Will Jordan
@williamjordann
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Dem pollster with Global Strategy Group. Bakersfield native.
Washington, DC
Joined July 2009
Days until achieving MAJORITY disapproval from @Gallup. Reagan: 727.Bush I: 1336.Clinton: 573.Bush II: 1205.Obama: 936. Trump: 8. days.
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A politician answered a yes or no question with a "no" followed by a frank explanation, and the news org removed the "no".
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Whoa. Let's not lose sight of the youth vote here. Dem margins in VA among 18-29 year olds:. McAuliffe +5.Clinton +18.Northam . 39
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The Times of London is reporting that Theresa May's team says she held hands with Trump at Trump's request, because he is afraid of stairs.
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Genuinely wild to compare the demographics of Democrats who flipped seats in the 2006 wave vs. the 2018 wave. in 2006.- 3% POC.- 13% Women.- 23% Under 45.- 83% White men. in 2018.- 21% POC.- 68% Women.- 53% Under 45.- 24% White Men
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This is wild. Emily's List heard from 900 potential female candidates in 2016. So far this year: 11,000 .
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Not enough attention to the fact that Rep. Marsha Blackburn was one of the 11 original House co-sponsors of the "birther bill." All the way back in 2009.
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I know there's more to this story, but it's pretty striking. Here's the age breakdown of GE2015, EURef in 2016, and GE2017.
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NEW STUDY: Hispanic turnout 7pts lower in strict voter ID states. Black, Asian turnout also lower—whites unaffected.
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Um, wow. Net favorability of Putin:. Democrats.July 2014: -54.Dec 2016: -62. Republicans.July 2014: -66.Dec 2016: -10. (YouGov/Economist).
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% of Americans “proud” about election outcome, per Gallup . 2008: 67%.2012: 48%.2016: 32%.
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Quite a stat from Pew: . 52% of low-income Republicans now say federal govt should make sure people have healthcare. 9 months ago: 31%
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Biden has now won more raw votes than Clinton (or Trump) in 2016.
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This is from AZ's largest newspaper. Its editorial board is traditionally Republican (before 2016 had never endorsed a Dem in 126 years).
EDITORIAL: Trump made it clear that he's not just OK with institutional racism, it's his goal. via @azcopinions
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"Things Mike Pence flatly denied" is the new "Trump's old tweets"
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Pew finds a huge gap in support for Biden's relief bill between lower income and upper income Republicans -- nearly two thirds of lower income Republicans support it.
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Mitch McConnell Job Approval among 2016 Trump Voters (via @YouGovUS). Feb +21.Mar +15.Apr +17.May +12.Jun +10.Jul +4.Aug -18. Now -42.
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Here is Republicans and Democrats on Vladimir Putin since July 2014.
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Fav/unfav of Howard Schultz. 4% fav to 50% unfav with Dems (!), 4/43 with Republicans (!!), and. 4/31 with independents (!!!) .
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Ah yes, the Paris Agreement, the agreement between America and the city of Paris.
By rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, President Biden indicates he’s more interested in the views of the citizens of Paris than in the jobs of the citizens of Pittsburgh. This agreement will do little to affect the climate and will harm the livelihoods of Americans.
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2016 Presidential Results: . KY: Trump +30.LA: Trump +20.MS: Trump +18. 2019 Governor Results: . KY: Dem +0.4.LA: Dem +2 (est.).MS: Rep +5.5.
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OK - this is a good one. Beto won voters who were born in Texas by 3 points. Cruz won people who moved to Texas by 15.
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Reminder to never let yourself get negatively polarized into saying Hitler is hot
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Monday: Debate.Tuesday: Machado.Wednesday: Polls.Thursday: Cuba.Friday: Porn.Saturday: Taxes.
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Just put yourself in the shoes of a white supremacist watching from home. The President of the United States has attacked this guy & not you
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The crowdfunding campaign for Collins' opponent skyrocketing in the past couple minutes. Now over $2 million. Over 50,000 people have donated "$20.20".
Looks like the Susan Collins GoFundMe has raised over a hundred thousand dollars today. $23k away from $2m goal.
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“Blank 1st, major party candidate 2nd” is an incredible new genre of voter.
Correction to an earlier tweet. Despite ME-02 being a two-way race, of the ~13K voters who wrote-in or left round 1 blank, 1377 voters STILL ranked a legit candidate second, breaking 962-415 Golden. Would only matter in a SUPER tight race - but not totally insignificant.
