Marco Castelli
@macastel3
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Shanghai based. Commerce from China. Canton Fair Xtra events organiser. @cantonfairxtra
Shanghai
Joined March 2008
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Visited this factory in China.
Before they needed 10 people, now only one is in charge🤦♂️
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2022: one of the worst year in my life in China.
Two months of lockdown for nothing (got Covid anyway)
Before the propaganda will turn it, into a great success story of Chinese government, please don’t forget we witnessed one of the worst pages in modern history - remember 👇
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We are entering soon year 4 of Covid.
The world is open and living (almost) normal life.
Here in China still stubbornly keep on building quarantine camps.
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Someone must explain me why China can still ask for negative Covid test to enter the country (after 3 yrs humiliating passengers with prison quarantine) and it is normal.
But if a foreign country asks for a test to Chinese passengers then it is: useless, political and racist…
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Me, running a retail business in Shanghai with Covid 0 👇👇
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Last two weeks of my life in Shanghai:
- daughters school closed for 7 days
- our building locked today
I won’t let some bureaucrat ruin our life. This is too much.
I can make money in Europe as well.
That’s it
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I am a retailer in Shanghai.
In the last 3 years:
- 2020 lost 6 months
- 2021 open all year but with many logistical problems/delays
- 2022 on-off lockdowns
Tell me how it’s possible to run a business in this country…
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RIP Anfu Road Shanghai
Today they killed the most hipster streets of China (like a Carnaby St. in London).
It is near the epicenter of protests.
We opened our shop 5 yrs ago and contributed to grow it into a modern fashion street.
Look what they did…..👇
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So my iphone now is stuck in an endless bootloop. Can't turn it on!
I want to go to Shanghai Apple store, but my green code is on the phone, and i can't access the code cause phone is stuck....
I can only live on the borders of society.
If this is our future...REALLY SCARY!
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Tonight there was a protest in central Shanghai, a vigil turned into chants against the government and Covid 0.
Young people now can see the rest of the world can move freely, so they realize there is something wrong in Covid 0.
Unfortunately i expect more crackdowns. Sadly
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Chinese manufacturer BYD only hit with 17.4% duty in EU.
This is a wellcome gift for BYD.
Expect BYD to dominate European electric cars market within 10 years.
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Many Chinese complain about distorted Western media.
What they don't understand is:
1) China closed for 3 years
2) few VISA to press
3) journos living here are harassed
4) most expat have left China for good
5) no open internet
Not incentive to tell a good story, right?
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Another day another lockdown!
Now all schools in Shanghai are closed for another week.
This is totally out of control and irresponsible behavior to punish young generations.
Totally impossible to live in China
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Anfu road Shanghai, the fashion street of China where we have an Italian fashion shop.
We gave our little contribution to raise the quality level and diversity, with hard work and passion in the last 5 years…
How it started: How it ended:
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3 years wasted on building quarantine camps, testing sites, employing millions of people just to lock down others and the number of ICUs in hospitals in China is less than Mongolia.
Reopening will be tough without investing in hospitals infrastructures.
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Chinese CDC officially declared that 80% of population has had Omicron.
It means 1.1 billions people had Covid in the last month.
Mortality rate for lighter Omicron is 0.3% of infected (in all the world).
So this means at least 3.3 million deaths in the last 30 days in China.
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Navigating "Chinese factory language" isn't easy.
Here's a helpful guide I put together:
"We will try our best to ship..."= not gonna happen
"Let me ask my boss for a discount"=price will not change
"Let me check with my team" = Not possible to produce
"Sure, no problem
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Today they start to install surveillance cameras at the door of every shop in Shanghai.
Officially is to check that the green code is scanned, but once you have cameras you can use AI for many purposes.
This means Covid 0 is not ending soon and who knows what comes next…
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So now Maersk has given up on Red Sea.
If nobody intervenes, we lose Suez Canal and we are back to 100 years ago navigation 🤦♂️
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Talked to different foreign managers in multinational companies in Shanghai.
Same comment: China has destroyed all the goodwill built in 2 decades, in the last 12 months with erratic Covid management, showing the real face.
