Tim Leunig
@timleunig
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Director, PublicFirst, Chief Economist Onward,Visiting Prof LSE Sch of Public Policy, Assoc, Nuffield Coll Oxford. Policy thoughts: https://t.co/1d6S7k84rd
London
Joined March 2011
Sad moment on the doorstep today. An 80 year old lady told me she was turned away at the polling station for owning no relevant photo ID. "We fought for votes for women. I have voted in every election. Now they have taken it away." Hope the next government sorts this out.
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This picture shows why HS2 is costing the UK so much. Flat land is perfect for trains. But to please a few NIMBYs we are spending a literal fortune not just putting it in a trench, but in a tunnel. (Big embodied carbon cost as well).
Because British people thought that the view of a passing high speed rail train was such a blight, that it would be better to tunnel trains that could operate perfectly fine at surface level.
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Thanks to @The_TUC for this compilation - people have always reckoned that others are workshy. (Tip, if you can't find enough workers, raise wages, or mechanise. There is no third option). 1/2
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7 quarters of falling living standards - something that has not happened since records began almost 70 years ago. Our country is in a deep, deep mess.
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You won't believe how bad this pie chart is! The NHS Counter Fraud Authority @NHSCFA are using a pie chart to show the change over 5 years. I could cry. @jburnmurdoch @stianwestlake @sib313 @whippletom
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Imagine how much better living standards would be if you only had to pay £120k for a house in London. Let's build LOADS more houses (and flats) and make that happen. We really can all be much richer.
Always love a house price in a biography as a reminder of what used to be affordable. In 1954 Roy Jenkins bought a six bed house in Notting Hill for £120k in today's money. Would now cost around £4-5 million.
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Nick Crafts' death has robbed Economic History of a clear thinker, an outstanding researcher, an excellent writer, a committed teacher and a wonderful colleague and mentor. @EcHistSoc.
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This 3 bed in Streatham sold for £96,500 in 1998. (£182k in today's money). Today it is worth £932k. Life would be much better if it had stayed at £182k. Certainly closer to £182k than £932k.
@timleunig @timleunig at what point would you say housing in London had become ‘affordable’? Interested since I think it’d be good to run numbers as to what would be needed at varying levels of change in population to achieve that objective through new-build homes alone.
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My LSE colleague Paul Cheshire has reported that more land is used for golf courses than for housing in Surrey. @henryoverman @LSE_SERC.
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tragically, the Kingston bus station, next to the train station, has been redeveloped with no flats of offices above it. Such a missed opportunity.
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We have a choice - we can build up - more flats (think 5-7 storeys), come together (terraces) or build out (more low density suburbs on greenfield land). Otherwise homes will get ever more expensive and young people will be ever more stuffed. To govern is to choose.
Would you sacrifice the character of your area to build more homes?🏠. @amolrajan and @bbcnickrobinson discuss what needs to change to make housing more affordable with economist Tim Leunig. 🎧 Listen to The Today Podcast on @BBCSounds.
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This is big news. We may have passed "peak birth". Not enough people are thinking about the consequences. People born today may see a world in which countries compete for immigrants. .
This shows the global population of children under the age of 5 – data from 1950 until today, and the UN's forecast until the end of the century. The global population of children peaked five years ago. [from our Global Demography Explorer .
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London could be affordable if councils allowed Islington style town houses, & Pimlico flats- or if govt created a permitted development for that. We could make London affordable: Labour are following the Tories in deciding not to. Big shame, especially for the young.
@timleunig London is the least affordable place, and always has been. Does that mean that every year we increase the targets in London compared with everywhere else? Just creates total fantasy targets for London which won't be delivered.
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Now that I am no longer a civil servant, I can write for the press again. Here is an FT op-ed on how to design a ULEZ without losing elections.
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Electric car now cheaper than petrol: Vauxhall e-Corsa vs Corsa. Same deposit, lower monthly payment. If you have off road parking, it will have much lower running costs as well - a steal for the right buyer.
