The FPL Kiwi
@theFPLkiwi
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Former member of the analytic illuminati, FPL-modelling 🥝 // Peaked in 21/22 1.8k, MD 61st // 24/25 AE100 qualifier, ID 11699
Joined June 2020
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Pinned Tweet
Threads 📌🐦:
💰 PPM:
📅 Form v Fix:
🗽 Talismans:
📊 Model intro:
⚽️ Player npxG:
🎯 Finishing:
🥝 Team 21/22:
🥝 FPL, FT, FFOD teams & results thread 2021/22 🧦
Sorry the team reveals are late - didn't want to post without exact model projections, which required calculating the probability of the 3rd sub coming on 🎲😅.
Thread seems like a good way to keep everything organised.
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🤯 That Does Not Make Sense
#1
🤯
The Mystery of Points Per Million 🤔
To kick off a series on FPL misconceptions (I hope will be useful for 20/21), first I'll cover "points per million" & the problems with how it's used by the community 👇 (Look for the 🚨 for key points) 🥝.
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@SaeedDiCaprio
@thealtoking
I keep trying to get there and missing - my best guess is they misread as 12.5km and also used an approximation for the conversion between km & miles 🥝.
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📅 Kiwi DGW guessing 💭
DGW guessing is back! Based on what
@BenCrellin
has said below, this is where I am putting the current postponed games in the kiwi model.
I think these are sensible guesses for the most likely case, but it is one of many, many possibilities 👇🥝!
This spreadsheet shows upcoming fixtures in each weekend and midweek.
It also shows:
- The fixtures that have been postponed
- The fixtures that might be postponed
- Teams with Covid outbreaks that caused postponements in GW18
- Potential DGWs and TGWs
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Not sure it affects anyone's plans unless on free hit, but Raphinha appears to have missed training and some are saying it's covid 🤒🥝...
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Obviously can't get everything right but
@FPLHeskibo
took so much stick for the projected league table from the 8th of December - well look who's laughing now 😂🥝:
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Just realised I completely by accident captained Salah when I set my team last night instead of Saka. It's this kind of quick thinking that sets me apart from other managers 👌🥝
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Bruno captain GW2 is a pure "eye test" / "form" pick. There is no basis in the data for it whatsoever, he's not even in the top 5 in the leading FPL model in the community (
@fplreview
), 2.3pts behind the leader (kiwi model agrees) 🥝.
(Salah, Trent, KDB, Mané, Mahrez)
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The kiwi model is now dead 🪦🥝.
I will keep updating this season, but anticipate a drop in quality and a loss of enthusiasm.
Nothing can replace
@StatsBomb
xG, plus I will likely end my FFScout membership as Opta data is now freely available.
Sad times 😞.
⚽️FBref major announcement ⚽️
We are pleased to announce that we are now a partner with Stats Perform Opta!
@StatsPerform
This has allowed us to dramatically expand our coverage of leagues and competitions with advanced stats!
Check this thread out to see what is included 🧵
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@okayokay12321
@CF_Comps9
@RoarKopite
This is a different issue - if you look closely at Dias/Phillips comparison you might see a "%" sign. You'll learn about those when you're older 👍🥝.
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HAHAHAHAHAHA 7-0 🥝
Just realised I completely by accident captained Salah when I set my team last night instead of Saka. It's this kind of quick thinking that sets me apart from other managers 👌🥝
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Thank you everyone for the well wishes!
Absolute madness 🔥📈🥝
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@aritravo_auddy
@OfficialFPL
There are 8.7 million people playing. The way they do it is take the highest power of 2 that is possible, so here 2^23. Then they can do a straight knockout for 23 GWs instead of having any playoffs or qualifiers or whatever 👍🥝.
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Hey all, my xPts are now also integrated into the
@_FPLteam
planner website (with my consent!).
This is an early version of the model but it will be updated each time I upload to github.
Many thanks to Peter for reaching out & sorting this, I hope some of you find it useful 🥝.
🚨 FPL Team has joined Analytics FC 🚨
Using the excellent predicted points model created by
@theFPLkiwi
we now have predicted points data on the site for your current draft and all players.
Includes suggested captains & transfers. Go check it out now at
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@natebrooks23
@bastiaan_brak
@prozakpuppy
@l__i_l__y
@tankslappa
Leave the spoilers in the DMs, people 🙏🥝.
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Pro tip: Injuries are now caused by the form of the opposition 💪🚑🥝.
