Michael Meyer-Resende
@meyer_resende
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Co-founder & Executive Director Democracy Reporting International. Author, speaker, analyst. Here: Private opinions.
Berlin & Lisbon
Joined October 2015
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% of Germans in favour of supporting Ukraine ("despite rising gas costs") is increasing. 74% in September. Good.
Oft war zu hören: Wenn die Preise weiter steigen und die Temperaturen sinken, dann sinkt auch die Solidarität mit der Ukraine. Im Gegenteil, die Solidarität steigt:
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German journalist Hubert Seipel, who was celebrated as a
#Russia
expert, published
#Putin
biography, lambasted war hysteria in the West in ... January 2022. Turns out he got 600,000 EUR from people close to Kremlin. Offshore account, oligarchs involved? Naturally.
Surprise! Der von 2014-22 von den Medien hofierte „Russland-Experte“ (aka Putin-Pudel) Hubert Seipel erhielt aus dem Umfeld von Putin über eine halbe Millionen Euro. Seit fast zehn Jahren warte ich auf solche Recherchen. 🙏
@SusaAmann
& Team.
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🇩🇪 20 Jahre: "Seid nicht hysterisch,
#Putin
ist ganz vernünftig. Man kann mit ihm Geschäfte machen." 🇩🇪 heute: "Putin ist ein Irrer mit Atomraketen, wir müssen uns jetzt klein machen, damit das nicht schiefgeht". Ergebnis: Wir machen´s ihm immer einfach.
#norealism
#Russland
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This is something: Increase of German exports to
#Poland
and
#Czech
Republic have more than compensated the export losses to
#Russia
and
#Belarus
in the first half 2022. And: German trade with Viesgrad-4 is bigger than with China & Czech R. is a bigger trade partner now than UK.
Sieh da! Neuer Höchstwert im Osthandel. Man sollte die wirtschaftliche Bedeutung Russlands nicht überschätzen. Der Rückgang im Russland-Geschäft wurde mehr als wettgemacht durch höhere Exporte nach Polen und Tschechien.
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Portugal wins. I knew it.
The real divide between northern and southern Europe is evident here.
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@Kasparov63
Indeed. Two massive failures of expert group think: 1. Russia won´t attack; 2. Ukraine has no chance. And still many experts seem to be very certain about what happens next... I prefer scenario-thinkers and dissidents.
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It was my pleasure & honour to meet
@avalaina
Nobel Peace Prize laureate from
#Ukraine
this morning at
@MunSecConf
. A lot to discuss, a lot to do.
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@floragaramvolgy
#Orban
said Russia is the future and Brussels the oppressor. Hope Hungarians assess his record in the next elections.
#Hungary
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@vonderleyen
The EU public is watching & expects very, very tough decisions from EUCO against
#Belarus
dictatorship.
#Ryanair
#RomanProtasevich
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Putin's dilemma: mobilize too many soldiers from ethnic minority republics and the Federation is at risk; mobilize in Russian oblasts and the elite rebels.
By the way, those hijabi ladies are chanting "no to war". Dagestan is the place to watch right now, if the empire will start crumbling, it will be one of the first regions to rock the boat.
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@NormativeOrders
@NDeitelhoff
Kein Wasser, Elektrizität usw. für 2 Millionen Menschen. Seit Wochen. Dazu fällt Euch gar nichts spezifisches ein?
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(1) German coalition treaty "We call on the European Commission to use and enforce the existing rule of law instruments more consistently and promptly, including the rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), via Articles 260 and 279 of the TFEU". (Is Germany now going on
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@IAPonomarenko
@mtracey
Michael may also want to study the UK´s 1940 prolongation act and tell us about the Churchill dictatorship.
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@Mij_Europe
@vonderleyen
Anybody thinking of coming back to pending art.7 procedure? (which could result in suspending voting rights?)
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🧵1 What is this pacifism of old Germans 🇩🇪? I will try to explain from personal observations. In recent days these mostly elderly people have published a stream of open letters, articles, interviews that imply that at the end it´s better
#Ukraine
loses the war or more territory
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Germany will have the first female foreign minister in its history (and yes, you can start counting from 1871 and include the GDR if you want). About time.
