Pleased to publish a new @AsiaPolicy CCA paper on Chinese views of escalation and crisis management. I examine PLA views of “effective control” (有效控制) and implications for U.S.-China security dynamics. A short 🧵on my findings.

By @TheEconomist’s count, 70 countries have now officially endorsed both China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and, just as crucially, that China is entitled to pursue “all” efforts to achieve unification, without specifying that those efforts should be peaceful. Moreover, the vast majority of those countries have adopted that new wording in the past 18 months, after a Chinese diplomatic offensive across the global south. This is the result of China's assiduous efforts at cultivating relations with the Global South.

PLA targets top brass in loyalty education campaign after high-level purges

This new regulation is likely a response to rampant corruption and mismanagement within the PLA procurement system. /END

@tshugart3 Unclear to me too. But the PLA and CCP thinks it needs a doomsday fortress for some reason.

Coming to a cross-Strait conflict near you - drones fighting drones, and autonomous systems fighting on the front lines.

@DrPaulyDeSantis See pg 10-11.

They did, but poorly constructed and couldn’t conduct adequate real-time C2 functions. Thus they dispersed all central leaders throughout China and started to ration fuel and water. It was utter chaos. @JosephTorigian and @davidclogan have done some excellent work on this case study.

RT @MatthewFoldi: MASSIVE win for @SecRubio Following his meeting with the Panamanians, the country’s president announced that it will not…

Check out this virtual panel on DeepSeek, moderated by @wstv_lizzi, featuring @AsiaPolicy CCA's newest member, @pstAsiatech, CCA honorary senior fellow on Chinese Technology; Qiheng Chen, CCA affiliated researcher; and Jenny Xiao, partner at Leonis Capital

“We will work with allies and partners to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific by Communist China.” -@SecHegeseth’s first message to the force.

Helpful, just wish it would be more clear. Australia @dfat issues "Statement on Australia’s one-China Policy" -- a rebuttal, of sorts, to a Jan. 13 Australian Financial Review op-ed published by PRC Ambass to Australia, Xiao Qian - in which Amb Xiao said "China’s 'one-China principle' is the fundamental political foundation of China-Australia relations." The key DFAT rebuttal states that "Australia has a one-China policy, as distinct from China’s one-China principle." But, unhelpfully, the DFAT Statement did not state explicitly what is "distinct" from China's "one China Principle" and Australia's "One China Policy." Here is the difference, from the 1972 Joint Communiqué concerning the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between Australia and China: "The Australian Government recognises the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the People's Republic of China....And Australia has a deep and productive unofficial relationship with Taiwan including trade and investment, education, tourism and people-to-people ties. This is consistent with Australia’s one-China policy." This is almost the exact language as the U.S. in its "one China policy" with the PRC, as agreed in the 1972 US-China Shanghai Joint Communique, in which the U.S. "acknowledged" China's position that Taiwan is a province of the PRC, but did not endorse it. One minor but important distinction between the Australian and U.S. "One China Policies" is that America's goes a step further by stating that it "opposes either side unilaterally changing the status quo by force and has consistently stated that any resolution to cross-Strait issues must be done peacefully and with the consent of the people of Taiwan." This is missing the DFAT Statement and the 1972 Joint Communiqué concerning the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between Australia and China So both Australia and United States acknowledges Beijing's position that Taiwan is a province of the PRC, but do not endorse it. But the United States' "one Chia policy" adds an important clause, absent in Australia's, about the "need to resolve cross-Strait issues peacefully and with the consent of the people of Taiwan." /END

China Hainan MSA issues NOTAM for military exercise southeast of Hainan, from Jan. 21-23. Map created by @duandang's NOTAM Visualizer.

@RyanLambertABC Thanks, Ryan!