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TheGodF🅰therKnows

@smantel

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CFA. Ex-sell side analyst. Fundam. research focus. Do more of what is working, less of what isn’t. See what others don’t. https://t.co/0WS5pK8d60

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Joined May 2009
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 hours
$BHAT $0.07 Float 233M Short 3.4M = 1.5% SI FOR THOSE NIMBLE ENOUGH TO BUY UNDER $0.04 (many in our community 👏) THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN A NICE DOUBLE. IF THEY HAVE THE 1 TON OR TONNE (they have referred to both in their filings🙃), WHICH IS A SOLID "IF" (this is a Chinese shitco after all). THEN THEY ARE POTENTIALLY STILL TRADING AT A MEANINGFUL DISCOUNT TO THEIR INTRINSIC VALUE. Using 1 tonne i.e. 1,000 kg = $93.2M Current fully diluted shares outstanding: 495.74 VALUE PER SHARE: $0.19 DISCOUNT TO FV: 63% I CONTINUE TO BE A BUYER UNDER $0.07. At a minimum I believe they will get the stock back above the value per share issued for 1/2 of this purchase i.e. $0.1365. POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 100% POTENTIAL UPSIDE TO FV: 170% This gives no value to their other "businesses" which is likely accurate. I GAVE THIS IDEA TO OUR COMMUNITY AT MUCH LOWER PRICES Feeling left behind? Feel like you are lacking an edge? INVEST IN YOURSELF, MAKE IT YOUR BEST YEAR EVER, YOU DESERVE IT. Consider working together with me and the rest of the @StoryTrading team and community (use discount code: MAKEBANK65, for 65% of your first month, that’s less than $1/day, cancel anytime) to get access to trade & investment ideas ahead of the curve. You will also get: · Daily Pre-Market Prep Video · Daily Trade Alerts & Ongoing Investment Ideas (before X). · Live Trading Sessions · Active Chat Room/Forums · Daily Modified Wheel Put Selling Portfolio Updates · Fully Archived Due Diligence resources from multiple collaborators
@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
7 days
$BHAT $0.043 Float 233M Short 3.4M = 1.5% SI CHINESE SHITCO MONEY LAUNDERING SCHEME? 100%+ UPSIDE POTENTIAL ON VERY NEAR-TERM CATALYST [MONDAY/TUESDAY] [🚨TONS OF RISK HERE – READ BELOW🚨]. KEY CONSIDERATIONS: 1. This is a Chinese Shitco – BHAT was formerly a provider of communications services & a developer of augmented reality interactive games. They have pivoted now into commodity trading & are “aiming to become a leading intelligent commodity trader worldwide.” (Umm, okay. Don’t plan to be around long enough to care if this is true or if they will be successful…) 2. Financials – As at last report (June 30th) BHAT had $2.7M net cash. They reported $13.1M in revenue, $1.1M gross profit & an operating loss of $1.3M, all from diamond trading. 3. Recent Financings – On January 5th issued 55.2M shares @ $0.08 then on January 7th issued 56M shares @ $0.07 then on January 11th issued 78M shares @ $0.055 each time to “institutional purchasers” via Maxim Group. Net proceeds from these sales = $11.6M. 4. Potential NASDAQ Delisting – On September 11th received Minimum Bid Price Deficiency notice (stock price < $1) & given 180 days or until March 5, 2025 to remedy. On January 24th NASDAQ gave BHAT a Delisting Determination citing violation of the Low-Priced Stocks Rule as their stock had traded under $0.10 for 10 consec. days. They were given until January 31 (last Friday) to request an appeal or they would be delisted on February 4th (Tuesday). BHAT said they would request an appeal & that they are “considering all potential options available to regain compliance…. including… a reverse split.” 5. Big Shiny Gold Deal – Trading $13M in diamonds in the 6 mo. ended June looks like the test run for their “big deal” now that they are a “leading intelligent commodity trader worldwide.” In October ‘23 BHAT signed a framework agreement with Rongxin Precious Metal Technology to buy 1 ton (meant tonne?) of gold. On August 28th they announced delivery of 1,000 Kg (1 Tonne) gold with a total price of US$2100/oz. ($66.5M total). On January 27th they issued 248.3M shares to Rongxin @ $0.1365 per share (30% premium to prevailing share price) to “pay off the remaining balance” of $33.9M of this purchase. [BHAT suggests this equates to US$1900/oz so this is for ~500Kg or half the total purchase price.] 3 days later these new shareholders signed a POA granting the voting rights of all of the shares to the CEO of BHAT. If this indeed is “the remaining balance,” this suggests $33.6M had previously been paid but I see no record of either cash or share payments for that in any of the filings to date. As such, if we assume BHAT retains about $1M in operating cash & $12M is then paid out of the proceeds of the equity sales in January, this leaves a payable to Rongxin of $21.6M – call it debt. 6. Potential Net Asset Value (NAV) - So here is where we are at:$1M cash + 1,000 kg of gold worth $90M (@ January 31, 2025 gold price) - $21.6M debt=$69.4M in value / 495.74M shares outstanding=$0.14 in value per share (surprise, surprise, roughly=$0.1365 per share value used for the share payment). This assumes ZERO value for any “business” that BHAT may have which, given all of their “pivots,” seems about right for what I’d be inclined to pay for a Chinese shitco. So why is the stock trading at < $0.045? 