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Here's a "100 Days" comparison: . Would you vote to re-elect? . Trump (2017).36% Yes .55% No. Obama (2009).52% Yes.31% No. (Fox News Poll)
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The people crafting these tweets are professionals. They chose not to identify which side is sowing "violence" and "seeking to divide us."
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From the Fox News Poll of Minnesota -- among SUBURBAN WOMEN. Black Lives Matter.68% favorable.27% unfavorable. Donald Trump .28% favorable.71% unfavorable.
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Three moments when media opted to cover Clinton significantly more than Trump throughout whole campaign:. • FBI.• pneumonia .• FBI
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Sinclair recently upgraded these pro-Trump local TV segments to 9 required airings per week.
Boris Epshteyn's pro-Trump segments on Sinclair "come as close to classic propaganda" as @DavidZurawik has ever seen
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Republicans are now more satisfied with the "moral and ethical climate" of the country than they have been for 8+ years
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The GOP tax bill appears to have given Democrats an 8-point lead on the issue of taxes. (It was tied in August.)
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A sikh mayor in Hoboken. A black woman in Charlotte. A transgender woman VA Delegate in Manassas and 2 Latinas in Prince William. A socialist in Richmond. All firsts.
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Oh man, they all have one
Democrats about to pass health care bill that no one’s read - where is the transparency? What a disgrace!.
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Here's the letter from Coretta Scott King that just got Warren banned from speaking during debate.
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Part of the impact of this moment will come from the fact it was not expected. A 46-30 plurality of independents and a 61-21 majority of Republicans nationwide thought Trump would NOT be convicted of anything. Nationwide, only 36% of voters expected a conviction.
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New Politico poll - majorities trust teachers unions (along with school administrators and Biden) on school reopening. By 55-34, Americans think reopening should wait till teachers are vaccinated.
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Sign of the times: Support for Trump impeachment has been stuck at “Nixon 1 month before resignation” level for about 2 years.
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Stunning visualization. In raw numbers the "Gen X and younger" generations just absolutely leapfrogged over "Boomer and older." . An overall increase of 25.5 million votes from 2014. 86% (21.9m) of the increase came from Gen-X-and-younger.
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As @daveweigel noted, a tremendous improvement for Trump who won 4% in 2016 and lost by 87 points. Surely one of his best polls of the cycle.
#NEW DC Poll:. Biden 88% (+79).Trump 9%. @SurveyMonkey (LV, 9/19-10/16).
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A COVID-positive Senator intends to show up at the Capitol just so GOP can confirm a nominee before the election, because they are worried they will lose the election and quickly lose legitimacy if they wait till everyone is COVID negative.
NEW: Wisconsin U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson says he'll vote to confirm SCOTUS nominee Amy Coney Barrett even if he's still testing positive. "If we have to go in and vote, I've already told leadership I’ll go in a moon suit," Johnson says on talk radio.
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This is insane. CA-39 candidate Young Kim claiming that late-counted ballots leaning more Democratic -- as has pretty much been the case throughout recent California history and is currently the case across every competitive House seat in California -- would indicate "foul play".
The Young Kim Campaign is standing up for the democratic process, the will of the majority of voters, and is emphatically committed to every legal vote being counted.
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It does make you wonder how they feel about taking polls.
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Trump last week: "The miners are coming back!". Top coal boss: "He can't bring them back." .
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Among likely voters under 30 in UTAH: . McMullin: 33%.Clinton: 27%.Johnson: 15%.Trump: 13%.Stein: 2%.
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Gillum's authenticity, like with Beto, is one of his greatest strengths.
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Actually the margin of error applies to each candidate’s support, not the difference between the two. She could be up by 9.
PLEASE keep in mind: the Selzer poll includes a margin of error! Kamala could actually be up by 6.
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Anyway, for context, Trump starts his presidency popularity-wise around where George W. Bush was post-Katrina.
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Here is Rubio's justification for opposing the Syria strike in 2013, btw.
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Married WOMEN who say they are voting for Hillary Clinton: 45%. Married MEN who think their SPOUSE is voting for Hillary Clinton: 33%
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This is just wild. Another one. As mentioned before, the Democratic lean of these late ballots is both expected and completely mirrored in other top CA races. There is no way Walters does not know this.
