Director of Policy and Public Affairs at The Housing Forum.
#ukhousing
, planning, economics, housebuilding, social policy
Views are my own. Cambridge based
I really enjoy this platform, have learned loads, made new connections and love the way it makes you say things concisely. But like many, I'm deeply uncomfortable with seeing far right views promoted on the site. So today I've been trying out blue sky:
My daughter started a job as a prison officer aged 18. It's a tough job, and includes working every other weekend and some nights. Rishi Sunak thinks she should also give up one of her remaining free weekends each month to "volunteer"?
This makes me quite angry. Full time jobs like prison officers are tough when you're 18. She's up at 6am most mornings, commuting, dealing with really heavy situations at times. She deserves to have her free time like anyone else!
Saying this will give them a chance to learn "real-world skills, do new things and contribute to their community" implies that 18YOs aren't already learning real world skills in the workplace or contributing. It perpetuates this idea that they're all work-shy.
Rent levels are market-driven, Vicky. Landlords don't just "decide" to put rents up, they do it because they can, because tenants are willing to pay more. If they didn't they'd have 1000s of people applying for their property.
Rents are not natural forces. They cannot swell or spike on their own. If they rise, it’s because landlords and lettings agents have put them up. This week’s newsletter
@theipaper
is all about the enormous problem of historically high private rents…
A five-year battle against controversial plans to build 1,100 homes in rural Lancashire looks to be over after it emerged that the legal process to challenge it had been exhausted.
People are saying "but her job would be excepted". It probably would when it comes to the details. But 18YOs working in full time in jobs - including weekends - is not an exceptional situation that the government can be excused for having forgotten about.
This has got to be about the most incoherent and nonsensical commentaries on the housing shortage. It's tempting to ignore it. But it's a harmful argument that some will use to oppose the new housing we so badly need. So listing off the many reasons why it's wrong: 🧵
@MartinSLewis
@ofgem
That's good news. The flat-rate standing charges fall hardest on the poorest, who tend to live in smaller homes and use least power, and do nothing to incentivise people to use energy efficiently.
The answer to an inadequate sewage system is to improve the sewage system. It's not to support local people in their efforts to prevent any new housing.
Thanks to County Cllr Kevin Deanus and Alfold Parish Councillor’s Ed Mcudden and Julie Flenley for talking me through the issues Alfold is facing. Alfold Village has grown by hundreds of houses in recent years because of speculative development - with more anticipated.
While we
@PauletteHamilto
The whole HMOs requiring planning consent is hinged on this notion that multi-adult households cause problems in an area. I live in a multi-adult household of 5 (3 adult children, total of 4 cars....) but we're the "right kind" of household and don't need planning permission?
This is not the main reason why rents rise, especially for new lets. They rise because they can, because tenants are willing/desperate enough to pay them, to outbid other tenants. Because there isn't enough housing.
The great wealth transfer is coming. Trillions in wealth will be passed on to younger generations in the coming decades. Who will benefit?
I updated some of our
@TheIFS
for
@Robert_Booth
and
@guardian
.
With astronomical rents and rising bills, many renters are struggling.
London needs a rent freeze, as has been done in Scotland, and the Gov needs to give me the power to introduce a rent control system that works for London.
It's frustrating seeing the number of empty homes banded around so often as a solution to the housing crisis in London, with so little evidence on WHY homes are empty. Reasons for long term (ie 6m+) empties include....
Recent research by City Hall suggests 30,000 properties (worth over £2.2 bn) are sitting empty while thousands of
#Londoners
remain on
#housing
waiting lists. The highest concentration is in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chel…
@MrBrendanCox
I think protesting about immigration in response to these awful murders is pretty racist though. The implication is that immigration was the cause, yet the murderer was black, but not an immigrant.
@MayorofLondon
Prices are high because too many people are chasing too few homes. Rent controls can't fix that, and would likely make it worse. They've been trying it in Scotland, and it isn't going well - housing emergencies declared in both Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Rent controls don't just deter landlords (though they may). They also encourage tenants to stay put, not moving out or downsizing when they otherwise might, causing a lack of homes to rent for others.