1) 3 financings in a row at successively lower prices down to $0.055 that diluted the shares by> 360%. 2) January 24th delisting determination giving them until January 31st to file an appeal or be delisted by February 4th. 3) No press release yet regarding a delisting appeal filed so there is real fear in the market that they will delist on Tuesday. 4) Opacity in the filings [piecing the above together was a chore – few other than “on the spectrum” folks like me will even have bothered]. 5) Shitco discount over the validity of their filings, etc. etc. Call this your “risk discount” … and the RISKS here are REAL. What do I actually believe is going on here? - Straight up money laundering. Rongxin associates likely bought all the shares issued in January with dirty money, BHAT then returns that do them with clean money in payment for the gold (which also likely came from dirty money). BHAT then issues them stock for the rest of the dirty gold. On top of all of this, ~2 billion shares traded post the first share offering up until Friday after market when they announced the “completion” of their gold purchase & the “nearly $25M increase in their book assets” as a result. Who do you think had the comfort to buy up all of these cheap shares in advance of this press release? Given all of the above why do I think there is an opportunity here? 1) Aside from the gold (if it exists) the biggest asset of this shitco is their NASDAQ listing. This has permitted all of their transactions to date. 2) Presumably then the “institutional purchasers” (Rongxin associates?) of BHAT stock sold by Maxim as well as Rongxin who took shares for half the the gold have assurances from the co. that they will continue to have NASDAQ-listed paper. This is also explains why they signed their votes over to the CEO ensuring enough shareholder votes to get a reverse split completed to remain compliant. What do I believe happens next? 1) I fully expect a press release on Monday that they have filed their appeal. (They have reverse split this stock before). This takes the stock back up to the ~$0.14 NAV. A 15% discount to NAV = $0.12 for a 100% return. 2) BHAT issues a bunch more bull shit press releases & they run up the stock in classic Chinese shitco fashion allowing the Rongxin associates to sell their stock at inflated prices & make even more clean money. This is your “100%+ UPSIDE POTENTIAL” mentioned in the header. 🚨TONS OF RISK HERE. 🚨THIS IS A SHITCO. 🚨THIS IS LIKELY A MONEY LAUNDERING SCHEME. 🚨THE RISK OF DELISTING TO OTC IS REAL. 🚨THEIR FILINGS ARE LIKELY FULL OF BULL SHIT. 🚨I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG IN MY INTERPRETATION OF THIS BULL SHIT. 🚨IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLAY, MIND YOUR ALLOCATIONS. I GAVE THIS IDEA TO OUR COMMUNITY AT MUCH LOWER PRICES Feeling left behind? Feel like you are lacking an edge? INVEST IN YOURSELF, MAKE IT YOUR BEST YEAR EVER, YOU DESERVE IT. Come work together with me and the rest of the @StoryTrading team and community (use discount code: MAKEBANK65, for 65% of your first month, that’s less than $1/day, cancel anytime) to get access to trade & investment ideas ahead of the curve. You will also get: · Daily Pre-Market Prep Video · Daily Trade Alerts & Ongoing Investment Ideas (before X). · Live Trading Sessions · Active Chat Room/Forums · Daily Modified Wheel Put Selling Portfolio Updates · Fully Archived Due Diligence resources from multiple collaborators Kudos to these sharp “ahead of the curve” folks: @fttbalways @futuremillion24 @BullishBubba @BullRunz22 @buysellshort @Cameo3D @casenumber69 @CgTrad3s @ChrisGa51159823 @ClickCapital_io @CoachNickMoney @cobrastatus9 @Cowboys55157363 @coxautosupply @cromesleeve @CrossStocks @czrzvm @DaddyGavin2028 @DanielL97864445 @davelm33 @Scott10521 @DaveStockGuy @davinci_kidleo @dbr_says @DDA45262674 @Deborah90015074 @Dehix_Trades @Diacachimbazo @dkeene88 @DocOckCometh @DocSagir @domnoms @DONI1244788 @Doofus49265902 @Dosanjh007T @DougieFreshPick @Dr_Giggles4u @ElSheikh_Ksa @Eng_MinaNashed @Engineertrad @EricWeb73501038 @ex12adventures @F5johns @fahad_aviation @Faith_Trades @Fearles73038218 @fit_koala @FrankieBstock @frankyboyz_ofcl
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
4 hours
$LFVN $17.71 Float 9.9M Short 190K = 1.9% CONGRATS TO ALL OF THOSE WHO NOT ONLY DIDN’T “PANIC SELL” BUT WHO BTFD HERE. ⭐Over the past year the correlation to $HIMS has been ~78%. ⭐$HIMS is up whopping 76% YTD, $LFVN is up only 16.5% ⭐Everything $HIMS said in it’s #superbowl commercial applies also to $LFVN ⭐If you put $HIMS multiples on $LFVN you get $70-$77 target prices.🤔 ⭐There has been no change to analyst forecasts on this name post the qtrly report… still $32.50 average for ~ 60% upside. EVEN USING A CONSERVATIVE EV/S MULTIPLE OF 1.25X I GET TO $26-$27/SHARE FOR 30% UPSIDE. ( $HIMS TRADES @ 4X).
