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Schrödinger's pandemic. Where the UK government is doing nothing to mitigate Covid-19 risks, mass infecting people leading to mass deaths, and at the same time mitigating not only Covid, but also other respiratory diseases.
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@JujuliaGrace
Aren't you continuing as normal by posting regular tweets?
In your opinion, entertainment shows, sports, etc., should NOT continue as normal, but Twitter, Facebook, etc., should – is that right?
Have you compiled a list of things that should and should not continue as normal?
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I think the cacophony over the latest Cochrane review on masks results largely from a flawed or outdated understanding of EBM and “hierarchy of evidence”. Systematic reviews don't sit at the top of the hierarchy, Trish does.
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This list is a farce. It's incoherent, inconsistent, absurd.
1. It's COBR, but true.
2. True, it's ignored.
3. Pandemic was NOT treated as if it were influenza. It was treated as though it was caused by a virus that came from another galaxy.
No. Not getting the big calls right.
Instead, letting the bodies pile higher.
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@Mymblemum
@PWGTennant
Yeah, 'cause Latvia had a great pandemic. Does reality ever bother you?
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The clashes between The Zero Covid People's Front amd The People's Front of Zero Covid are mildly amusing, I have to admit.
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@cjsnowdon
As weird as YouGov respondents are, there's a similar if a little less extreme problem with ONS surveys – 21% claim they wear a “face covering” outside their home. That makes me think there's a big acquiescence bias in addition to and more than potential sampling biases.
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5. Sending Covid+ people from hospitals into care homes was a horrible, hysterical decision, taken in panic mode. It was to make space for the millions of inpatients which the likes of Neil Ferguson prophesised.
Note this garnered sparse to no attention compared to “partygate”.
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@adamjkucharski
In short, your argument is
“We can't protect a proportion of a society. We can protect an entire society.”
It was a fantasy at the time. Now we have accumulated huge amounts of evidence that it's bonkers. And you stick by it? It's a shame that you do.
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Throwing away in the last two years decades of respect you gathered, embarrassing yourself by recommending people to stuff sanitary pads (clean, obv.), etc. is one thing, but trying to score political points over the illness of the 95-year-old monarch is a new low, even for her.
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Summary:
Man travels 110,000 miles this year (wearing a mask) to sell his book.
Man catches a respiratory virus.
Man blames others who didn't wear masks.
Man has a panic attack; wears a Holter monitor.
Holter monitor hurts man's skin 😢
Man is fine, apart from the hypochondria.
As a gift to yourself, your loved ones and your community this holiday season, I am BEGGING you to wear masks, so that fewer people have to wear hardware like this, as I have been. (It’s much harder to wear than a mask!!) And I am REALLY begging govt offials to create mandates.
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@NHSMillion
Maybe their workers have the ability to read?
Read the small print – That is only if you work between midnight and 5 am. Starting hourly rate is £8.25. Not only you are disrespecting another profession, but also using disinformation while doing it. Shame on you.
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Your reminder that “big spikes in covid cases” due to Eat Out To Help Out don't exist.
It's incredible that such an obvious and easy-to-check claim gets repeated over and over deliberately by liars and mindlessly by the gullible.
Matt Hancock admitting to covering up big spikes in Covid cases due to Rishi Sunak's Eat out to Help Out scheme.
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You've been continuously wrong on just about everything. I'd follow and trust an actual duck-billed platypus over you.
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@HelenRSalisbury
Honest comment: if you stopped complaining about other people not wearing masks & in general trying to make mask-wearing a thing, you'd get more support for improved ventilation where necessary if that's really sth you want. At the moment you're just preaching to an echo chamber.
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When it comes to masks, Cochrane reviews are “highly problematic”.
“Simply Google Twitter and N95s” and *do your own research*.
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Eat Out To Help Out is being mentioned again with predictable hyperbole in relation to Covid-19. As “recollections may vary”, here's a reminder of what we're talking about.
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@VintageMrHobbes
@MahyarTousi
@ZubyMusic
Richard's caught a few in the net, hasn't he? 😂 I love how he's committed to not breaking character.