Longer term fixes rate mortgages would make payments more predictable, but no cheaper on average. And I fail to see how they'd help more people become homeowners if there aren't any more homes for them to buy.
I wonder how much our small homes in the UK are because hardly anyone knows the size of their house? We don't measure them.
If we're buying, or renting we look at the number of bedrooms, so the incentive is to squeeze in as many tiny bedrooms as possible, not to build big.
Compared to Europeans, Americans have truly enormous houses. Here's the median size of a dwelling in every US state contrasted against select European countries on the same scale.
I did some research a few years ago on why sites in the public sector land for housing programme hadn't yet built out. We found out the actual reasons why housing doesn't just appear when planning permission is granted....
🚨Gove slams housebuilders hoarding a million plots of land as ‘completely unacceptable’.
🔴The top ten housebuilders alone have 700,000 building plots lying idle as the housing shortages continues to worsen.
By me and
@Victoria_Spratt
for
@theipaper
“In London alone, there are nearly enough under-occupied bedrooms to meet the housing needs of all overcrowded and homeless households in England.”
An argument for not needing to build more homes?
@IIPP_UCL
@UKLabour
@PaulaBarkerMP
So a drunk driver gets community service and loses their license for maybe 3 years. 18 year olds who've done nothing wrong also get community service, and their driving licences are taken from them?
@jessphillips
You're not wrong. And first time buyers purchasing homes worth over £300k would be unusual pretty much anywhere outside London. Would require income of £70k+
Nobody should be feeling pleased with themselves for opposing new housing built by "greedy developers" unless they live in A house built with their own bare hands.
🏠 One sub-section of society has become a lightning rod for righteous fury: Nimbys, but they can often be the last line of defence against greedy developers looking for a quick buck.
Here, we explain how you can be an effective Nimby ⬇️
It would be lovely if you really could buy a half price house with a view of a field of solar panels. But in reality I suspect the impact on house prices will be pretty marginal (or zero).
"It is every homeowner's worst nightmare. Waking up to discover that the idyllic countryside surrounding your family's beloved home is earmarked for a national infrastructure project. Meaning that your property may immediately be worth as much as 50 per cent less"
Rent controls in the news again - but these appear blind to the fact that there aren't enough properties for everyone who wants to rent. (That's what pushes the rents up). Controlling rents won't fix that - and will likely make it worse.
Homes are unaffordable because there aren't enough of them, which means all the would-be buyers bid up the price.
And the ones that are unavailable are.... unavailable.
@PolitlcsUK
@Telegraph
Haven't Sunak or his predecessors allegedly been planning to axe inheritance tax in just about every budget for the last 10+ years? Or does the Telegraph just re-run this rumour whenever there's a low news day?
Landlord demands right to no fault evictions, so that he can evict the *victim* of domestic violence (stabbing) as volatile ex is threatening her and the property. This surely highlights why tenants DO need stronger rights.
‘Section 21 saved our flat from being burned down – Michael Gove cannot scrap it’
Landlords fear the Renters’ Reform Bill could put tenants’ lives at risk
@J_Elliott94
It maybe isn't how you'd build it if you were starting from scratch, or how we should make best use of infill when it arises. But those are lovely (mid-density) neighbourhoods to live in, full of homes, gardens, life. I don't find it depressing.
@ChrisGiles_
This could actually be a really good thing for many newly retired people who need to make new friends, having just lost all their work contacts. I'd fully support it (on an optional basis), but suspect it's not on the list of ways to attract voters from Reform....
The combination of skyrocketing rental prices and having to compete with up to TWENTY others to rent a home is absolutely shocking. Renters in London need a rent freeze—the Government must give me powers to introduce one urgently.
