Stanley Chao
@stanleychao6
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China business & geopolitical analyst. Lived & worked in China. Columbia, UPenn, UCLA alum. OpEds - SCMP, The Hill, Nikkei Asia, USA Today, The Messenger.
Shanghai
Joined September 2018
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Pinned Tweet
My grandma who lived among ethnic & Chinese Muslims in Tianjin taught me this staple Muslim food- minced lamb w/chives, soy sauce, sesame oil wrapped in soft, finely kneeled dough.
#Muslim
#ChineseCulture
#food
#Cooking
10
5
58
Happy Thanksgiving everybody. In charge of cooking today. Yes, my turkeys have heads on them!
#thanks
#thanksgivingdinner
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8
334
Anecdotally,
#Tesla
booming in Shanghai. Friends, business associates, relatives can't buy one. Long, long wait-list.
#China
#ElectricVehicles
#ElonMusk
10
49
305
A politician's comments about "blowing up" Taiwan Semiconductor if
#China
invades
#Taiwan
shows a lack of understanding of America's role in the chip ecosystem. Please read my OpEd.
#manufacturing
#semiconductor
4
27
281
Spent time with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company colleagues in AZ. Construction, training, hiring, equipment setup all has or will be a slog. Simply limited skill sets for engineers, technicians, and constuction. Looking at 2025/6 for production start and 2030 until
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First, no IP was stolen, Comac worked hand-in-hand with foreign suppliers. Boeing/Airbus also use foreign suppliers. Second it's engineering feat to integrate hundreds of thousands of parts, and thousands of suppliers.
I've seen too hilariously contradictory coping takes by China watchers on China's new plane so far: 1) it's IP theft or 2) China has little merit since it's simply assembling parts from foreign suppliers.
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It's also amazing how everyone on Twitter, over the past 2 years, has suddenly become an expert on
#China
.
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2
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Just got off phone with 2 China factories making dishwashers and copper pipes. They running 24/7 even during
#LunarNewYear
. Can't make enough to fill export orders to both US and EU.
#supplychains
#manufacturing
#China
1
9
47
Can't guarantee much, but I definitely can guarantee
#China
, unequivocally will not attack
#Taiwan
. US generals and Gordon Changs of the world drumming-up warmongering stories to placate own agendas.
The defense of
#Taiwan
is absolutely critical to the defense of
#America
, but deterrence of
#China
’s aggressors is failing: .
@HooverInst
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@GordonGChang
Breaking News- Uncle Chang predicts "China will collapse," again. Spoke to relatives in China who all just finished a hardy breakfast, no food shortages in Shanghai.
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@ZhangTaisu
"China experts" who don't speak Mandarin, don't know what they don't know about China. Once they learn Mandarin, they'll wake up and then know and know what they don't know.
#China
#Chinese
#LANGUAGE
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0
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Talking to Taiwan Semi Mnf Co. contacts at AZ plant site - 1) Production start at earliest 2027/28, 2) Still not enough local talent to fill jobs, 3) Taiwanese employees reluctant to stay long-term, and 4) founder Morris Chang still peeved about "forced" to build a US plant.
5
10
29
@GordonGChang
However, Trump supporters are seeing your true colors. You lost >10K followers in 24 hours.
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Predict we'll see
#Chinese
spending boom similar to what we saw in post-Covid U.S. as Chinese consumers leave ZCovid to travel abroad, eat at restaurants, buy cars, go shopping. Could lift world out of recession.
#china
#chinacovid
8
3
20
China factories making consumer stuff - toys, shoes, electronics, pots and pans - seeing orders tank for Q1, 2023. It's looking like a world recession.
#china
#supplychains
#economy
1
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@BunnyGram8
LOL, turkeys with heads on them shows it fresh. Went to a poultry shop that actually slaughters live turkeys on site. First time trying it.
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@ElbridgeColby
This is crazy talk - Let's tell Taiwan that we (U.S.) know what's best for Taiwan. And if you don't do what we say, we'll punish you. With friends like this, who needs enemies?
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@SRoach_econ
And how about China's red line on Taiwan? Has that been broached yet? Appreciate your thoughts.
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My home made Mantou (馒头), steamed Chinese bread on a lazy Sunday morning. Not as good-looking or tasty as Grandma's.
