Robert Dingwall π―π΄σ §σ ’σ ³σ £σ ΄σ Ώ πͺπΊ Rejoin
@rwjdingwall
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Consulting sociologist, researcher, writer and entrepreneur. EU Collaborator. RT does not imply endorsement.
United Kingdom
Joined April 2013
I am seeing a lot of tweets about vaccinating UK teenagers and advocates getting air time in places like @BBCNewsnight As a JCVI member, I am constrained in what I can say right now. However, two things are worth considering (1/8).
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Surely we have enough experience of the unintended consequences of humans reshaping other ecosystems to suit their own ends not to rush into reshaping this one without really understanding what it would mean for human lives and immune systems (8/8).
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Given the low risk of Covid for most teenagers, it is not immoral to think that they may be better protected by natural immunity generated through infection than by asking them to take the *possible* risk of a vaccine. (3/8).
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A reminder: medicine cannot deliver immortality and it is profoundly damaging to society to imply that it can, if only we try hard enough. We are all going to die one day - the question is when and how, not whether (6/8).
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As a member of government advisory bodies, I have always felt it would be incompatible with that status not to wear a face covering where legally required to. However, I shall cease to do so from 19 July when these requirements lapse. (1/10).
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Notable that @BBCNews report from Wales only mentioned the European countries that were vaccinating 5-11 year olds and not the ones that had decided against. what happened to BBC impartiality here?.
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We always did breathe each other's exhaled viruses - that's what we have an immune system for. .
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I had an official reprimand last summer from the highest level of SAGE for noting the lack of justification for the 2 metre rule. although masks are not the miracle answer.Two-metre rule was βpicked at randomβ and βdoes not protect against catching Covidβ
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I am particularly concerned about the calls for Covid measures to continue to reduce all respiratory infections. As Rene Dubos noted 60 years ago, humans, viruses and bacteria form an ecosystem which has evolved over millennia. (7/8).
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Covid passports - the zombie policy that refuses to die no matter how many stakes get put through its heart. If you are fully vaccinated, knowing another person's vaccination status is irrelevant. If they decline protection, that is their problem not yours. RIP medical privacy.
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It is well past time to panic about infection rates and to publish them obsessively. Even hospitalization rates are increasingly misleading as better therapy reduces length of stay. Covid is now a long way from being an important cause of mortality (5/8).
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As a public health scientist, I think it is irresponsible to continue promoting fear and anxiety about the Covid-19 risks of Christmas when we cannot know the circumstances of every individual's life. (1/4).
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The risk/benefit for teenagers must be firmly established. The UK programme has already been modified because the risk/benefit of AZ was not clear for 20 and 30 somethings. Teenagers are at intrinsically low risk from Covid. Vaccines must be exceptionally safe to beat this (2/8).
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The pandemic will end through population immunity, whether from vaccination or prior infection. A last wave of mild infections in unvaccinated younger people may well be what we are now seeing. The ONS serology data are more important than vaccine uptake in assessing this. (4/8).
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The wording of Javid's tweet was crass - but the sentiment was correct. His experience is the future of Covid as an infection and it is time to move on from the fear that is continuing to drive policy and paralyse everyday life. (1/5).
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Press conference seems closer to the panic end of the spectrum than the calming noises from SA. Doubling down on increasingly discredited face coverings with new mandates.
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Appalled to learn that @PayPalUK have cancelled @UsforThemUK. What is happening when a serious and advocacy group for children is struck off? Even if you don't always agree with their positions, they are thoughtful and responsible. This is a real threat to public debate.
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If others take a different view, that is their prerogative. However, I will not allow them to suggest that I am less moral or caring and I will expect them to respect my choices as I respect theirs (10/10).
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You do not need to follow the debate among statisticians to recognize that what the Bangladesh trial has established is that we have strong (RCT) evidence that the benefit from masks in the community is either nil or minimal. For policy, it doesn't really matter which.
