Joseph Mullins
@josephmullins
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econ prof on Dakȟóta land
Minneapolis, MN
Joined July 2009
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Today, nobody showed up to my 8.15am class.
0 students of about 40. Sitting in the empty room, I email them, trying to disguise my hurt feelings.
2 mins later, I get a reply: "Professor, we think you might be in the wrong room." So anyway off I go to live in a hole forever.
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My wife really wants me to mention that I was sleep deprived because I got up at 4am to play Dungeons and Dragons with my friends in Australia.
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And yes she is also absolutely roasting me in every group chat about my decidedly not chill reaction to this blowing up.
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@lalasoo
Something along the lines of: "I'm sitting here in an empty classroom. If no one shows up in the next 5 minutes I will leave, but I would like to start a conversation about how I can get more of you to come to class." 😆
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@ChrisPhelanEcon
I went to the room exactly beneath the correct one, which happens to look identical in every way.
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@sucamehere
@Astrid_NV
@lalasoo
I feared that it was worse than I remembered but this is not so bad 😂
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@Astrid_NV
@lalasoo
Lol. I'm waiting for one of my students to jump into this thread and share.
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Happy one year anniversary to this tweet going catastrophically viral and completely ruining my life for about 36 hours.
Today, nobody showed up to my 8.15am class.
0 students of about 40. Sitting in the empty room, I email them, trying to disguise my hurt feelings.
2 mins later, I get a reply: "Professor, we think you might be in the wrong room." So anyway off I go to live in a hole forever.
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One thing I was not prepared for before I moved to the Midwest is that it just goes so incredibly hard.
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Thrilled to finally realize the dream of my forefathers (be on a podcast). Thanks to Dave and
@IRP_UW
for this very cool opportunity to talk about my research. Have a listen maybe?
In our latest podcast episode
@josephmullins
talks about an economic model he developed that finds that accounting for children's skill development suggests a very different design for our cash transfer programs.
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Yes, hello. Let me stifle my impostor syndrome for a minute and tell you about this paper. It finds that accounting for children's skill development has big implications for the optimal size and shape of cash transfers. A thread on how I get there...
New from HCEO member
@josephmullins
: Accounting for children's human capital development when designing economic support programs suggests optimal policy is much different than in the US.
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Many are saying that I "slayed" on this podcast. I do not know what that means but I think it is good. You should listen and decide for yourself.
This week on the Office Hours Pod, hear
@josephmullins
discuss what drives differences in a firms' willingness to bargain and renegotiate employee wages.
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My finger is sore from tapping the "It takes a model to beat a model" sign so frequently the last few days. How do you get from "Macroeconomic forecasting is hard" to "We should seriously consider this theory with no formal empirical content."?
But also: those same people will eventually admit to you that most macroeconomic models are pretty bad.
If you can really figure out macroeconomic modeling, I want to invest in your hedge fund.
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Turn your throwback Thursday into a seen-it-now Saturday by coming to our
#ASSA2023
session on child development! Say something like "everyone's been talking about the podcast" and I will buy you a beer.
#TBThursday
Did you miss this great podcast featuring
@josephmullins
interviewed by
@IRP_UW
about his latest research? Listen to learn about some surprising findings on parenting, child development, and cash transfer programs.
#Tbt
#UMNProud
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Once you start thinking of the safety net as an investment in future generations, it's very hard to think of it in any other way. Really enjoyed chatting about my research on this topic with
@HellerHurwicz
.
This week on Office Hours, hear
@josephmullins
describe when parents shouldn’t work: cash assistance and work incentives
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Arriving back in Australia I am reminded that people here will put what is essentially a piece of cake in the toaster and spread butter on it just because it's called banana "bread". A whole nation of freaks, blissfully unaware.
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The worst part was thinking "Huh maybe I'm good at Twitter actually" and then posting+deleting 5 to 6 absolute stinkers.
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Reading through Amazon reviews of pencils and can't help but feel that I've found my people.
Yes, the Mitsubishi takes a sharp point and rarely fractures, but is the graphite as smooth as a Palamino or a Tombow? Will read 300 more reviews to find out.
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Some of our UMN students, in their own words. They are smart young adults who are motivated by empathy. Above all else, they are united by a desire to end an almost unconscionable suffering. As their teacher, I am grateful to be witness to that.
you can, and I have, griped a lot about the specifics of the college student protests, but broadly speaking it’s mostly a bunch of brave young folks trying anything they can to stop a brutal war that should’ve stopped a long time ago
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Had forgotten the pure bliss of being tipsy on the subway and just absolutely vibing to a lil playlist you made for yourself.
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@DinaPomeranz
Duflo, Hannah & Ryan (2012) is a great structural development paper. A replication project would teach anyone a lot about estimating dynamic models, which is really the bread and butter of structural work.