The campaign of Republican California Rep. Mimi Walters, whose lead is shrinking as votes are counted, is fundraising by saying Dems are trying to "steal" her seat "after the fact" and warning that she has to make sure "vote tallies aren't tampered with."
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Trump's 37% approval as PEOTUS is lower than Obama's all-time low with @QuinnipiacPoll, 38%.
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This Fox News story is every bit the contemptible, lightweight political hit job Moore's people are pretending the Washington Post story is.
One of the women accusing Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual impropriety reportedly worked as a sign language interpreter for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, a new report claims.
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“A little noise” strikes me as one of those “if the roles were reversed” things that would become like a 5-day Fox story that we would be hearing about in op-eds and the occasional speech for the next 2-4 years.
WATCH: @chucktodd follows up with @SecPompeo on his statement that America is "absolutely" safer today after the killing of Soleimani. "We do expect retaliation on American citizens, correct?". "It may be that there's a little noise here in the interim." #MTP #IfItsSunday
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To add insult to injury the poll also says he would throw the election to Trump
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new axios/surveymonkey poll: . 29% of young Republicans positive towards socialism
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The states. Trump +18.Trump +20.Trump +30.
"If the Republicans sweep these 3 red-state gubernatorial races . I think you're going to have nothing but impeachment to thank," @chucktodd says on #MTPDaily.
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This is a pretty striking interview for suggesting how far the conservative policy solution to the pandemic has congealed around “I’m sorry, you’re breaking up…”.
TAPPER: Governor, if Mississippi were a country, you would have the 2nd worst per capita death toll in the world. And I'm saying, are you going to do anything to try to change that?. TATE REEVES: Deaths unfortunately are a lagging indicator
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8-point increase among Republicans since May.
NEW: CNN Poll finds 80% of Republicans, 88% of Independents, and 92% of Democrats want Mueller to issue a public report.
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Net-favorability among under-30s. 39 Michelle Obama. 37 Bernie Sanders. 35 Barack Obama. 0 Hillary Clinton .-46 Donald Trump. (@yougovUS).
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Last night Democrats did historically (and unexpectedly) well in the heart of Biden-Republican country. This is the O.C. supervisor district of Michelle Steele, who won her 2018 primary with 63% (the Dem got 25%) and now represents the 48th CD. It's R+8 by registration.
A Democrat win this supervisor seat in Orange County, with a 8-Point Republican advantage, means they have successfully won back a seat they haven’t held since prior to the last pandemic. Yes, it’s been held by a Republican since before the Spanish Flu!
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Interesting wrinkle in the Beto ad wars/fundraising story. "Last month, Cruz and super PACs supporting him ran TV ads statewide that were nearly 80 percent negative, while O’Rourke’s were 100 percent positive.".
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In mid-2015, Sweden had a refugee population 17 times the United States (per 1000 inhabitants) and 18% the rate of murders.
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i skimmed this and can confirm this sub-head is literally the entire argument. she said 'rigged' in a speech and so did trump once
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Gallup partisan gap in “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” goes from R+4 to D+14
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Important to take a step back & gawk at the fact that Biden leading by 7 points = modern-day landslide given state of polarization and also puts Trump just a couple points away from possibly winning due to a weird fluke in our electoral system (shared by 0 other democracies).
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Includes 2 states Trump won -- Pennsylvania and Iowa
Breaking 16 state AGs about to condemn Trump immigration order. States are: CA, NY, PA, WA, MA, HI, VA, OR, DC, CT, VT, IL, NM, IA, ME & MD.
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Trump's popular vote margin is the worst for a president in 140 years, 47th of 49 elections since 1824.
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Lots of smart thoughts about youth voting trends here, but this graphic (while not necessarily being that surprising) is the real jaw dropper.
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Democratic Senators in Arizona and Georgia goes from 0 to 4 over course of 2 years.
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If El Chapo taught us anything, it's that walls are impermeable for druglords
Ted Cruz wants to use $14 billion seized from El Chapo — to pay for the wall
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CLINTON seen as more: . - prepared.- knowledgeable.- positive.- presidential. TRUMP more:.- negative.- evasive .
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PUTIN Net-Favorability (YouGov/Economist Poll) among. Democrats.July 2014: -54.Aug 2016: -54. Republicans.July 2014: -66.Aug 2016: -27.
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Favorability rating by age group. Lots of interesting things going on here.
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Texas likely voters by age: . 65+: Trump +22.45-64: Trump +14.30-44: Clinton +8.18-29: Clinton +21.
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