Paul Mitchell
@paulmitche11
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Owner of Redistricting Partners and Vice President of Political Data Inc. Worked with VP Kamala Harris to help Josh Fryday get through the Bar exam.
Sacramento, CA
Joined December 2008
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Been saying this for a long time... voter registration is a joke. Just make everyone a voter, eliminate the stupid hurdle.
(Maybe puts me out of business, but, what the hell... it’s for democracy)
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@senatormelendez
Respectfully, Senator, this was your tweet in 2016 when no state had been certified.
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Some sad news for those of us who loved
@scottlay
. More coming soon, but for now we are all deeply hurt by this loss.
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That giant clicking sound is 10,000 Republican consultants and activists deleting their
#NeverTrump
tweets.
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For homework it said to put the words in alphabetical order. So,
@SenecaRoseSac
reorganized each letter in each word to be alphabetical.
She gets this from her daddy.
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Yo,
@NateSilver538
, gotta back off saying CA is a “big mess” just because we’ve made the tradeoff that (a) making sure every vote counts, is more important than (b) making sure reporters and elections forecasters have quick results to plug into their stories and models.
It's a bit more art than science at this point, but we were at ~D+33 as of late last night, and now we're at more like ~D+36 after reviewing the status of uncalled races. California's a big mess so definitely a margin of error on that calculation.
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For those of us who are mourning today, I would ask you to support the new Scott Lay Memorial Scholarship for students at
@orangecoast
college, where he and I met and where he forged his love for California politics and the community college system.
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Right now everyone is gabbing about who may run for the Speier seat, and I’m missing
@scottlay
who would be out with an Emergency Nooner and updating all of Sacramento on the local machinations.
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Dear reporters: Before you put pen to paper, I’m warning you, this is a total nothingburger made up BS conflating actual voter rolls (active voters) with who aren’t on the voter rolls at all (inactive voters), basically old registration files in storage. Don’t believe the hype.
BREAKING: Judicial Watch signed a settlement agreement with the State of California & the County of L.A. under which they’ll begin the process of removing from voter registration rolls up to 1.5 million inactive registered names that may be invalid. (1/8)
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Three flawed Biden drop-out theories we can put to bed:
1) Dems will have $$ problems. The Campaign account has been transferred and
@KamalaHarris
raised $66m in half a day. Most ever on Act Blue.
2) The process will be chaotic. With Biden endorsement and almost every major
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Just did an interview where the guest before me literally read the data I emailed out this morning, gave the insights from that same email, then the host kicked to me and said "Paul, what do you think about all this?"
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I’m at a coffee shop in Manhattan and these people next to me are debating if they could live in California, and one guy is saying “they have great Cuban food and great beaches” in Santa Rosa.
How can I just sit here and stay silent?
Now they’re mispronouncing Carmel.
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Memorial for Scott will be held tomorrow, October 11 at the Sterling Hotel in Sacramento from 4-6 p.m.
For those who can make it, Scott’s family and friends would appreciate it. Indoor and outdoor accommodations. Scott would want only vaccinated guests. No leaf blowers allowed.
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@kairyssdal
@scottshafer
Hey, Kai. I have talked wirh the SOS and those ballots will be counted. The registrars could contact the voters to confirm that they did use the boxes and their intentions were to submit the ballots. But CA isn’t into disenfranchising voters. Happy to talk with you about it.
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OMG. You guys are killing me. This from a 2016 Nooner. "These friends you make now will (or at least should) be friends for life. Treasure them."
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One year from today all eyes will be on Iowa’s 2 million voters, some tiny subsection of which will be going to the caucuses.
In California, one year from today, 16 million California voters will be sent ballots in the mail.
Can’t wait to see how campaigns and media react.
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Trying to draw CA conculusions from the
#GA06
result? Remember, if GA06 was in CA, it would be the third most Republican by Pres vote.
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Horrible personal news for our friends and family in California progressive politics.
Our friend Rebecca Taylor has passed away after a motorcycle accident in Utah. Her mom and dad were with her in the hospital, along with almost all of her brothers and sisters.
She was
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So touched by this remembrance from
@anthonyyork49
who
@scottlay
loved and looked up to. Thanks to all who have reached out with their stories. Deeply saddened by his passing. ❤️
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There is still nothing
@realDonaldTrump
has done during his presidency that would shock anyone with eyes wide open during the 2016 campaign.
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My dad loved life, loved being a teller of stories and fount of knowledge, loved making friends with strangers, loved a hot mocha, and loved his kids. He was kind and cheerful even as his health declined.
Love you dad. Will miss you every day.
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Proposition 1 can be called now. It is up by 22,000 votes, which doesn’t seem a lot, but of the remaining 150k ballots outstanding that means the No side would need to win 86,000 - 64,000.
Take the 40k+ from Alameda County that prop 1 wins by double digits off the table, and
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This is soooo smart. Packed
#DemConvention2024
then livestream into it from a packed rally, filling the location of the recent Republican convention. Such a crowd-size trolling!