@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
4 days
$LFVN $17.71 Float 9.9M Short 190K = 1.9% BOTTOM LINE: NO REASON TO “PANIC SELL" OVERSOLD: ALL OF THE NEW GLP-1 GUIDANCE GAINS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED, GAP IN CHART NOW FILLED ⭐The profitability guide fell short of expectations (as detailed below) and, being a low float stock with wide spreads, it is experiencing a significant negative after-hours reaction. ⭐Despite the short-term weakness, all metrics, including profitability, are expected to see significant boosts. ⭐I don't anticipate any material target price changes from the analysts. I expect the stock will be defended and will recover from this selling pressure, though it remains disappointing. ⭐The recurring nature of the product and improved margins (as reflected in GM) suggest that once the near-term accelerated incentive compensation for new representatives is resolved (by the end of March), the true trajectory will become apparent. NEGATIVES: ⭐Weakness is mainly due to one-time new product launch costs, some accelerated shipping, and primarily accelerated incentives for new reps that will continue through March. The upcoming quarter is expected to be flat due to inventory stock outs in Nov/Dec, so the higher guidance is more back-end loaded. ⭐MRQ showed commissions and incentive expenses at 48% of revenue compared to 42.1% in the year-ago quarter. In the conference call, it was mentioned this will normalize to around 44% in Fiscal Q4, i.e., within one quarter. The EBITDA guidance of $21-24M on revenue of $235-245M implies margins of 8.6% - 10.2% versus MRQ's 9.6%. International revenue also fell 13.7%. POSITIVES: ⭐Growth metrics are outstanding (y/y revenue +31%, active accounts +23%) and are likely to see further upward revisions. All other metrics, except for commission/incentive expense, are trending positively – G&A as a percentage of revenue is falling, and gross margins are increasing (now over 80%). ⭐Despite the guidance, in the Q&A, management stated that the "flow through to EBITDA" from the revenue increase in the second half of 2025 will be consistent to better than what is currently seen. This implies upside to the 9.6% adjusted EBITDA margin posted in the MRQ. ⭐The company generated significant cash and now holds $21.6M (the same level they were at in 2023 when they issued a special dividend). A special dividend is less likely now as they aim to preserve cash for the transformational GLP-1 product launch, building inventory, brand awareness through increased social media exposure, and new tech tools. They have $19.3M left on their buyback and have a history of returning capital to shareholders. ⭐With increased enrollments (highest in 5 years), active accounts, sales reps, product sales, and subscriptions (the GLP-1 product is boosting overall monthly recurring subscription revenues by "low double digits"), the company expects to meet or exceed its long-term profitability metrics, which are about 25% higher than current. ⭐International revenue is expected to recover with the launch of the GLP-1 product starting in March. ⭐Currently, 80-85% of GLP-1 product sales are standalone, meaning those customers aren't buying other synergistic products in the stack. The company expects cross-selling to improve as they launch more studies showing the synergistic effects of taking multiple supplements together. This is a major marketing push as it significantly lowers customer acquisition costs. Adjusted to calendar year-end valuation metrics, the stock is compelling at a P/E of 17.8x, 0.9x EV/S, and 8.2x EV/EBITDA given the growth and margins. @AryabTweets @AskeladdenTX @badtrader22156 @BanksT80 @Beniam1n_Zhang @BigMonty69 @BobbyKKraft @BreakoutStocks @buysellshort @CapitalShipyard @cashtag_trading @CCM_Brett @ClassicRoy @CoachNickMoney @corporalCocoPuf @DanielZippel @DayTraderWayne @DipFinding @EliteGainzTrade @ETFEnterprises @finitespaceai @GeoInvesting @golfsohard @holiday613 @HotStockLLC @HStockpenny @insider_cyborg @InvestSpecial @itscharliemar @jfineman @JimMiller420 @joinyellowbrick @juancapore @kgswings1 @LongYield @Mahin_Agency @MalMoncrief @MarcJacksonLA @MisterLowRisk @MSmicrocaps @OptionsHawk @pmony5 @pnani456 @Ponkeeeeee @PromotingLife1 @ProTradeIdeas @Rexy1022 @RoaringKittyPar @RodmanM1
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
4 hours
$PBI $8.64 Float: 163M Short 13.4M = 8.2% MR. MARKET CONTINUES TO BE SOUND ASLEEP ON THIS NAME.💤😴 THIS IS WHAT ITS LIKE TO “LOOK A GIFT HORSE IN THE MOUTH.”🎁 I LOOK FORWARD TO A FEW MONTHS FROM RECOUNTING THE MARKET-BEATING RETURNS THAT SAT PLAINLY ON OFFER THIS DAY BEFORE EARNINGS.🤔
@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
$PBI $8.44 Float: 163M Short 13.4M = 8.2% THIS COMPELLING RISK/REWARD, DEEP VALUE STORY IS REFRESHING IN A SEA OF VOLATILE GROWTH/MOMENTUM RECOMMENDED ENTRY PRIOR TO FEB 11TH QUARTERLY REPORT 10 KEY CONSIDERATIONS: 1. New Management Inflection – Kurt Wolf of Hestia Capital (owns ~ 8.7% or 15.8M shares) took control of the BoD in May ’24. Within weeks Lance Rosenzweig was appointed interim CEO. By July $70M of costs reductions had already been realized and a new range of cost cutting targets of $150M-$170M was announced (up from $60-$100M). Its Global E-Commerce (GEC) business was jettisoned to a wind-down entity at a max cost of $150M, saving approx. the same amount annually between net losses & capex. 2. No Growth But FCF Generative Businesses – Remaining businesses: PreSort (~1/3 of rev.) & SendTech (~2/3 of rev.,cloud-based shipping software etc.) while having some potential growth prospects, are best considered stable non-growers at this juncture (I would consider growth here to be “free upside”). Despite this, they produce robust gross and EBIT margins of ~56% and 22%, respectively. Net income in excess of $230M seems attainable for this year ($1.25/share) with robust free cash flow approaching $200M. 3. Shareholder Value Creation Initiatives – With an estimated $450M-$500M in FCF generation expected now through exit ’26, management now has more flexibility than ever to 1) pay down more debt, 2) buy back shares, 3) increase dividends, and 4) jumpstart a strategic pathway to growth. Based on listening to management, this list is roughly in order of what I would expect. 