#Baerbock
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Ceasefire is a problem as it can easily mean that 🇷🇺 freezes frontlines into new de facto borders. In the West many would welcome this "peace" & hope to get back to business with Russia - big mistake, rewarding aggression, inviting the next one. Instead, withdrawal of 🇷🇺 army
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Far too few people understand that the absolute number of cases reflect how many people you test. Germany has tested 35K last week alone, the UK has tested only 40K people since this started. Nobody knows who has the most cases.
#COVID
ー19
@nicktolhurst
There are currently at least 3 articles on the Telegraph website - not readers’ comments but article actual articles - revelling in Schadenfreude that “Europe” is supposedly doing less well than Britain over Coronavirus.
This newspaper simply does not deserve to survive.
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@JohannesVarwick
Ihre Meinung ist im Kern, dass ein Gewaltherrscher mit Atomwaffen alles machen darf. Zum Glück ist das nicht unsere Politik. Ich finde sie auch nicht nüchtern, sondern gefährlich.
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@gaborhalasz1
Die DDR in der man sich an die Gerichte wenden konnte und oft Recht gegen staatliche Entscheidungen bekam?
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@dszeligowski
Well, Ukrainian gov says the same thing. But of course weapon delivery must go on - even if there is some deal. Russia will break any deal if it feels its position has improved.
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@artursorin
Ja, merkwürdig. Ebenso merkwürdig, wie die Medaille für die "Krim-Rückholung", die vermerkt, dass es am 20.2.2014 losging, als Janukowitsch noch im Amt war.
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Understand the Hungary deal.
#Orban
blackmail still works but not fully anymore. Still hurts that we all pay for this in tax money and politics against European interests.👇
What should we make of deal today in
@EUCouncil
on 🇪🇺 funding for Orbán autocracy? In short, while the €6.3bn suspended (only around 18% of what Hungary gets from EU budget) is far less than what was legally justified, the fact anything was suspended is a victory. Quick🧵👇
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@edwardlucas
Kissinger thought it was inevitable that Portugal would become a communist state after the revolution and should be isolated & kept impoverished as a bad example. US ambassador's view was that it would become a left-leaning democracy - fortunately he prevailed.
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Hungary´s "democratic" elections are like Putin and Ukraine. Everybody knows for a long time it´s wrong but keeps pretending it´s ok. What should the EU do after Sunday? My piece in
@euronews
& my thanks to colleagues for support
@albertguaschr
@JilPrillwitz
@J_Jaraczewski
🇭🇺🇪🇺Hungary’s Sunday election may spark a new crisis for the EU.
It's a crisis we could see coming - Orbán has been dismantling democracy for years.
How can the EU react should the vote end in acrimony? Our
@meyer_resende
writes for
@euronews
👇
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Address options when subscribing to a German newspaper. Now you know why politicans' plagiarism in academic publications is such a scandal over here.
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@MattheusWehowsk
Und man könnte noch hinzufügen, dass Russland, Belarus und Ukraine die Auflösung der Sowjetunion entschieden (USA war nicht dafür).
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@jana_puglierin
Very leading questions I would say. Who is against besonnen & co-ordination with the US?
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At dusk we left
#Ukraine
& back in EU/NATO ground. Many intensive talks in Kyiv. Everybody is in a psychological state of emergency. Hard to imagine from the outside. Even more we
#StandWithUkraine
🇺🇦❤
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Russland verliert, wenn es nicht gewinnt. Ukraine gewinnt, wenn sie nicht verliert. Und sie wird nicht verlieren. Solange sie Hilfe hat.
Stegner bei
#Lanz
UNERTRÄGLICH. Die Ukrainer könnten den Krieg nicht ohne Nato-Beteiligung gewinnen. Er führt die Leiden der Zivilbevölkerung gegen Waffenlieferungen ins Feld, die den Krieg verlängerten. Bevormundung ist das, weil die Ukrainer nun mal nicht kapitulieren wollen.
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@fuecks
Die
@LiberaleModerne
steht für Werte, zu denen sich russische Regierungen (auch rechtlich) verpflichtet haben. Volle Solidarität von
@DemocracyR
Wir werden das Spiel gute NGO/schlechte NGO nicht mitspielen.
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Happy to be in Warsaw, where I had my first job (
@osce_odihr
) to follow rule of law across Central-Asia, Caucasus, Balkans. And where I met
@ResendeMeyer
!
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@BDStanley
Exactly. The reasoning should be reverse: "The Polish government should stop dividing its own people, stop spending its political energy on prosecuting judges and subjugating the judicial system. Nobody needs that now. " wrote that here 👇
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Absurd decision, if confirmed. A dictatorship attacks Ukraine and
@EU_Commission
conclusion is: Democracy and rule of law in the EU are not important anymore?
