Chris Conlon
@conlon_chris
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IO Economist @NYUSternEcon .
Manhattan, NY
Joined October 2011
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I think the best thing you can say about this bill is that it is a "messaging bill" that nobody intends to pass. I worry that the "message" being sent is: "We have failed to talk to a single serious economist". 7/8
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New legislation on "price gouging" just dropped
#econtwitter
. Summary: fight inflation by making price increases illegal (Bonus: implement a strong Robinson-Patman like ban on price discrimination by large firms). 1/8
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I'd like to thank the academy,
@PMoserEcon
@luismbcabral
and my wonderful colleagues at
@NYUSternEcon
, my coauthors
@MSinkinson
@nirupama_rao
@jeff_gortmaker
and those not on twitter (Julie Mortimer, Matt Bacukus and Yinan Wang) and my mentors
@steventberry
and
@PhilHaile
.
Yesterday was a great day because my
@NYUSternEcon
colleague
@conlon_chris
was promoted to tenure. Psyched for the department, school and for our students at Stern &
@NYUFASEcon
. So happy to have Chris around!
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#econtwitter
should take a look at the (heavily redacted)
@FTC
Amazon complaint that came out recently.
Given past experience, this case will likely not be resolved for 3-20 years.
Not everything is visible -- but I'll give my best guesses below.. 1/
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This is circulating again... it is important to point out that the topline number is nonsense. Based on survey data, if you drink more than TEN drinks per week you are definitely in the top 10%. The problem is we can't find about half of alcohol consumption in surveys. 1/6
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Tip for reporters. If someone says "Profit share was 50% of price increases 2023", ask them what the labor share was.
Answer: 93%
This is not because workers caused inflation, it is because this whole exercise is nonsense.
1/3
Corporate profits rose 5x faster than inflation from 2020 to 2022 and drove over half of inflation for most of 2023. We need to fight back against big corporations’ price gouging and deceptive tactics, so we can lower costs for American families. I’m in that fight all the way.
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What if there were a whole field of economics dedicated to studying market power? Too bad they gave it a non obvious name like “Industrial Organization”
He says: “No, it’s not that… If market power is such a big issue, why is no American economist working on it, and only Europeans with funny names such as Philippon, Zingales, Marinescu, De Loecker,…?”
@ThomasPHI2
@zingales
@mioana
3/
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If govt wants academics to do more practical work:
(a) improve the quality and availability of data. Nobody can provide real-time analysis of data that are released with a 2-5 year lag.
(b) increase social science funding at NSF to provide public goods not just QJE's. 1/4
As he says, academia’s very heavy emphasis on novelty incentivizes people to do the kind of work that’s not so useful to policymakers who mostly need to get the basics right — better data, a clearer sense of the overall state of the literature.
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Maybe you heard that "corporate profits are responsible for 60% of inflation".
Turns out if you re-did that analysis using current data you would get a very different number.
Corp profits have been in decline for three quarters while prices (and wages) continue to grow.
The idea that corporate profits could be driving inflation was once considered a "fringe theory."
Why? Because it undermined those with power.
But people are starting to learn the truth — and they're fed up.
The time to tackle corporate price-gouging is now.
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Such sloppy drafting and terrible implications. Why raise wages if you have to go to court (and presumed guilty) to defend price increases? Public firms have to post pricing strategies --> Great for private equity. Lots of firms charge different prices to different customers. 8/8
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In the press release,
@SenWarren
name checks Kroger. It turns out Kroger's COGS are actually growing faster than revenue, and margins are declining. Maybe this was meant to be more "impressionistic" than factual? 5/8
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A quick thread about current issues around markups. Many people have seen this figure, but there is still a lot of discussion around what it "means". Estimated markups appear to be rising but we aren't really sure why. 1/
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We will call today the official launch of pyBLP, our python package for differentiated products demand estimation. First, the accompanying paper we ask people to cite (with some new result re: instruments, FE, and best practices). 1/3.
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My paper on Common Ownership in American with Matt Backus and Mike Sinkinson was recently accepted at AEJ:Micro. We ask the simple question: how much common ownership is there in the US economy? how much has that changed? and what drove it? 1/
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You probably heard that "corporate profits caused more than half of inflation". It turns out unless the world ended in 2021 or began last June, that number is bogus.
That doesn't mean people will stop repeating it.
#econtwitter
#greedflation
1/n
Pop quiz for
#greedflation
peeps and
#econtwitter
and
@pomterkins
.
Without looking it up. ..Over the past four quarters for which we have data, what share of price increases were accounted for (not necessarily caused) by higher corporate profits?