#China
#Cooking
#chef
#ChineseCulture
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0
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100% agree with
@NeysunM
. Being on the ground in
#China
allows one to take in the nuances, distinguish false conventional wisdoms versus reality, and foster an independent, true view of what China really is and who the Chinese really are.
“One reason why it is good for journalists to stay in a country for a long stint is that it helps breed humility. Assumptions that once appeared iron-clad gather rust as the years roll by. That is true for most places. But it is esp so when covering something as complex as China”
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@LyleJMorris
While having no language skills not prerequisite for understanding China, I give more credence to those that speak Mandarin & lived in China. Conversely, wouldn't be better if "US experts" spoke English?
#China
#languages
#Chinese
0
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@sevendailysins_
@matthew_pines
It’s not that Taiwan Semi is anti-US. As you know US staunch ally of Taiwan. What’s distressing TSMC is lack of chip infrastructure, supply chains, manpower needed to turn AZ into a world-class facility. It simply can’t be done in 2-3 years.
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Speaking with Chinese factories now purposely putting "Made in Xinjiang" on textiles, machine parts, shoes, taking attitude- "We don't give a sh**, & what you gonna do about it?"
#China
#Biden
#XiJinping
,
#Xinjiang
.
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Difficult to move manufacturing out of China when: 1) Companies' R&D is in China, 2) Working with established local suppliers for >20 years, 3) Costs, though rising, still lower than West, and 4) So much manufacturing talent exists in
#China
.
#supplychains
#manufacturing
Decoupling? What decoupling? Since 2017, China's share of world exports has grown, underlining the difficulty the west has reducing its dependence on Chinese factory output. By
@wsj_douglasj
&
@yifanxie
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#johndeere
doing it right in China. Taking apolitical stance, making $$, cooperating with Chinese, protecting its IP, & selling its Cotton Picker CP690 at $800K USD per unit. There are dozens, if not hundreds, in Xinjiang region.
#china
#geopolitics
#manufacturing
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@noahbarkin
Exactly, businesses diversify their markets. Can't just sell cars in Europe and U.S. There's at least 100M Chinese that can afford a $35K Mercedes A-class sedan.
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@LyleJMorris
Follow-up on 1st reply. "China experts" should make effort to learn Mandarin - 2 yrs language course, learn 500 characters, 1000 words. Will go long way in understanding China & Chinese. Don't have to be fluent.
#China
#Chinese
#languages
0
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Please read my OpEd in
@SCMPNews
.
#Biden
is overplaying his hand on chip sanctions against
#China
. He's asking countries - the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan - to give up a lot with little or no returns.
#semiconductor
#chinatech
0
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Continue seeing China factories humming - home furnishings, auto parts, construction equip., electrical components. Chinese companies saying they are having banner year, probably best in 10 years.
#China
#supplychains
#manufacturing
#supplychainmanagement
#manufacturers
0
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@GordonGChang
@SebGorka
The only person talking war is Gordon. I don't hear China, US or other leading nations talking war. Gordon convincing himself that he needs a war to fulfill his agenda that China is evil.
#China
15
1
9
@TroyTeslike
Just called my contacts. Model 3 Standard wanted more as people go back to work, don't want to take public transport.
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China pundits want us to believe China hates US & vice versa. Not true. It's not zero sum game. Strong US means China does well too. Two strong world powers can exist together.
#China
#Business
This is not the news that
#China
wanted to hear, especially in light of its own unemployment crisis. Even though the
#US
was hit with
#coronavirus
later than China, we could recover before they do.
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Having visited Vietnam this year, the country is long way from integrating into world's vastly difficult
#semiconductor
supply chain. Today, even its
#manufacturing
heavily reliant on
#China
for components, engineers, and machinery.
0
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Thanks
@searcherfishing
. With help of great crew, son got his first bluefin, weighed in at 94 pounds. My son and I had a blast.
#fishing
1
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#Huawei
's new Mate60 Pro phone made with indigenous 7nm chips. I wrote in an Nikkei Asia OpEd - "If the U.S. sanctions on Huawei are an indication of the future, then Biden's chip controls are doomed to fail."