‼️This is absolutely scandalous. EU-Commission putting rule of law mechanism on ice.
Attacks on democracy and the rule of law by Orban and PiS governments DID NOT STOP the day Russia invaded Ukraine. They are going on EVERY DAY. /1
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Life experience tells me that this is part of the explanation. Much analysis over-emphasizes the structural & underrates the psychological.
#Putin
Не couldn't stand the disrespect, the constant slights, a weaker neighbor laughing at him over the flimsy fence. His gangster self, his gambler self got the better of him. He acted in pale-faced, tight-mouthed rage.
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At
@MunSecConf
we held a dinner debate on 🇩🇪business model & (geo-)political risks. No thread here on outcomes - the week was too long. But you'll hear from us! Thanks to
@szmicha
BBUG for great co-operation.
@fromTGA
@Ricarda_Lang
(photo by MSC)
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If you don't believe me that
#Poland
state media are totally biased, maybe you believe
@osce_odihr
"ability to make an informed choice was undermined by a lack of impartiality in the media, especially the public broadcaster" Public broadcasters should be least biased not most.
#Poland
's parliamentary
#elections
were prepared well, but marred by intolerant rhetoric and bias in public media, international observers say
#wybory
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Klar, wir immer:
@JHillje
zu Selenskyj. Warnt vor Kitsch-Berichterstattung in Kriegssituation: "Das ist nicht "der Auftritt seines Lebens", wie am Wochenende eine deutsche Tageszeitung titelte. Selenskyj hat sich diese "Bühne" nicht ausgesucht."
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Wenn jedes
#Putin
statement zu Öl & Gas als breaking news gepusht wir, obwohl Implikationen (bewusst) unklar sind, spielen wir sein Kommunikationspiel. Das ist Trump2.0 aber existentieller.
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Nothing new from chancellor
#Scholz
. The most tangible "we are reviewing a list of military items that Ukraine needs, for which we can pay. Some of them need to be produced, takes time." No new sanctions. This is not good enough.
#Ukraine
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All the companies that keep investing in
#Hungary
, yes looking at you
@MercedesBenz_DE
, haven't learned the Russia lesson. Direct access to an autocrat is not a good basis for investments. The rule of law is.
A further reminder for those who believe 🇭🇺 PM
#Orb
án is still a rational player & not a loose canon losing touch with reality.
THREAD 1/4
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@jana_puglierin
@SiemtjeMdB
Es klingt jetzt aber auch nicht wie: "BRegierung würde der ukrainischen Bitte nach Mardern gerne nachkommen. Wir haben alles versucht, aber NATO-Partner stellen sich quer."
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My thoughts on the political track of the
#Russia
war against
#Ukraine
. With a nod to
@PhillipsPOBrien
and
@ThreshedThought
. And: thank you
@andreasroberto
for support.
[Column] It is important to prepare for the scenario of a Russian offer of negotiations — not least to inoculate public discussion against the propaganda value Moscow would try to gain. By
@meyer_resende
of
@DemocracyR
#Ukraine
#negotiations
#Putin
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@HasnainKazim
@DB_Bahn
Ungefähr so (am Donnerstag). ICE Hamlet von Leipzig nach/nicht nach Berlin Hbf.
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@HHampikyan
@ulrichspeck
We have received notice of increased prices from the gas providers by now.
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Polish government rep says: We prefer enforcement instruments that we can ignore.
PL agent:
“We support values enforcement, just not through EU budget. COM has other enforcement opportunities, e.g. infringements under Art 258”.
Quote of the day nominee.
(COM, dear reader, HAS used Art. 258. Slight problem: PL DOES NOT IMPLEMENT RESULTING ECJ RULINGS).
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My column on why the
@Europarl_EN
needs to stand firm: Authoritarian rule should not be funded by the EU. (And thanks to
@DanielHegedus82
for some fact-checking here)
[Opinion] The EU will keep sending European funds to a member state even if it completely dismantled independent courts – as long as it avoided that a direct link could be drawn to mismanagement in spending EU funds. By
@meyer_resende
of
@DemocracyR
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First time somebody got paid EUR 10 billion to go to the bathroom.
Historic moment as European leaders agree to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.
Orbán had left the room.
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The story of the Turkish elections is that they are undemocratic. The unfair conditions of the race should be our focus, not the race.