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I'm putting out a mutual aid opportunity for my friend Sharif, a Somali refugee (more on his story below). He is trying to start his life over in Worcester, MA. We are raising funds to help him.
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Hi everyone. I'm trying to help my friend Vali, a refugee from Iran, raise funds so he can survive for the next 6 months after foot surgery. Australians, this is an opportunity for justice after our country's terrible mistreatment of refugees.
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Last year many of you on here showed incredible support for my friend, Sharif. I am putting out another call to help a new friend of mine, Saif, and his family. Let me tell you their story...
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One embarrassing thing about me is that whenever I see something like this I think: "Yeh, I could probably do that."
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Dimwits: New York is over.
Me, an intellectual: please consider as counterpoint this giant coquettish gorilla.
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Me teaching p- values to my undergrads.
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Punchline: for the sample I use, it looks like single mothers are more "productive" for society when raising their children compared to working. Accordingly, it is not optimal to subsidize their employment. The optimal schedule is much more generous for those not earning:
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@HellerHurwicz
@M_De_Nardi
@JWaldfogel
@Mebdi8
@HannesMalmberg1
You're about to meet many increible people from around the world. Try to enjoy the great privilege of getting to do that, and learning something deeply and thoroughly along the way.
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@bencjenkins
All you need for this fresh summer salad is arugula, feta, and a flower that can only be picked from the highest peak in the Azores.
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Not anti-calibration by any means but more often than not you have to actually calculate the standard errors before you can decide that they are "second order". If x is your moment and f(x) is your calculation of interest, you at least want to figure out f'(x).
Calculating standard errors is often very computationally costly. This can seriously eat into a researcher‘s computational budget. Not doing it when it is of second order importance seems like a good choice to me. 4/10
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@DinaPomeranz
I also have my students replicate Rust (1988). Lots of materials on this out there. Then Arcidiacono and Miller (2011) as a more advanced challenge. If you can master these, you are in great shape.
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You can call the Wisconsin DOJ at (608) 266-1221 to demand arrests and charges.
This is 29-year-old Jacob Blake who was shot by Kenosha police. His fiancé shared this picture with us.
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You may be aware that richer households have fewer children. It turns out that this isn't really true for households with negative wealth. Yue's paper shows this and teaches us how credit constraints over the life-cycle can rationalize this fact.
Yue Hua studies "The Long-Run Effects of Federal Student Loans on Fertility and Social Mobility."
Her advisors are Loukas Karabarbounis, Anmol Bhandari, and
@josephmullins
.
#studentloans
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Regrettably, this is 90% of my personality.
white ppl love to see a line forming behind them and being like “wow we got here at the perfect time”
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It turns out that both parental time and income matter for shaping kids' skills. A parent's decision to work trades off one for the other, and any public finance accounting should really try to factor in the net present value of this decision for future economic resources.
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I hope you will consider this opportunity for refugee justice. This family is so deserving of a proper opportunity for a fresh start. Any small amount would be so so appreciated. Sending love out there <3
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If you have some $$ to spare, please consider this opportunity for refugee justice. My friend Mohamed, an Iraqi refugee recently resettled in Minneapolis, is hoping to get his training and license for commercial truck driving.
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The fundraising goal was met and then some. Saif is very happy. We are so humbled and grateful for all who amplified and donated. Thank you!
I hope you will consider this opportunity for refugee justice. This family is so deserving of a proper opportunity for a fresh start. Any small amount would be so so appreciated. Sending love out there <3
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@bencjenkins
Yes I also feel that scurvy is really only for those who are not built different.
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@pilossopher
Depends on your language but automatic differentiation has been an absolute game changer for me. ForwardDiff in Julia, for example.
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Vali has settled here in Minneapolis and is trying to start his life over again. This surgery, with adequate recovery time, is crucial for him to achieve sustainable and gainful employment.
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There is a strong evidence base for the long-term benefits of lifting children out of poverty. Signing this letter was an easy decision. Hoping the CTC expansion becomes permanent.
Over 400 Economists agree! Put simply, the Child Tax Credit expansion is good policy and we should make it permanent!
Thank you to everyone who signed.
You can find the final letter with list of signers here:
#EconTwitter
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*Important* caveat: as the 95% confidence intervals suggest, it's really hard to get precise numbers. And the "maternal employment effect" on child skills is not invariant to other policies like childcare. If it were zero, the optimal schedule would look like this:
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@pilossopher
These are great. I would add: always check for parameters you can estimate directly (any observable exogenous process, for example). And don't underestimate how useful it will be to have differentiability of your moments.
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Twice before I have been overwhelmed and deeply touched by this community's support for resettled refugees in Minneapolis. If we can replicate even a fraction of that success it will make such a difference to him. Sending love to all ❤️ and please share.