#China
#HuaweiMate60Pro
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@LyleJMorris
@BonnieGlaser
This tweet is quite different from your original tweet. I agree with this tweet.
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#Chinese
business contacts saying
#China
's Covid restrictions will be relaxed <2 weeks- less draconian zero policies, less quarantine time for foreign travelers, less constant daily testing. Should boast world economy.
#chinalockdown
#businessgrowth
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@macastel3
100% agree. Add difficulties of competing with locals, dealing with local rules, language barriers & maneuvering already established sales channels, "old buddy" systems. If you can make a buck in China, you can make it anywhere.
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As US-China tensions heats up, MNCs need to change their business model. Developing a "one company, two system" approach, & hiring a chief geopolitical officer will be new norms. Read my article.
@IndustryWeek
#geopolitics
#Biden
#supplychains
#china
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@danieldjz
@GordonGChang
At least get your facts straight when making a snarky comment- there are 1.4 billion people in China, not 1.8. Everybody thinks they're a China expert, even those that never been there.
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@sobrostan
@DailyMail
I've visited maybe 500 factories over my >20 yrs in China, and never saw a minor working in one.
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"China experts" claiming China's economy in turmoil. It's slowing, but not catastrophe. Factory orders way down, but majority breaking even, employees going to part-time but still working, banks extending loans, local governments reducing taxes.
#China
will be fine.
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@DreyerChina
Enlightening article - objective, frank, and to the point. For China to be a world power, it's going to have to stick to the rules, especially in sports. No referees, officials, or judges can be swayed by national interest. Else, why compete, just declare winners.
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@marcaross
@noahbarkin
Great piece - 100% predicted Germany would stick with China. I thought they would waiver with so much US and EU pressure.
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You don't know anything about Concord's spirit. I know, I was born there. Concord has nothing to do with your hate, racial discrimination, warmongering. Don't relate Concord to your personal agendas against China. Concord stands for much better.
#China
#Communists
#Freedom
We will never let
#China
’s
#Communists
take our
#Freedom
. It is time to remember the spirit of Lexington, Concord, and hundreds of other villages and towns where
#Americans
stood their ground.
#1776Spirit
🇺🇸
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@davidpgoldman
I thought the scorpion replied, "Because it's my nature," from movie, "The Crying Game."
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Impossible for
#Germany
to decouple from
#China
. China's manufacturing prowess was built on German skill and knowhow -
#BMW
, Volkswagen, Siemens, Bosch- all have major major operations in China.
#ScholzChina
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Spoke to 3 Wuhan factories: 1) getting back to normal, 2) 40-60% staff returning, 3) quarantines being lifted, 4) logistics moving in/out of city, 5) possibly 100% by April end.
#China
#Wuhan
#COVID19China
1
3
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"Xi's been arrested!" Epoch Times, Jennifer Zheng, Gordon Chang all sensationalizing the rumors as if it was fact. Nothing is going on in Beijing! A normal Saturday.
#China
#XiJingping
#PLA
military vehicles heading to
#Beijing
on Sep 22. Starting from Huanlai County near Beijing & ending in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, entire procession as long as 80 KM. Meanwhile, rumor has it that
#XiJinping
was under arrest after
#CCP
seniors removed him as head of PLA
1K
6K
14K
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@shaunrein
Yes, indeed. I've been working with my consulting clients on these strategic changes for past 5 years. It appears we're heading towards a bifurcated trading/financial world, one controlled by US/NATO and other by. maybe Russia/India/China and EU split 70-30%.
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Speaking to my Chinese colleagues, top 3 reasons (not in any order) for wanting
#HuaweiMate60Pro
: 1) Sense of national pride that its 100% indigenously made, 2) Snubbing US led trade war, and 3) It's cool, especially camera features and satellite communications.
#China
#Huawei
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China factories telling me worldwide demand for goods gone down considerably. I'd say pandemic "pent-up" demand has subsided. Expect normalcy, inflation down, & high-demand items (bikes, autos) in "better" shape.
#China
#SupplyChains
0
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Speaking to some ministry officials, it's not Tai being a woman that should worry her, it's being of Chinese ancestry. Many Chinese see her as a "traitor," or a "Benedict Arnold."
