Victor
@vectornomist
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Associate Econ Prof. Consumer Theory & Measurement, Econometrics, Behavioral Economics. All views are my own.
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Joined August 2013
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🚨🚨 New Working Paper 🚨🚨 Entangled vs. Separable Choice joint with
@KashaevNail
and Martin. 1/n Consider two decision-makers choosing (Frodo and Sam), in separate rooms, from different menus with no communication allowed.
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Behavioral economics is in crisis, grappling not only with replication challenges but mainly due to its reliance on biases over robust foundations. Only a few concepts, like loss aversion, are established, while others, such as choice overload, are not. In this landscape,
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@lslothuus
Canada can have many flaws, but a neighbour once told me: "thanks for coming to Canada, we need people like you" I think that Canada has mostly a healthy attitude towards migration, specially "highly skilled". I have experience racism in the US and Canada but less on the latter
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#EconTwitter
this may be one of the last personal stories in Econ. Again related to publishing in Econ. I decided to share this because I saw a related "academic dilemma". This is about a referee that revealed himself to my co-author and me. It went badly. This was my first paper
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So about Ph.D. Admission. Very hard to get in if you are in the US or a country with links to the US (academically). But what about other countries, like mine in South America, isolated. Well I did a Master in Applied Math, a Master in Development Economics, A Master
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1/n
@LassoGuillermo
@LoroHomero
@ESTEFANIESPIN
Después de casi 10 años volvimos a Quito, Ecuador luego de vivir, estudiar posgrados, y trabajar en EEUU y Canadá. Volvimos con mucha ilusión de compartir con la familia y visitar nuestra ciudad natal, Quito, luego de la pandemi
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My connection with MWG is long... Story time: I studied it the first time in Ecuador in an intermediate Micro 1 undergraduate class!!!! impressive? NO! A irresponsible prof used his notes from a Master in Econ on MWG and I am pretty sure he did not fully understand the content...
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It's January 3rd and Daron has more cites than most of us total haha Our Messi
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For me: very original and insightful, with super clean design. Opens a new literature. Even if you don't fully agree with the interpretations of the findings hehe
@JRehbeck
@KirbyKNielsen
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I have spent most of my academic career thinking about structural modeling, identification, testing, and data. Just repeating "all models are wrong" is not enough anymore. Models in econ have many uses, one of them is to serve as a way to produce some stylized
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Accepted at JPE Micro! Fast and efficient journal fully recommend. Also fun paper to write!
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#EconTwitter
If someone is interested in a GPT of Intermediate Microeconomics with Calculus here you go you need Chatgpt +
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Whatever people think of economist, I am proud that we train students to work in industry (e.g, tech, consulting), government, academia. They learn mathematical modelling, logical thinking, programming and computational tools, data/quant skills, and a unique way to think.
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I formally submitted my grades for my Intermediate Microeconomics at
@WesternU
, I innovated in how to test and teach this class. I created a type of take-home exam called Case studies with calculus: In the times of LLM's we need to highlight extrapolation
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1/ 🥁 Introducing Dynamic Random Utility Model (DRUM) 🎉: a flexible, stochastic & dynamic approach to analyze consumer choice behavior. DRUM allows for time correlation & cross-section heterogeneity in preferences.
#Econtwitter
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I endorse this, as I got my JMP rejected after 4 rounds at ECMA. Maybe that's why I haven't stopped working since
For all scientists nearly missing out on grants/prizes there is hope because "what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger."
Near-misses increase attrition, but near-miss individuals significantly outperform those with narrow wins in the long run.
@bfjo
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I think econ grad students should try to publish during their Ph.D. Not because of the signal, but mainly because you need to learn how your academic life will be. I don't think students imagine how tortuous the process can become, and if you are a good match for academia
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Today last day physically at my office at Western. Lots of thing to do still, grading, finals and so on. But closing that door for the last time was nostalgic for sure. It has been 7 years in London ON, it has been great! But now on to the next adventure to Simon Fraser U.