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A friendly reminder that the "Chicago School" of antitrust has little to do with economics and was largely associated w/ two legal scholars teaching in law schools in the 1970's. Many core ideas did not survive the game theory revolution of the 1980's.
1/2
They delibered "axioms" true in part, or descriptive of tendencies, but delivered as simplistic "rules" that then did major policy damage. Candidates are the works of Kuznets, Okun, Director & the Chicago school of antitrust, the efficient markets hypothesis and many more..
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Recall the EPI study that said 54% of inflation was driven by corporate profits? New GDP numbers are out for 2022Q1. If you compare 2019Q4 and 2022Q1 it becomes 60% workers, 30% profits. For last 3 quarters profit share is negative !
#econtwitter
1/7
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So we just launched a MS in Quantitative Economics to prepare students for top PhD programs (or similar technically oriented jobs). Applications open now -- classes start in Summer 2022.
BREAKING NEWS!
@NYUFASEcon
and
@NYUSternEcon
to launch a new MS in Quantitative Economics. See
🧵
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In other news,
@jeff_gortmaker
and I just had our paper "Best Practices for Demand Estimation with PyBLP" accepted at RAND this week. It is probably worth a read, even if you've estimated multi-product demand before. 1/4
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We finally have a public version of our "Micro PyBLP" paper. TLDR: use micro data if you can!
Highlights:
a. How to select and form micro-moments (including "optimal" variety)
b. How to avoid "incompatible" micro moments
c. How to calculate correct weighting matrices + inference
A framework for incorporating many types of micro data, from summary statistics to full surveys of selected consumers, into Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995)-style estimates of differentiated products demand systems, from
@conlon_chris
and
@jeff_gortmaker
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Hey
#econtwitter
, not sure how many use the Kilts/Nielsen data but we've put together a Python package for reading and filtering Kilts data at blistering speed. It is based on the latest version 1/3
@ApacheArrow
.
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The first question you should ask when you see something like this is: "If increasing interest rates work by cooling demand, how much of inflation is caused by demand?". If "demand" is not an option, you should not pass Go and proceed directly to causality jail. 1/2
#econtwitter
Rising corporate profits were the largest contributor to Europe’s inflation over the past two years as companies increased prices by more than the spiking costs of imported energy.
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So Julie Mortimer and I are finally finished(!) with our paper on Efficiency and Foreclosure Effects of Vertical Rebates for
@JPolEcon
. This paper is about understanding HOW firms use exclusionary contracts to exclude superior rival products 1/
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Thanks to
@DarianWoods
for having me on to speak about my work with
@NateHMiller
@TsolmonOtgon1
and Yi Yao.
I also discussed the recent inflationary episode from the perspective of an empirical MICRO economist who studies how firms compete and set prices 1/
Corporate greed isn't responsible for the recent inflation wave.
That's what
@conlon_chris
,
@NateHMiller
,
@TsolmonOtgon1
and Yi Yao found when looking at over 6,000 companies from 2018 to 2022.
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What does the evidence say?
@jimtankersley
@jeannasmialek
Net Inc/Rev (Net Margins) for largest grocery sellers Q2 2024:
Wal-Mart3.16%
Costco2.87%
Target3.84%
Kroger1.44%
Albertsons1.64%
Ahold Delhaize2.06%
for ref: McDonads 30%+
Where did all the excess profit go? 1/
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This is a neat result in
@JPubEcon
(and I don't think Adam Dearing is on twitter). The paper asks the question: What does a single change in the tax rate allow us to learn about Supply & Demand in a multi-product oligopoly setting? 1/4
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If Disney raises prices (of tickets, Disney+, whatever) an amount FTC deems "unconscionable" --> get fined 5% of last years total revenue from the ENTIRE FIRM. Maybe they get fined anyway just for having "unfair leverage". Fines aren't even linked to the harms/overcharges. 6/8
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Thinking about a "pre-doc" next year? How about living in NYC?
Come to
@NYUSternEcon
and work with me
@giulia_bran
@MJ_Dickstein
and
@ptscott
.
We are a lively group of IO economists and can promise you lots of one on one time.
@econ_ra
#predoc
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How large is an "unconscionable" price increase? The FTC would get to decide that based on the avg price over the last 120 days. Only allowable defense would be to show price increases were driven by "costs outside your control" 2/8
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Also requires firms must justify changes in prices and pricing strategies in their quarterly SEC filings, and effectively commit in advance to public pricing strategies. (Others say *ahem* these kinds of regs are great at facilitating collusion). 4/8
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Exciting news! Tagging
@MSinkinson
and Matt Backus (too many Matt's on twitter already) here. Here is the thread describing the paper (from when it was accepted in 2020).
