Maj Soueidan
@majgeoinvesting
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Full-Time Microcap Investor, 30+ yrs | Tennis, Blues Guitar, Football | Founder @GeoInvesting & @MSmicrocaps | 200+ Multibaggers | Quality Matters
PR/Fort Lauderdale/Philly
Joined July 2015
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After 11 yrs., the ~45% average return across 49 stocks in
@GeoInvesting
Run to $1 Model Portfolio flies in the face of microcap haters. It beats Peter Lynch’s 29% per year return during his 13 year tenure managing the Magellan fund. I love this portfolio.$CANOF $TSSI $KRMD $XPEL
Our Run to $1.00 Model Portfolio holds sub-$1 stocks we flag for potential multi-baggers. We’re on the lookout for real Cos. being mislabeled by the crowd. Cos. with real revenues, profits & solid Mgmt. vs pump & dumps. Learn more:
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Druckenmiller on $DOGE, love it:
"Manifestation of the craziest monetary policy in history. It’s just this wave of money in the Greater Fool Theory. Having said that, I wouldn’t short it because I don’t like putting campfires out with my face. So I pretend DOGE doesn’t exist."
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1/25
#TheGreatHeadFake
: Why we’ll look back at this market correction & conclude that it was a huge head fake. Mark my words, we’re entering a multiyear bull market for forgotten growth+value stocks. Fundamentals to take centerstage.
#Thread
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As a full-time investor for ~30 yrs, I composed a top 10 "things to do list" for those considering a similar path.
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When you stumble upon a misunderstood recurring revenue business growing at 20%+ with a clean capital structure that's just about to become profitable, selling at well under 1x sales👇
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#Goosebumps
when you find a stock like $KTEL:
*No Wall Street Coverage
*Rev to at least 3x
*Our forward 2023 P/S & P/E est = 2 & 6.8
*Guaranteed rev stream
*~100% recurring rev
*Can grow w/o raising equity
*A+ mgmt
*CEO had 2 successful exits
*We predict this will be his 3rd
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Curious what blue print
#PeterLynch
used to pick
#stocks
?
-Trailing P/E<25
-Forward P/E<15
-Debt to Equity Ratio <35%
-EPS Growth >15% to <30%
-PEG Ratio (PE/EPS Growth Rate) <1.2
-Market Cap < $5 Billion
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To make room for a more timely stock, I just finished dumping one of my bigger portfolio holdings that underperformed for 3 yrs. Regardless of the outcome of selling this dog, it's liberating to move on. This is one of the toughest decisions you'll be faced with when investing.
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The best way to start getting into investing is to just start investing. At some point you need to kick off your training wheels and gain experience through success and failure. Don't just be a paper champion. 😬
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A friendly message to
#microcap
CEOs. Don't obsess over convincing stubborn institutional investors to buy your stock. Focus on your base, loyal retail investors, who understand the microcap advantage. Make them money and they may be your next institutional investor.
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Crazy amount of insider buying, especially in the smaller cap arena, is being totally dismissed by investors. Been years since I’ve observed this type of disconnect. Time to start making that wish list.
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Want to become a better investor?
Stop living in theory and start living in reality. Read less investing books & investing quotes and read more 10Ks.
The wealth of industry and business model information in 10Ks is more amazing than you might think. It’s not all boiler plate.
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Started working out at 15. I'm never going to be Arnold Schwarzenegger, but at 51 I'm still at it because there are new techniques I can explore to address weak spots. Same thing with investing. We might not become Buffett or Lynch, but we can continue to become better investors.
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The microcap investing edge:
*Little analyst coverage
*Institutions can’t / won’t invest
*Rarely see CEOs as guests on CNBC
*Get access to management
*It’s more fun
*Information Arbitrage
*Data supported alpha over larger-caps
*Great networking
*It’s where multi-baggers are born
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18/25 Peter Lynch’s formula will work like a charm:
Trailing P/E<25
Forward P/E<15
Debt to Equity Ratio <35%
EPS Growth >15% to <30%
PEG Ratio (PE/EPS Growth Rate) <1.2
Market Cap < $5 Billion
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There is no "one" right way to invest in the stock market. However, investors who have stood the test of time seem to have one thing in common. They win the battle against emotions that tempt us into making suboptimal investment decisions based on greed and fear.
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Was recently asked how I size my bets when initiating a new portfolio position. For what it's worth, if it's a high conviction idea, I'm not a fan of "scaling" in. I like to bet big fast & add to the position as the story unfolds. Also have no regrets paying up for a stock.
