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@paulmotty
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Paul Krishnamurty: 30 years semi/pro gambler. Journalist & betting analyst, consultant for @BetOnline_ag , @Betfair . Media enquires: paulkrishnamurty @gmail .com
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Pinned Tweet
Really enjoyed this conversation with
@leantotheleft
regarding
#Election2024
and our ever-widening range of politics betting markets at
@BetOnline_ag
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Biggest ever political bet just placed on Betfair.
£1M on Biden at 1.5
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Infosys - Sunak's wife
Fujitsu - Keegan's husband
The big story in modern politics is not ideology, or nationalism, but public contracts, which are rarely scrutinised and generally opaque.
@paulmotty
@LordRennard
@kelvmackenzie
@Dannythefink
@thetimes
That's before we mention Infosys.
Link - recent dealings
Screenshot - self explanatory.
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@RobBurl
Suppression? She's rarely off the air?
IEA and other think tanks she represented are opaque-funded.
I never heard her introduced on UK TV as 'former spokesperson for Republicans Overseas'.
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If BBC want to regain credibility, invite James to explain the Russian disinformation campaign, rather than a bunch of hacks who only realised the significance this morning.
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Putin's sophisticated, well-funded plan to blow up politics in UK, France, Italy, Germany, Turkey.
Clearly it worked in each country and we know pretty much who the beneficiaries were.
#ReleaseTheRussianReport
Russian intelligence’s Project Charlemagne focused on France, Italy, the UK, Germany and Turkey with “a secret black budget of tens of millions of dollars”, earmarked for populist nationalist politicians opposed to the EU.
?
@Nigel_Farage
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This is the saddest of days. I lost the best friend a man could ever ask for. Goodbye my darling Ellie. We will never forget you. Thank you for sharing your life with us. It was a privilege xxx
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Outstanding stuff from
@DavidLammy
on
#Marr
. Calling out the far right, their alliance with Trump's white supremacist guru Steve Bannon and the BBC for normalizing them. Rare directness and bravery. A signpost, not a weathervane.
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@cryptomanran
@Scaramucci
Using the word 'corrupt' about Trump's opponent, but not the 91-times indicted guy with a half-million fine for fraud, a secret Chinese bank account, who was previously fined for a fake university...is some mind-twisting logic.
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An excellent thread. It is utterly terrifying that this stuff has been normalised. That people believe, repeat it. That many 'experts' still complacently blather on about 'both sides' and refuse to see the blindingly obvious.
Pre-2015, politics wasn't like this.
He was a sadistic, vengeful man long before he descended the elevator and talked about criminals and rapists coming from Mexico. Of course, as the vise tightens, he will incite more violence. How crazy is all this? I offer this thread. 1/20
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This is truly outstanding. Can't find a single disagreement with
@RadioFreeTom
analysis.
DAILY: Rather than those 'left-behind', is a bored middle class to blame for today's decline of democracy?
Author of 'Our Own Worst Enemy'
@RadioFreeTom
tells
@SnellArthur
why unchecked narcissism is to blame for rising illiberalism we see today.
Listen:
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Reasons to scrap the House of Lords
Lord Elliott - founder of Conservative Friends of Russia.
Lord Lebedev of Siberia
Baroness Michelle Mone of unusable PPE
Baroness Charlotte Owen - who knows why? (1/?)
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A tweet and an article, which explains why you never see George on
#bbcqt
. Whereas Farage appears more than anyone.
The core business of the United Kingdom, around which our politics revolves, is organised crime and the looting of other nations.
My column.
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Thinking about the tree house reminded me of when Tories, media and countless voters I encountered were FURIOUS to learn Gordon Brown had a Sky subscription at No.10 and paid his cleaner £10 per hour.
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Stunned to hear Darren Grimes and Natalie Elphicke MP produced almost identical, anti-Rashford tweets.
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Louise is right. Yellow Vests are Russian-backed agitators. Macron has caved.
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@peterjukes
@NafeezAhmed
Furthermore, Mercer's RenTech hedge fund was by far the most successful operating in Russia/ex-USSR.
A journalist, Scott Christianson, reported his $7BN tax dispute with the IRS. Then he fell down stairs at home and died.
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The film we need more than ever is coming
As the evidence mounts that Russian interference goes deeper than we ever thought…
The indomitable
@johnsweeneyroar
investigates the full scale in a new movie.
Boris Johnson, dark Russian money, bunga bunga parties, blackmail & much more.