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About the terms rationality and economics:
Rationality is a loaded term; in economics, we had a working definition of it, essentially saying people are rational if they behave as if (i) maximizing a (ii) stable and (iii) complete (iv) ranking of (v) all alternatives available to
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Before twitter dies, reduced-form models and causal inference models are not model-free. Also, synthetic controls are play-pretend structural models.
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Now thanks to
@jmwooldridge
we are sharing GRE scores to show that you can be less than perfect and still have a shot at a career as an academic. In my case, I wanted to share the story of how I took my GRE. Ecuador was one of the few countries in 2011 that still did only paper
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Roberto Serrano is not on twitter, but I will promote this great note on the disease of our profession Top5itis
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I thought this was a myth, but someone at AA got scared when I was compulsively taking out my laptop every 30 minutes and writing crazy symbols; the flight attendant actually asked to see my screen. It was worthwhile. I had a breakthrough, the paper is coming soon...
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I was asked a great question by my students the other day: What makes a paper a top 5? Answer below: serious or joke answers are acceptable
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@instrumenthull
For me: very original and insightful, with super clean design. Opens a new literature. Even if you don't fully agree with the interpretations of the findings hehe
@JRehbeck
@KirbyKNielsen
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Después de 12 días en Quito, acabamos de ser víctimas de un asalto a mano armada con cuchillos y pistolas por parte de al menos 4 criminales que entraron a Sabai Cervecería de la Whymper (
@sabaibeer
). Cerca de las 7pm de hoy Domingo. No hubo policías, ni guardias, ni ningún tipo
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Victor H. Aguiar, Ph. D. en Economía de Brown University
Profesor Asociado de Economía de la Universidad de Western Ontario, Canada
@TurismoEcuador
@sabaibeer
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Finally in the July issue of the Review of Economic Studies my joint work
@KashaevNail
:
Our replication package here in
The open version in arxiv Revealed Preferences with Measurement Error
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Updating my website today 😁. My paper with
@KashaevNail
"A Random Attention and Utility Model" got accepted at JET!
Thanks to the lead editor and the associate editor a very nice editorial experience.
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Tweet in Spanish: Post sobre Quito: En este paper en el "Journal of Public Economics" uno de los "top field" o mejores journals del su campo, Paul Carillo, Andrea Lopez (ecuatorianos) y Arun Malik, muestran que el Pico y Placa suben el crimen de manera importante, y causal!
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A bit sad that many job market papers and working papers on multiouput firms are not citing our work with Roy Allen and
@KashaevNail
In any case, here we go making people aware through social media. What we do it's very powerful fully nonseparable
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I will finally get my Canadian Passport, such a relief to travel more easily for conferences, seminars and so on. Having an Ecuadorian passport did not let me attend several key conferences in my academic life. Also, this is to say if you want to invite me last minute overseas 😉
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Quito. Vemos con pena que la marca país de
#AllyouneedisEcuador
“All you need is Ecuador” es solo una ficción, mientras no se solucione el problema gigantesco de la seguridad. Nosotros no podemos, con honestidad, recomendar a ningún amigo en el extranjero que visiten nuestro país
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What I worry most about rejections in econ is the low level of attention you get from some referees. Econ is mostly an oral tradition you have to be in the right conferences and in the right "groups". Econ does not read. It's almost impossible to write comprehensive answers
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traditional utility maximization remains predominant in economics, similar to gasoline cars. Models based on inattention are like electric cars - innovative but not yet full replacements.
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Given the current outage of Chagtp, it's time to recognize we do need to know how to program, how to write emails, how to write 5 paragraph essays, and yes we need to check our own grammar, because you never know when the board of your favorite AI assistant will get in K-drama
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Thrilled to return to
@BrownUniversity
and
@BrownEconomics
after several years. The charm of Carrie Tower and Robinson Hall never fades! Excited to present my research on 'Entangled vs. Separable Choice'. Check it out:
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New paper: "A Rationalization of the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference"
joint with Per Hjerstrand and Roberto Serrano.
OK, so how do I get your attention about a classical topic of consumer theory?