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I owe @bswd a drink. He read my prize-winning 2012 airports report; summarised why 4 runways at LHR over the M25 (almost) doubles capacity and cuts noise below today's levels. He summarised it in this thread, and answered every q, sensible and otherwise. Thank you!.
The Tim Leunig plan for expanding Heathrow westwards over the M25, which allows for four runways yet reduced noise (by moving away from nearly everyone in the flightpaths) is still the best option out there.
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This is important. It (almost) doesn't matter what we build - the benefits of more housebuilding are widely felt, because the people who buy new executive housing free up other housing for other people.
New research from Sweden shows that while most new homes are occupied by households with above-average incomes, the homes freed up by this initial move are mostly moved into by households with below-average incomes
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I expect to be made redundant at Christmas, as part of the Civil Service 2025 plans to reduce headcount by 91,000. If you might have a use for me, please get in touch. DMs open, and please RT. Thank you. 4/4.
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Market economics works. If you don't have enough staff, pay them more and you will. (cf teachers, etc)
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More job news. I will be leaving the civil service this summer and moving to Public First.
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Job news. My fixed term contract with @HMTreasury is over, and I will be leaving at the end of June. 1/4.
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Delighted to announce that my time at @LSEnews continues. I have been appointed a Visiting Professor in Practice in the @LSEPublicPolicy
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Now that I am no longer a civil servant, I can say things in public that I would only say in private before. (I am the last minute - at 17:00).
🐷EXPOSING THE GROUND RENT GRAZERS🐷. This one’s for @BimAfolami, @RishiSunak, @michaelgove, @Lee4NED and @mtpennycook. In a general election year, it is crucial to debunk the sector spin of the ‘ruined granny’ and show who is really behind the protection racket of ground rent.
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Our first house is now worth 8x what we paid in 1996. Salary for my job then has risen 2.5x. No wonder the UK young don't vote Conservative. @jburnmurdoch
@racheljanetwolf @timleunig The flat we bought in 2006 is now three times as much whereas the salary for the job I was doing then is up about 50%. It's nuts.
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This is remarkable. Offshore wind for £44/mWh when gas generated electricity is costing ~4x the amount. CfD contracts are not only cheap and green, but the low price is locked in. @guynewey @DrSimEvans.
The record-low £37/MWh for offshore wind in today's UK auction result is all the more remarkable amid severe global commodity price inflation. (£44/MWh in current money).
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Over 70 or clinically extremely vulnerable? You can book a vaccine slot even if you have not had a letter offering you the jab. Click or ring 119 for free. Please retweet, tell other people you know etc etc.
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You can really see how David Cameron and the @Conservatives killed wind power in England. (Also shows why I love devolution - make bad policy choices more obvious, and therefore easier to undo) Thanks
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There are plenty of countries richer than us that have higher taxes than the UK. Tax rates are not the obvious determinant of growth.
"I don’t believe that there is a single reputable economist around the world who believes that the answer now to the UK’s productivity problems is to raise taxes in order to spend on welfare payments." @BorisJohnson
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I am off to @DHSCgovuk for 6 months, working on cancer, mental health and other issues. These are important issues and I hope to make a difference 3/4.
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If you have never studied economics, this article is close to the perfect 10 minute course in how economists think, and why economics is useful in answering big questions including war and peace. And economists will like it too. Thanks @MargRev.
Substitutes Are Everywhere: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect
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The post war history of the UK car industry shows how levelling up policy can destroy GDP and reduce living standards across the country. It is hard to buck markets.
One of the many distortions created by postwar British planning law was to force the British motor industry away from building new factories in its traditional hub of Birmingham to scattered locations of areas of high unemployment.
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Your claim is that 1933 build rates cannot be beaten in the 2020s, despite all the improvements in technology? I find that unconvincing. Big message from this chart is surely that post war planning controls reduced building a LOT.
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I wrote it, @ros_hutchinson. Despite the threat of VAT, private school applications are the second highest in history. I have no doubt that the sector will be fine, and that Labour will raise a decent sum of money. My full article is here: @SchoolsWeek.
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The work that @BoyanSlat is doing to prevent plastic entering the ocean is so effective. Bravo!.