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I'm gonna need a cheat sheet to remember all the ins and outs of this administration after it is over.
Bannon friend says Breitbart ramping up for war against Trump. "It's now a Democrat White House," source says.
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And there it is. 4.48 million outstanding ballots. More still coming in, but not all will be valid. And these are still estimates.
Would put total turnout at 60%. With more to come and not all being valid, this is the first good ballpark turnout number.
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When people who are high make pie charts.
A good clue that you’ve done something terribly wrong is when the 51% doesn’t make up even one half of the pie.
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I am hereby announcing my campaign for Mayor of Sacramento on the single issue of putting Claritin in our drinking water from March through July of every year.
Sorry
@Mayor_Steinberg
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FACT: All this vote count conspiracy bullshit is just a dry run for 2020.
Glad to see CA reporters like
@markzbarabak
@johnmyers
@jfwildermuth
@kevinyamamura
@BryanRAnderson
explaining the process and making it clear that this is a legitimate part of making every vote count.
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In an amazing sweep,
@GavinNewsom
just put the past four governors, Pete Wilson,
@JerryBrownGov
,
@GovernorDavis
and
@Schwarzenegger
on home isolation!
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If anyone’s watching
@nbcbayarea
I’m about to go live and discuss the recall election with
@rajmathai
…
🚨 Breaking news: we surpassed 2 million votes cast and are at 10% turnout with 20 days of voting left!
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You know Election Day in California is nearing when the LA Times runs a column calling me a guru.
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And, I’m disappointed by the response from the
@CHP_HQ
who have his name and license plate, have him on video admitting he broke the law and threatening me, but said only they would “maybe” contact him “if they had time.”
P.S. I’m documenting here in case Rick kills someone.
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Tell me you’re not a serious candidate without telling me you’re not a serious candidate.
Gavin Newsom’s campaign BANNED me the second I showed up WITH a ticket at the Newsom/Warren event. I’m never disruptive; I show up very quietly and nicely. At least 3 staffers have tried to tell me to leave the area now. Democratic Party is not inclusive. Very sad.
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ICYMI. I think
@scottlay
’s family and friends got a great tribute to our friend today. Thanks to
@johnmyers
for leading the event and
@lancerlewis
for an amazing and tasteful production for those who couldn’t be there in person. You can see it all here:
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Me: “I can’t wait until redistricting is over.”
Jodi: “I can’t wait until people stop trying to take away abortion rights.”
@jodihicks
always wins this game.
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Hey
@CNN
, the graphic on your website is misleading. Obama is 6'1" and Putin is 5′ 7″. So, I fixed it.
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Could really use a good
@scottlay
election pool right now. Tons of races, and there’s gonna be a good number of surprises in a low turnout election!
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If you believe in a healthy two party system, and that America’s version of a democracy (flaws and all) is worth preserving, then you shouldn’t freak out when your favorite hamburger joint makes a political donation to one of them.
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Republicans last had 7 members of the California delegation in 1947... when California had only 23 seats.
My need to update again. If David Valadao falls in
#CD21
, Republicans will have just SEVEN of California's 53 House seats. Seven.
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If you're into politics and data, this is my election cycle tradition...free data on who in CA has returned a ballot, and you can get it emailed to you for free every morning for any legislative, congressional, city or other districts. Sign up here:
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I hope the
@PlacerSheriff
isn’t enforcing this since I want to drive without chains and it’s my American right to disregard government mandates if I don’t believe in them.
⛓️Chains required eastbound I-80 from Kingvale to
#Truckee
.
⛓️Chains required westbound I-80 from Donner Lake Interchange to 3 miles west of Kingvale.
#TrafficAlert
#CAwx
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I’m praying for some fixes, often cringe and see shortcomings, but there’s no rational basis to suggest that having elected officials draw their own lines is better than
@WeDrawTheLines
and other independent commission process. I will debate anyone on that!
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Having to set our clocks back on Sunday, extending this campaign a single goddamn hour, is cruel and unusual punishment.
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How do you make one seat on a plane cost you more than three entire new planes? Great job
@united
!
United Continental shares fall 3.4% in early trading, wiping out $730M in market value amid scandal
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Some knew
@scottlay
for his work with the Nooner, but this is a part of him that many of his newer friends may not have seen.
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Today is the ten year anniversary of
@scottlay
sending out an Emergency Nooner saying that the CA State Supreme Court had thrown out the
@WeDrawTheLines
lines. As I recall, at least one paper ran with it before realizing it was an April Fools joke.
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More post-election tidbits... in the next Congress, not a single University of California campus or major facility will be represented by a Republican.
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There is nobody in America more afraid tonight than everyone who has texted Alex Jones since 2019. Thoughts and Prayers.
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@FlashReport
@GavinWax
Then take the government all the way out of it. But if you’re creating a government that is forcing women to carry every pregnancy to term, then you can’t just look at these needs and say “well, that’s not the government’s responsibility!”