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🔁 FPL Transfer Odds 🎲
Here are bookies' top reasons to not draft a team yet 👇🥝:
Probability / Team / Player
85% ARS White
67% BVB Hamez
60% MCI Grealish
58% ARS Maddison
58% WHU Johnstone
54% ARS Ramsdale
54% TOT Aarons
52% INT Bellerin
52% WHU Lingard
52% LEI Tarkowski
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Controversial opinion time:
Waiting for more information instead of going for a price change when that move is not your preferred one is one thing. Not doing your actual preferred move and choosing to lose out on price changes seems wild to me 🥝.
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@fpl_tactician
@LetsTalk_FPL
Salah - Mahrez via
@fbref
npxG/90: 0.52 - 0.26
xA/90: 0.21 - 0.30
SCA/90: 3.93 - 4.31
What do you think these numbers aren't capturing that would make it a drastic enough increase for Mane/Firmino to cover Salah 🤔🥝?
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This person is literally just googling other people's graphics and passing them off as original, after pretending to have 3 top 1k finishes in a row.
You can see the watermark on Kane - because it's by someone else!
Stop falling for it 🥝!
Original:
Harry Kane
#cartoon
#Caricature
#THFC
#Spurs
#TottenhamHotspur
#TottenhamFC
#PremierLeague
#ChampionsLeague
#Football
#soccer
prints are at personal ones in box me for prices
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🥝 Kiwi Face Reveal 🤡
To celebrate no milestone in particular, here is a face reveal for all my fans:
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Time to admit to everyone I'm not a real kiwi fruit 🥝
(I am still a New Zealander 🇳🇿)
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Fplreview is just one guy who works a full time job (that isn't this)!
Please try to cut him some slack if you are wanting things that a full-time team would be needed for, we are lucky to get this much (much like
@LiveFPLnet
) 🙇♂️🥝.
@FplStatsdan
Sometimes I get emails that "the team" should do x,y z and it leaves my brain frying 😂
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🤯 An Unexpected Result - Finishing Skill 🥅
Here follows a brief discussion about "finishing skill" 🏁, what it means & how it's used, followed by a short experiment 🔬.
If you think you already know all about it, feel free to skip to the end 😅🔚!
Otherwise, continue 👨🏫🥝...
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Finally made 5k 🎉
Thanks all, been sitting at 4.9 for a while 🙇♂️.
Probably have
@AnalystNik11
to thank for the latest influx even though all I did was show how to use a simple macro 😅.
To celebrate here's a short thread, new followers I promise they're usually better 👇🥝!
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@badnewsalex
@Chris78Williams
@andrewrobertso5
Just don't gamble, just don't drink, just don't yadda yadda - just because no one is forcing you doesn't mean that no harm is being done 🤦♂️🥝.
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@stopabusingdem
@Kvybee_
@Yassin7871
@EcastroK
@DailyFunnys1
@mamoonkhan09
@Manunggalati
@Zapater07519293
@CuriusApe
@hardfootypix
Reading is hard 🥝?
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@SimonR_FPL
@MitchellSt
@rogue_wee
@FplAuto
@FridgeFpl
@JoshuaABull
Fair warning there are very few formulas here, 'twas mostly done/checked by eye 👁️... May I present the 4889-point (!) season 🔢:
Data source
@vaastav05
:
Probably room for improvement, didn't know what budget I'd accumulate 👊🥝.
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@OfficialFPL
Not a fan of rule changes during the season - not sure why you think this helps either 🙄🥝.
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@StatsMerchant
@ftblnl
"Nobody thinks Rodri is overrated" is a wild response to a quote tweet where the original starts "R**** is so overrated" 🥝.
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So did
@fpl_statistics
() and they aren't missing datapoints and they aren't being pushed by someone who is an affiliate for the website and earns money from you signing up.
Having said that, yes! Still useful for us to have another model out there 🥝.
#FPL
Price changes 💰 - it looks like the page below is now the most accurate price change prediction site
Got all 4 changes last night spot on. These screenshots were taken around midnight
Worth bookmarking 👍
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PL Finishing & Penalty Skill 22/23 🥅
My model calculates expected future conversion of both non-penalty shots (i.e. xG-overperformance) & penalties (chance to score) for all players in
#FPL
.