👉
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If we engage on here, please like this and I'll add you to a list. It will take forever to go through 6,000 follows individually
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So true. I realized at a young age that obsessively following snooker, politics, golf and devising complex in-play cricket betting strategies was EXACTLY what the ladies were looking for.
Something a lot of men don't like to admit:
All of your hobbies and ambitions are to attract women.
Nature doesn't care how much personal fulfillment you get from them. Those things are cool, but they're a coincidental positive externality to the prime objective:
To keep the
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@ivanastradner
Because their 'nationalism' is a fake, insincere scam with the ultimate goal of destroying the rule of law. Because to do so would serve their transnational, criminal interests.
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Great thread. Greg has been on this right from the start along with the other sages he mentions -
@LouiseMensch
@ericgarland
@20committee
.
All were derided and smeared by the know-nothing propagandists.
#ImpeachmentDay
Today, the House will vote to impeach Donald Trump. Whatever happens from here (spoiler: we shall prevail), we must savor this victory over the seditious forces working to destroy our country.
Look at how far we’ve come.
[THREAD]
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Carlson pilgrimages to Budapest, to worship Orban.
Comes back a full-on Kremlin propagandist?
What a coincidence!
Tucker: By any actual reality based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine
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90 seconds of essential viewing. Especially for Brits.
"People describe me as Putin's number one foreign enemy"
There's ONE thing
@Billbrowder
wants you to know about Ukraine and it's this👇
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@ivanastradner
@NATO
Rare disagreement, Ivana. Wallace has done a great job and I agree UK is key to Euro security, but his party are up to their necks in Russian money. If Biden hadn't won, they would be in lockstep with Trump.
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Incredible scenes!
Jordan Brown - matched earlier at 1000.0 on Betfair - beats Ronnie O'Sullivan for the Welsh Open title.
Biggest snooker upset ever.
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Don't ask me about betting today. I will restart writing tomorrow.
Today isn't just political, its personal. Cuts to the core of who I am. And that will soon be very, very drunk.
Feel free to bring it, Putinistas 😂😂
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I still get the feeling that no more than 5% of Brits are aware of the likely imminent catastrophe awaiting us.
NEW: Donald Trump is considering a reduction in intelligence sharing with members of NATO, which depends on the U.S. for the type of information that has helped Ukraine fend off Russia, according to foreign officials informed of the plans.
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@ericgarland
So the last two Republican Finance Chairs were Michael Cohen and a Chinese agent?
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My interview for
@SimonNott
's
#BettingPeople
series.
Discussing my 30 year career as a pro gambler, from teenage bookie to special focus on political betting during the madcap era of Brexit, Trump and Corbyn.
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Well, well, well.
I fell asleep at 9am thinking there's no way this changes much until tomorrow...
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@SnookerJudge
@ABC
36% of Americans would excuse Trump if he wiped his arse with the flag. A 2016 poll showed 35% of Republican voters believed Hillary was 'literally a demon', as per Alex Jones.
#cultists
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To this day, millions believe Assange is a lefty. Despite hanging out with white supremacists, Farage and actively conspiring with arch-fascist Putin to get Trump elected.
He is the ultimate symbol of gaslighting over the past decade.
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"Thanks to Banks's extensive use of tax havens and shell companies, it has never been entirely clear where all of that money came from — or even whether all of it was really his."
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He did indeed tell us before the 2016 election.
Folks, I told you *BEFORE* Trump was even elected that Kilimnik was GRU and the likely RIS guy inside the Trump campaign due to his close, longstanding relationship with Manafort:
This is not news...I got a lot of trolling for this at the time.
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@mattprescott
Brexit
'Project Fear' warned of this. The chemicals aren't available here.
Also, they have no fear of a govt imposing the law, as they would in the EU.
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Very excited to start a new wide-ranging role today for
@betonline_ag
.
My main focus will be politics/current affairs around the world and I'm also helping build and trade cricket and snooker markets. Very busy couple of months ahead!
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Can't remember any newspaper breaking half the number of genuine scoops about a government as the Sunday Times these past 3 years 👏
EXC: Sajid Javid admits he was a "non dom" for six years before he was an MP. Didn't pay UK tax on his overseas income between 2000 and 2006
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Daniel Hannan and Claire Fox have life peerages.
Wiggy has Covid-testing contracts. Friends of Vote Leave made billions from uncompetitive, inappropriate PPE contracts.