Another look at Monday’s record extraction day (half a million lbs!) in Guatemala:
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Wow. This is nuts. Government allows farming to massively pollute our rivers while banning new houses, even though they onlymoved pollution from where people used to live, to where they now live. Hopefully @TamFinkelstein @defra will get to the bottom of this.
Astonishing research from @HomeBuildersFed. At the same time as 160,000 homes are held up by nutrient neutrality rules, the Environment Agency has approved farms exceeding standard legal limits of nitrogen use by 1.1m kgs. That’s equivalent to more than 600,000 homes.
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Whilst there are legitimate qs about student visa misuse, never forget UK Universities are major exporters, and level up the UK. International students at the Unis of Sunderland, Huddersfield, Portsmouth etc are spending money locally and bringing prosperity.
Such a weird backwards view of what drives economic growth. Higher education is one of the most important exports that developed nations have. Selling a terrifically valuable service to foreigners. It just happens to be bought on our soil (which means they buy a tremendous amount.
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I crunched the new housing numbers properly last night (meaning Stata, not Excel). Don't like the outcome one bit. Will write it up properly over the weekend. Young people are going to be very disappointed with Labour in 5 years if they stick to this plan.
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Great news: @UCAS cancel personal statements. They cause huge stress for applicants, waste school time and are rarely read by university admissions teams. (I never read the: who cares if you play the flute or spent a week saving the rhino?)
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The Attlee government was **very** averse to private enterprise, nationalising 1000s of small parcel firms, coal, steel, rail etc. British Sugar was next in line. 1/3.
@IronEconomist @timleunig No, they really did intend to kill (private) housebuilding. Alongside the TCPA they initially completely banned private housebuilding without a “building license” and only issued 20–40k/year between 1946 and 1951. They wanted public housebuilding only.
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All jobs that don't offer WFH will have to offer higher pay if they want to recruit staff that can otherwise get WFH positions. This will be true for both teachers and TAs, among others.
The more I look at it the more I can’t see how schools will be able to continue recruiting learning support assistants, & receptionists & many other roles which - let’s be honest - have often been done by women who needed term time-only jobs and so accepted low pay.
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This is the scariest thing I have seen. This appears completely real, and it is completely fake. I genuinely do not know how we will tell reality from the fakes that will be everywhere.
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Delighted to be joining @ukonward two days a week in the new year, as Chief Economist, and equally delighted to be remaining at PublicFirst as Director of Economics three days a week. [Want to hire a great econ team? DM me. ].
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I agree with every single one of @IronEconomist contributions to this exchange. If we grant more planning permissions we will get more houses, more reservoirs, etc. Markets are very useful things for allocating resources to things that are really needed.
Amazing how often this issue is overlooked. I swear I know people who talk as if you just change planning laws and then Pop! Out of nowhere appear thousands of housebuilding elves. .
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I am humbled. I was planting snowdrops earlier today and came in for a cuppa as soon as it started to hail!.
People are awesome. Someday this will be a bushy old hedgerow with oaks every 30-40ft
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This really is an outstanding essay on Malthus, and the origins of economic growth in England. Every single @LSEEcHist #EH101 should read it. Thanks @MaxCRoser for writing it.
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Labour really are serious about both being on the side of builders, and about net zero. When people say "it doesn't matter who I vote for", they are wrong!.
At the end of his first full week as Energy Sec, Ed Miliband has approved three large-scale solar farms. ✅ Sunnica Energy Farm.✅ Mallard Pass Solar Farm.✅ Gate Burton Energy Park. 1.5GW of clean power unlocked with the stroke of a pen.
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I said @UKLabour might find loads of nasties when they got into govt. Tories told me I was wrong, saying @PJTheEconomist says everything is known. Today we discover that the nasties were so well hidden even Paul did not spot them in advance! 1/2.
Rachel Reeves says £6.4bn overspend on asylum this year. Huge number. Does genuinely appear to have been unfunded.
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Outstanding and important column from @ChrisGiles_ UK QE was MUCH more expensive than elsewhere. Perhaps we should have used fiscal policy more - £100bn of investment rather than QE losses could have raised our growth potential.