Here are the top and actual pen takers from each club, and best/worst finishers 🎯🥝:
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MID/FWD Classification 💭
Can't answer whether wingers should be FWDs, but can say Havertz, Mbeumo, Jota, Wissa, Cornet & James have played >50% of mins as striker (sole or in front 2), & Ayew, Hwang, Joelinton, Rodrigo, Dennis, Sargent, Jesus, ASM, Joao Pedro & Werner <50% 🥝.
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@LiveFPLnet
He is price-locked afaik as he was red flagged before, courtesy of
@FPLStatus
&
@fpl_statistics
🔒🥝:
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⏪
#FPL
21/22 Season Review 🥝
Luck gave me a great budget (£105.2), fix hit my late WC19 but boosted my FH28 FH30 EV.
Target was top 1k MD, very happy to have smashed it 🍀!
Ranks - Scores
FPL: 1805 - 2683
xG: 2523 - 2646.7
MD: 61 - 2574.5 🎉
Overall data: 225
Luck: 84.5%
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Still seeing a lot of people thinking
@FFH_HQ
have lied, stored your passwords, etc.
Obviously possible, but it's also entirely possible that all the hacker(s) initially gained was emails, then brute force guessed the weakest passwords.
Thought this was more widely known 🥝.
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If you start falsely reporting that FIFA have banned 8 Brazilian players then I am going to start muting.
Brazil have formally requested that the rule be invoked. FIFA still have to actually do it (even if it's 95% likely, it's not done).
The below is how to do it right 👇🥝:
Very much looking like FIFA will try and enforce a ban on Raphinha for not travelling to Brazil. Would affect Liverpool (Alisson etc) this weekend too. What a mess.
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🔢 How/What/Why? - The
#Spreadsheet
🔢
Ever wanted to know everything about the mysterious spreadsheets that modellers use for
#FPL
📊🤔?
In my How/What/Why series I'll investigate each element of my spreadsheet in more detail than you thought you could possibly need 🔍👊🥝...
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How are people still believing this nonsense?
1. Kane's lines do not touch, sorry if your pic is too low-res for you to see that
2. The lines are drawn from the right place, sorry if your pic is too low-res for you to see that
3. Yes they checked the other body parts
🥝
And there you have it. Corruption is rife in the Premier League.
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Maybe
@Twitter
could spend less time showing me random content "based on your likes" and more time showing me the accounts I actually follow 🙄🥝.
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Many results still to be finalised, but looks like 1.8k FPL (small red arrow, no GK 😂), 11th FT (£4k for that team), 20th Superbru (couple late red arrows), top 100 MD rank, winning all draft leagues and the
@CharChatsFooty
ML.
Thanks all, full season review to come later 👊🥝.
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Is Ronaldo a better penalty-taker than Bruno due to sample size?
I've seen this question a lot. I wish people applied this more to non-penalty finishing 😅 ()!
Can you guess the top penalty-taker in the PL according to the 🥝-model (one guess per person)?
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Just realised one missed drag down in my spreadsheet caused it to entirely ignore this season's underlyings for every player - no wonder I've been so low on Salah etc. 🤦♂️😂😭🥝!!
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As I start to open my life back up (i.e. take fewer covid measures), the time I have for a hobby involving sitting in front of a screen is dwindling. I am very conscious that heavy
#FPL
modelling replaced stuff I used to do in person and tbh I prefer doing the stuff in person 🥝!
The kiwi model is now dead 🪦🥝.
I will keep updating this season, but anticipate a drop in quality and a loss of enthusiasm.
Nothing can replace
@StatsBomb
xG, plus I will likely end my FFScout membership as Opta data is now freely available.
Sad times 😞.
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Early season there's no waiting around, if Chilwell looks like rising in price then I'm dropping Gabriel. Was already a pre planned possibility to shift one of him and Estupiñan to Chilwell in GW3.
Don't think the information from waiting beats a price change in this case 🥝.
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Been a crazy journey after the failure to WC26 catapulted me down the
#FanTeam
rankings, but I'm back on the cusp of the top 10 with none of the teams above me sharing my Son captaincy.
I have benefitted from some lucky captaincy over the last 2 weeks, hoping it continues 🤞🥝!
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128-8=120pts
Almost back into the top 1 million
Might have to go back and fill in my team/pts threads up to here because this is a historic week 🥝
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📅 Kiwi Resources 🔢
I have uploaded a file to
@github
containing basic FPL 20/21 data before it is taken down from the
@OfficialFPL
website.