Of course, it was all about taking back control 😂
Two weeks on, as Britain becomes Plague Island, I could easily update this with the people who have had such an impact on the Brexit/Covid disaster, such as Andy Wigmore selling medical equipment from his ski chalet in Switzerland, or Julia Hartley-Brewer fleeing to the Caribbean
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2 takeaways from
#Peterborough
1) No evidence that Brexit Party would fare any better than UKIP did in a General election.
2) By-election betting is mental.
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Been far too busy to check notifications so, MAGA peeps, get deleting!
Maybe eat some humble pie 😘
Its OK, hardened gamblers know you can't win all the time and that the game is by nature, unpredictable.
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I didn't expect to be settling this up before 9pm or without any stress!
Happy days! Gary Wilson wins at 150/1, taking my season's profit above 90 units.
My second big-priced winner of 2022 after Rob Milkins landed at 175/1.
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Thanks for all the lovely messages. I'm still here awaiting tests but heart and blood pressure are fine and feeling a lot better.
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BOOM!
175/1 each-way tip Robert Milkins reaches the final!
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Decided to have a couple of days off Twitter, to watch the election with alcohol and friends.
Obviously a great result on many levels! Betting-wise it was my best UK election ever. (1/?)
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This guy owned casinos. Can't imagine why that went wrong.
At 10:00 P.M. on Election Evening, we were at 97% win with the so-called “bookies”.
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@peterjukes
Perfect example of rubbish state propaganda?
Mason and Kuennsberg will end up giving Solovyov and Comical Ali a run for their money.
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Apologies for the shameless self-publicity.
This article from March 2021 tips Liz Truss at 32.0 for Next PM, while laying Sunak at 3.6, Starmer at 5.4.
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Naturally, Putin media is still rooting for Trump's terror army.
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I just backed Boris Johnson Exit Date to be 2021, at 4.4 on Betfair.
Cracking trade. I think every chance he goes soon but even if not, speculation is highly likely to drive the odds shorter at some stage.
I've already laid after July 2022 at 1.7.
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@eddie_rippeth
@unilincolncoo
@johnsweeneyroar
@LibDems
@AndrewmitchMP
@SCELibDems
John Sweeney has been on the front line, leading on a whole range of issues that most media never dare touch - from corruption to scientology to Putin/far-Right - for at least the 25 years I've been following him. I would vote for him in a heartbeat.
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Fucking hell. This Putin rally in Moscow.
Nazi Germany merges with the USSR.
Is there really anyone in the free world who doesn't realise this is staged? That the people are smiling so enthusiastically because to not smile may have consequences?
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6) The truth will out. The question is whether, when it does, there is anything left of our democracy, economy to save. Whether they've silenced anybody who dares to expose it. That is how Putin's Russia works, and nobody seriously expects change.
As the evidence mounts that Russian interference goes deeper than we ever thought…
The indomitable
@johnsweeneyroar
investigates the full scale in a new movie.
Boris Johnson, dark Russian money, bunga bunga parties, blackmail & much more.
👉
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True. Not hyperbole.
Read/watch the Leveson evidence then wonder why Leveson2 got cancelled.
Listen to
@UntoldMurder
then tell me we have a free press that isn't beyond the law
Story now big in the Mail Online too
I saw this every day during the phone hacking trial. The British press is the mafia. We won’t just go for you. We’ll go for your kids. We’ll for your parents. We’ll go for anyone you’ve ever loved.
Obey. Or suffer.
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Far be it from me to comment on Flack, whom I'd never heard of, but listening to Jane Moore (another Sun journalist) spreading blame to everyone except the scumbag tabloid media is truly nauseating.
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This footage was during the election. Shamefully, very few journalists followed up.
Having read the report, Johnson said there was "Absolutely no evidence that I've ever seen of Russian interference in UK democratic processes" and he saw no reason to publish it before the general election.
#RussiaReport
#JohnsonLies
#RussianReport
Video courtesy of
@guardian
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Absolute peak
#UKSR
that Jeremy Hunt can make cheap gags about Rayner selling her council house. Safe in knowledge that nobody will remind that a Tory donor gave him a discount on seven luxury properties, which Jeremy 'forgot' to declare.
#Budget2024
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By the time all the votes are counted, the poll averages won't be so far wrong.
Another half-time narrative will bite the dust.
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There is no greater example of Putin's Horseshoe than Tucker Carlson and Russell Brand. Once impossible to imagine as allies but now almost joined at the hip.