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1/42 Interviewing company mgmt. can be a daunting task. You may feel overwhelmed or intimidated jumping on a call with executive leaders. But at the end of the day, going the extra mile gives you a huge investing edge. This
#Thread
discusses this topic & 8 interview process tips.
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Very frustrating talking with microcap CEOs who still talk about valuing their businesses on rev growth & price to sales multiples, at the expense of being profitable. In every one of those convos, they think they are the exception. Good luck raising money to fund your cash burn.
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One thing we like to do at
@GeoInvesting
is to “trick” the market & stock screeners. Here is one very powerful strategy in the microcap space, where there is less competition and interest from investors. 6 steps:
1. Create a list of interesting companies that are reporting GAAP
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Think short sellers are evil? Well👉 "There's nothing evil, in my view, about selling things short. Situations in which there have been huge short interests, very often have been later revealed to be frauds or semi-frauds." - Warren Buffett - But it's not easy
@GeoInvesting
👇
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Lots of microcap junk that indiscriminately rose over last 12 months is finally getting pummeled. Will be interesting to see if this money finds its way into the more quality microcap names. 🤞
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Now is a great time to capitalize on investor fatigue & people giving up on investing by reading conference call transcripts and SEC/SEDAR filings for bullish info that is being ignored. We only get these chances a few times in our investing journey. Take advantage of it.💰
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Looking back at microcaps I've bought over the last 30 yrs & even at my current portfolio, there's no doubt that microcap OTC is where you get the best returns that shatter the indexes. But this is no secret.
@jposhaughnessy
wrote about it & still holds true today, maybe more so.
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Investors who claim they can’t find undervalued stocks in the midst of lengthy bull markets simply aren’t looking hard enough. In my opinion, significant opportunities always exist in the inefficient, and often ignored, microcap universe. 👀🤑
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It's a special feeling when only two people are buying a left for dead OTC
stock you love that has multi-bagger written all over it:
yourself and the CEO.
It's even more special when the CEO offers to buy your shares.😂😂😂
I can't wait to see how this plays out.🤞
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The 2nd you stop basing investing decisions primarily on a quarterly earnings report (good or bad) of a company & start really understanding its biz model as it relates to long term vision, is the moment you've multibagged your chances of achieving excellence as an investor.
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Outside of trading, stop losses are just a way to appease your emotions & make you feel "comfortable." When building fundamental based portfolios, they are absolutely useless. In fact, the only thing stop losses do in this case is that they stop you out of riding multi-baggers.
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Whether a bull or a bear, fundamentals ultimately determine investment outcomes. We can get lazy & cocky when things are going well, or emotional when things are going bad, rendering us unable to admit defeat. Focus on the fundamentals. It's what the best investors do.
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Multibagger traits:
*More sales from current customers
*Operating leverage
*Regulatory changes
*Acquisition mode
*De-risking balance sheet/Biz
*Settling distracting lawsuits
*Selling nonperforming/noncore assets
*Fixing capital structure
*Early innings of margin expansion cycle
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Proof that not all microcaps are microCraps 👉 $PXHI:
*$100M in rev
*Profitable
*Cash flow positive
*Rapid growth
*No Debt
*Innovator
*Industry leading SaaS platform
*Survived severe operating challenges
*Bought back 14% of stock
Yet valuation is laughable:
P/E 6.2
EV/S 0.27
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Multi-baggers don't have to start out as high revenue growth scenarios. Don't underestimate the power of investing in the very early stages of improving multi-year gross and operating margin cycles. And then when higher revenue growth arrives, it just gets better.
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4 traits that are absolutely necessary to become a great investor:
Develop high conviction -
@AltaFoxCapital
@Romanyuk_E
Control emotions -
@jposhaughnessy
@LCTempleton
@AndrewWLo
Tune out the noise -
@morganhousel
Sit & wait -
@marketplunger1
@stockspinoffss
@PaulAndreola
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If you're a day/swing trader, there's nothing wrong with sprinkling long-term bets around a short-term core.
Same is true if you're a longer-term investor. Take some short-term at bats if the right opportunity arises.
There's no 1 way to make money in the stock market.
#balance
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Once in a while, when using automated screeners to look for stock ideas, take the less obvious path & screen for companies that look bad on paper. Then, identify candidates that are on the brink of a turnaround. Also use this approach when scanning press releases.
#AvoidTheCrowd
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It's painful as hell watching your portfolio get decimated by 20%, 30% or more when the stock market is crashing, but the following $BAC study has never rung more true than in today's fast paced markets:
“Looking at data going back to 1930, Bank of America found that if 👇
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Some of the most beautiful multi-baggers will start out as very boring set-ups with crazy cheap valuations. The re-rate to more exciting valuations can be nothing short of amazing!