Explanation of what it is useful for below, just thought I'd share in case anyone can benefit from it 👊🥝:
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@Salem_GeorgeJ
@AriDrennen
I feel like I'm accidentally making the wrong point here, but if you read it says it was a donor egg and she's never menstruated so I'm not sure what gametes you're referring to 🥝.
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Thank you to everyone who has DMed me to check in over the last couple of days, I really appreciate it 🙏❤️.
Like many of you I've been busy updating passwords, but I'm otherwise ok. Staying private for a little longer.
Fwiw I have no Hub affiliation, I don't even use it 😅🥝.
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PS:
With this included, this is the longest thread you can tweet in one go (25 tweets) 😮!
Some accounts who (based on a quick search) might find this interesting 🧠:
@FactsFpl
@Prem_Tipster
@FPLChurch
@allaboutfpl
@FFH_HQ
@FPLTIPZ
@fplreview
Feel free to discuss below 👇🥝...
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Travesty imo. Cuts out tactical options just so FPL don't have to address the actual issue, and can still easily derail a season.
As someone holding 2 FHs & a WC I could easily be in a situation where I need to catch price changes before I know which chip I will activate 🙃🥝.
This is great news if true! Great response from FPL to prevent massive damage by hackers 🙏 previously thought 15 transfers is a reasonable limit, 20 is ok too.
P.S. I assume this doesn't apply to WC/FH as both have unlimited transfers by definition
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One requirement I had for doing this was that gambling ads would be removed from the website, which Peter has kindly sorted out.
Please let us know if you continue to see any, or indeed if you see anyone else using my xPts without permission 🥝.
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Bored, can anyone justify to me a single one of these picks?
This is my relatively high ownership players I wouldn't own XV (purely from vibes, I haven't modelled anything yet) 🥝:
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Many people seem confused by why some prominent accounts are speaking out against Ronaldo.
If you are one of them, this is a powerful piece that may help you understand 🥝:
⚠️ TW // sexual violence
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Was sad to hear
@fpl_statistics
struggling recently despite being an invaluable tool for
#FPL
managers. I would also add
@fplgameweek
(live mini leagues) and
@FFStuff3
(scraped data for many different fantasy games) to the list of free websites I use every week 🥝!
Hear some of the best free to use FPL sites I use regularly are struggling as they are not getting the exposure due to Content Creators pushing there own sites.
So a shout out to
@LiveFPLnet
for brilliant live updates & planning.
@fplteam_
for his amazing planning tool &
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Gonna have to see a big move to convince me not to TC Salah -
@fplreview
's models are even more favourable than my own 🧢🧢🧢🥝!
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📉 GW3 Spready projections 📈
Have added non-shot xG to team ratings 📊🙌!
📊 Score predictions
Max GD: 🏙️MCI 2.62 - 0.94 LEI🦊
Min GD: ⚔️SHU 1.18 - 1.19 LEE⚪
🛡️ Clean sheets
High: 😈MUN/🐓TOT 40.6%
Low: 🦊LEI 7.5%
🧤 Save points
High: 🦊Schmeichel 88%
Low: 🔵Kepa 22%
👇🥝
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Did a quick review run immediately on release and it was fairly similar to the analytic-leaning template I've seen on Twitter.
Tweaked some xMins and 7 players changed (other settings the same).
There's still plenty of room for subjectivity 😅🥝.
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Penalties conceded since GW20, that's a new one 🤔🤔🥝.
... However, that number rises to 109 on their right flank which is a 60% increase on what they concede down the middle or their left. Having said that, no team has conceded more penalties than Southampton since GW20 so Kane’s prospects look equally appealing too – if not...
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Built out all the xMins in my model after all this time and I really don't like what it's telling me to do 😂 (no idea where to use the £1.0 either I guess Mahrez to Son for GW3 🤷♂️🥝).
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Everyone who does any modelling or number-crunching from
@fbref
using
@StatsBomb
xG data - be aware that I believe the xG for a penalty has been raised from 0.76 to 0.78 📈.
This effect can be seen in xG vs npxG per90 stats at both team & player level 🕵️♂️🥝.
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@youssefemadeldi
@FPL_Rockstar
@FifaWaled
All Rockstar said is that we're not all Idrissa Gueye. Doesn't look like attacking, harming, or insulting to me, just not supporting. Looks like support is obligatory these days, Rockstar has every right not to support, it's his choice 🥝.
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Every time someone gets picked on on here (whether or not a line is crossed which it sometimes is), the narrative becomes that some hitherto unidentified group of accounts have secretly been scheming to gang up on / target them. Do you really think that happens 🤔🥝?