#EconTwitter
@Undercoverhist
@SNageebAli
@ben_golub
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4 years! And thus I had my first experience with Econ publishing. Don't be Mr. J. don't reveal yourselves as referees. It's unethical. Also don't spend your last years in the profession trumping the career of a grad student. I abandon that particular research agenda. It's ok, it
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DiD will die out just because at some point gets so messy that it's not as credible as people though, the main appeal of the credibility revolution was simplicity. I know DiD is important just excited to see the natural conclusion of revolutions unraveling
DiD is like the Spiderman movies, just keep making a new one with a different actor
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Roberto Serrano profesor de economía distinguido de Brown Econ (Brown University), está de visita a Ecuador. Una oportunidad imperdible. Él es mi advisor y co-autor. El miércoles 7 está dando un Keynote en USFQ sobre juegos cooperativos. Asistan todos!
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Before twitter dies and econtwitter with it, I wanted to share some thoughts for potential grad students with families. Due to personal reasons, I returned to check the housing and rental markets in Canada and the US. It's crazy expensive out there. It has always been hard to be
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This is a cool paper, sure! but remember that being "(U)nbiased" sometimes is not important, in fact, many estimators we use are biased. The James-Stein estimator is a simple example that beats OLS in MSE but is biased! Many models in ML are biased. You get the idea.
The OLS estimator is BUE, on top of being BLUE, under classic Gauss-Markov conditions — check out
@BruceEHansen
’s new amazing
#econometrica
paper. Textbooks require some updating
@jmwooldridge
? Question: how much a BUE can depart from linearity?
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Julia is the language of structural econ, this case macro
MacroModelling.jl by
@kockerols
provides a unified interface for DSGE modeling. Includes dynare.
My fellow macroeconomists: No more excuses to stick to MATLAB.
#juliacon2024
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Warning, the following tweet is a personal experience not a medical opinion. I am the wrong kind of doctor. I have suffered from Vitamin D deficiency for a while now. I have lived in Northamerica for 11 years now, and due to my dark skin I have essentially not absorbed enough Vit
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Happy to see this paper on
@RevEconStud
, it was cool to work my colleague and friend
@KashaevNail
. To the next project!
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La inseguridad actual es demasiado real. Mis familiares viven encerrados en sus ciudadelas, con miedo de salir y disfrutar de la ciudad. No puede haber turismo, reactivación y calidad de vida con la inseguridad de este nivel. Guillermo Lasso y Jorge Yunda, deben hacer una
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Econ refereeing rant: So I was reflecting on how petty some referees can be. Like truly going above and beyond to be negative. And then it hit me, it's the "circle of violence of econ refereeing" (TM). It's a truly sad equilibrium, since everyone ferociously competes for the
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#econtwitter
I was thinking a lot about rationality, again! Most empirical evidence points out that individually we are not rational in the classical sense of the word. Individuals routinely break the consistency conditions implied by utility maximization. However,
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Hate to be that guy but both stata and R are old news. Do Julia :-)
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It's essential to create a program focused on establishing solid facts, drawing from neurobiology, psychology, and marketing. This collaborative effort could lead to a unified behavioral model that aligns with these established facts.
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Looking for a co-author: So my paper in this link, is in need of 1 more co-author, because of work obligations my co-author here cannot keep going, I want to get this on print since I believe the topic is fun/important, but definitely need some support "
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Translation: you need theory, theory is literally extrapolation of data
Cool paper
We have an intuition that "extrapolation" is less reliable than "interpolation", which we might define as, "if it's inside (in the convex hull of) my training data, then it's more reliable"
Well, "interpolation" probabilistically never happens in high dimensions
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#EconTwitter
I am an outsider to the economics of crime, I want to get a reading list to get on the frontier. Any suggestions for good surveys and key new papers, specially with a focus on cities and crime prevention.
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The amazing Tomasz Strzalecki has his book on Stochastic Choice for free at his website, an amazing text for a cool and relevant topic
@mlkovach1
@gereltecon
@JRehbeck
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Thank you so much for the warm welcome
@Sudiptahere
! I'm truly honored and excited to join the Editorial Board of JEBO. It's truly a privilege. Looking forward to contributing and working alongside the talented team! Some of you guys will be getting some early referee invites 😃
Congratulations
@vectornomist
on joining the Editorial Board of Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (JEBO).