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@bencjenkins
Same goes for a foreigner. At some point you realize that like three different things are called a wicket.
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I should also say thank you to three anonymous referees whose helpful and thoughtful feedback really improved the focus and quality of the paper.
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@DinaPomeranz
If the student is comfortable with this, they are welcome to reach out to me for non-tweetable resources.
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@Simon_Mongey
@ElliotLip
@conlon_chris
@NYUFASEcon
@NYUSternEcon
The best part was that by the end of the course, he was kind of just making up models and solving them on the board, with us pitching in from time to time. Takes guts to do that in front of others and you learn so much about that process.
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Do you really want to arrive at a conclusion that says: "This policy makes people better off because I assumed that I know what people like better than they do". Assuming optimality (even boundedly) results in complex decision problems but avoids this conclusion. (2/2)
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@ElliotLip
@conlon_chris
@NYUFASEcon
@NYUSternEcon
Honestly, Boyan's class was the best class I ever took. Sorry to my advisor, glad he's not on Twitter (please don't snitch).
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If recipients' decisions to work or not work are very responsive, it is preferable to redistribute by subsidizing employment. We've seen this play out in the US through contractions in the welfare state and expansions in the EITC. Is that good? Well...
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Traditionally, public finance has emphasized elasticities when thinking about how to optimally redistribute. A dollar spent on the EITC does not cost the same as a dollar spent on TANF because people will work more/less according to the program's incentives.
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i.e. still much more generous than the baseline, but with strong work incentives at the bottom also. The literature does not agree on employment effects for child skills, so very important to figure this out. Lots more in the paper. Very happy to hear any feedback!
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It's important to deal with this critique so I'll humbly offer a take. You want to do some policy analysis, so you need a model (environment, preferences, technology, etc)... (1/2)
Economist: Workers solve this complex dynamic programming problem with a Lebesgue integral to obtain the reservation wage.
Also economist:
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@glviolante
@ben_moll
@Undercoverhist
Most remarkable thing about this paper: the decision to explicitly *not* use experimental variation for identification. Have always wanted to discuss this with the authors!
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@AnyaMarchenko6
My favorite Pareto efficiency example (that I think is due to Sen) is Nero fiddling on the roof while Rome burns.
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@AllbriteAllday
@OIGInstitute
Check out the Northrup King Building! Full of local artists and vendors. Head to
@haihaimpls
after for a great meal/cocktail. Also check out the back bar
@youngjoni_mn
if you are into that kind of thing.
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@Simon_Mongey
@EDerenoncourt
@leah_boustan
It's minus 10%. The denominator is everything I thought we'd have to figure out. The numerator includes all the new stuff we learned would have to go in the model that we didn't know at first. Minus 10 feels right to me.
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@bencjenkins
I tasted a Feijoa once and peered through the fabric of time itself. Can recommend.
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How does one quantify? The 1990s provide a pretty useful laboratory in which to study the response of single mothers to changes in taxes and welfare, as well as the effect it had on their kids. The paper forms instruments from this variation to identify key model parameters.
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Personally I have often been surprised at how much a model counterfactual can amplify moment uncertainty.
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@ncjms
@kyleal
@ultravomit
I mostly agree. I still maintain the theory that you are so steeped in cringe that you need to be exposed to atomic levels to sense it.
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The standard assumptions of economics have baked-in political content that inoculate policy exercises against paternalism. In some contexts this prevents the tools from working well (mental health another good example). (1/2)
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@agoodmanbacon
I don't know if Marc is on twitter but it is a great paper! A go-to reference for anyone who wants to model the welfare system, on top of everything else.
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Important work from
@dynarski
and others teaches us that information interventions can have big effects on college enrollment. Sergio estimates a dynamic choice model to quantify how uncertainty about ability and returns to college contribute to racial gaps in college completion.
Job market candidate
@sebarrera77
focuses his research on examining the reasons for economic inequality, in particular studying higher education inequalities with his job market paper.
Sergio's advisors are
@M_De_Nardi
and Jeremy Lise.
#EconTwitter
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Mohamed spent 6 years in Australian immigration detention. This course will help him achieve some financial stability and independence, as he tries to start his life over again. Please consider! Thanks and love <3
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@raffaelesaggio
@arindube
@PorzioTommaso
@Simon_Mongey
@SydneeCaldwell
Haha no worries! A good reminder to stop sleeping on the paper and get a new draft out :-)
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"play this", "play that"... we get it dude! You know a lot of cool songs!
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Saif and his wife Sabah are Somali refugees who sought asylum in Australia in 2013. They were illegally detained in immigration detention on Nauru. In 2017, Saif was separated from his wife and newborn child, Saami. For four years, Saami grew up with a father in detention.
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