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Can't Twitter block the circulation of this fake poster? Has been doing the rounds since last year despite being repeatedly called out. This is real misinformation.
Less than half of my tube wearing masks. Please. Itβs hot hard to understand.
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Journalists are desperate for Plan B. .
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Any teacher who is at genuine individual risk will get vaccinated alongside other citizens with the same level of risk. However, the call for mass vaccination is little more than queue-jumping by a well-organized and articulate middle-class group (1/2).
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This is seriously dishonest. There have been various perturbations in reporting over the last few days which are now unwinding. The 7 day average or deaths by date of occurrence are the data we should be looking at. The author's public deserve better.
293 Covid deaths today. Or one fifth of the total no. of road traffic fatalities in an entire *year*. Yet we have seat belts, speed limits, drink driving laws etc. I want to know why @10DowningStreet seemingly doesnβt give a damn about Covid deaths. RT if you do too.
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It is time that the UK government started talking down the fear - or should we start to take some of the conspiracy theories about elite control and social credit systems more seriously? Do we have a government that is committed to liberty or do we not? (5/5).
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I shall do this because, as SAGE, ECDC, WHO, CDC, CEBM, etc have pointed out, the evidence of benefit in interrupting transmission from face covering is weak and ambiguous, allowing any partisan to cherry pick studies that suit their case (7/10).
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Why is there so much demand to mandate face masks when the Health Security Agency's own expert assessment is that the evidence base is poor? .
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I shall do this because, as the highly charged responses to the UK government's announcement have shown, the main reasons for covering faces are now about fear and anxiety which will not be eased by clinging any longer to these comfort blankets (8/10).
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Next virus could also be less lethal but it wouldn't make such a good headline. .
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People should be properly informed of the risks - and the uncertainties of the evidence for them - but it is for them to decide what risk/benefit balance to tolerate not for public health scientists or politicians to preach at them. (4/4).
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Rumours of Plan B. How many more dead cats are there in Downing Street? Are they all victims of the 2020 Christmas party - kept in the freezer until needed?.
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For the benefit of those who questioned the basis on which I suggested that it might not be immoral for children to acquire immunity through natural infection rather than through vaccination.
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I am 70 with no known co-morbidities. Several of my likely family visitors have already had Covid and recovered. They will still be largely immune from reinfection - risk is 1 in several million. I shall hug them freely. (2/4).
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Both of these groups have often had a hard time over the last 15 months from police officers, street marshalls, security guards, door staff and self-appointed busybodies (4/10).
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I have four grandchildren under 6. Children of this age represent a minimal risk. I shall hug them as freely as I have done all along because I think the value to each party exceeds the risk. (3/4).
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I shall do this as an act of solidarity with all the small children whose education has been disrupted by the lack of visual clues, especially in language development (6/10).
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I shall do this because I, too, am a moral person who cares about those with disabilities who are potential victims of discrimination, about small children whose development is disrupted, and about respect for scientific evidence (9/10).
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The new PHE surveillance report shows that seropositivity - antibodies present from some combination of infection and/or vaccination - in their blood donor data for 17-29 year olds is now 96.3% and still rising. What was the argument for a #VaccinePassport ?.
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Rarely block anyone in the interests of listening to diverse voices. Made an exception for Deepti because I am fed up with wilful misunderstandings and misrepresentations of my tweets.
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As some of us predicted at the time. !.
"There were no outbreaks linked to crowded beaches. There's never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach ever anywhere in the world to the best of my knowledge.". Epidemiologist Professor Mark Woolhouse talks about the "outcry" last summer over "pictures of crowded beaches".
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I shall do this as an act of solidarity with all the people with communication difficulties, whether auditory and unable to lip-read, or visual and unable to use sound for reliable interaction and navigation (5/10).
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I shall do this as an act of solidarity with all the people who have been exempt because of respiratory and neurodiverse conditions. (2/10).