Once you lose trust, it’s really difficult to regain.
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I remember a foreigner neighbor praising Covid 0 policy last March before the big lockdown in Shanghai and how great was living in China while rest of the world suffered with cases, etc etc.
After lockdown started he and his family left China and I haven’t seen them since…..
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The vessel in the picture below is a ro-ro ship: large cargo ships designed to carry wheeled cargo, especially electric vehicles (EV).
Typically four to six of these ships used to be built worldwide every year.
But for 2023 China has ordered sixty car carriers, and another
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As a foreigner in China you know that you can live here only for a limited time.
You are never be totally integrated and at one point you must leave.
Nobody is dreaming to retire here.
Better to start planning exit earlier than later…
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Mass exodus from Shanghai.
Most are probably people going back to their hometown after 2 months without job and salary.
For example there are more than 20.000 restaurants in Shanghai that have been closed for two months.
Service economy decimated.
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Without smartphones all this mess of pandemic and Covid 0 controls would have never happened.
Not later than 10 years ago, we wouldn’t have had all this: green codes, contact tracing and related lockdowns.
All been enabled by technology mass diffusion….
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I feel like China is on another planet.
While millions of people are locked due to Covid 0 policy, the rest of the world is living a normal life, even having fun in stadium without masks!
See World Cup now 👇
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For those who plan to stay In Shanghai for the next 2-3 years here is our future:
a) lockdown every month
b) tests every 2 days
c) visit Covid camp at least once a year for 15 days
d) no traveling overseas (or extremely difficult and expensive + risky)
Be prepared. I told you…
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EU 🇪🇺sales to US 🇺🇸 530 bn
EU 🇪🇺sales to China 🇨🇳 230 bn
So we give up our biggest customer to follow Monsieur Macron?🤌🤌🤌
Macron: Europe should not depend on the US and the dollar
Europe has become more dependent on the United States in recent years, but it must strengthen its strategic autonomy and not depend on the extraterritoriality of the dollar. This was stated by French President Emmanuel
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Chinese government wants to ban Apple to reciprocate Huawei ban in US.
What they don’t realize is:
1) Chinese love Apple / Americans don’t care of Huawei
2) Apple employs hundreds of thousands of young Chinese in areas of high unemployment
I call it a self boycott 🤦♂️
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In our shop in Shanghai, only this week, 6 different foreign customers announced they are leaving China between now and next June.
On top of the tens of tens that already left….
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A foreign friend is trying to sell his apartment in Shanghai.
It’s in a top building, high end neighborhood. Don’t know the price but guess in the millions.
He hasn’t received an offer in months even after few reductions.
Market is frozen, so he rented out in the meantime.
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Traveling to China for business has become really complicated for first timers: download WeChat+Alipay, connect with credit cards, download DiDi for taxis.
If you don’t have a credit card don’t even try to enter the country, cash is almost useless.
Tourists? Who dares to come..
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Most foreigners who moved to China as expat stay 3 to 5 years max.
Those that stay longer:
1) have own business;
2) marry with a local;
3) can’t get job elsewhere at same conditions
Of those 3 groups above, nobody plans to retire in China.
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So it seems that China will impose tariffs on European dairy, pork and potentially other food products.
This is the retaliation for the EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars.
Truth is, China has more to lose than EU, since it exports more than it imports.
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The perils of living in a communist country:
“China to set annual salary cap for those that work in finance”
The brightest talents obviously will leave the country or will start their own business to make money.
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China is banning all tutoring activities!
I have two kids in Shanghai schools and I can see that all their Chinese classmates have multiple extra classes everyday especially during weekends!
I personally am against tutoring unless really needed to catch up with a subject. For
Starting Oct. 15th, China will ban all academic tutoring, including 1-on-1 tutoring.
Will update people on how this is carried out as several nephews/nieces are taking the high school entrance test next year.
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When I’m in China within the great firewall, I can easily estimate a loss of 40-60 minutes of productivity everyday.
Slow uploading of websites, apps, download of emails, files, drawings.
And I don’t do heavy files.