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Twitter is where I come for people to tell me how many registered voters there are in California.
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New Years in CA, but will take about a month for us to check all the calendars and make sure. Official results due February 7th or so.
#2019
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My new favorite emails are those from people who subscribed to the
@Political_Data
Absentee Ballot tracker, but now tell me to take them off the damn list because they don't like what the numbers are showing.
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@AaronBlake
Please rephrase in reference to The Godfather. Your World War I metaphors have no place here.
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People say people in cars and people on bikes should both follow the law, and that’s good and all... but we should acknowledge that the latter is spending half their time in fear that the former is going to kill them.
Both are equals, but it’s not an equal playing field.
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Having time to reflect on these maps, the real takeaway is that California lost a congressional seat, and despite growing Latino population, the erased seat (for now) is the 40th, the most Latino seat in the state. It is gobbled up and becomes a 40% Latino seat. Wow.
For those tracking the
@WeDrawTheLines
process, here's some free access to the draft Congressional and Legislative plans with partisan and ethnic breakdowns. Visit our Public Mapping Room here:
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So, you wanna compare Vote By Mail rates to 2012 General? I'm game, but first... digest this... Who votes by mail has changed dramatically.
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Maybe to put it clearer... you could say, have a thing where you register when you turn 18 (kinda like applying for the draft) but then eliminate the always having to register when you move or whatever. You can just show up and vote anywhere you live in the US. Period.
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This is the third update in the LA Mayors race where the margin has been either 60-40 Bass or 59-41 Bass.
Three of these establishes a clear direction and a challenge for anyone to come up with an intellectually honest reason why it would flip back.
🚨Another Big
#LAMayor
Update🚨
@KarenBassLA
more than doubles her lead to 9,463 votes over
#RickCaruso
. now leads 51%-49%
Today's tally continues a post-election trend that has moved in a consistent pattern for
@KarenBassLA
over
@RickCarusoLA
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Get in your Sunday workout! And get some sweet, sweet, redistricting talk.
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Don’t forget to turn your clocks back tonight, because some idiot decided we need just one more hour of this election cycle.
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Today I celebrate 30 years of sobriety. Celebrate with me by donating $30 to
@SaintJohnsPRC
and I will match it.
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🚨 ALERT: its “oh, shit, my candidate is losing, I better start being nice to the staff from the other campaign” O-Clock. 🚨
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Do I dare listen to this? By my count every Democratic incumbent was the top vote getter in the primary - and there’s still millions of ballots to be counted and it’s a bit premature to be making this kind of assertion. What’s goin’ on over there my
@FiveThirtyEight
friends?
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Anyone who complains on Twitter about gas prices and inflation and is calling on government to fix them, then, post-shooting posts a round of “thoughts and prayers” and “there’s evil in the world, nothing government can do” is honestly full of shit.
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Having worked in voter data for more than a decade, I’m highly suspect of this kind of analysis. Voter files are too fluid and partisan registration is so inconsistent around the country - with some states not even recording partisanship. Lots of potential errors here.
Thousands of suburban swing voters who turned against Donald Trump's Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back, according to a new
@AP
analysis of nearly 2 million recent party switchers.
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No matter your party or candidate preferences, this voter fraud stuff is crazy, irresponsible, and an affront to democracy. And being called a “guru” all the time is pretty funny. ;)
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Let the California unprocessed ballots projection game start! I’ll go first.
Statewide there are probably 2.5 million ballots to count.
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Who amongst us hasn’t crashed at least once from stopping then being unable to clip out in time?
President Biden took a spill on his bike in Rehoboth this morning, struggling to get his clipped shoes out of the pedals. “I’m good,” he said when asked if he was ok, appearing in good spirits and speaking with some locals.
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Abortion, seen by some as such a controversial issue, now has more votes for it in Prop 1 than any other ballot measure or any statewide candidate.
#Prop1
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For those who say the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, here’s an old broadcast I found with Dad interviewing LA Councilmembers on illegal contributions they received.
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It happened again! Every morning
@SenecaRoseSac
is supposed to say goodbye to mom before she leaves the house, or
@jodihicks
will track her down. Today Seneca left early to get
@templecoffee
… so she got a visit from mom in her robe.
#AlwaysSayGoodbye
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Let me introduce you to my new friend Rick. Today he felt it necessary to buzz me at high speed while I was in the bike lane. He kindly stopped to tell me that it was my fault and that he was gonna slit my throat.
Oh, and the
@CHPSacComm
isn’t doing anything about it. 1/5
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This couldn’t be closer. And if anyone tells you right now that they know ballots are gonna shift to Bass post Election Day, or shift to Caruso… let’s be clear: they don’t. I don’t. Nobody does. Not yet.
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@AveryTheComrade
@sookuhtawn
Try traveling to China. Was at the end of a five hour bus ride, roll up on a city I’ve never heard of in the middle of nowhere… ask “how big is this city?” And they say, “oh, 10 million”. Like bigger than any city in the US. And this province had a half-dozen cities that size.
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