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Britain has more homeless people than other countries: @jburnmurdoch on exceptional form today: clear about facts, clear about causes, clear about implications. Read it and weep, better still read it and remember it when you vote later this year.
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The best route to economic growth for UK and @UKLabour is too liberalise planning, with a much greater rule for permitted development. A guaranteed job creator.
aside from all the direct benefits to higher quality and more abundance, the Auckland housing boom has been great for blue collar employment:
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If you build enough houses, houses become affordable. Evidence for basic economics here. .
The 'empty quadrant' is one of the most replicated findings in housing research. There expensive cities that don't build. There are cheap cities that do build. And there are no cities that build lots of housing and still see very high housing costs.
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I will always be proud of the work we did on furlough (with our wonderful colleagues in @HMRCgovuk), on arbitration for commercial rents, and on High Street Rental Auctions. 2/4.
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All politicians need to learn that you can't buck the market, and that the market is increasingly international. If you pay low wages, as we do for teachers, we will have vacancies. It really is that simple.
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Housebuilder shares rose this morning. Points to markets not being efficient - surely we knew yesterday that Labour would win?
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The third covid vaccine dose doesn't just work, it works spectacularly well. If you are eligible, go to a walk in centre today. Type your postcode in here:
Emergency extension of the y-axis. Big clue that something important is happening.
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One of the reasons the UK public sector costs a lot, and yet finds it so hard to recruit good people. Pension-biased renumeration is not a winner! h/t @JohnRalfe1.
Data show that traditional defined-benefit retirement plans aren’t a path to improved recruitment or retention. When it comes to younger workers in particular, policymakers need to accept the new reality. @Jen_Sidorova.
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Received a lovely email today: "We overlapped briefly at HMT but didn’t meet. I covered in XXX's PO and was advised, on a slow Friday in recess, to search for emails from you in our inbox and read them all. It was a very good Friday" Made my day! #ShowAppreciation.
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This piece is utter nonsense. If we allowed 10 stories on all sites across London, the value of land would fall because speculators would realise housing would soon be abundant, and this land values low.
Bit late to this, no doubt it will annoy a lot of people, but it is an insightful piece. Lifting zone restrictions is not sufficient; rents are mostly about incomes, you know the sort of thing.
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Guess what? If you don't build enough houses in the right places, housing becomes more expensive. #EC101 PS It is the worst in 7 years because we only have data for 7 years. It is probably the worst in 70 years or 700 years.
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3 doses of the covid vaccine will cut your risk of dying from covid by over 98%. I still find that utterly remarkable. My huge thanks to all those involved - you may have saved my life, you have certainly saved many lives.
Update: COVID deaths in Switzerland by booster status. Compared to unvaccinated people, the COVID mortality rate is:.• 11x lower after full vaccination.• 56x lower after a booster. [From our post with @maxcroser on death rates by vaccination status:
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And to those saying "these pay rises are a choice" - only up to a point. If Perm Secs are telling Ministers that recruitment and retention are awful the choice is rather hollow.
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BBC report 5000 nail technicians agree to raise prices on Monday. Looks like illegal price fixing. @CMAgovUK.@CitizensAdvice Anyone doing this can be fined 10% of turnover & banned from being a company director.
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British workers are LESS likely to take sick leave than in any other rich developed country. #FactsMatter, thank you @benatipsos.
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Hallelujah! Let us give thanks. And here is to the rest of the world following in their footsteps.
Our World in Data reports ZERO new COVID cases in Israel on March 27th. (I know some people are really sticklers for reporting cases as a percent of population, so note that as a percent of population, this is also zero)
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This is correct from Tony Blair: our own emissions are less important than what we do to get everyone's emissions down, whether by accelerating tech to cut costs, or by diplomacy.
Tony Blair’s office says that the most “heretical” phrase in the interview was a description of other people’s views
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This is one of those really important facts whose significance will only be understood in retrospect. Once we stop using marginal land for food, food prices will fall, as it is marginal cost of production that sets price.
For millennia, humans have used more and more land for agriculture, taking over wild habitats. But, we are at a unique point in history: agricultural land use has peaked. My latest article:.