4. Debt Paydown, Cash Optimization & Refi – The co. has been very active here but has a lot of meat left on the bone. Informed analysts suggest the potential for upwards of $80M (> $0.40/share) in incremental income from a combo of variable comp. reductions & int. expenses savings. PBI has outlined a further ~$1.04Bln in term & operating lines presenting refi opportunities. Every 100bps positive delta generates $0.04-$-0.06 in EPS. Addit. opportunities exist to optimize cash & reduce interest expense such as captive lease receivable sales. 5. Key Potential Risk – Despite the well-elucidated points made by many LT investors that its PreSort business is not at risk as it is classified as “market-dominant,” (meaning USPS can apply to the Postal Board for rate increases which in turn boosts margins for pre-sort contractors), there is still chance that PBI’s low 20% EBIT margins in this division could come under the scrutiny. That said, it would take an act of Congress to change the law. PBI is by far the market leader in both scale & technology so they can be the most aggressive on pricing. If this were to happen one would expect their current cadence of taking over business from others that can no longer compete to be accelerated. 6. Earnings Track Record – PBI has a consistent track record of beating on both the top & bottom lines. The recent management change has seen the order of magnitude of these beats increase. The co. reports on Feb 11th after market & recently reiterated its revenue guide of $505-$515M & increased its EBIT range by $5M to above $89M. 7. Capital Structure Considerations & Short Position– Current balance sheet shows ~$479M in cash & equiv., $1,943M debt (inclusive of recent Oaktree note paydown) with an average coupon of ~8.5%. Management has mapped out a plan that could see this further reduced to ~$1,450M by the end of ’26E. Given their close proximity (~$9.50 strike) I have included the 9.1M options & ~6.3M RSUs/PSUs to arrive at a fully diluted number of 197.2M shares outstanding for all of my calculations to add conservatism. Despite over 13M shares short that don’t appear to have an obvious capital structure hedge I don’t ascribe to the short squeeze narratives currently being actively floated. That said, I acknowledge and am pleased to see 6 days-to-cover as an added tailwind to incremental good news. 8. Upcoming Catalysts – Upcoming quarter could beat & raise. Positive updates & outlook regarding the existing businesses.. Further details re. cost cutting & refinancing objectives & timelines. Possible announcement of a share repurchase program, comfort regarding security of their PreSort margins in respect of the new administration/DOGE. (Note: despite Trump’s bluster regarding USPS privatization I agree with the view that the structural inefficiencies, i.e. universal service obligation, make this “a bridge to far.”). Note: DOGE initiatives could result in further upside if, in lieu of outright privatization, they pushed for even more outsourcing in an effort to cut payroll & benefits fat which is USPS’s current cost anchor. 9. Attractive Technicals – PBI has been consolidating in a range between $7-8 for approx. 6 mo. with strong support in the $7-$7.50 range. RSI has only recently picked up reflective of the recent debt paydown & guidance. 10. Attractive Valuation – Using consensus estimates (which are arguably too low) current ‘25E valuations are P/E 7.5X, EV/S 1.5X EV/EBITDA 5X. Cheap on an absolute, relative & historic basis. CONCLUSION: Bold cost cutting execution from the new leadership has finally freed PBI to fully realize the robust earnings & FCF generation capabilities of its businesses. This positions new PBI shareholders to benefit from impressive margins & a historically inexpensive multiple. Just using its 10 year avg. P/E of 12X on a reasonable $1.25 in EPS (some are calling for 20% or more) I can comfortably get to $15 for an ~70% return. Compelling risk/reward as the downside appears limited to $7.25. I GAVE THIS IDEA TO OUR COMMUNITY AT MUCH LOWER PRICES Feeling left behind? Feel like you are lacking an edge? INVEST IN YOURSELF, MAKE IT YOUR BEST YEAR EVER, YOU DESERVE IT. Consider working together with me and the rest of the @StoryTrading team and community (use discount code: MAKEBANK65, for 65% of your first month, that’s less than $1/day, cancel anytime) to get access to trade & investment ideas ahead of the curve. You will also get: · Daily Pre-Market Prep Video · Daily Trade Alerts & Ongoing Investment Ideas (before X). · Live Trading Sessions · Active Chat Room/Forums · Daily Modified Wheel Put Selling Portfolio Updates · Fully Archived Due Diligence resources from multiple collaborators Kudos to these sharp “ahead of the curve” folks: @ProblemSniper @QuantisticAMC @qwert1878698 @redbaronfinance @RhettTrades @RocketPenguin75 @ronaldtgoldman @Russell_A1221 @Rutherford44268 @sadboiintech @SchoolyardPS7 @serenitynowcap @SethAkira @SethCL @SFarringtonBKC @SheddMcGredd @Simply_Sim1 @slime_lizard @SPXNDXTrader @stamford_don @StevenShadduck @StockAflaton @stockplaymaker1 @SuperDuperInvst @SureDividend @ThePPseedsShow @TheRealMilowe @TheRoaringKitty @theShedsLars @TheVoz4Real @TheWolf689 @TidefallCapital @tiffinyfawcett @TigerLineTrades @StockBotty @Tinia616 @TKazmi67 @ToritoBursatil @UnclePennyBagz3 @USstocks_notify @venumadhavgunt7 @VFueg0 @VFXDannyB @violacapital @wabuffo @wallstreetbets @wallstwaves @WOLF_Financial @Yyc81M93127
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
6 hours
Join me and this sharp panel as we chat all things small caps. More individual stock “alpha” in this Spaces than any other! Guaranteed!