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Come join us at
@westernuEcon
. It is a great department with strong support for junior economists. We want a great colleague that wants to do high-quality research. We are open to Development, Metrics, IO
International, Labor, Macro, Micro Theory, Public.
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New WP with Charles Gauthier and
@KashaevNail
Title: Dynamic and Stochastic Rational Behavior.
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I find it incredibly awkward that economist have not fully agreed if we are ordinalist or cardinalist. I know... I know... We should be ordinal! But in practice we aren't look at macro, it's full of cardinal statements. Welfare analysis in many applied fields uses lots of
decreasing marginal utility of money implies that abolishing billionaires is Pareto improving
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What I like about the new generation of theorists is that we are not that happy with the econ theory=fables thing. Even younger and future theorists, in the end theory has to produce applications, or serve to explain behavior. Get your hands dirty! Put your theory to work
Market design is a reminder that theory is more than fables.
Here is a model of a complex system. If you find a better policy, then fewer people die.
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Don’t be your own QJE
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I have the challenge of teaching intermediate micro for undergraduates this semester (my last at
@WesternU
) seeing the discussion on how to each, well I do not have the answer especially in the times of Chatgpt but I gave it a try: Case studies with calculus! Take a look
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After a long while Per, Roberto and I finished our new version of this paper (link on screenshot).
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, ni nuestra ciudad. Amamos Quito, y por eso nos duele decir esto. Pero es triste ver como la inseguridad se ha salido de las manos de las autoridades. Recuerdo con mucha molestia las tesis de algunos académicos locales acerca ‘de la percepción de la inseguridad.’
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The industrially produced research as produced by Gino, is obviously a ticking bomb. I will always be in favor of boutique research, slower but higher quality. I personally have used RA's sparingly for many reasons but mainly because the depth of the things I do will take ages
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de auxilio mientras nos sometían con amenazas, nos encañonaban, nos insultaban y nosotros teníamos temor por nuestras vidas. Entregamos nuestras pertenencias para evitar daños físicos, pero ha sido una experiencia muy traumatizante. El asalto fue a todos los clientes del
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establecimiento
@sabaibeer
. Frente a nosotros había unas mujeres extranjeras a las cuales les pusieron las armas en su cabeza y terminaron en llanto luego del asalto.
Antes de migrar a Norteamérica vivimos en Ecuador por casi 30 años y nunca nos había pasado algo similar en
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Oded is one of the great social scientist of our time. His work on the journey of humanity is one of the deepest analysis of history, wealth and inequality.
Delighted to hear about the fundamental forces triggering the process of development and inequality. Oded Galor
@GalorOded
presenting at the departmental seminar at Pompeu Fabra
#econtwitter
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OK, so here is my summary, not a joke: 1. I believe "most" of the papers published in the "top 5" are well executed, and well-written. 2. I also think "most" of the papers in "top 5" do at least something very well. Maybe it's a new model that explains an open puzzle, or a piece
I was asked a great question by my students the other day: What makes a paper a top 5? Answer below: serious or joke answers are acceptable
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A new short paper with Roberto: Slutsky Matrix Symmetry: A New Behavioral Condition. We make connections with the literature on price inattention and departures from symmetric behavior in the substitution patterns of consumption
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reforma real para mejorar la seguridad ciudadana, para que no sea un riesgo mortal salir a comer algo con amigos un domingo por la tarde, algo que hemos hecho por 10 años en diferentes ciudades en el mundo y que no es posible para los Quiteños.
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grades sent! it's always great to teach Micro 1 for grad students. Since Roberto Serrano taught Micro 1 at
@BrownEconomics
I just love this topic. Hopefully, my students got bit by the micro bug as well.