Exclusive
@Telegraph
: Labour will tell councils to find green-belt land for development as part of a plan to solve the housing crisis within 10 years,
@lisanandy
has said
@FelicityHannah
My mother in law's response to this discussion was "but the young have so many nice clothes these days". Clothes ARE much cheaper, but they're not an alternative to houses!
@jryancollins
@IIPP_UCL
@_StefanHorn
If people feel their house is too big they should be supported to move. But the reality is that It's not, generally speaking, a problem for most people to have "spare" bedrooms (aka guest rooms, studies, etc). Most are happy where they are and don't wish to be "right-sized".
Radical plans for huge growth in and around Cambridge. There's currently 52,400 households in Cambridge - Government is talking about adding 200,000-250,000 more in just 17 years.
@Victoria_Spratt
I like the idea that someone might ask themselves "Do I fancy becoming a housing provider?" rather than "Should I invest in some buy to let housing?"
@PhinHarper
But to put this in context, 50,000 properties is around 0.2% of the UK housing stock. If we keep going at this rate houses will need to last 500 years each. We already have the oldest housing stock in Europe and they were never built to last forever. Sometimes change is needed.
@ianmulheirn
Those "spare" rooms include children's bedrooms that they don't wish to share with their 19 year old sibling, rooms where couples sleep separately, rooms used for kids who spend 50% of their time with each parent, rooms used for fostering children and many other uses.
Rent controls don't just deter landlords (though they may). They also encourage tenants to stay put, not moving out or downsizing when they otherwise might, causing a lack of homes to rent for others.
This map is being used to suggest Labour want to cut housebuilding in London, but that's not what the numbers really show. London target was reduced from 99k to 81k, but actual housebuilding was only *38k* - so new target is simply more realistic, not a decision to reduce rates.
Amazing map from FT. Cutting housing numbers in London and our large cities while promising to build more on the coast of Cumbria is likely to mean even higher housing costs in our cities - the place where they are already highest
Why is nobody moving house in London?
The fall in private renters moving looks big on this chart, but look at the current rate for social renters! About 2% have moved in the last year - if this rate continues the average tenancy will last 50 years. That can't be healthy.
@HenryPryor
I'd like to see the local councilor who says he's "devastated for the local community" returning to the area in a few years, when there are people living in the new homes and telling them all how devastated he was that their homes were built.
@puzzledzimbo
A lot of the companies we work with (in the housing sector) do that too. And they all talk about how the shift from school to full time work takes some getting used to for teenagers who find it hard getting up in the morning. Give them a break. They're doing just great!
Really interesting article here on impact of tripling council tax on second homes in Tenby - it's obviously causing pain for second homeowners, and some others who want to sell. But prices look to be falling, which was kind of the idea, presumably.
I often hear complaints from people trying to get houses built that local councillors block it. So yesterday, we ran a panel discussion to understand why, and how the housing sector can turn councillors into champions for new housing. Here's what we learned:
What are "Spare" rooms used for? Children having their own bedroom instead of sharing, kids who stay 50% with each parent, home offices, guest rooms, rooms for adult kids to move back to at times of crisis, couples sleeping separately, hobbies, foster children, paying guests...
This is not a functioning housing system:
1 in 50 people are being accommodated in "temporary" accommodation, with huge costs (to both them and the taxpayer), severe overcrowding and no ability to make plans for the future or feel settled or at home.
Firstly, the simple maths of X homeless people and X spare rooms is not a viable policy solution. We cannot requisition everyone's spare rooms and put homeless people in them.
@PaulKetchley
Yep, about that - the same as her older sister who's a newly qualified teacher. But it's a tough job and the prison service struggles to fill vacancies. The issue I have is that she's knackered after a full week's work and shouldn't be made to do unpaid extra work.
New data showing private rents have increased 29% in affluent areas and 52% in poorer areas over the last 4 years.
Worth noting that Local Housing Allowance is currently frozen at rates that reflect rents in 2019.
@GoodwinMJ
You realise that GB news omitted "in London" from their tweet - which is making you look to be WAY out, rather than just 2.4%? Are you happy for people to believe that it's 50% over the whole country? If I'd been misquoted like that I'd be furious!