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Looking for multibaggers? Concise look at 9 moats that help companies gain competitive advantages.
@GTraganidas
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3 books to consider if you're aspiring to become a full-time or serious part-time investor:
-One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lynch
-Good To Great, Jim Collins
-Zero To One, Peter Thiel
You will build a strong foundation to simplify the research process to identify great mgmt & cos.
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The half glass full Coronavirus viewpoint:
-Countries will improve one by one
-Fed & govt stim
-We realize that life goes on
-Vaccine research progresses
-Access to test kits
-High profile people recover
-Understanding the stats
-Michael Burry is long small-caps & stock picking
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My strategy isn't very complex. Buy shares of unpopular cos when they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up a bit. Mgmt of my portfolio is as important to me as stock picking. If I can do both well, I know I'll be successful. Michael Burry (Big Short).
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Investing for the long term doesn't mean you have to abandon short term desire to make money in the stock market. It just forces you to look at businesses in a way that only long term perspectives can provide. Ironically, this approach can identify many short term opportunities.
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If you're interested, here's a link to a video compilation highlighting speeches interviews and conversions with some of the greatest investing minds. First up, Peter Lynch and Joel Greenblatt. Enjoy your weekend!
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It's amazing how my heart flutters when I see a form 4 filing in a stock I own showing that management and/or directors are buying shares in the open market. Helps explain why I'm 50 and still single. I have a serious problem. Have a great holiday weekend!
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It's a shame that microcap investors are often labeled as 2nd class, with subpar skills, who primarily invest in low-quality stocks. There are plenty with superior research processes that are 1st class. Here's 4 of them:
@LoneStockTrader
@SGEggert
@AltaFoxCapital
@iancassel
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Very funny that the legit companies exploring the
#cryptocurrency
space attract the least investor interest. $XIN $GSUM.
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Just because I don't know what's under the hood of a 1965 Mustang doesn't mean I can't drive one. Of course I can. Same goes with investing. You might not become an "expert" investor, but you're free to invest & to strive to be better at it than you are today. F*** the experts.
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The Peter Thiel way:
"Dominate a small niche and scale up from there"
A big misperception is to achieve a multi-bagger you need to invest in a microcap that is addressing a big market. In reality, you just need to find one that over several years can consistently grow revenues and earnings while not diluting you.
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4/25 Even if off on timing, a bet is reasonable. Valuations of many stocks are on par or below levels vs. the 2000 Bubble & 2008 Apocalypse. The world isn't ending. Wages are up & Cos are adjusting to the new normal. Markets evolve.The strong will survive & the weak will perish.
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Anyone who tells you that you can’t make money in stocks in the short run is clueless. You’re telling me that with 20K stocks trading in North America there are no points of inflection that lead to near-term outsized returns? Plenty of room for short & long-term strategies.
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If you can't handle up to 50% pullbacks in your stocks, then look somewhere other than
#microcaps
. There's a price to pay for the potential out-sized returns. Actually, you should ask yourself this question when investing at ANY marketcap - what's YOUR risk tolerance?
#TruthHurts
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2/25 Takes me back to Peter Lynch opining on sticking to fundamentals as he resisted the temptation of investing in internet stocks during his retirement."In spite of the instant gratification that surrounds me,I’ve continued to invest the old-fashioned way. I own stocks where👇
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110% agree. The liquid cooling theme in data centers is a huge one. In fact, during my site visit to $TSSI in Round Rock Texas 2 weeks ago, the CEO confirmed this and stated that power & data storage solutions are the next big themes in data centers.
Liquid Cooling is the biggest ‘Pick and Shovel’ theme of AI and Data Center boom.
Find it difficult to understand why?
The heart of a data center's efficiency is its ability to manage heat.
Excessive heat—can lead to hardware failure, reduced performance, and increased energy
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Had a chat with a smart investor who scoffed at my heavy use of
#InfoArb
, saying it was beneath him because it's too juvenile. Okay🤷♂️
$IAIC +548%
$RVP +784%
$SMLR +876%
$PCHM +1,188%
No need for an abacus to make money in the stock market. Just need to leave your ego at home.
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Classic conversation that took place at a coffee shop I'm camping out at today:
Guy 1: Did you buy that stock I told you about?
Guy 2: Which one?
Guy 1: $GNUS, $NFLX for kids. Up over 100% & I'll keep buying.