#China
Tai to CNBC’s Kayla Tausche who asked if she feared Chinese won’t take her seriously because she is a woman. “You don’t have a Chinese mother, “ she laughed. “ I don’t fear Chinese cultural norms.”
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IF
#China
can get out of
#ZeroCovid
unscathed, it's over 800M middle-class consumers can possibly lift the world of out an economic slump. Chinese tourists alone make up over 35% of Japan's annual tourism $$.
#ZeroCovidChina
#chinalockdown
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6
@goldkorn
@jmzbeijing
Great read. I know James personally - he's gives great analysis, doesn't hold back, and tells it like it is. Most of all, he lives and works in China, unlike many of the so-called China analysts that either have never been to China or don't know the "real" China.
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@jawad_hash
Branding. People I asked want the best- Tesla. Foreign-brand, high-quality, image the EV portrays and of course the CEO Elon Musk. He's mega famous in Shanghai.
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@kevincarrico
Xi meets Newsome and he's seen as "desperate." Xi doesn't meet Newsome and he's perceived as "arrogant." I guess if someone hates China, he'll find any means to disparage the country.
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Nothing like fresh caught fish. Steamed then doused with hot oil, green onions, ginger, garlic, and fish sauce.
#fishing
#Cooking
#chinesefood
0
1
6
Already seeing commodity prices dropping in China- lumber, copper, plastics, steel, etc. - as China factory orders drop off sharply after Aug/Sept. Inflation should drop by Q4
#China
#supplychains
#manufacturing
#inflation
0
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Expect
#China
to accelerate its commercial cross-border digital yuan wallet now testing in Hong Kong. Singapore next,
#Russia
after that? China also increasing scalability of its
#SWIFT
-equivalent CIPS yuan-based banking system.
#DigitalCurrency
0
1
7
As I've been writing, China's threats to US not
#Taiwan
invasion,
#TikTok
or semiconductor chips, it's
#China
's digital yuan & ability to skirt sanctions & create 2nd reserve currency.
#DigitalCurrency
0
1
5
@GordonGChang
Ha ha, Uncle Chang warns us all not to believe the very news outlet he writes for. Funny.
1
0
5
Reported
#Huawei
's new phone - Mate 60 Pro - uses domestically-made 7nm chips. As I wrote sanctions won't work as China sits in better position with an already 30+ years head start in chipmaking.
#manufacturing
#semiconductors
0
0
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#China
's back in business: It saw 2.1% growth in 2020, an almost unbelievable feat given an economy that was shut down for nearly six months, and 2021 growth is projected to reach 7.9%
@stanleychao6
0
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Spoke at UCLA MBA, Professor
@jnickelsburg
int'l economic class- China business, supply chains and what companies should expect next 5-10 years. Great class, great questions.
#China
@UCLAanderson
#business
1
2
5
Uncle Chang wants US companies to align "American values" when doing business. OK, no sales to China, Russia, Middle East, most of Africa, half of South America. How many American jobs would be lost?
#China
#US
#Biden
#Trump
It’s high time corporate
#America
align its values with those of
#Americans
.
#China
#CCP
#CCPChina
@RadioGaffney
@frankgaffney
@c5hardtop1999
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I don't know what it is, but something so rewarding about growing your own fruits and vegetables. And tastes better than grocery bought.
#Garden
#VEGETABLES
#fruits
#farming
0
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5
Working with $100M US company to setup independent Chinese company in China that has zero ties with US parent. This is the future as China-US bifurcation continues.
#China
#US
#Biden
#geopolitics
0
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@eefjerammeloo
100% agree. Like going back in time. The people are so real, kind, ambivalent to what's going on in the world. Makes me realize what's important in life - family.
0
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Take out Russian war, COVID, I think we are in extended period of inflationary pressure due to US-China trade war, & end of "cheap stuff from China" as
#China
middle class hungers for consumer goods.
#inflation
#SupplyChains
1
1
6
@MarkSimonHK
@Michael_Yon
Huh, you do know these are tourists? Older Chinese in their 50's and 60's, happily waving to the camera. Coyotes don't give their "payload" lifejackets.
3
0
6
Spoke to
#China
factories for homeware, sports equip, pet supplies- seeing dip in orders after Feb. Demand off charts post-Covid now going to below average as shoppers settle down.