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The £22bn is an annual, recurrent, black hole not a one off!.
Superb. The 395 tonnes of gold flogged off by Gordon Brown at the bottom of the market would be worth … £22 Billion … today. There’s ya black hole sorted.
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A pleasure to take my old @LSEEcHist friend and colleague Debin Ma out for tea, to celebrate his @OxfordESH Professorship.
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It is true that we work fewer hours, which peaked at about 3500 a year, in the industrial revolution. That is good - more leisure is one of the many benefits of economic growth. @joachim_voth
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Surely, surely, @UKLabour cannot go into the next election having overseen a massive rise in poverty, and a massive rise in child poverty? What would be the point of the party?.
Currently, absolute and relative poverty are heading in the wrong direction. If the economic forecasts and policies inherited by the new Gov remained unchanged, 1.5 million more people, including 400,000 children, would be in relative poverty by the end of the Parliament.
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One of our office cleaners told me that I was the first office worker to talk to him in five years cleaning our office. So sad. We should all make time for those doing jobs we depend on.
Damn
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It is about time Tim Martin @WetherspoonsTA was knighted. He is one of our most successful entrepreneurs and has done much to revitalise our High Streets.
Pub giant JD Wetherspoon announces "January Sale" next week with some pints at £1.99 - tough competition for other pubs - as founder Tim Martin is set to be knighted for "services to business".
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Solar is now so cheap and in the right places so effective that it is being installed by people who do not care about global warming. This is how we will prevent further climate worsening.
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Remember that there are many good and interesting jobs outside academia.
Dear senior faculty,. If you could give your junior faculty self one piece of advice, what would it be?. Thanks in advance!. Sincerely,.A stressed out assistant professor looking for guidance.
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I lost count of the number of times in govt and out when people said to me "Treasury said no" and I have said "when? and to what exact q?" And they said "We have not actually asked, because we know what they will say".
@ChrisGiles_ I'm sort of with you. I'd like to at least try a concerted national campaign where when someone says "Treasury said no" we all reply "yeah but did they? Really? Did they really? I bet they didn't" instead of "booo, Treasury bad".
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😀Good news! Two days ago I tweeted the worst pie chart ever. Within a day @NHSCFA DM'd me that they had changed it. 😀(Sure, it is not perfect, but it is good enough) Thank you! @whippletom.@GavinFreeguard @sib313 @jburnmurdoch @stianwestlake.
You won't believe how bad this pie chart is! The NHS Counter Fraud Authority @NHSCFA are using a pie chart to show the change over 5 years. I could cry. @jburnmurdoch @stianwestlake @sib313 @whippletom
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As I say to my students: If you are ever offered the chance to go back in time, just say no. Life was overwhelmingly hard work, as well as the much higher chance of dying young.
The “good old days” were much harder. In 1865 the average British worker . worked 124,000 hours over their life (like the US & Japan). In 1980, only 69,000 hours, despite living longer. Since then, it dropped slower, by 6%. We went from spending 50% of our lives working to 20%!
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The cost of children is now much higher (lost female earning power), so people have fewer. If the state pays enough, people have more, see Estonia: h/t @Work_Life_You.
😬 What do people think is the cause?.a) Housing market?.b) Childcare?.c) Who wants kids anyway?.d) Other.
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(I am only cancelling because my new employer subscribes. But being on hold this long puts me off subscribing. Any company that allows you to subscribe online should allow you to cancel online. Shoddy practice not to).
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In the nineteenth century, we put up lots of statues by public subscription, to honour people of merit. I wish we still did - I would donate for a statue of Navalny. Preferably opposite the Russian Embassy. #LetFreedomReign.
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I agree 100% with @PJTheEconomist. The covid enquiry is not proceeding in a sensible manner.
I’m pretty grumpy. Lots to learn about responding to covid & future pandemics. A serious analysis of trade offs implicit in lockdowns, social costs etc is needed. But spending 4 years and £100m+ on who said what to whom in a series of legalistic confrontations is ludicrous.