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
1 day
RT @WOLF_Financial: Join us on Spaces this Monday at 1 PM EST! Topic: Small Cap Investing SPACE: Co-Hosts: @Stor
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
1 day
$PBi Kurt is an absolute Godsend to shareholders. So much upside yet to be priced in. Complete 🎁at current levels. Wednesday’s market action should begin to reflect this as all of the “late crowd” checks in. Congrats to you and all of the other “ahead of the curve” folks like all of those in our discord @StoryTrading . It’s going to be a great week ahead.
@aramondiaz
Alonso Ramón Díaz
1 day
$PBI 🚀 Hestia Capital Management CIO Kurt Wolf:
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
1 day
RT @aramondiaz: $PBI 🚨 BREAKING - S&P Rating Upgrade: Good news, S&P just upgraded PBI's debt rating, signaling strong fundamental impr…
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
@theShedsLars $PBI All fair comments. You've done great work on this name.🙏Agree re. growth... being conservative... don't get me wrong, would love to be proven wrong there.
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
@DOMOCAPITAL $PBI ... you are the🐐on this name (and others)! Thank you for all that I learned from your posts.🙏Happy to join such sharp company... see you in the double-digits!
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
$PBI $8.44 Float: 163M Short 13.4M = 8.2% THIS COMPELLING RISK/REWARD, DEEP VALUE STORY IS REFRESHING IN A SEA OF VOLATILE GROWTH/MOMENTUM RECOMMENDED ENTRY PRIOR TO FEB 11TH QUARTERLY REPORT 10 KEY CONSIDERATIONS: 1. New Management Inflection – Kurt Wolf of Hestia Capital (owns ~ 8.7% or 15.8M shares) took control of the BoD in May ’24. Within weeks Lance Rosenzweig was appointed interim CEO. By July $70M of costs reductions had already been realized and a new range of cost cutting targets of $150M-$170M was announced (up from $60-$100M). Its Global E-Commerce (GEC) business was jettisoned to a wind-down entity at a max cost of $150M, saving approx. the same amount annually between net losses & capex. 2. No Growth But FCF Generative Businesses – Remaining businesses: PreSort (~1/3 of rev.) & SendTech (~2/3 of rev.,cloud-based shipping software etc.) while having some potential growth prospects, are best considered stable non-growers at this juncture (I would consider growth here to be “free upside”). Despite this, they produce robust gross and EBIT margins of ~56% and 22%, respectively. Net income in excess of $230M seems attainable for this year ($1.25/share) with robust free cash flow approaching $200M. 3. Shareholder Value Creation Initiatives – With an estimated $450M-$500M in FCF generation expected now through exit ’26, management now has more flexibility than ever to 1) pay down more debt, 2) buy back shares, 3) increase dividends, and 4) jumpstart a strategic pathway to growth. Based on listening to management, this list is roughly in order of what I would expect. 4. Debt Paydown, Cash Optimization & Refi – The co. has been very active here but has a lot of meat left on the bone. Informed analysts suggest the potential for upwards of $80M (> $0.40/share) in incremental income from a combo of variable comp. reductions & int. expenses savings. PBI has outlined a further ~$1.04Bln in term & operating lines presenting refi opportunities. Every 100bps positive delta generates $0.04-$-0.06 in EPS. Addit. opportunities exist to optimize cash & reduce interest expense such as captive lease receivable sales. 5. Key Potential Risk – Despite the well-elucidated points made by many LT investors that its PreSort business is not at risk as it is classified as “market-dominant,” (meaning USPS can apply to the Postal Board for rate increases which in turn boosts margins for pre-sort contractors), there is still chance that PBI’s low 20% EBIT margins in this division could come under the scrutiny. That said, it would take an act of Congress to change the law. PBI is by far the market leader in both scale & technology so they can be the most aggressive on pricing. If this were to happen one would expect their current cadence of taking over business from others that can no longer compete to be accelerated. 6. Earnings Track Record – PBI has a consistent track record of beating on both the top & bottom lines. The recent management change has seen the order of magnitude of these beats increase. The co. reports on Feb 11th after market & recently reiterated its revenue guide of $505-$515M & increased its EBIT range by $5M to above $89M. 7. Capital Structure Considerations & Short Position– Current balance sheet shows ~$479M in cash & equiv., $1,943M debt (inclusive of recent Oaktree note paydown) with an average coupon of ~8.5%. Management has mapped out a plan that could see this further reduced to ~$1,450M by the end of ’26E. Given their close proximity (~$9.50 strike) I have included the 9.1M options & ~6.3M RSUs/PSUs to arrive at a fully diluted number of 197.2M shares outstanding for all of my calculations to add conservatism. Despite over 13M shares short that don’t appear to have an obvious capital structure hedge I don’t ascribe to the short squeeze narratives currently being actively floated. That said, I acknowledge and am pleased to see 6 days-to-cover as an added tailwind to incremental good news. 8. Upcoming Catalysts – Upcoming quarter could beat & raise. Positive updates & outlook regarding the existing businesses.. Further details re. cost cutting & refinancing objectives & timelines. Possible announcement of a share repurchase program, comfort regarding security of their PreSort margins in respect of the new administration/DOGE. (Note: despite Trump’s bluster regarding USPS privatization I agree with the view that the structural inefficiencies, i.e. universal service obligation, make this “a bridge to far.”). Note: DOGE initiatives could result in further upside if, in lieu of outright privatization, they pushed for even more outsourcing in an effort to cut payroll & benefits fat which is USPS’s current cost anchor. 