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Had this little angel euthanised at the age of 14.5 yesterday and buried today (nasty tumour in her lower jaw). She'd been with us since 2017. She was the sweetest cat I've ever met, had not a nasty bone in her. She'd give you hugs, sit on your shoulder and purr away.
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I was in Rhodes last week. Only a token few wore masks at the airport. Not a single soul wore a mask on the airplane. Not a single one wore it at the airport in Rhodes either. I wasn't even in the same room as a mask, let alone a masked person. I didn't get Covid. It's a miracle.
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@DPJHodges
They are facing an oblivion. They should've thought about it before kicking him out. This is desperate now.
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@GrahamMedley
I don't see the sense here at all.
What mitigations would you want to see? Be clear – “somebody do something!” mentality got us into the mess we have been in.
Are we still pretending that infection rates keep doubling to infinity if we don't have “mitigations”?
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8. “Herd immunity” is not a strategy. It's a natural phenomenon.
9. First lockdown should have never happened. Neither should the second and the third. Labour, sadly, has become a parody – “earlier, harder, longer”.
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@bmay
A bit of a political correction for Simon, once again.
Saying “British insistence on passport stamp causing holiday chaos” is absolutely bonkers.
The UK did not “insist” on the French performing an outdated bureaucratic ritual. It's 100% based on French / EU politics.
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@JobbingLeftieH
I disagree. First, it isn't a sacrifice if you are forced to do it under threat of punishment. Second, and more importantly, it wouldn't have made the slightest difference if BJ and his band followed the rules. The rules are the problem – they've always been the problem.
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@SGriffin_Lab
You know this is wrong. You have been told it is wrong, and why it is wrong*.
Why do you do it?
* Cases peaked on 28–29 March, before Easter.
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Many believe that if Labour were in power, we'd have had longer lockdowns and more Covid authoritarianism in general.
I don't. Not because Labour wouldn't try to – they absolutely would. But because there would be an opposition to speak of.
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@BallouxFrancois
It wasn't an “inherent” feature of the system. It was a choice to pretend there's no cost to overreacting. It was a choice to reward academics estimating the end of the world.
No one held a gun to Edmunds' head, he made a choice to go with it. I've no sympathy for him.
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6. Silly and trivial.
7. WHO has been phenomenally bad at giving correct and useful advice. “Test, Test, Test” is not a recommendation. It's meaningless garbage.
Remember that all the testing in the world did not have an observable effect on UK's third wave of infections.
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It's depressing that the Covid Kardashian, Christina Pagel, who is apparently also a mathematician, doesn't understand the concept of mutually exclusive categories on comparing death statistics. And she chooses to show this in front of D. Spiegelhalter. 🤦
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There is some level of revisionism going on, regarding the history of Covid-19 modelling by SAGE.
The 'Winter scenarios' for 2020 Covid deaths is the classic example of the wrong/outdated models and misleading use of data guiding policy in the UK.
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Amazing to see the pearl-clutching responses to Alasdair's thread, in November 2022! Arguing that Covid infection does not provide as much immunity as vaccines is a bizarre hill to die on. It was stupid to say this in 2021, now it's far beyond. Especially for an immunologist.
Interesting comment here
As a matter of fact, the data suggest this is completely wrong
Let’s look at a few studies comparing protection from covid vaccination vs infection
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@ytcitraining
@narysestorey
"How come people in the UK don't mind so many people having covid - the hospitals are full and so many deaths?"
I don't know – Germany, where you live, is more of an authority on Covid deaths at the moment, let's ask them.
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@BallouxFrancois
If only the cut-off were 60 days instead of 90, it'd be adding at least 90% extra cases, and 7 million Long COVIDs. 🧵 1/427
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@cjsnowdon
Half term, ran out of tests, government is hiding data, re-infections are counted only after 90 days, people aren't testing because of advice change, it's exponential, Very Long Covid.
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@statsjamie
What does he think he's achieving by trying to make it look worse than it is in Wales?
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@JG_THE
@devisridhar
@timeshighered
You misspelled “Academic wannabe politician who got virtually everything wrong about the pandemic whilst dishing out vitriol to others, reflects on two years of pandemic profiteering.”
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@princessjack
@JustRowena
Well said. Remember the woman who was left “shocked and mortified” because a lorry driver urinated behind his lorry? I'm trying hard to feel something other than contempt for these people.
