in British political life and even more so at local elections.
Our best estimate is that only 1 in 4 of those under 25 who vote at general elections vote in locals compared to 3 in 4 of those aged over 65 (Rallings and Thrasher 2004)
Somehow managed to summarise my entire PhD thesis on the growing UK voting age gap in 1000 words for the
@PolStudiesAssoc
blog. Give it a read! ⬇️
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Two weeks today will be election eve and Trump 2020 looks very much like Trump 2016 in polls of key swing states
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Wrote in a newsletter this afternoon that a lot of campaign was about to happen in a short space of time. That was about 4 hours ago. A lot has happened.
Not sure anyone is going to remember the first two weeks of the campaign
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The trajectory of approval in one of these countries is not like the others
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He's taken a massive dive there. Yellow for simulation
🚣♂️ Liberal Democrat leader
@EdwardJDavey
has been campaigning in the Lake District today, although his paddleboat session turned upside down when he fell in the water.
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
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Enjoyed talking to
@lizzzburden
and
@stephencrrll
about how voters might be reacting to a slew of Westminster stories about other people in Westminster.
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