#Turke
Elections in competitive authoriatian regimes such as Turkey/Türkiye often look like a horse race. Exciting! The opposition could win!
This way, the regime can have the democratic cake and eat it.
Don't fall for that narrative, warns
@meyer_resende
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A highlight of my job: 6 months ago we talked about visualizing social media discourse in partnership with a newspaper. Today
@Tagesspiegel
unveils our dashboard. Thanks to
@JHillje
for connecting us to
@plateauton
.
#Bundestagswahl2021
Offene Debatte oder Schlammschlacht? Wie läuft der Wahlkampf zur
#Bundestagswahl2021
auf Social Media? Unser interaktive Analyse zeigt live, wer viel postet, welche Emojis benutzt werden und wer viel Resonanz bekommt. Teil 1: Die Spitzenkandierenden.
#ddj
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First time since 2011 I am a bit more optimistic about defending independent judges in EU member states. Why? My article in
@guardianopinion
#RuleOfLaw
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Have I mentioned that this is the way to start a weekend?
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Natonalists across Europe accuse EU of being a hegemonic actor that undermines nation states. How do they explain 27 member states sitting around a table & need unanimity? The government of Malta (500,000 inhabitants) can block decisions for 460 million EU citizens.
#EUCO
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Only Northeners know the true luxury of the South: Working the whole day inside on a beautiful day - without ever feeling you are missing something extraordinary.
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(2)..acelerator, after years on the brake?) "We in the Council will more consistently enforce/develop application of ROL instruments". "We will agree to the COM's proposals on the reconstruction fund if conditions like independent judiciary are met."
@J_Jaraczewski
#RuleOfLaw
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Life is calming down. Empty Cafés, calm airports, calendars full of future events become lighter. I sense some relief among the always-busy. Maybe we learn something here. We can do less, move less, consume less. Hope
#coronavirus
goes away soon, but leaves an experience that..
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I am deeply shocked about the explosions in
#Beirut
but glad that
@DemocracyR
colleagues in our
@DRILebanon
office are not seriously injured.
#Lebanon
is in the middle of the pandemic and deep financial crisis. I hope the world is helping now, instead of fighting proxy wars.
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@J_Jaraczewski
You are absolutely right about this (not to mention Polish history between the two Empires in the 19th century). All the Ukrainians cities destroyed and emptied by III Reich have no real place in the collective consciousness (or if they do, as "Soviet-Russia"). It´s one reason.
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@ichbinilya
@SimonOstrovsky
@MattWelch
Perhaps it's an old song, but Europe rightly expects some songs to be dropped. Germany stopped singing the beginning of our national anthem ("Germany above all") that mentions borders in today's France, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Belarus, Lithuania and Italy.
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@CarloMasala1
@NDeitelhoff
Sie wurden nicht ausgesetzt. Sie reden. Aber Russland hat nie zu ukr Vorschlägen Stellung bezogen. Soweit ich weiß, gibt es für diese Johnson-Geschichte null Evidenz (klingt halt auch nach rus Propaganda: Ukrainer entscheiden nichts selbst. Böse Angelsachsen ziehen die Strippen).
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Ongoing campaign in Morocco against leading German
@swp
Maghreb researcher
@iswerenfelsi
. Seems strangely disproportionate to the issues she raised.
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to situation of 23 Feb must be core demand. Ceasefire ok if 🇺🇦 agrees, but sanctions should be increased if 🇷🇺 troops don´t leave. So: Attention when
#Macron
and others go on about ceasefire.
@fuecks
@ConStelz
@nnougayrede
@AnaMartinsGomes
@PhillipsPOBrien
@jana_puglierin
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(12) War is evil. There have been ever less wars, we have made progress. But for many reasons the progress is in risk. Letting
#Russia
succeed will neither end this war for long and make more wars likely, because you get away with it.
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#Russia
uses its most sophisticated weapons to attack well-known Ukrainian landmarks with no military value and to terrorize civilians. Time to speed up delivery of more air defences & anything else so that Ukraine can end this terrible and senseless war.
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"This is an “all-hands-on-deck” moment for democracies. It’s about the world our children will inherit." Spot on
@andrewmichta
China is helping Putin escape the sanctions regime. This is what Xi calls the “new era,” targeting the current currency regime, the normative institutions-based framework, etc. This is an “all-hands-on-deck” moment for democracies. It’s about the world our children will inherit.