I feel I need to emphasize the Kremlin-backed radicalization pipeline embodied by accused rapist Russell Brand & unemployed racist Tucker Carlson is leading to unadulterated Nazism. Nothing “neo” about it.
Tucker is being funded by Peter Thiel patron Robert Mercer to spread
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Please don't tell me the media that has been fawning over Boris having a sixth child, after leaving his cancer-stricken wife, is now about to have a morality meltdown over a scientist they'd never heard of until last month?
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In case anyone doubted UK politics and media was a cosy little Tory party club.
I guess the govt would have appointed her husband James Forsyth too but he's busy at The Spectator and The Sun
New: ITV News National Editor Allegra Stratton is leaving to work for Chancellor Rishi Sunak as Director of Strategic Communications at the Treasury, ITV News staff have been told in an email.
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Joe Biden just overtook Donald Trump as favourite for
#Election2024
on
@BetfairExchange
Biden 2.36
Trump 2.38
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Essential reading. Anyone carrying water for Banks, trying to spin the verdict otherwise, should be treated with deep suspicion.
Back to Banks v
@carolecadwalla
. The full judgment is really worth a read for any journalist. Justice Steyn has really forensically nailed down the riot of meetings between Leave EU in the Russian Embassy in 2016-17.
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@sjwrenlewis
@BBeever
Exactly. Even the most honest media, with no intent to mislead, would hugely influence people. Simply because they determine which issues, perspectives and talking points are newsworthy.
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Good journalism. Amazed how this guy keeps his job at the BBC.
To understand what’s happening in Afghanistan now, we need to look at Trump’s deal with the Taliban in 2020. 7 minutes on what’s in it and why it matters. Produced
@TomBrada1991
.
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@peterjukes
@rcolvile
@nytimes
It is constantly striking how they are either in denial, or intent on lying, about their ideology.
Do they disown Simon Heffer - Powell's biographer? Or Thatcher, for whom Powell was a hero? Or the ex-UKIP/BNP voters who formed a key part of their 2019 base?
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@PaulORourke_LFC
@ericgarland
I get little pleasure from the vindication. It was always blindingly obvious to anybody who bothered to research. But Team Bullshit remain prolific, moving from one gaslight to the next.
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Had a £5 bet with my mate that Fiona Bruce would intervene on Zahawi's behalf on
#bbcqt
Easy money. Landed within 10 minutes.
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Another disastrous poll for the Tories. Now in a considerably worse position than before their worst ever result in 1997.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 22% (-3)
REF: 12% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
via
@RedfieldWilton
, 21 Jan
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Giuliani's sole purpose in life is to, somehow, look more ridiculous than Trump.
Rudy Giuliani's former assistant, Noelle Dunphy, who accused the former NY mayor of sexual abuse, harassment and wage theft, has filed a series of transcripts of audio files and ... wow.
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@carolecadwalla
@LordAshcroft
@NHS
.An investigation into the NHS by, erm, a major private NHS contractor and party donor?
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My view on
#LocalElections2023
Dubious narratives presents a golden opportunity for Labour majority backers
Via
@BetfairExchange
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The Dow is up 500pts.
Consumer confidence is up.
Inflation is falling.
Yet
#stockmarketcrash
is trending.
Why? Information warfare?
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I've been following corruption, party donors, offshore tax havens, bank secrecy, intensely, for 20 years.
There will be a wall of silence about Panorama's revelations. There always is, leaving the principled few shouting into space.
Extraordinary: why would someone living in Thailand give £10 million to the Brexit Party, or indeed any other political party?
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Excellent stuff from Fukuyama here, echoing what many of us have said for many years.
The global alliance of right wing autocrats "is much deeper than most people realize," says Francis Fukuyama.
His description of this got very interesting. It's a Putinist internationale, as we've seen very vividly here at home.
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This is key. Only by massively artificially inflating his worth, via exposed highly corrupt bank, could Trump obtain these enormous loans.
Ivanka's testimony today confirmed that Deutsche Bank gave Trump loan terms that were unavailable anywhere else based on DJT personal guarantee and financial statements showing minimum 2-3B. Trump Ord therefore NAILED on NYAG's main case: DJT's financial statements mattered AND
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Cloughie Knew
Brian Clough on Robert Maxwell and Rupert Murdoch in 1989
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Unbelievable bravery
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Mark is one of the very best, shrewdest election predictors around and has put up my dream result 😲🍾
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Keep asking. Don't let them bury the Cambridge Analytica story.