@lateriser12
I haven’t been around much recently, so not sure where you referencing to. But almost every time I do login, I see one of the community’s well known thread writer being clearly targeted by a pool of certain self proclaimed stats elites who seem to gang up and think they’re cool
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How did AFC end up with the 3.4% roll of the dice in their first non-European season in 25 years?
How did the fixture list look so unfavourable?
We started the season against a promoted side in a new stadium, then we played the CL champs, followed by the EPL champs.
Painful.
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I don't have the spare time to update the model to the new data formats properly, nor do any extra calculations to make up for the lost quality of data.
I'm happy for anyone who likes the new fbref!
Unfortunately for the FPL community it's a step in the wrong direction 🥝.
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🚨 Kiwi Advanced Rank Editing Guide 😏
Ever wanted to trick people into thinking you're actually quite good at a fantasy game, so you don't feel embarrassed at the cold harsh reality?
Friends no longer fooled by MS Paint 🎨🧐?
Say no more, the kiwi is here to help 👇🥝:
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One of the problems with following narratives - they persist even when new data doesn't support them 🥝.
You mean like last season when he was *checks notes* 78th in the league for G/Sh?
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Everyone is still talking about Taiwo Awoniyi, despite Forest having just signed the 🐐. Be surprised if Awoniyi gets a single minute given what he's now up against. Won't be surprised if we see the first £15.0m pricetag 💰🥝.
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📊 Kiwi Projected Premier League 21/22🥝
Since it's both table day & team strength day, thought I'd post both of mine in extended table form (strengths can be inferred from GF&GA).
You can see spread odds in it or go compare to those of
@analytic_footy
@wee_rogue
@FPLFacts_
👌.
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🥝 Kiwi-eating experiment ✔️
For fair comparison I ate 1 kiwi with the "knife & spoon" method & 1 with the "eat the skin" method, having never eaten kiwi skin before.
Honestly not bad, even with a hairy green kiwi - can understand the appeal now
@LetsTalk_FPL
@FPL__Raptor
🙌🥝
@theFPLkiwi
Do you eat kiwis with the skin on or do you cut them open and scoop out the fruit with a teaspoon?
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Fplreview: "I run my own xG models"
Me 😮🥝:
@LetsTalk_FPL
Those aren't Understat, I run my own xG models in the background
I wouldn't be overly cold on Toney- assuming he gets his 3000+ minutes he'll likely end on ~10NPxG + penalties. Not everyone can be as magical as Paddy Bamford!
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🔁 Transfer Odds 2 🎲
1 week
@Skybet
update 🔞🥝:
📈 Movers 📉
⏫38->89% MUN Varane
⏫ *->44% EVE Saint-Maximin
⏬38->12% LIV Saul
⏫ *->35% LEI Kabak
⏫ *->31% ROM Telles
🔼52->71% INT Bellerin
🔼14->33% TOT Ings
🔼33->52% EVE Dumfries
🔼85->✅ ARS White
🔽60->46% MCI Grealish
🔁 FPL Transfer Odds 🎲
Here are bookies' top reasons to not draft a team yet 👇🥝:
Probability / Team / Player
85% ARS White
67% BVB Hamez
60% MCI Grealish
58% ARS Maddison
58% WHU Johnstone
54% ARS Ramsdale
54% TOT Aarons
52% INT Bellerin
52% WHU Lingard
52% LEI Tarkowski
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Not sure about this Kevin De Bruyne guy, seems more like an "assist the assister" type 🏙️🤷♂️🥝...
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🎲 How good are these CS odds?
🚶♂️ A journey...
🔞
#BeGambleAware
Nothing against Focal nor checkthechance (website claims to take bookies' odds & adjust for margin), but the odds could be from anywhere and are 3 days old.
So how good are they, and how do you find out 👇🥝?
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So many people asking how they caught & deleted the people with multiple accounts.
These people literally have all their accounts under the same name & about 20 teams called the same name with the numbers 1-20 at the end all in the same mini league. It's not rocket science 🚀🥝.
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🚨 Forum users even more convinced that
#Raphinha
is out!
Use your own judgement but wouldn't be surprised either way with this one 😬🥝.
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Briefly up top in
@FanTeamOfficial
before de Gea's clean sheet wipeout - hoping the 2nd half of the season can be as lucky as the first 🤞🥝!
⚠️ 🔞
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