Ben Page
@benatipsos
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Global Chief Executive of Ipsos. Visiting Professor at Kings College, London. Trends, polls, - but all views personal. “All the that remains of us is love”
Paris and London
Joined September 2009
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Back to my favourite Chris Whitty quote “it’s amazing how many clever people don’t know what exponential growth means”
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So my unvaccinated friend died in a ventilator at 330am today - extremely sad - but what is interesting is all the anti vaxxers accusing me of lying or somehow trying to scare people. I blocked most of them - but of course that leaves them in their own happy echo chamber. Ends.
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The end of the UK? Highest EVER recorded support for independence in Scotland (58%)
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The British are now the most pessimistic in the world about the direction of their country...
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Poll today - 57% regret the Brexit vote, but the Conservatives have a 16 point lead over Labour - confused? So are the public.
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Travelling across France at 300kpm at 48 euros for a 500km trip - it’s a shocking reminder of how bad Britain’s infrastructure is..
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Mourning my Dad, Charlie who died this morning. Much loved. Far, far cleverer than me with an amazing memory for history and art. Even in hospital, unable to speak was asking for Nietzsche and D H Lawrence! Charles Henry Page 27 May 1938 to 14 Feb 2022.
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NEW Positive reaction to
@POTUS
speech - 97% of Democrats rate the speech as good, but also and importantly 72% of Republicans and 78% of Independents. Maybe America will change..maybe
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Here's the worst rating for every Leader of the Opposition since 1978 - new record broken this week
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One chart tells you everything you need to know about British politics since 2016…
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Satisfaction with how the government is running the country
Satisfied 14%
Dissatisfied 81%
Net -67
Since 1977, only Major and May's government's experienced worse ratings...
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Despite niqabs etc being very exciting, fewer than 1% of the uk population likely to wear them - only 5% of population are Muslim in first place and most Muslim women in uk are not veiled. But Boris knows how to excite. Public think c15% of Population are Muslim
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NEW Scotland really is another country in its views of its leader and CV19 handling
@NicolaSturgeon
does miles better than
@BorisJohnson
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For 15 years, the UK has tried to dig a road tunnel under the Thames. No construction has happened, but the planning application is now more than 350,000 pages long, and the process has cost some £300 million.
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Happily took my Astra Zeneca yesterday - no clotting so far and statistically more likely to happen to someone who hasn’t had the vaccine!
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NEW British least likely in the world to think referendums are a good way of settling political issues
#BrexitDividend
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We really need the electoral count team from Sunderland on a plane to the USA - NOW
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Honoured to have been appointed global CEO of Ipsos - a company led by researchers and built over decades by Didier Truchot to 90 countries and 17000 people. Market and social research makes our world a better place
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This is dramatic - how you will meet your partner - implications still being worked through I think
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Here’s the worst rating for every Opposition leader since 1977.
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8 in 10 Britons concerned about climate change – half think net zero target should be brought forward
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So - do you have to be white to be British? We have asked in the past.... answer is NO. Also clear that overt racists are a very small part of British society
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Looking at Net Zero and woke stuff…it really looks like Conservative strategy is now simply activating their base and mitigating losses at election … nothing more
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Jeremy Corbyn has now got the lowest net satisfaction score for any leader of the Opposition Ipsos MORI has ever recorded
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We have just recorded our lowest EVER vote share for the
@Conservatives
since we began polling in the 1970s (they will likely get more than this in election, but still….)
New Ipsos poll for the Evening Standard
Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%
Lowest Tory % ever recorded in an Ipsos poll going back to the start of their regular polling in 1978.
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NEW asked if they were optimistic UK will be more tolerant and diverse in 10 yrs time, 66% of people say yes, up from 50% in 2009. And 84% strongly disagree that someone has to be white to be truly British - up from 55% 10 yrs ago.
#BlackLivesMatter
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NEW latest poll suggests Scotland may have shifted decisively in favour of leaving the UK
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Doesn’t this picture show so much about Britain. Heritage, monarchy, diversity, amazing music, crazy costumes (Skin from Skunk Anasie getting a gong)
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Great analysis of
@ipsosuk
polling showing that the “Stop the Boats” campaign is only working to excite the minority of current conservative voters by
@jburnmurdoch
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New What is closing parliament for? Most don't believe No 10
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The public believe 24% of the welfare budget is fraudulently claimed. According to IDS figure is 0.7%
#perilsofperception
Tomorrow’s front page: Benefits mum splurges £2k on 66 presents for her six kids
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The sick leave culture trope is popular, scroungers etc but appears to have little basis in reality compared to every other European country….
#evidencematters
(chart from
@resfoundation
)
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Important -
@Telegraph
reporting taking the piss by ignoring “don’t knows” to present an apparent majority - one for
@FullFact
@RoyalStatSoc
@TweetMRS
No, in an agree-disagree question ("Boris needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs from stopping it"):
44% of respondents agreed, 37% disagreed, and 19% said they did not know.