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Want to reduce your chance of dying from covid by more than 95%? All you have to do is get vaccinated. Thank you to all the scientists, and to @NHSEngland who have reduced my chance of dying from covid so spectacularly. Love you all.
Update: The COVID mortality rate among unvaccinated people is 24 times higher than among vaccinated people. This is the latest age-standardized data from Switzerland. [From our post with @maxcroser on death rates by vaccination status:
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Inflation adjusted global median income has **doubled in 17 years**. All time record. Stunning. #LifeIsGettingBetter #GettingThere. Thanks @DinaPomeranz @LSEEcHist #EH101.
Two facts many people don't know:. 1) The global median income has doubled in 17 years from 2000 to 2017. A stunningly rapid progress the world has *never* seen before. (Adjusted for prices, so not due to inflation). 2) Still half the people in the world have less than $7 per day
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Yes, reducing the pension-biased renumeration of civil servants would help recruitment. Long overdue!.
@IGMansfield @timleunig @instituteforgov And pension reform - more up front salary at least as an option.
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@alanbeattie @lionelbarber As a civil servant, I write "The data shows that", but as an economic historian I write "The data show that", thus keeping both my tribes happy. (The @EcHistSocReview still uses "per caput". ).
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An outstanding example of brownfield redevelopment. Thanks @Lewis_Ilsley for highlighting. @createstreets @SCP_Hughes.
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Yup, this is true. We stopped factories and offices in Birmingham from expanding in the 1960s to level up the North. Didn't work. Bucking the market rarely does: it just makes us poorer.
In 1961, West Midlands households earned more on average than households in any other part of Britain. So, London-based planners banned almost all new building of factories, offices and housing south of Manchester in an attempt to rebalance the economy.
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Surely one for @herdyshepherd1 & @julian_glover. .
Bloodie collies think they’re so intelligent (because they are)
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It is worth understanding and appreciating how many of Ukraine's soldiers are, at most, part time soldiers. They absolutely did not choose to fight, to kill, or to die. Thanks @PippaCrerar.
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H/T @dmthomas90 - 15% of disadvantaged pupils in the UK are top performers in PISA. This is **THE BEST IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD**. Wow, just wow. Be proud, teachers! :-).
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I agree with @antonhowes that the Victorians did this well. Any one could submit a design, and the decision is made by a govt appointed panel.
The government wants an iconic design for British EV charge points, to compare with post boxes and telephone booths. Good. But hiring a consultancy design team is the wrong approach. Should be a public competition, like the Victorians would have done.
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This is why people who block off, or dig up the road, should pay a daily fee. They would then have an incentive to get on with it.
These road works near my house have been going on so long Nature is reclaiming the street.
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Darn, I thought this was going to be Cambridge England supporting denser, higher housing.
A Cambridge City Council Panel’s Proposal Would Legalize Six-Story Buildings. Everywhere. “If we want to take the housing crisis seriously, we need to be doing a lot better than we are right now.".- @realBurhanAzeem . 📍 Cambridge, MA.
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The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office invites UK students in Year 10 to Year 13 or equivalent to write 800 words about big economic challenges by 25 April 2021. £250 prize.
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"Don't get it right, get it written". It is easier to edit something you have written than think your way to the perfect sentence. Especially useful for young or inexperienced writers. I heard it when I was writing my undergrad dissertation.
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All the evidence is that people think it is time for change. I am playing my part in making it happen today.
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Am happy to forgive you, but I am a multiple prize winning transport economist, been a consultant to ATOC and serve in a DfT advisory panel. .
@timleunig @SCP_Hughes Forgive me, but your comments are typical think tank stuff - expert on one subject making sweeping and misleading statements on another without realising that there is actually a body of knowledge to be acquired first.
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The decline in Scottish educational standards is one of the saddest things to have happened in the UK in the last decade or so. National and International measures of standards are falling - particularly for poor kids. A big story for the future of the UK.
Worth reading if you’re getting your head around the worrying trends in educational performance in Scotland shown in yesterday’s Higher results. Perhaps they shouldn’t come as a surprise?. PISA 2022 in Scotland: declining attainment & growing inequality:
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