Great Firewall increases digital divide and reduces GDP
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If you live in China and have to decide whether to stay or go,
ask yourself 2 questions:
- can I emotionally live under the stress of lockdown + quarantine?
- do I make more money here than in another place?
This situation won’t change for next 2-3 yrs….possibly more.
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Yesterday, China Q1 growth was reported at a staggering 5.3%! Wow booming times!
Today LVMH reports -6% sales in China.
What's going on?
If you follow me (you should) I said well in advance that Q1 was a bloodbath for Chinese consumers economy.
Even GDP numbers are true, it
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A Chinese classmate of my daughter (14 yrs old) said, in perfect english with American accent: i am a capitalist at heart, but communist in the brain!
This dichotomy shows the state of confusion in today's Chinese society.
On one hand the lure and flashy symbols of capitalism,
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During Shanghai lockdown, I wrote on the compound chat that Covid 0 was useless as the virus will come back soon.
Some Chinese neighbor told me to leave China and that they were proud to fight a war against the virus.
I wonder how they feel now they lost a useless war…
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That’s why I don’t travel in China during holidays 🤦♂️👇
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90% of Chinese are still wearing a mask, even outdoor.
Yet, according to CDC more than 80% of the population has been infected in the last 45 days.
We can conclude that masks are useless.
Do we all agree on this?
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Interesting list of the American businesses that failed in China.
Nevertheless there are notable successes too: Apple, Starbucks, Tesla.
Any other I missed?
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This guy is about to lose his multi millions package and I feel sorry for him.
But, you can’t defend you job playing the freedom of speech card, when TikTok is banned in China.
I’d change argument otherwise is he implying that China is illiberal? 🤦♂️
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10 days ago there was a protest near our shop in Shanghai.
The most peaceful and cutest protest I’ve seen in my life (flowers and chants).
Since then they boarded the road with blue barriers and police (100+).
Sale are down 90%
Hundreds of people will lose job soon
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Been saying for long time that consumers economy in China is in a free fall.
Not shocked to see the top jewelry retailers sales -26%.
Not even gold is spared
The country is in full recession.
Only certain sectors still resilient (ex: export)
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I have a shop in one of the most popular street in Shanghai.
All the retailers I talk to, have their business down compared to last year.
Chinese are not spending.
I think 2023 will be even worse.
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Finally spotted a new Xiaomi electric car in Shanghai.
What do you notice?
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Signs of the times: a dismantled Renault dealership.👇👇
Middle foreign brands that once pioneered Chinese auto market are leaving.
Only foreign luxury cars have a chance, as they give status to the owners.
Rest of market will be local brands.
China dream is over.
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China must make a choice NOW:
1) let the contagion spread, suffer huge contagion for 6-8 months and then restart growth
2) keep Covid 0 policy, slowly destroy economy and delay big contagion later (after another 2 or 3 years)
No other way
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Just one day after everyone went euphoric for quarantine reduction from 10 days to 8, this morning we got a surprise visit at our shop.
They come to install camera at the door of all the shops including mine.
For those who think China is reopening soon…..👇👇
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If you buy from Chinese factories, especially the smaller one, don't be afraid to call everyday to ask about your products.
Even 2-3 minutes calls are enough. Use wechat or call directly on their mobile.
In critical times call on Sat/Sunday too.
No shame, it's normal here
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There are 25 mil people living in Shanghai. Every 3 days we must have a Covid test.
This means about 7 mil tests/day (estimated).
Est. cost is 4 rmb=28 mil rmb day=4 mil USD/day.
This more than 1 bn dollars a year cost for Shanghai gov.
How long can be sustainable?
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The sudden ‘reopening’ in China has created a new category of people: the nostalgic of lockdown.
As infections spread, these people are self locking at home, avoid public spaces, only order online.
Waiting for government to tell them what do, they feel lost, without guide.
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Just back to Italy for a summer break:
- internet is fast (easy compared to fire walled China)
- no matter what you read of economic crisis, demographic collapse etc, everyone is leaving for the weekend
- food quality and related culture is unimaginable in other countries
-
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China used to be a great place to start business for foreign entrepreneurs who came from all over the world.
After 3 yrs of Covid 0, this is all gone.