Guy 2: What's the Valcuation (not a typo)
Guy 1: Not sure. Who cares?
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Be careful not to instantly dismiss
#stocks
that are losing money if Co is shifting to or operates a recurring rev model. You can often buy them at very low price or EV to sales multiples.The P/E crowd will eventually join you once the biz scales to reach profit inflection points
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Peter Lynch on Why Microcaps:
"Another way that a lot of fund managers hemmed themselves in was worrying about liquidity. They avoided all the wonderful small companies– a good collection of these could do wonders even for a big portfolio– because the stocks were thinly traded"
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One of the worst things you can do as an investor is to get cocky when you’re having lots of success or on a “winning streak.” - This can cause you to abandon self discipline when you need it most, often at market tops, or to buy stocks you normally wouldn’t.
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Avoid the I'm a long term investor excuse to hold stocks past expiration dates. Invest smartly, not blindly. "If story A is better than story B, sell B & buy more A. If you own 8 cos, you're playing 8 games of poker. Stay in the games with the best chance of success"
#PeterLynch
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Sincere message to management teams of pre-revenue companies. Before you mention that all you need to do to succeed is to get 1% of a billion dollar market, show us you can get your first customer.
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It's ridiculous that Merrill Lynch is prohibiting transactions in stocks under $5. Price is irrelevant & this rule will do nothing to stop frauds who keep the reverse split carousel moving. Meanwhile, quality microcaps under $5 will just keep getting cheaper. Thanks, Wall Street!
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Why it's great to be a stock picker 👉
* 52% of American families get exposure to the stock market through mutual funds and ETFs vs.14% that gain exposure by directly investing in individual stocks *
Gain an edge by hunting where nobody else is hunting!🤑
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Why
@jposhaughnessy
likes
#microcap
stocks, speaking at the
@MicroCapClub
Leadership Summit this morning.
"Other investors don't have opinions on them."
"Half of my microcap portfolio has no analyst coverage"
"No competition"
"Scarcity is a wonderful thing"
#opportunity
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Hate to do this. Can you recall up to 3 stocks you sold to lock in gains that went on to become insane multi-baggers, & still are. Unfortunately, I have more than 3. Here are 3+1 bonus: $MNST & $SLP in early 2000’s. $CHTR in 2012, ( $XPEL in 2015-probably sold to
@EightTrack180
).
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It’s amazing how many management teams don’t understand the value in preserving the capital structure of their company. There’s an arrogance and ignorance on how some managers approach this subject. That’s why insider ownership should be on our investment process check list.
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The discipline I’ve had to apply through the years to become a more concentrated investor has been a real struggle. I just love investing and there are so many great companies that I could develop a high conviction in. Any of you feel the same?
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Congrats to those microcap investors hanging on to illiquid tier one companies that have been getting no love since 2008. Mr. market can't chase pump & dumps and bloated big caps forever. Has been an Incredible 2 week run. Let's cross our fingers. Have a great weekend! 🤞
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It took me a while to build the emotional maturity to "let my winners ride." However, time, experience & mistakes taught me that this simple truth is possibly the most impt. golden rule of investing.
"The 1st rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily."Charlie Munger
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Sure, if you aspire to be a full-time, or even part time investor, reading the right books is important. But, at some point, you need to stop collecting books and start collecting experience.
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7/25 Don’t end up being part of the statistic that shows how badly individual investors underperform the market as highlighted in this video clip referencing Peter Lynch from a March 2017 presentation by
@LCTempleton
. Transcript w/ slides available here:
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6/25 Knowing that stocks go up over time, you will make more money by taking a half glass full approach to investing in bear markets vs. fixating on pessimism.
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Want to beat the market? With some research you can build a high conviction small/microcap portfolio. Stop giving all your money to bloated funds that refuse to invest in smaller stocks because it gets in the way of growing assets & collecting fees by being average, at best.🤮
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As much as I love interviewing Mgmt., it’s not required to have investing success. But, you’ll have to be obsessed with:
•Reading press releases/filings/presentations/earnings calls
•Understanding biz. plans
•Learning to read between the lines to dissect reality vs. bullshit
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Nice to see a value investor like
#JoelTillinghast
give props (in his book, Big Money Thinks Small) to a short seller like
@muddywatersre
.
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Reaction from an 11 pm convo I had with a CEO of a stock I own that's powering to all time highs.
"Wow, had no idea the stock was moving or what the price was. I can't control the price, so I'll keep focusing on running the business. I'm here for the long haul. Happy for you."