But we need to understand that the cause of high rents is an under-supply of housing (to buy or rent), which puts renters in competition with each other for insufficient number of homes. Trying to hold rents down artificially (as we do already in social housing) won't fix this.
Your options are:
1) Build out into greenbelt
2) Build high density, including high-rise
3) Do neither and sit around blaming others for how expensive housing is.
Allowing local authorities to buy land at existing use value rather than the value it gains once planning permission is granted is an exciting idea. A few thoughts on what this will and won't do...
The Telegraph don't actually mean house pieces have fallen to a 14 year low - if they had done they'd be £154,000 on average, instead of nearly double that at £280,00 as they are currently.
@AnyaM8_
@PauletteHamilto
There appears to be no proposed changes to the exterior of the building here at all - so changes to the 'character of the property' presumably relate entirely to the perceived character/behaviour of the new residents with learning difficulties?
Great to see our "damning report" covered in the Telegraph today. The Right to Buy is lovely for those who get to buy homes at a huge discount. But leaves others unable to access social housing.
We already have:
- Social rent
- Affordable rent
- London Affordable Rent
- Intermediate market rent
Not sure another product with its own rules around rent increases will really help all that much.
The housing shortage is also so acute in much of the UK that we should absolutely do what we can to encourage downsizing AND build more homes. Neither strategy is likely to be enough. But using the existence of spare rooms to advocate for not building homes is deeply unhelpful.
@redderfreak
@VividRicky
An 18yo having a full time job that includes weekends is not a rare and exceptional situation that the PM can be excused for not having thought about.
If you think it's all "greedy landlords" who control rent levels, ask why landlords in, say, Hull don't decide to put them up to the same rates as London landlords? They aren't all philanthropists in Hull - they are just aware that demand is less strong.
@DianeLBW
She works many evenings too. It's a demanding, full time job, plus commuting. Which is pretty tiring already when you're 18. If it's just for the unemployed or students on arts degrees without weekend jobs, he should have said so.
So suddenly they'll be millions more households able to afford homeownership. House prices won't change. And the new houses for them will appear like magic.
Government needs to increase the capacity of the national grid, urgently - we need new homes with heat pumps. It's not good enough to say they can't be built, or have to have gas boilers.
@feedthedrummer
That's a odd bit of housing law that I wasn't aware of! Sounds as if it's to avoid people gaming the system by "renting" a house to someone on, say, a 100 year tenancy when effectively it's been sold (to avoid SDLT). Easy enough to avoid via renewing via a new tenancy though.
A 10% increase in the amount of social housing would be really welcome. But why would you want to do that by shrinking the size of another tenure? Why not use £15bn to build new social rented homes?
Fabian Society recommending a £15bn fund over 10 years to acquire 500,000 private rented homes to be provided as social housing.
That'd be equivalent to around tenth of the private rented sector brought into social ownership. ⬇️
Very good and comprehensive review of the efforts to tackle the historic undersupply of housing here from
@commonslibrary
. I liked this historic chart in particular which shows the big drivers of the trends.
@rcolvile
Isn't that largely because we were hit harder than most by the 2008 crash and were bouncing back in the 2010-16 period? Last 8 years not so strong.
With new suggestions of "third generation rent controls" (ie caps on increases within a tenancy) in England it's worth reviewing how well this worked in Scotland: In short - Badly
@jessphillips
@tonyrandall37
It's more of a gimmik than a tax cut - if first time buyers don't have to pay stamp duty, they just push up the price of housing by bidding more against each other.
I find this whole notion of "food security" very odd. The way to have security of food supply is diverse markets from all over the world - as indeed we have, operating very successfully. It's not to try to pretend we're an isolated island that needs to grow all its own food.
Our energy security must not come at the expense of our food security.
Today I’m making clear that solar farm applications should avoid the best quality farmland, and that proposals in areas with lots of applications are considered together.