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@devisridhar
Are you now prioritising economy over lives? Can't keep track of what you are on about.
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@rwjdingwall
@GrahamMedley
@FraserNelson
@doug_no1
@TAH_Sci
@juji_gatami
I think so too. I'm slightly worried that he doesn't quite see the implications of what he's saying. If he does, all the more impressive...
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@PaulStenton1
@CMO_England
@SmallRedOne
@EmmaHowardBoyd
@OfwatChair
“Keep airborne Virus & Bacteria out of our air”
I'll file this just above “Bring back unicorns”. In the meantime though the adults will be discussing some slightly more important problems such as keeping human faeces out of our waterways and holding water companies to account.
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@freddiesayers
I'm watching in awe the coalition between Hancock, Caroline Lucas, The Guardian, Labour MPs, Andrew Lilico, teaching unions, “independent sage”, etc.
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@ReicherStephen
For your analogy to be in the ballpark, it would've been announced that all passengers would have to do something utterly irrelevant and useless, such as eating nuts under a veil, to protect the person with the nut allergy.
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@dobssi
@firefoxx66
This is the problem. Seemingly and presumably intelligent people have so much emotional capital invested in masks that they can't engage in a dispassionate and rational argument.
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@mugecevik
"And, crucially, researchers will need to control for the level of economic deprivation."
Thank you for reiterating this. It doesn't get mentioned enough...
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Another passionate speech by Sir Charles Walker in the Commons yesterday. 💔
"The language we used about these people [carers], who for whatever reason, may be a needle phobia like me, have chosen not to get vaccinated are somehow deserving of our bile is a disgrace."
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4. Stop trying to rewrite history. WHO did not recommend banning flights from anywhere, and lefties were adamantly against such measures. Remember, Trump did something similar, and remember the response.
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We didn't crumble after 17/22.
We remember and we will never forget. Freedom is more powerful than fear.
We have an obligation, a duty, a responsibility to defend, preserve and protect our democracy.
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PS: I have to add, although I said “2. True, it's ignored”, this is in contradiction to the rest of the list.
The pandemic preparedness plans of UK (and the West in general) didn't include dehumanising and ineffective measures such as lockdowns and mandatory masking.
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Modellers seem to take the criticism of their work personally and get highly defensive. Please have some humility and use the opportunity to review and revise your assumptions that don't work so well.
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17. I don't remember any public figure criticising and calling out the Nightingale hospitals whilst they were being built and opened.
Besides, this contradicts item 29.
18. Eat Out to Help Out had NO discernible impact on the pandemic's trajectory. It's a myth that it did.
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@artbyailbhe
@Cox_A_R
@R_Hughes1
@RealSexyCyborg
@zexpe
@apsmunro
@BallouxFrancois
Maybe in a severely deranged mind it didn't, true.
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“But a well-fitted FFP2 is EXTREMELY effective”
“Many countries (e.g. Italy, Austria) made FFP2s obligatory.”
EXTREME efficiency of mandatory FFP2 masks on display here. But do facts matter?
Example 2...
Masks are a contentious subject here in UK
One of the objections is "But they don't work"
That is actually largely true of cloth masks & omicron.
But a well-fitted FFP2 is EXTREMELY effective.
But where in UK public messaging have we been told this?
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@KettGeneral
This is a cruel and unnecessary decision. My mother-in-law is under your care and you are denying her and her family a humane and evidence-based treatment.
@SteveBarclay
.
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April 2020 – Trisha Greenhalgh:
“If 80 to 90% of us do it, and if the masks were say 80-90% effective, that would probably – the modellers say – be enough to reduce the effective R0 down to wipe out this disease and we can all get on with our lives”
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19. Mandatory masks completely failed to show any benefit. Scotland and Wales had higher rates of infections than England when they had mandatory masks and England didn't.
20. This is just a silly defensive line from the government for item 5.
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@bbc5live
@BBCSounds
My opinion is that she is a lunatic who has been wrong on Covid from the beginning and you shouldn't be platforming crazy people giving harmful advice on a radio show that's funded by the taxpayer.