It’s a big loss for innovation, diversity and more international lifestyle for local consumers.
What a pity
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EU buys from China 620 bn, growing like crazy, but sells to 🇨🇳 only 240 bn, flat for many years.
Who would you think has more leverage?
In real world, the seller would travel to the big customers and do whatever to please them.
Here 👇 exact opposite 🤦♂️
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How to make 100.000 usd/year net, in rural China using automation.
My friend in Shandong province makes 100k usd in his pocket just with this laser cutting machine.
It cuts metal sheets 24/7 run by 2 ladies. Machine costs usd 30k.
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The last 30 days of 2022 in China have been crazy.
It all started with protests right in front of our Shanghai shop (partly contributed to end Covid 0 policy), followed next day by the closure of the street that almost killed our business.
Then reopening and we all got Covid!
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In 2004 I opened my own furniture factory in Guangzhou.
I had a local GM who hired all his friends and after one year he built his own side factory using my money to buy his stock..
I had to fire him and 50 of his own people. At peak we had 80.
Wild times in China...😱
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After the protests of yesterday night in Shanghai, police in full force to make sure won’t happen again……
I expect big crackdown
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China Q1 GDP out: +5.3%!
GDP statistics never disappoints, looks the economy is booming.
Maybe i live in the wrong area (central Shanghai) or sector or we speak with the wrong people (C-level managers), but i don't see all euphoria and boom times.
But, who am i to know?
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Almost 24 hrs using internet without VPN and you realize how much time we waste in China waiting for apps or websites to upload.
I think China is losing out in innovation by closing to the world. Maybe a few points of GDP lost long term.
All self inflicted (the West thanks)
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I just confirmed orders for our Shanghai shop for next Spring/Summer!
I am taking a big gamble that will be business as usual and no big lockdowns/protests disruptions!
If i am right i am genius; if not i am broke!
Let's hope!🤞
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At EURO 2024 of the 13 officials sponsors, 5 are Chinese:
- Hisense (appliances)
- Vivo (mob phones)
- BYD (cars)
- Aliexpress (ecom)
- Alipay+ (cross border pay)
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Covid 0 in China almost bankrupted the country.
The President decided to abruptly reopen, without any preparation, but conveniently after the October Congress when he secured a life mandate.
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Yesterday we said goodbye to at least 10 foreigners (family included) that are leaving Shanghai for good.
Senior executives for international corporations with substantial packages that leave empty rented apartments, schools, taxes, personal expenses, etc.
All tired of Shanghai
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This is top communication: must be taught in all political science classes!
Complaining about freedom of speech and competition on a platform,X, using VPN to bypass the their own law (thus being unlawful).
Top level!
The
#TikTok
bill passed by the US House of Representatives puts the US on the wrong side of the principles of fair competition and international trade rules.
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Chinese government need to change the rules immediately.
How is it possible that foreigners cannot stay in hotels in 2024🤦♂️?
Once you get a Visa to enter the country what’s the problem?
I’ve been myself refused in hotels, even in central Beijing….
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10 Countries With The Best Quality Of Life For Expats:
1.🇪🇸 Spain
2.🇹🇼 Taiwan
3.🇫🇮 Finland
4.🇦🇪 UAE
5.🇦🇹 Austria
6.🇸🇬 Singapore
7.🇵🇹 Portugal
8.🇨🇭 Switzerland
9.🇱🇺 Luxembourg
10.🇩🇰 Denmark
(InterNations, Expat Insider 2023)
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Even smaller factories in China are fully embracing robots and automation.
That’s why I say it’s still competitive to buy from China.
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Shanghai no?
Surveillance cameras per 1,000 inhabitants
🇨🇳Beijing: 372.80
🇮🇳Indore: 62.52
🇮🇳Hyderabad: 41.80
🇮🇳Delhi: 26.70
🇮🇳Chennai: 24.53
🇬🇧London: 13.35
🇹🇷Istanbul: 6.97
🇺🇸New York City: 6.87
🇩🇪Berlin: 6.24
🇫🇷Paris: 4.04
🇨🇦Toronto: 3.05
🇯🇵Tokyo: 1.06
(Comparitech, 2022)
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In China we will see peak Covid cases in 2023/2024. We are just beginning
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Foreign infiltrated forces in action on Anfu Road this morning…..🎅🏻
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The virus we have now is the same we had in March. It was already milder.