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.@ClareCraigPath has been getting a hard time for questioning whether an asymptomatic infection can be a disease. She has a better grasp of the philosophical issue than her critics, which tells us something interesting about the difference between medicine and biology. (1/7).
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If we do not recalibrate or reboot our understanding of Covid to see it as a respiratory virus much like any other, we simply doom ourselves to an endless round of testing, outbreak controls, movement controls and the like. (3/5).
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I shall do this as an act of solidarity with all the people who have been exempt because of trauma induced by previous assaults or abuse (3/10).
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There may be little evidence that face masks harm children - few studies have been done. There is abundant evidence of the importance of facial engagement for child development from 50 years research in psychology, linguistics and education. Harm is a reasonable inference.
Thanks to LCDS Director @melindacmills for setting the record straight and leading with evidence. @LeverhulmeTrust @oxsocsci @NuffieldCollege @SociologyOxford.
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We create a society where a presumption of health and well-being is replaced by a presumption of sickness and danger. As sociologists have been pointing out for more than 100 years, trust is the foundation of everyday life. Humans cannot live in a world of endless suspicion (4/5).
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Preferring not to wear a face covering has a minimal impact on anyone's risk and does not make a person any more or less moral than those who do.
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If the government (and the medical profession) listened to parents, we would still be prescribing antibiotics for every viral throat infection, regardless of the public health implications for the development of antibiotic resistance. .
Why doesnβt the government listen to parents?π
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Before we rush out and install expensive air filtration equipment in every school classroom is there anyone else who thinks it might be a good idea to do an RCT and find out whether this has any impact on infection rates?.
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@leoniedelt @lensiseethrough I admire the professional integrity of the statisticians for putting such weak data in plain sight knowing that anyone with basic skills will then pull it apart, despite the accompanying narrative spinning in line with the policy preferred by their customers.
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I see that mask evangelists have re-emerged. For the benefit of anyone who wants to evaluate their arguments I am reposting three blogs First, reviews the epidemiology/public health evidence (1/3).
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Christmas greetings to those of all faiths and none - and a reminder of why we do what we do.
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It is time to scrap test and trace. The information is of no value in a vaccinated population. A population survey would be sufficient at a fraction of the cost.
We've got 3 months to rebuild test and trace. Because at the moment it's not working. And if we don't get it right now it will be September all over again. It needs on the ground public health specialists swarming over every outbreak.
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Worth noting SAGE report on 4/11."ONS data from 2 September (start of school) to 16 October show no difference in the positivity rates of primary and secondary school teachers and other worker groups" (2/2).
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One of the issues that needs to be resolved is the very clear conflict between the engineering view that 'masks work' and the evidence from community RCTs that they don't. Even the hierarchy of evidence is different. Not a basis for policy.
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A very clear account of the evolutionary questions that present problems for current pandemic management interventions? Could they be making things worse rather than better? .Mutant variations and the danger of lockdowns
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Given the limitations of the Bangladesh trial, 10% is likely to overestimate benefits, which gets us into a range where they may be outweighed by harms. The honest answer is we don't know. I am concerned by the lack of integrity among some eminent scientists who have retweeted.
The good thing about this story is that any time I see someone sharing it as evidence that wearing masks cuts Covid incidence by 53%, I know they havenβt read the paper itβs based on and arenβt fussed about the quality of evidence as long as it produces the right number π
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Would have been better if @guardian had also reported the accompanying editorial which questions the findings and underlines the lack of investment in quality research on NPIs, which some of us have been noting since last summer.
OH LOOKEY LOOKEY WHOβD THOUGHT IT. Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, reducing incidence by 53%, the first global study of its kind shows.
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Some reorganization of govt science advice. When the music stopped, my roles on NERVTAG and JCVI have come to an end today. This was decided some weeks ago and has no bearing on any recent events. (1/5).
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What are @BBCNews playing at on WATO with yet more airtime for Deepti's obsessions? Totally unquestioning interview advocating multiple measures above and beyond. Time to take more account of the science - @NickTriggle can do it. .