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In addition to being promoted by the same people who tried to redesign the society to their liking, what makes me a mistruster of the “ventilate” campaign is that they aren't focussing on healthcare settings where real, significant and permanent benefits would be achieved.
@CathNoakes
@TAH_Sci
Do you ever feel like the “ventilate” campaign would've been more successful if many of the activists focussed, from the beginning, on improved ventilation in public buildings, especially care homes, surgeries, etc., instead of trying to force everyone to wear masks?
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Getting a cable guy fired on the spot because he wouldn't give in to a loopy hypochondriac's demands is now considered “compassionate”.
Do the “right thing” and make people's lives a misery because you are scared and can't think logically.
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@FLAHAULT
Nothing you said there is true.
Mask mandates are a fantasy.
The measure proved ineffective in reducing circulation of Covid-19, influenza, etc.
It didn't protect people.
It didn't protect healthcare system from overwhelming.
It didn't help avoid tougher interventions.
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@CathNoakes
Maybe the table was sticky and they didn't want it on their sleeves? Not everything is about Covid. 🤷
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@JonAshworth
What did they cover up, Jonathan? There was and still is a dashboard, how did they cover it up? If you bothered to fact-check whether EOTHO “helped covid spread”, you'd know there's no data to suggest that. This is really shameful for a sitting Labour MP.
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“People wearing masks in winter when visibly ill [...] was a norm I'd have been quite happy to see pre-COVID”
It's because you're weird. Academics stopping talking absolute garbage and giving false and harmful advice would be something I'd be quite happy to see, to be honest.
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@atliberalandold
@BallouxFrancois
That tweet wasn't mocking “those of us who are high risk”. It was mocking those who get off terrorising people. I don't know how much clearer it could have been, especially with the follow-up tweet. 🤷
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Funny in a cringeworthy way to watch mask people tie t'selves up in knots responding to the Cochrane review update:
“Akshually, you're studying compliance, not efficacy”
“Ppl didn't wear masks properly😭”
Apparently, not even the people of the country of Asia did it properly.
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There are a number of things that are wrong with this article.
1. "[...] more than 400 deaths a day [...]"
False. Two years into the pandemic, the professor surely knows Tuesday and Wednesday *reported* deaths are always high due to reporting delays. The average number is ~266.
Are you worried about the end of Plan B in England, and how to protect yourself from
#Covid_19
now?
Here's my new piece for
@guardianopinion
.
#bettermasks
#PlanB
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16. If this is referring to the Welsh First Minister acting like a spoilt little dictator, True.
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@TheNickFoy
He's right though, even if it isn't 6-12 months. If you don't die within the first 6 months following an infection, you're practically guaranteed to die in 60-120 years. Horrible disease with 100% mortality, please stop minimising it.
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My bank, Lloyds, sent me a letter asking for proof of address for my car insurance. I'm thinking of sending the same letter back.
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@BillHanage
Viruses don't pay attention to bits of random fabric with which you wish to force people to cover their faces either.
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@Mymblemum
@PWGTennant
You need to correct it for the population.
Total UK per million: ~2,500
Total Latvia per million: ~3,000
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14. 2020 called, it wants its catchwords back. (It turned out that we didn't need to put every Covid patient on a ventilator, in fact we shouldn't).
15. Much equipment unusable – True.
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@ArchRose90
Amazing that she's doubling down. “If so, he needs to clarify and correct this”
Firstly, there is no “if” about it. Secondly, no, *you* need to clarify and correct this, and apologise.
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@LucyGoBag
So many things wrong with that thread. To start with,
“The reason we approved Pfizer and AZ faster than the EU initially was we took a gamble on safety and gave a waiver on liability.”
This is obviously wrong, but also disrespectful towards MHRA.
the EU procurement deal extra doses would have been redirected our way instantly.
c) The reason we approved Pfizer and AZ faster than the EU initially was we took a gamble on safety and gave a waiver on liability. The AZ blood clot thing shone a very harsh light on all that.
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@CathNoakes
This is wrong. There isn't “loads of evidence they work”, and wearing a mask is not “common courtesy”.
If you want to feel virtuous and signal how virtuous you are by wearing a mask, do go ahead. But, please stop giving false and harmful advice.
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