9. Attractive Technicals – PBI has been consolidating in a range between $7-8 for approx. 6 mo. with strong support in the $7-$7.50 range. RSI has only recently picked up reflective of the recent debt paydown & guidance. 10. Attractive Valuation – Using consensus estimates (which are arguably too low) current ‘25E valuations are P/E 7.5X, EV/S 1.5X EV/EBITDA 5X. Cheap on an absolute, relative & historic basis. CONCLUSION: Bold cost cutting execution from the new leadership has finally freed PBI to fully realize the robust earnings & FCF generation capabilities of its businesses. This positions new PBI shareholders to benefit from impressive margins & a historically inexpensive multiple. Just using its 10 year avg. P/E of 12X on a reasonable $1.25 in EPS (some are calling for 20% or more) I can comfortably get to $15 for an ~70% return. Compelling risk/reward as the downside appears limited to $7.25. I GAVE THIS IDEA TO OUR COMMUNITY AT MUCH LOWER PRICES Feeling left behind? Feel like you are lacking an edge? INVEST IN YOURSELF, MAKE IT YOUR BEST YEAR EVER, YOU DESERVE IT. Consider working together with me and the rest of the @StoryTrading team and community (use discount code: MAKEBANK65, for 65% of your first month, that’s less than $1/day, cancel anytime) to get access to trade & investment ideas ahead of the curve. You will also get: · Daily Pre-Market Prep Video · Daily Trade Alerts & Ongoing Investment Ideas (before X). · Live Trading Sessions · Active Chat Room/Forums · Daily Modified Wheel Put Selling Portfolio Updates · Fully Archived Due Diligence resources from multiple collaborators Kudos to these sharp “ahead of the curve” folks: @gpaisa7 @GrindeOptions @Han_Akamatsu @harmonictrader @HighEPebble @i_Know_First @iancassel @ihors3 @InversionesArs @InwestowanieUSA @JaguarAnalytics @jbulltard1 @JKMidnight27 @JohnHuber72 @jonasw33 @JosephKaliI @julesvdk027 @kingdomcapadv @KyleAdamsStocks @Lets_Disagree_ @liberalpuppy @LingmerthStefan @LiquidtyCleaner @LogicalThesis @LukeWolgram @MadDogCapital @Maeyymoetz @MammaaiutoY @MigueldOrey @MikeT1999 @MilhemGroup @MinervaCap @MiniNooby @Mr_Derivatives @n0wn0wj07 @natstewart5 @Not_Sure069 @OneIdeaDaily @OperationATM @OzBodkins @p1capitalmgmt @palmyInvesting @ParkHeeJoon2 @PatriotCav76 @peruvian_bull @Peter_Eller10 @PhantomBlack699 @planert41 @printomatisch
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@DOMOCAPITAL
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
14 days
Not a recommendation, but I've written extensively on $PBI. My latest article is here: I give an extremely detailed financial model in the article with extremely conservative (almost ridiculously so) estimates. I do write this as the end: "In my opinion, Pitney Bowes shares, today, should already be conservatively valued over $12 per share. In-fact, the only reason I didn't include other scenarios at this time is, because the future year price targets on even just a base case scenario would look fantastical ($20+)." Note that this was written in Mid-August.
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
$PBI $8.44 Float: 163M Short 13.4M = 8.2% THIS COMPELLING RISK/REWARD, DEEP VALUE STORY IS REFRESHING IN A SEA OF VOLATILE GROWTH/MOMENTUM RECOMMENDED ENTRY PRIOR TO FEB 11TH QUARTERLY REPORT 10 KEY CONSIDERATIONS: 1. New Management Inflection – Kurt Wolf of Hestia Capital (owns ~ 8.7% or 15.8M shares) took control of the BoD in May ’24. Within weeks Lance Rosenzweig was appointed interim CEO. By July $70M of costs reductions had already been realized and a new range of cost cutting targets of $150M-$170M was announced (up from $60-$100M). Its Global E-Commerce (GEC) business was jettisoned to a wind-down entity at a max cost of $150M, saving approx. the same amount annually between net losses & capex. 2. No Growth But FCF Generative Businesses – Remaining businesses: PreSort (~1/3 of rev.) & SendTech (~2/3 of rev.,cloud-based shipping software etc.) while having some potential growth prospects, are best considered stable non-growers at this juncture (I would consider growth here to be “free upside”). Despite this, they produce robust gross and EBIT margins of ~56% and 22%, respectively. Net income in excess of $230M seems attainable for this year ($1.25/share) with robust free cash flow approaching $200M. 3. Shareholder Value Creation Initiatives – With an estimated $450M-$500M in FCF generation expected now through exit ’26, management now has more flexibility than ever to 1) pay down more debt, 2) buy back shares, 3) increase dividends, and 4) jumpstart a strategic pathway to growth. Based on listening to management, this list is roughly in order of what I would expect. 4. Debt Paydown, Cash Optimization & Refi – The co. has been very active here but has a lot of meat left on the bone. Informed analysts suggest the potential for upwards of $80M (> $0.40/share) in incremental income from a combo of variable comp. reductions & int. expenses savings. PBI has outlined a further ~$1.04Bln in term & operating lines presenting refi opportunities. Every 100bps positive delta generates $0.04-$-0.06 in EPS. Addit. opportunities exist to optimize cash & reduce interest expense such as captive lease receivable sales. 