We were locked at home for 2 months, our business shut while paying for expenses.
It is now certified that it was totally useless
Lots of suffering, economic disruption for nothing.
We shouldn’t forget
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Today went to shop at ALDI in Shanghai.
Only 3 weeks ago i wouldn’t even have thought about it, as I could have risked to be locked at home for 7 days for a closed contact.
What has changed? Nothing scientific, just politics……
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Ferrari sales in China are down a whopping 20% in Q1.
What do Chinese rich know, that we don't?
With a booming economy growing at a 5.3% you'd expect ultra rich buy super cars.
Why i think it's an indicator of something deeper?
Because the usual objections don't apply
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Landed in Italy.
Coming from China first thing you notice is the speed of internet.
It’s incredible they are self boycotting their companies with the great firewall and having their intranet.
Using VPN to bypass the intranet slows the productivity.
A few GDP points lost.
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RIP TIKTOK USA:
Bill to force TikTok to divest from parent company ByteDance has just passed 79-18 in the Senate!
Basically Bytedance (Chinese owner of TT) has one year to divest TikTok US.
Here is what i think will happen, if i know the Chinese a bit:
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My thought is for those poor souls that still have to endure 8 days of quarantine, before entering the most infected country in the world that is now China…��to protect who?
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This is the stretch of road where we have our shop. Near to the epicenter of the Shanghai protests.
It has been walled in this indecent way.
How we supposed to conduct business?
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We are raising two daughters in Shanghai and it’s incredibly difficult to get them to hang out with Chinese kids.
Most are always busy with extracurricular activities until late at night 🤦♂️, no free time.
I feel they are missing a big part of life and will regret in future
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My gym in Shanghai just went bankrupt, changed name overnight and now they want to charge me a new fee although the old one still had still one year validity (and paid).
This is a gym that was opened for as long as i can remember.
Sign of the times...
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This is the view from our shop this morning.
We are close to the location of the protests in Shanghai.
Following a well known playbook Chinese government builds walls.
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So the House voted 352 vs 65 in favour of TikTok ban (or sale).
Next the proposal needs to pass the Senate.
If it passes, it will be a legal battle for years.
When China banned FB, Google, X etc. that was it.
No legal battles.
That's the difference.
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Using internet in China with VPN is like driving a car with hand brake on constantly.
I have increased my productivity 10X since i am out of the firewall.
Chinese government is incredibly damaging their own businesses (export). It costs a few GDP points.
Western cos thank
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I went out and I forgot the telephone.
I quickly realized that I can’t do anything and go anywhere.
Really scary thought, you can be annihilated with a click.
The last step is eliminating cash.
After that we lose all.
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Not everyone knows, but in China, up until 1994, foreigners could only officially buy one currency: FEC (foreign exchange certificates).
It was a parallel currency only for foreigners: we could not officially buy YUAN at the bank; only in black market.
I used FEC in 1993.
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I don’t buy the ‘reopening’ slogan. It’s only marketing…
In Shanghai we are in a situation worse than March ‘22 (before big lockdown).
We have more cases, schools closings and people locked than before.
Covid 0 was useless. That’s it.
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Back to China after 4 days in Europe.
Considerations:
- electric cars can develop quickly in big cities of China for 3 main reasons:
1) cheap cars and free car plate
2) electricity very cheap (EU is almost 10x price)
3) distances too big so people use train/air to travel
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Opening China during flu season and just before mass travel for Chinese New Year could cause the perfect storm.
Soon families will reunite and young people will meet older relatives.
There is potential for a disaster, with peak in February.
Genius move or irresponsible?
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@StephenMcDonell
It’s incredible they have to escape from workplace like prisoners….Apple has nothing to say?
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So someone flies in from overseas to China, spends 8 days in quarantine, then goes out and gets Covid from Chinese people.
It’s time to remove inbound quarantine as it’s totally illogical now.
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