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11/25 Based on a Screener I’m building with
@JanSvenda
to identify Tier 1 Quality stocks, 232 U.S. OTC microcaps meet 7 out of 7 quantitative criteria & 1K meet 6. To learn more about
#InfoArb
screens I’m building please go here:
@MicroCapHound
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Find multibaggers before others by finding companies that have experienced long periods of weak sales growth with:
*Gross margins >70%
*Small uptick in sales growth
*Near breakeven
*Qualitative clues that growth is arriving
*EV/S <2x
This setup can lead to EV/S rising to 6x+.
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If you’re new to
#microcaps
, please understand that the sooner you decide to avoid stocks with high outstanding shares & mgmt. who give out shares like candy, your odds of success will materially improve. Shares outstanding are the window to the soul of a microcap mgmt. team.
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Was a real pleasure chatting with
@PaulAndreola
of Smallcap Discoveries,
@smallcapdisc
During our chat, Paul discussed how he put his construction career behind him to become a full time investor...
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If you're pulling your hair out while researching a stock. Move on. It's not defeat. There are plenty of simple stories to feed your returns
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The real question is why do regulators continue to allow investment banks to export this crap to our shores? At the very least, regulators should set a due diligence standard that banks, law firms, IR firms and auditors need to adhere to. But we know why they don't: $$$$$$
Why do people keep buying Chinese IPOs...??? It’s always the same outcome. Just a question of when...
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Been trying hard to find new stocks to potentially add to my portfolio as well as to pitch at this year's
@MicroCapClub
Leadership Summit. But I keep coming back to the stocks I own. 🤷♂️It's so ture that:
"Sometimes the best stocks to buy are the ones you already own" - Lynch
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Can't stress this enough: Read 10Ks & 10Qs to gather clues of a company's dilution risk when rosy pictures are being painted. Example👇
"Mgmt intends to finance operating costs over the next 12 months with existing cash, expected cash flow and additional CONVERTIBLE DEBT."
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It's easy to get distracted from your core investment strategies when you hear about overnight fortunes $GME has created for some investors. And a sincere hats off to them. But we rarely here about those who get sucked in at highs. Keep your risky bets manageable & stay focused.
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Today’s brunch after party with a fantastic mother. I had to hold the camera sideways because we couldn’t see her when I held the camera longways, or … I’m just really bad at taking selfies (very inefficient elbow height).🤣🤣🤣
Gentlemen… Respect and take care of your
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Board seats are now encouraged to satisfy diversity standards. Another requirement is needed: That Board members own a good chunk of their stock via open market purchases. Only then can they understand ownership through the lenses of shareholders & act in their best interests.
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Volatility and short-term underperformance of your smaller capitalized stocks during broader market rallies is the "tax" you pay for the mega-bagger opportunities they present to you in the long-term.
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Investors don’t realize it yet, but the place they’re going to want to be in a potentially new economic & market environment we may be entering is in smaller capitalized, profitable companies with clean balance sheets. Pendulum is turning. Stock picker‘s dream scenario set-up.
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We should spend less time trying to become banking experts and more time looking for oversold opportunities that have absolutely nothing to do with $SIVB. Good ol’ fashion “boring” investing will become the new sexy as speculative bubbles continue to pop.
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A stock you think has mulitbagger potential isn't going to make a 10X move in "one day." You can wait for confirmation that your thesis is playing out and load up later. Think of the early returns you miss as a tax you pay to gain more confidence & to avoid going big too early.
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5/25 Tobias (
@Greenbackd
), talks about the degree of undervaluation in certain areas of the current market, referencing the 2001 tech bubble, stating that patient investors will be rewarded.
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Full-time investor advantages:
-High gross margins.
-Crazy Operating leverage (unless you start buying Lambos).
-You get to own a piece of some of the greatest Cos. in the world without having to run them.
-Flexible working hours.
-You fire by selling, with no friction.
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The obstacle to being an average investor (at best) to being a great investor, really comes down to one thing:
-When to sell or hold onto a stock-
You can be the best stock picker in the world, but this decision will define your journey, like no other, especially in microcaps.
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Breaking up with a losing stock is like breaking up with someone you know you shouldn't be with, but you can't because you feel so committed to someone who has become part of you. Not easy, but once you do it you begin to feel immense relief.
@jposhaughnessy
#ConfirmationBias
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Want to find multi-baggers before the crowd? Follow this blueprint. Find a boring turnaround company everyone is ignoring:
*with minimal revenue growth
*in the 3rd inning of gross margin expansion
*and operating leverage
Then get ready for round 2 once revenue growth kicks in.
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