Alex. Stop tweeting Guido and answer the question. You worked on the corrupt Cambridge Analytica Kenya campaign. A senior official was murdered. The result annulled. What are you doing standing as an MEP without explaining this?
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In addition to all those Russian oligarch donors, the Conservative Party Treasurer is now Egyptian billionaire Mohammed Mansour.
Ian Hislop “The Conservative Party is almost entirely funded by foreign nationals abroad who don’t have our best interests at heart.”
It's a kind of inverted imperialism. The heart of the old empire is now effectively controlled by super-rich foreigners.
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Now Brexit is done, please put differences aside and acknowledge that our population has been targeted with weapons grade infowar by the Kremlin, implicating various politicians, parties, media.
#ReleaseTheRussiaReport
and report
@johnsweeneyroar
whistleblower letter.
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My final
#GeneralElection2024
prediction
LAB 429
CON 101
LD 67
SNP 21
GREEN 4
REFORM 3
OTHERS 25
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100% agree. Murdoch tabloids started the rot, shaped our political culture, obliterated truth. Created the conditions for hostile takeover and to become the
#UKSR
or
#Bullshitland
.
The reason we're in such an appalling mess as a country is because we have such an abysmal newspaper industry, owned by tax-dodging, non-dom, mostly foreign billionaires.
They've trained huge swathes of the the British populace to do their bidding.
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I just hope to be alive long enough to see the movies, the box sets, that reveal who and what Trump, Bannon, Cummngs, Johnson really are. What a ridiculous period in history this has been.
Then watch everyone deny ever supporting them
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Idea that Cruz has limited scope to improve ignores that he can win Rubio voters & is natural beneficiary if Trump declines.
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#Election2020
is two months from today. From now until November 3rd, I'll be writing a daily Twitter thread over at
@BetfairExchange
, covering all the big market moves, breaking news and analysing the state of the race.
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Excellent long tweet on the sinister matter of mind control. Robert Mercer is the main money behind Trump, Brexit, Breitbart, Cambridge Analytica and the far-Right app Parler.
🚨A Brief History of Documented Mind Manipulation: MKUltra, Cambridge Analytica, and the Mercer Family.
The Mercer Family has shown a curious interest towards the malleability of the human mind.
The Mercer Family's wealth propelled the operations of Cambridge Analytica, a
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Given that Trump's main debate challenge is to look presidential, is creating a huge media story by inviting Gennifer Flowers a wise move?
"Inappropriate" to use Bill's past personal behavior to attack Hillary
62% All voters
57% Men
66% Women
80% Dem
58% Ind
44% Rep
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In hospital having tests after getting chest pains last night. I'm told just a mixture of stress and extreme heat.
But I think it was the shock of seeing the media cover Farage's position on Russia.
Truly, once in a millennia stuff.
Whatever next? Trump? Cummings? Firtash?
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Not only does the milkshake gain Farage sympathy, but it takes his dubious financial backers out of the news. Clueless.
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During the most fraught political moment in living memory, the UK media's priority is to endlessly scrutinise the opposition leader's off-mic comments in search of fleeting, irrelevant controversy. Pathetic and indicative of why our politics is screwed up.
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Says a former editor of the News of the World, who as Mirror editor, used faked pictures accusing British troops of torture.
I wouldn’t believe Meghan Markle if she gave me a weather report.
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This resident of Russia reckons the media is pushing for war. Despite there already being a war and genocide. Many lefty fans won't even realise that 'Atlas' is a far-right, Ayn Rand-worshipping group who would throw lefties under the bus at first opportunity.
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(1) Dan does have a point. Who can forget all those times the media quizzed Grant Shapps about his use of multiple names, including to do private business in Parliament?
Know it’s annoying to some people on here. But Labour politicians like Angela Rayner are going to get scrutinised just the same as the Tories. Sorry.
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This. Also remember major global criminal networks trade heavily in gold, and crypto.
This explains 25 years of relentless online bullshit about the Fed, fiat currencies etc.
6/We are literally re-litigating the New Deal here folks. It’s that simple. These folks want “gold” and hierarchy back in control so the “real” masters of society can assert themselves once and for all and regain their “rightful” position at the top.
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After a frantic 24 hours, big changes in the
#Election2024
betting. Latest odds via
@BetOnline_ag
PRESIDENT
TRUMP -185
HARRIS +350
NEWSOM +1000
BIDEN +1100
OBAMA +1400
WHITMER +2000
DEMOCRAT NOMINEE
HARRIS -130
BIDEN +300
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