Patrick Flynn
@patrickjfl
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Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 [email protected]
Joined April 2020
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
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Our final Bi_Focal of 2024 looks at the key lessons we've drawn from a (very busy) year in polling.
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RT @LukeTryl: Am like a broken record on this, but every conversation with the public shows there is no more slack when it comes to trust i…
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RT @eleanormia: Since the assisted dying bill was announced, I've been keeping a close eye on MP views I've found 207 supportive and 141 o…
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Thanks for the kind words on this chart, and hello to all the new followers. A reminder that I’m also on Bluesky (same handle).
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
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The 2000-2008 elections are also included (see the points at which the lines change direction), they just aren’t labelled to avoid cluttering the graphic.
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@OwenWntr @daniella_raz Great piece. It's an issue the industry has to reckon with over coming years — how do you sample a population which is highly correlated with low interest in politics and lack of trust in institutions/polling itself? Traditional methods will not suffice imo.
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Important work as always from John! Dems made mistakes and have a lot of work to do but this factor played a key part in their loss.
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat. Some of those stories may even be true! But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇
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Trump had a clear lead among voters on the top three issues of inflation/cost of living, immigration and jobs/economy. The fundamentals won out.
The overall story, so far: Nothing here looks like a story of various campaign decisions or a VP choice or big set piece speeches. It's an electorate mad at the incumbent WH's record and expressing it pretty uniformly everywhere, blue and red states alike.
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Question assuming the inevitable happens: would any Democratic candidate have won under the circumstances or was Harris uniquely weak?
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The underlying data in the exit polls suggest Harris is on track to win PA by 0.3%, and Trump is on track to win NC by 0.4%. Keep in mind that while exit polls are more reliable than normal polls, they are far from perfect.
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RT @blockedfreq: Early, but she is outperforming the partisan margin here. Getting some GOP and INDs.
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Harris looks like she's up in some of the higher population counties, whereas Trump is up in the rural areas. Could be another close one.
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