5. Key Potential Risk – Despite the well-elucidated points made by many LT investors that its PreSort business is not at risk as it is classified as “market-dominant,” (meaning USPS can apply to the Postal Board for rate increases which in turn boosts margins for pre-sort contractors), there is still chance that PBI’s low 20% EBIT margins in this division could come under the scrutiny. That said, it would take an act of Congress to change the law. PBI is by far the market leader in both scale & technology so they can be the most aggressive on pricing. If this were to happen one would expect their current cadence of taking over business from others that can no longer compete to be accelerated. 6. Earnings Track Record – PBI has a consistent track record of beating on both the top & bottom lines. The recent management change has seen the order of magnitude of these beats increase. The co. reports on Feb 11th after market & recently reiterated its revenue guide of $505-$515M & increased its EBIT range by $5M to above $89M. 7. Capital Structure Considerations & Short Position– Current balance sheet shows ~$479M in cash & equiv., $1,943M debt (inclusive of recent Oaktree note paydown) with an average coupon of ~8.5%. Management has mapped out a plan that could see this further reduced to ~$1,450M by the end of ’26E. Given their close proximity (~$9.50 strike) I have included the 9.1M options & ~6.3M RSUs/PSUs to arrive at a fully diluted number of 197.2M shares outstanding for all of my calculations to add conservatism. Despite over 13M shares short that don’t appear to have an obvious capital structure hedge I don’t ascribe to the short squeeze narratives currently being actively floated. That said, I acknowledge and am pleased to see 6 days-to-cover as an added tailwind to incremental good news. 8. Upcoming Catalysts – Upcoming quarter could beat & raise. Positive updates & outlook regarding the existing businesses.. Further details re. cost cutting & refinancing objectives & timelines. Possible announcement of a share repurchase program, comfort regarding security of their PreSort margins in respect of the new administration/DOGE. (Note: despite Trump’s bluster regarding USPS privatization I agree with the view that the structural inefficiencies, i.e. universal service obligation, make this “a bridge to far.”). Note: DOGE initiatives could result in further upside if, in lieu of outright privatization, they pushed for even more outsourcing in an effort to cut payroll & benefits fat which is USPS’s current cost anchor. 9. Attractive Technicals – PBI has been consolidating in a range between $7-8 for approx. 6 mo. with strong support in the $7-$7.50 range. RSI has only recently picked up reflective of the recent debt paydown & guidance. 10. Attractive Valuation – Using consensus estimates (which are arguably too low) current ‘25E valuations are P/E 7.5X, EV/S 1.5X EV/EBITDA 5X. Cheap on an absolute, relative & historic basis. CONCLUSION: Bold cost cutting execution from the new leadership has finally freed PBI to fully realize the robust earnings & FCF generation capabilities of its businesses. This positions new PBI shareholders to benefit from impressive margins & a historically inexpensive multiple. Just using its 10 year avg. P/E of 12X on a reasonable $1.25 in EPS (some are calling for 20% or more) I can comfortably get to $15 for an ~70% return. Compelling risk/reward as the downside appears limited to $7.25. I GAVE THIS IDEA TO OUR COMMUNITY AT MUCH LOWER PRICES Feeling left behind? Feel like you are lacking an edge? INVEST IN YOURSELF, MAKE IT YOUR BEST YEAR EVER, YOU DESERVE IT. Consider working together with me and the rest of the @StoryTrading team and community (use discount code: MAKEBANK65, for 65% of your first month, that’s less than $1/day, cancel anytime) to get access to trade & investment ideas ahead of the curve. You will also get: · Daily Pre-Market Prep Video · Daily Trade Alerts & Ongoing Investment Ideas (before X). · Live Trading Sessions · Active Chat Room/Forums · Daily Modified Wheel Put Selling Portfolio Updates · Fully Archived Due Diligence resources from multiple collaborators Kudos to these sharp “ahead of the curve” folks: @_passmoj @15minofPham @AcetheKidTA @aka_Long_Game @alc2022 @AliIbra15570852 @ArabellaBlairXo @aramondiaz @ArletteSager @macroaxis @Astoria_Capital @AstrosRusty @B2F_Investing @Barchart @BasedBreakouts @blackburn_ga @blastac69 @bojantrades @BondedPump @borsfinance @BuckNakedMulva @bullsbayretail @Bullstkpicks @calebtaylor10 @CapitalFang @CaptainRoyen @cohen520 @ColonelMark4 @ColtStock @crowdturtle @CryptoHotep @Cyan005 @daltybrewer @davegreenidge57 @DeskCalc @DGretta_Author @dividend_data @DividendDude_X @DOMOCAPITAL @ElevationMtg @elle_kaye11 @ErnestWongBWM @EyeSeeStuff @feetr_ai @FishtownCap @frontbuttcity @FuriesWoken @g0rdy4 @GorillaTrading
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@DOMOCAPITAL
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
14 days
Not a recommendation, but I've written extensively on $PBI. My latest article is here: I give an extremely detailed financial model in the article with extremely conservative (almost ridiculously so) estimates. I do write this as the end: "In my opinion, Pitney Bowes shares, today, should already be conservatively valued over $12 per share. In-fact, the only reason I didn't include other scenarios at this time is, because the future year price targets on even just a base case scenario would look fantastical ($20+)." Note that this was written in Mid-August.