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Hamas nimmt menschliche Schutzschilder, die Opferzahlen sind unzuverlässig, die UN nicht neutral, man kann da nichts genaues wissen, die extremistischen israelischen Minister sind unwichtig, usw. Wie man sich in Deutschland den ganzen Tag psychisch & moralisch entlastet.
#Gaza
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#StracheVideo
is a test case of Austrian democracy. Will a senior gov representative resign because he suggested illegal benefits to a foreign actor in exchange for political support (incl. undermining media)?
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Es heisst immer "die EU entscheidet" aber selten hört man "die EU hat auf deutsche Initiative/mit deutscher Zustimmung entschieden." Wir sind die EU, nicht irgendwelche Leute in Brüssel. Zu diesem Thema ein sehr guter Text von
@JHillje
#Europawahl2019
Europawahl: Europa wird sprachlich den Populisten geopfert.
@JHillje
erklärt, warum unsere Art, über "die EU" zu reden, sie zu einem leichten Ziel macht.
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Lisbon is coming too. The Portuguese are here, not only the Ukrainians. In the background: Russia embassy.
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An uplifting end to a grim visit jn
#Bucha
. Café Jul, by Julia, who has stories to tell of being shot at, a home raided by Ru soldiers and fleeing with 5 children.
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Real blow to anybody who takes democratic elections seriously.
Both, Ursula von der Leyen AND Charles Michel sent their congratulations to Viktor Orban today.
HUGE gift for the Orban propaganda. Now he's gonna run around at home, saying: 'See, even our enemies accept the outcome of the elections.'
Elections were manipulated AND unfair!
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Cover zu
#Greta
kann man machen
@derspiegel
aber da stimmen Euch die meisten eh zu. Moralisch-politisch dringlicher truth-to-power Journalismus würde fragen: Israel schneidet 2Mill Leuten in
#Gaza
seit 5 Wochen weitgehend Wasser, Strom, Essen ab - Steht 🇩🇪 weiter dahinter?
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💐to
@verfassungsblog
from
@EU_Commission
"A widely-read platform for discussions on rule of law related topics has gained in importance and has become a forum for both domestic as well as European discussions on the rule of law."
#RuleofLaw
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Surprise in
#Slovenia
. PM Janša, an Orban ally, has lost the elections. Opposition wins. Elections were not about Russia´s war but about
#democracy
and
#ruleoflaw
in Slovenia. This will strenghten the central Europan voices for democracy.
🇸🇮 *double checks the flag* a surprise outcome of Slovenian elections appears imminent, with the new green-centrist party GS upsetting the ruling SDS.
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too much celebration on EU resolve, when attack on
#Ukraine
is intensifying. Nothing is won yet.
Thread. Info comes from a very senior former ministry of defense official.
Belarus will commit air and ground forces to Russia’s war on Ukraine, in the next 24 hours.
The most pressing threat is a large military column headed toward Kyiv from the Northwest.
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Polish (illegitimate) Constitutional Tribunal is playing netflix. Cliffhanging us on its "we may blow up EU law in Poland, or maybe not, or not yet"case until 30 September. Stay tuned with
@DemocracyR
court reporter Pan
@J_Jaraczewski
Case postponed until 30 September! No ruling today, thank you for your attention and we're seeing each other next week. (38/n)
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@BarnettforAZ
Incredibly tough intellectual challenge: Votes are counted and the other side wins. Basically impossible to comprehend.
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@chkucklick
@Avaaz
Eine Diskussion (mit Schlußfolgerungen) über social media analysis - Transparenz, Methodik -ist überfällig. Oft hat man den Eindruck: Was ins Erwartungsraster passt, wird berichtet.
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(2) ...than continuing the war. I disagree and they make me angry. It´s so obviously wrong. Have they not learned the lessons of Munich in 1938? But thinking about my family and many others, the answer is: No. They learned the lesson of their life in 1945. They were kids...
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@fuecks
Beide Seiten versuchen, den Kontext auszublenden. Das ist falsch. Trotzdem gibt es Aspekte der israelischen Kriegsführung die nicht "wie jeder Krieg" sind. Blockade von Wasser, Essen, Energieversorgung für 2 Mill. Leute; gezielte Zerstörung leerer Zivileinrichtungen.
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Awaiting results but most likely
@DemocracyR
won the
#Berlin
#berlinerfirmenlauf
thanks in large part to a dedicated support team.
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