Danny Ward is one of the craziest examples of both positive and negative variance I think I’ve ever seen.
GW1-8
Goals Conceded: 22
xG Against: 12.5
Clean sheets: 0
GW9-16
Goals Conceded: 3
xG Against: 8.9
Clean sheets: 6
If you ever needed an example of why xG is good: Antonio Rüdiger has taken 38 shots from outside the box in his time at Chelsea, for a combined total xG of 0.58, and scored 1 of them.
I don’t know when I became such a boring FPL manager but the only move I’m planning right now is Tsimikas->Livramento to hopefully bank 0.1 and to avoid burning a FT.
The Darwin discourse is just weird. The guy has more npxG+xA per 90 than Haaland this season. He's clearly very very good at getting chances, and we know this is the most important predictor of future success for a striker.
This is great news if true! Great response from FPL to prevent massive damage by hackers 🙏 previously thought 15 transfers is a reasonable limit, 20 is ok too.
P.S. I assume this doesn't apply to WC/FH as both have unlimited transfers by definition
@FPLLens
Most players would either shoot first time or take a touch in this position. It's amazing awareness to not only know Mainoo is there, but to put disguise on it so that the defender can't read his intention, and also great execution to place it perfectly into Mainoo's path.
As you are planning for GW2, remember that 1GW isn’t a good sample size to make a judgement on pretty much anything.
I’ve made the mistake of making snap judgements on players/teams at the start of a season and they are almost always completely wrong.
@WGTA_FPL
Haha, gotta love the early season market.
Even by drunk market standards, selling a guy who was considered so essential that literally every team had to have him after 2GWs feels wild!
Raphinha is undoubtably for my money the best value player in the game. His underlyings are that of a 9.0 asset, he’ll play almost every week, and he plays for Bielsa. I expect him to push even further this season.
But I’m kinda okay with not having him for the first 4 fixtures.
Is it me or is this is a pretty normal touch for a top level footballer? He doesn't even kill it, it looks like he miscontrols it a bit and has to readjust!
Jota has played 425 of the last 540 available minutes for Liverpool. He might not start every game, but I think it’s clear now that he’ll play enough to make him ridiculous value at 6.5.
Liverpool and Arsenal not having a double makes FH22 *more* appealing, not less.
The most appealing doubles in GW22 will mainly be teams you do not want to hold in the long run. It can be used to optimise fixtures and swerve City v Chelsea for better double fixtures.
Antonio has only had 3 shots on target and 1.9 xG in the last 10 games.
This includes games against the likes of Villa, Brentford, Everton and Burnley. Is this just fixtures, or is something more going on?
"Tuchel has often used a false-nine system, with Havertz at the tip, and Lukaku’s struggles will raise more questions about his future at Chelsea beyond the summer, when the club will have a new owner"
Predicted Lineup, Chelsea v Bournemouth
This is a tough one. We’ve had a long break and I’m a bit unsure how we’ll set up.
The two main questions are what shape we will play, and which personnel will start.
@fpl_tactician
I don't agree with the implication that Gabriel owners were following the herd. He started 37 games last season, him being rotated for tactical reasons is something unprecedented. I thought him and Saliba were equally nailed and he had higher goal threat making him a better pick.
Can’t understand why there’s any debate about posting scores on Twitter. Surely the whole point is that we talk about the game and our teams?
I want to see my friends on here having great weeks!
I think the expectation that Spurs will run riot against Leeds is perhaps overly optimistic. Since they conceded the 3 against West Ham, Jose’s natural pragmatism has come out and he’s put the handbrake on his team after they take the lead. He’ll be very wary of Leeds threat.
👀 “If that’s the best Serie A has to offer, they should be ashamed of themselves.”
😳 “Based on tonight, they’d finish top half at best in the Premier League.”
Jamie O’Hara & Jason Cundy slams Milan after their
#UCL
defeat to Chelsea
I don't know if anyone needs to hear this but captaining someone other than Haaland was a perfectly fine play for anyone wanting to try and gain rank and what ended up happening is at the extreme end of a range of possible outcomes.
This week is a good example of how using a model (
@fplreview
) has changed the way I play FPL.