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
RT @StoryTrading: 🚀 Our analyst @smantel BLESSED the community with $BBAI! 🔥 📢 Sent an alert to our community at $4.30 with a full DD brea…
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
@Sagitorius711 $APPS covered some $4.51 added some at $4.88 this morning.
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
@PipelineDataLLC Happy to hear that, you are smart $ Mr. Gomes... they should call you "Money Mark" or something like that...😜
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
3 days
@Sagitorius711 $APPS - I'm sorry but in the real world there is simply no growth story here as evidenced by the MASSIVE 1% increase in their guidance.
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
4 days
@celtics1844 Multiples are primarily a function of growth & margins. Compare $APPS & $APP. Trolls can't or don't bother to back up their assertions. Good luck with your "investment." Happy to check back in a few weeks.
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@smantel
TheGodF🅰therKnows
4 days
$APPS $4.93 Float 90.2M Short 5.5M = 6.1% SI SHORT-LIVED SHORT-COVER RALLY AT RISK OF FADING FAST KEY CONSIDERATIONS: ⭐Growth: Despite showing sequential growth over the last quarter (5%, first in 10 qtrs), revenues are still down double digits year-over-year for F’25 YTD in both core business lines: On Device Solutions -12.6% and App Growth Platform -16.9%. This is despite y/y increases in sales & marketing. Their core business still heavily relies on new mobile device activations which are anemic in a saturated market. $APP has and will continue to “eat their lunch” in both app engagement and directed advertising offerings. ⭐Debt: This remains a major issue. They only have $14M left on their revolver. Their term debt is due in 15 months. If they successfully refinance all of this debt at lower rates and extend the maturity, I would expect a positive market response, but today’s move more than front-loads that imho. Further, they only have $30M left on their $100M ATM at last report (likely less now as I’d be shocked if they were not active in the market today). I strongly believe that they will take advantage of any further market strength to raise equity. ⭐EBITDA and Cash Flow: While $70M in adjusted EBITDA guide is positive, an anemic 30% free cash flow conversion only yields around $20M in cash, compared to the $37M/year they pay just in debt service. This isn't even close to sufficient. Using their guidance, even a 100% FCF conversion that would see eliminating all capex would still only amount to an 8% debt paydown if 100% of the funds were directed that way. ⭐Sustainability: Shrinking to grow isn’t a sustainable strategy. Despite their much vaunted cost cutting initiatives, F’25 YTD G&A is still up yr/yr. In fact, the only place that saw cost cutting is in product development -29.2%. Needless to say, cuts in this area are NOT what you want to see if you are betting on a return to growth. Management touts $25M in additional cost cuts but doesn’t say where these are coming from. For shareholders banking on a sustained return to growth I sure hope it isn’t further product development. ⭐Technical Resistance: With today's spike the RSI is now 88.5 and the stock is seeing resistance right at the volume shelf @ $4.95 - $5.25. CONCLUSION: I see today as nothing more than a short-lived, short-cover driven rally. I do not see anything in the MRQ report amounting to a compelling inflection in the fundamentals. I don’t believe a $5M increase (1%) in revenue guidance and a tightening of the low end of adjusted EBITDA guidance justifies todays >70% move. THE BALANCE OF RISK IS HIGHLY SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE AFTER TODAY’S MOVE IMHO. Caveat Emptor GLTA Feeling left behind? Feel like you are lacking an edge? INVEST IN YOURSELF, MAKE IT YOUR BEST YEAR EVER, YOU DESERVE IT. Consider working together with me and the rest of the @StoryTrading team and community (use discount code: MAKEBANK65, for 65% of your first month, that’s less than $1/day, cancel anytime) to get access to trade & investment ideas ahead of the curve. You will also get: · Daily Pre-Market Prep Video · Daily Trade Alerts & Ongoing Investment Ideas (before X). · Live Trading Sessions · Active Chat Room/Forums · Daily Modified Wheel Put Selling Portfolio Updates · Fully Archived Due Diligence resources from multiple collaborators Kudos to these sharp “ahead of the curve” folks: @DougieFreshPick @drowsyinvestor @ds_bid @ecommerceshares @EdgeToTrade @ExpressYabo @fabitrades @FlashGekko @fm23 @fundmyfund @garethjame61658 @GbermejoVic @genxchas_trades @Globalmess65 @gm7A0aly8GJDjkR @GorillaTrading @gpaisa7 @GregDuncan_ @hassytrades @HimmyJTheGoat @hometradernfa @iLoveiDevices @ineedsow @IngJuanPa7 @IvoPan145365 @JamesTraylor88 @jdhenning @jeffmeyers72 @JKCoins @Jokeeee_ @Jokerparabol @josebamortalena @JustinSS55 @kakam_fx @Kaptn_Quantum @kby_kk @KevOfMomentum @Khalid_gho @kiantrades @kimminhihi_KM @kiraraHawaii @kosukero_maru @libersrocks @m1kehuncho @MammaaiutoY @mangooseca @MartyChargin @mascarosergi @Maximus_Holla
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@AlphaSenseInc
AlphaSense
5 days
$APPS Guidance: "We anticipate revenue in the range of $485 million to $490 million for fiscal year 2025 with projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of between $69 million and $71 million."
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