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#EconTwitter
is obviously taking a hit, I think Mastodon by design is way more clubby. I will remain here as the whole point of joining Twitter was to break the power of clubs in econ. As a pragmatist, I encourage students and professor out-of-the-club to join mastodon as well
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🚨🚨 Working Paper: "A Rationalization of the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference" 🚨🚨
1/n Short thread: We finally have a new version of our paper with Per Hjertstrand and Roberto Serrano after a year with several Covid-19 related delays.
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Language I dislike: Stata
Language I begrudgingly respect: Fortran
Language I think is overrated: Python
Language I think is underrated: Julia
Language I like: R
Language I love: Julia
Language I dream of writing in: Fortran
Language I dislike: JavaScript
Language I begrudgingly respect: Julia
Language I think is overrated: Python
Language I think is underrated: Fortran
Language I like: C++
Language I love: Fortran
Language I dream of writing in: ASM
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We need this is micro theory
The Fields medalist Terence Tao has championed the use of computerized proof verification tools, including the computer language called Lean. Tao recently led a collaborative effort to formalize a combinatorics proof with Lean. It took just three weeks.
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2023 status symbols for theorists in economics
• <15% time on wolfram Mathematica getting counterexamples
• Owns a blackboard with Japanese chalk
• Constructive proof instead of proof by contradiction
• Relationship with the Bayesian Persuasion crowd
• Fancy LaTeX template
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Happy about our conditional acceptance at Journal of Econometrics for PPPP (Prices, Profits, Proxies, and Production) joint with Roy Allen and Nail Kashaev. This paper is our first triple collaboration.
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I don't mean to brag (lie) but I completed the fastest report of my life. 1 hour. Yes, it was a revision. Yes, it was a short paper. Yes, it is exactly one of my fields of expertise. Yes, the author did an amazing job. Yes, I am avoiding procrastination.
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Finally in print "Random Utility and Limited Consideration"
@KashaevNail
, Majo Boccardi, Jeongbin Kim and I are happy. Nice typesetting
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In 20 years we will say the same of diffs-in-diffs 😬
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Although traditional in approach, this is necessary to address the fundamental flaws in our current economic models and to identify a viable alternative as the very heart of our economic analysis.
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Given that this got some traction, I am uploading as well the lyx, .tex and mathematica source files.
Each case study is based on a paper, midterm 1. is Aguiar and Hurst price search solving the retirement consumption puzzle,
I formally submitted my grades for my Intermediate Microeconomics at
@WesternU
, I innovated in how to test and teach this class. I created a type of take-home exam called Case studies with calculus: In the times of LLM's we need to highlight extrapolation
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🥣🥣New(ish) cereal paper: 🥣🥣 Not really, but here we go, our stab (joint with
@KashaevNail
) to the Ready-to-Eat cereal market. Caveats we are not IO we are discrete choice researchers, so this is focused on modeling that consumer side instead of the market structure. However,
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What's the equivalent of superconductivity at room temperature in econ?
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opposed to me. The Barcelona School of Economics, LSE, and CEMFI masters usually are use as trampolines for people in my country to get into top programs in the world. No american student was better prepared than the foreign ones with multiple master and professional experience
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Daron is a giant on social science, but one has to be careful. This argument is close to Foucault's. Social science as any other science has to do with constancies, and regularities of individual and collective human behavior. Power is an important part to understand collective
“Not much in social science makes sense except in light of power struggle … Brandeis was very much about this, but the consumer welfare standard ignored it.”
In conversation with
@linakhanFTC
,
@DAcemogluMIT
says you can't understand the economy without accounting for power.👇🧵
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regressions are powerful to establish facts but we need theory to make sense of these facts
Writing a review and I just wrote: "People used to do theory. Now they just do regressions."
I will delete my snark before submitting. But damn I am tired of vapid empirical papers that argue some neglected thing will transform our understanding and then ***regressions***
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Congrats to my colleague Xiaoting Sun and her coauthors in this amazing paper! Must-read for everyone but in particular grad students. The future of econ is structural!
What can we learn about agent preferences from data only on who matches with whom? A study by
@YingHuaHe
@SSinhaEcon
& Xiaoting Sun answers this question in a two-sided matching setting (eg. college admissions) and provides a practical estimation method
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