In the past I’d have been tempted to try and get through this week with free transfers, but running a few scenarios through Review has shown that using the WC gives me huge benefit.
Another impressive performance from Tino Livramento yesterday, with 3 key passes and 0.84 xA generated.
Owners can consider themselves pretty unfortunate not to get a return.
I really don't get the praise for this Spurs high line with 9 men? Chelsea created 3.5 xG and a better team with more composure would have scored 7 or 8.
Salah has been a midfielder for 5 seasons, I'm not sure why he'd be a forward now.
The positions on the PL site have always been different from FPL positions, nothing to worry about.
I’m still convinced Son cannot keep scoring at such an unsustainable rate. 10 goals from 22 shots and 4.0 xG prior to tonight’s game.
Willing to die on this hill.
The idea that Vardy is a statbuster is one of the weirdest narratives I keep seeing. He's just a guy who's really good at getting good shots.
His overall career non-penalty xG overperformance (since 2017/19) is +1.0, meaning he's scored 1 more goal than xG expects him to.
Reminder that
@fplreview
is about £3 a month and that learning how to use it will help you become better at FPL and get better results far more than paying £15 a month to have someone review your team.
Chelsea to sell Brazilian striker Deivid Washington - whom they bought for €16m last year - to partner club Strasbourg for a little over €21m, according to L'Equipe. Deivid played 28 minutes for
#CFC
This is probably a hot take, but for me blank and double planning is the most stressful and least fun thing about FPL and I'm kinda glad things are going to get easier in that regard.
It's Reece James' and Raheem Sterling's birthdays today, which seems a good excuse to mention the Birthday Paradox, which always blows my mind.
In a group of 23 randomly chosen people there's a 50% chance 2 will share a birthday, and this becomes almost 100% with 60 people! 🤯
Son Heung-Min recorded both his highest xG (2.4) and his highest shots taken (7) of the entire season in the match against Norwich.
More than double his previous highest xG in a single match!
Not sure why there's so much debate on Solanke. He's 5.7 with nice fixtures up until the WC. Enables some nice moves elsewhere. I'd even go as far as to say I wish I'd gone for him on WC!
Nailed 90 mins and penalties are huge in FPL, even if the team is bad.
Excited to join
@Jumpthewave
's excellent initiative of hivemind predictions this season!
As part of this, I'm going to be sharing a short thread before each GW with my thoughts on how Chelsea will line-up!
Here's how I think we're looking for GW1 away to Everton.
1FT, Solanke -> Ferguson
Mo (C) 👑
Almost brought Maguire in earlier, so thought it was best to make my moves and step away from the team.
Good luck all! ✌️
"It's not bullying it's banter" is something I see a lot on here - one thing I would say about it is that "banter" is a two-way thing where both people are in on the joke and enjoying it.
If the person receiving the "banter" is hurt or offended by it, then it's not banter.
GW37, BB Active
Neto -> Verbruggen
Gusto -> Chalobah
Ait Nouri -> Gvardiol
Eze -> Gordon
Watkins -> Isak (-16)
Don't ask how I ended up here. Gonna go away and come back a better manager next season.
My Chelsea predicted lineup vs Crystal Palace for
@Jumpthewave
Interesting one this week. Few different possible configurations and a few injury problems. This one is a little more uncertain than usual for me. I’ll explain why I predict this and why it’s not what it looks like.
GW29.
After a tough week last week, I’ve pulled the trigger on my Wildcard.
I originally planned to hold it until 31 (or later), but I believe I got my moves in 26 and 28 wrong, and it’s better to change course and fix my team than to try and slog on with a flawed squad.
@ffscout_az
It was just supposed to be a gentle joke about the form/xG debates in the community this week. I’m a little surprised at this response as I don’t think we’ve ever had a negative interaction on here
Pep Guardiola on Lionel Messi and if he now gets the feeling that Erling Haaland will score in every game: "The difference, Erling needs maybe all his mates, you know to do it. Unbelievable. Messi had the ability for himself to do it."
I cannot believe people think Raheem Sterling would be anything other than a great signing for Chelsea.
Him, Havertz and Mount with James and Chilwell providing overloads would be so much fun.