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This is so distressing. I spent 6 years of my early career researching child protection when my own kids were small. Reading the current stories when I have grandchildren of a similar age is very painful and evokes flashbacks. Was that research for nothing?.
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@GrahamMedley @FraserNelson @doug_no1 @TAH_Sci @juji_gatami I think @GrahamMedley is one of the good guys but this suggests that there is a fundamental problem of scientific ethics in SAGE. The unquestioning response to the brief is very like that of SPI-B's behavioural scientists. This needs to be addressed by the inquiry.
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This is not a particular secret and my own tweets will show that I did not consider there were any sinister motives.
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The bots are welcome to depart but I hope at least a few of you will stick with me on this new journey! (5/5).
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WHO are the last agency to put in charge of the next pandemic. This needs to be led by people who know about disaster management as a societal challenge not by specialists in biomedicine. Public health advice on tap not on top.
While the world looks towards Ukraine, the WHO is moving towards a global treaty which would tie member nations to a coordinated response to the next pandemic - and place the WHO powers ahead of the legislation, sovereignty and constitutions of countries.
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Openshaw is the nicest of people but way out of his depth here. 150 deaths unacceptably high compared with what? How many of these are deaths displaced from other causes? How did they come to be assigned to Covid rather than anything else? Who gets to decide what is acceptable?.
Wise words from @p_openshaw as always
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I have now been able to review the Warwick model that projects continuing Covid restrictions until late next year (1/7).
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The citizens of Nottingham are expected to believe this nonsense.
Covid cases remain high in our city. Wearing a mask helps to reduce the spread of the virus:. βοΈ One masked person protects another person.βοΈ Two masked people protect each other. Letβs keep staying safe from Covid-19 #TakeCareNottingham
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"There is no credible route to a Zero-Covid Britain or a Zero-Covid world. " PM in HoC.
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This is truly appalling and an utter breach of public health ethics. JCVI went to great lengths to discourage such behaviour but NHS Trusts are blithely going their own way. @sajidjavid must intervene.
In today's @Telegraph, our co-founder @lensiseethrough questions how free gifts with covid jab invitations for 5-11-year-olds are a "reasonable use of public funds". "It's incredible to think they would address letters to the kids. It crosses an unspeakable Rubicon".@sajidjavid
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There has been something of a moral panic about gatherings of young people in Nottingham parks. Some thoughts @BBCNottingham @bbcemt @NottinghamPost (1/8).
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Important evidence on the real likelihood of outdoor transmission of Covid-19 - and why masks would not help. It would take 31 days in Milan to inhale enough virus to cause infection in 2/3 of susceptible people and 51 days in Bergamo.
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Do UKHSA have compelling evidence of mask effectiveness that is not available to the rest of us? If so, will they publish it?.
#BREAKING The UK Health Security Agency has issued new mask advice for adults. In light of high levels of flu, COVID-19 and scarlet fever, adults are being advised to "stay home when unwell and if you do have to go out, wear a face covering.".
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Evan Davis on BBC PM desperately trying to push a new mask mandate. Where does he get it from? Thought economists understood risk and evidence on benefit/cost.
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Never again must we repeat the errors of the Covid lockdowns (paywall unless you have access through Nexis - sorry)
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Rather humbled to discover I now have 10K followers. Will try to be conscious of the responsibility to the ones who aren't bots. .
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There is currently a great deal of fear-mongering about Christmas visits in the UK. In order to assess the risk associated with a family or social visit within the rules, it is useful to consider some facts. The science is not exact but the orders of magnitude are secure (1/8).
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Swedenβs WHO figures must radically change the terms of the Covid inquiry
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What has been lost is the Joint CMOs' caution. The vaccine was supposed to be an offer not an expectation to be driven by a campaign of incentives, nudges and occasional threats. Perhaps we should reflect a little more on that. (6/6).