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NEW Is Brexit making your life better or worse? 45% worse (up from 28% ) and 17% better (up from 11%)
#brexit
. Public seem to be making minds up
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Youth turnout rose dramatically to its highest level in decades. But pensioner turnout fell..
#ge2017
(turned off by Cons manifesto?)
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In this job few things surprise me. But something we have coming out tomorrow at 12.00 ... is one of those times
#ohmygiddyaunt
. Just rechecking all the data (if it’s interesting it’s usually wrong is our motto.... )
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Our latest - 63% of British say Conservatives do not deserve another term in office
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In other news I have now discovered why the goldfish water seemed to be evaporating so rapidly
#catsoftwitter
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Amazing - stability and chaos - compare 2018 versus 2019 polling (h/t David Cowling and Martin Rogers)
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[Thread] I analysed around 13,000 retweets of Boris Johnson's tweet that read "The referendum result must be respected. We will leave the EU on 31st October.
#LeaveOct31
". He tweeted this twice, once on 15th Aug and again on 27th. The following is what I found:
#StopTheCoup
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Mother of teenager who called Chris Whitty a ‘liar’ has confiscated her son’s PlayStation
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
.
🚨Labour lead at 14 🚨
Lab 44 (+3)
Con 30 (nc)
Lib Dems 10 (-5)
Green 8 (+2)
Other 8 (nc)
Fieldwork July 21-27. Changes from June.
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There is no country we could find where a majority are positive about immigration
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Still find this remarkable.
#chartof2019
For the first time ever the Conservatives won among every single social class.
#ge2019
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75% say the monarchy is important to the future of the country. Highest figure recorded. Up from 66% in 1997.
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The more the public have seen of
@Keir_Starmer
the more they like him - now net positive after a good start as PM.
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We love this episode of Yes Minister so much we use it in our training. And now we have tested its precise effects….
#framingmatters
#orderingmatters
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Karl Marx was born 200 years ago. In UK today 49% think socialist ideas are of great value - and the Chinese are VERY KEEN
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10 years ago we went out for a drink. Next year we get married
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Best present from the cats this year - they always buy me something funny but this year it’s excellent. Which to use first in 2024?
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Delighted to announce that after 12 years as CEO of
@IpsosMORI
my replacement is
@KellyIpsosMORI
as I become global CEO of
@Ipsos
next week. She is a brilliant leader and absolutely gets our culture and heritage
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As my climate change denying friends like to say, the climate has always gone in cycles...but not like this..
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NEW In
#Scotland
, 14% satisfied with Boris Johnson - in contrast Nicola Sturgeon gets 72% satisfied. This is Merkel-like....
#SNP
still storming
#postcovid
. Bad for Labour's chances too
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NEW - 54% say govt too fast in unlocking lockdown - only 13% say govt too slow. Public remain very cautious! New Study with
@policyatkings
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NEW Conservative voters twice as like to mention climate change as immigration as a key concern….
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Get jabbed. Already got double vaccinated colleagues who are ill with the latest variant and would be much worse if they hadn’t had the vaccines. Delta variant is having a great summer. Don’t let it get even better
Covid-19: More walk-in vaccine clinics operating this weekend
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My unvaccinated friend’s sister has just had the call from doctors at St Thomas’ saying “expect the worse”. He is in an induced coma with
#covid19
. He thought the pandemic was a scam etc etc
Chris Whitty more-in-sorrow-than-anger:
"One of the most depressing things for doctors, I include myself, is talking to people who have chosen not to get vaccinated because it wasn't convenient at that particular moment, *and you see them wheeled down to intensive care*."
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Largest city in Europe now has a Muslim mayor - a triumph for the diversity that most Londoners - of all races and creeds say they value
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NEW - Most people uncomfortable with going out to bars/restaurants in the great unlocking - and still worried about using public transport ...
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Can anyone explain why there seems to be such an overlap between the anti-vaccine/lockdown stuff and anti semitism and anti-climate change action?
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No disrespect to anyone but one of most common fallacies is that sample size as % of population matters. It rarely does. Instead it mostly is about how representative a sample is eg as long as a huge Vat of soup is mixed well you don’t need to drink the lot to know it’s too salty
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My history degree has been a disaster
Sunak vows to crack down on university degrees that do not improve 'earning potential'
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NEW - only 9% think
#COVID19
rules "too strict" - many more say "NOT STRICT ENOUGH" - 48% Conspiracy mob and QANON are pretty much failing
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NEW only 18% think Britain is heading in the right direction... down from over 40% in April..
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We have the lowest proportion of people back at work in Europe - currently 34% compared to majorities in most EU countries
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