#manufacturing
#SupplyChainCrisis
0
0
2
@GordonGChang
I'd sure like to talk to Gordon's "friend." I've been doing supply chains for 20 yrs & never heard of a 90-day disruption rule as Gordon alleges. UCLA's MBA program never taught me that.
#China
#onshoring
#ProximityManufacturing
0
0
2
Literally dozens of Congressional bills promoting reshoring of PPE, semiconductors, rare earths, pharma raw materials, etc. None of them will pass. We just don't take
#manufacturing
seriously.
#China
#supplychain
#Biden
0
2
5
I've written 4 OpEds (South China Morning Post, Nikkei Asia, The Messenger) on how US's chip sanctions would not stop
#China
's determination to build indigenous, state-of-the-art chips. It's coming to fruition.
#semiconductors
#HuaweiMate60Pro
0
2
5
0
0
5
#Stamps
give historical perspective on why
#China
sensitive to West's meddling in its internal affairs. US stamps used in US-occupied Shanghai in 1900's - a humiliating period for China and
#Chinese
.
#geopolitics
2
0
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Working with >50
#China
factories, 90% of them will fill backorders by Sept. I don't expect any supply-chain issues related to toys, etc. Only bottleneck will be logistical- not enough cargo ships.
#SupplyChain
#Shipping
#manufacturing
0
1
4
Spoke at Professor
@jnickelsburg
's Int'l Business class this weekend at UCLA's Anderson School of Business. Great students and much thought-provoking discussions on
#China
.
@uclaanderson
#MBA
2
3
5
Happy Lunar New Year!! Thanks Grandpa (爺爺) for the homemade glutinous rice balls (sweet sesame in middle). Took him hours to make. We'll be frying them up tonight for dessert.
#LunarNewYear2022
#ChineseNewYear2022
#China
0
1
4
Goldman correct that
#China
's exports to US flow via Mexico, Vietnam, India. Met with Chinese companies in Hanoi - import Chinese-made components to Vietnam for final assembly, ship to US, products labeled "made" or "assembled" in Vietnam.
#manufacturing
@asiatimesonline
My latest in Asia Times. Obvious enough, but I haven't seen it reported accurately elsewhere.
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0
0
5
#China
"experts" concerned what items China won't sell to US - rare earths, solar, materials - in light of semiconductor sanctions. I'm worried what China won't buy from US - 737s, earth-moving equipment, commodities, consumerables, etc.
#Biden
#XiJingping
1
4
4
China's
#nonfungibletokens
and
#Cryptocurency
market will be on hold until central bank-backed digital currency (e-CNY) gets up and running so China can track money trail. Maybe another 5-6 years.
#China
#Bitcoin
0
0
2
Speaking to >20 factories daily. Impossible to make blanket statement about
#China
's
#supplychains
. Depends on industry, factories' locations & sizes, importance of product. Some great shape, some not good shape.
#Chinese
#manufacturing
0
0
5
@GordonGChang
@newsmax
Gordon loves inflating his talents - not only does he claim to be an China expert, but a military strategist, virologist, epidemiologist, successful businessman, manufacturer, Korea/Japan/Asia/European analyst, farmer, and genealogist. Truly a man of many talents.
1
0
3
"The proof's in the pudding." China's cardboard packaging manufacturers are my pudding. Their orders for 2023, Q1 are WAY WAY below pre-COVID numbers. Welcome recession into the new year.
#recession
#SupplyChains
#China
#economy
0
1
4
@GordonGChang
Impossible to make blanket statement about
#China
's
#supplychains
. Depends on industry, factories' locations & sizes, importance of product. Some great shape, some not good shape.
#Chinese
#manufacturing
1
0
5
#Beijing
testing
#digitalcurrency
ATMs. 1) Easier for Beijingers to accept change, 2) Beijing first for salaries paid in digital, 3) preparing for Olympics soft launch, 4)
#China
central bank can control message better in Beijing.
#Bitcoin
1
0
3
#China
factories I deal with are back to normal production modes- no shortages of raw materials with prices dropping, electricity outages fewer. Fully expect inflation to be controlled by Q2.
#inflation
#supplychain
0
1
3