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MIT researchers say you're no safer from Covid indoors at 6 feet or 60 feet in new study challenging social distancing policies.
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Our pandemic exit strategy should be rational, not dictated by Covid anxiety
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NERVTAG's agreed words: "Early matched cohort analysis did not show a difference in mortality. limitations to the datasets. a realistic possibility that infection with the VOC is associated with an increased risk of death. preliminary findings . require continued analyses . ".
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At what point does the risk aversion of @MyNottingham become absurd. The Council is still enjoining residents to be anxious and creep about with covered faces wherever they go. Does this actually help with reducing fear and restoring normal life? #LetsStaySafe #LetsGoCarefully.
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This does not mean that we should forget the suffering and loss of earlier phases of the pandemic. These should be appropriately memorialized and studied. How would we minimize such experiences next time? How do we honour the victims? But they should not frame the future. (2/5).
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Depends which costs and benefits you recognise. Could equally well argue the opposite if you are not totally focused on Covid-19 and looking at the broader picture.
"If you look at the costs and benefits of getting it wrong, it's heavily in favour of delay". Prof Ravi Gupta tells @BBCsarahsmith when the June 21st date was set "it didn't take account of the new variant. which is more transmissible" . #R4Today.
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There is a choice. We can allocate vaccines according to the risk of serious illness and death or we can allocate them on the basis of privilege, lobbying or whoever shouts loudest. Is it consistent with the values of education to prefer the latter?.
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Let's be clear- for healthy under 12s this is a vaccine for parental anxiety or a zero-infection agenda that needs much more scrutiny of its social, economic and ethical implications.
So many people berating UKβs delay in vaccinating 5-11 yr-olds. Lets be honest about these vaccines. They prevent severe #COVID19 but will not stop kids from being infected or transmitting virus. Please vaccinate your kid if you are worried but be clear about why you are doing so.
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Alternatively you could see this as evidence of a functioning democracy, where elected representatives are defending the interests of their voters in a transparent fashion.
Leading scientist and Sage member Sir Jeremy Farrar tells #BBCNewscast that the row between Westminster and local leaders is βvery dangerousβ and βdamaging to public healthβ. π§ Listen to the full interview on @BBCSounds
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I declined to sign the GBD because of reservations about the operationalisation of focused protection. But it was a serious contribution by serious people and did not deserve the monstering it received. Much food for thought here.
On TV today Francis Collins doubled down on his lies and propaganda attack and on the Great Barrington Declaration. If you read the GBD, you will not find the words "let it rip" because the central idea is focused protection of the vulnerable.π§΅.(1/20).
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Reicher continues to duck the issue of whether any of the benefits he claims for masks have evidence to justify them. Without this, the social and economic costs are not acceptable. This is not a culture war but a disagreement about science and policy.
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Why would WHO appoint a chief scientist who thinks mask wearing is just a 'common sense' 'low risk' intervention rather than a matter for scientific inquiry? This is why WHO should not run pandemic responses.
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Er, no we don't. We need a leadership that recognizes that health is only one dimension of a good society. Public health can advocate for it but must also recognize that it is often appropriate to compromise on ideals in a liberal democracy.
"We need leadership for health and a vision that sees health as the highest law, and the highest policy objective.". @doctorblooz on 175 years of public health
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It would be a poor solution to the coming employment crisis to prop up Test and Trace as a job creation scheme or quarantines as a subsidy to the hospitality industry. Let's use those resources to create real jobs in a functioning economy. (7/7).
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Would not be as contestable if SAGE had thought it worth funding evaluations of NPIs instead of assuming they were just social stuff and not as important as the RECOVERY trial. SAGE own papers document the weakness of evidence and uncertainty of benefit.
Sad and regrettable when an issue such as wearing of masks becomes a party political issue
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I avoid wearing a mask unless required by law because I follow the science.
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Ashworth also signing up to endemic testing - for flu, RSV AND Covid. when did Labour become the party of medical imperialism rather than medical accountability?.
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