Congratulations to Chris Conlon
@conlon_chris
and his coauthors on their receipt of the AEJ Best Paper Award for their 2021 paper on common ownership!
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Again -- can everyone please stop saying "corporate profits explain 54% of inflation". The world didn't end in mid 2021. Using the same method (and current data) the profit share is no more than 1/3. Profits have been declining for past 6 months while inflation persists.
Repeat after me: Wages aren’t pushing up prices. Corporate profits are pushing up prices.
Instead of relying on the Fed to raise interest rates, which could slow the economy toward a recession, Congress and President Biden should be taking aim at corporate price gouging.
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Hey
#econtwitter
@jeff_gortmaker
and I have a new version of our Best Practices for Demand Estimation with PyBLP paper. as well as a new update (version 0.9: ). Things are getting dangerously close to version 1.0!
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I have some idea how causation works and... I am fairly confident that testifying on behalf of Google in 2023 did not cause Gentzkow to go back in time nine years and write an AEA P&P in 2014.
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The problem with surveys of alcohol consumption (like NESARC) is that when we take people at their word -- we're missing about 50% of alcohol sales. Some combination of: poured down the drain, not understanding serving sizes, and not truthful reporting. 3/6
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So
@nirupama_rao
and I are finally in print. We look at why alcohol taxes are often "overshifted" so that $1 of tax leads to >$1 of price increase. Originally we thought PTR > 1 was an artifact of limited data from some weird tax increases in the 90's (Alaska?) ... 1/9
The November 2020 issue of AEJ: Economic Policy (12, 4) is now available online at .
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I just canceled my Spotify account and switched to Apple Music. This is definitely, 100% political commentary, unrelated to the 6 month free trial for getting a new iPad.
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Replicating the same (flawed) accounting exercise using the US (BEA) data shows the opposite. Since 2022, profit share in US is 5% instead of 45% in the EU, while labor share is > 100% in last three quarters. (note: this does not mean workers are greedy!) 2/2
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I don't know how you write an IO paper if you've never spoken to anyone in the industry you're studying. This is the 2nd thing you tell a student when they pitch you a project: "let's call someone in the industry -- tell them your idea -- and see if they think it is crazy".
Has anyone seen examples of RD/DD/IV studies that test identifying assumpt w both usual stat tests AND qualitatively--interviewing ppl familiar w the policy/prog? Latter seems useful & we're trying it, but looking for others
@imbernomics
@causalinf
@KiraboJackson
#EconTwitter
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@paulgp
All of my slides are here. I teach (2nd semester) to non-econ PhD's at Stern. I cover nonlinear models, a bunch of ML as nonparametrics, and then more conventional treatment effects. I teach almost zero asymptotic theory and prove very little.
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We don't really have many successful open-source "projects" in Economics. (ie: teams of people not-necessarily co-authors working to build common infrastructure). Maybe QuantEcon/Dynare are examples -not a coincidence that central bankers can be paid to do much of the work. 1/4
A friend of mine in a health policy field tells me that they have "coding" coauthors sometimes. When I see the amount of coding work for method papers (e.g. DiD stuff by
@pedrohcgs
and
@borusyak
), I often wonder why we don't see that form of specialization in econ. 1/
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Something IO folks should keep in mind!
@eizenb_alon
and I are editing a special issue of IJIO on "Market Power and the Macroeconomy"
See the details below
1/2
@conlon_chris
and I are jointly editing a Special Issue of IJIO titled "Market power and the macroeconomy"
Recent trends such as inflation or rising interest rates create a nice laboratory to study how the macro environment shapes firms' strategy and competitive conduct.
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This is a weird way to frame: "firm tries to price discriminate across retail channels -- and learns about arbitrage the hard way".
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@petersgoodman
Hey Peter. I am at a conference with roughly 300 economists whose primary area of research is studying market power. In your job as global economics correspondent at
@nytimes
how many of these people have you interviewed ?
Wow. This blew up! 100’s of economists from all over the world are meeting and presenting research on firms and competition. Most aren’t on twitter but if you are a journalist or policymaker maybe see what economists in this space actually do.
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Unexpected surprise for our group at NYU Stern Economics. We are arriving to the market late, but don't forget about us.
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@ashdgandhi
But they had to suffer through those years of residency earning only *checks notes* well above the median income.
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Text suggests firms can commit "price gouging" without raising prices. Firms have "unfair leverage" if they have >$1B in revenues, charge different prices or offer different terms to different customers, and CAN foreclose or restrict access to products. Unclear they have to DO a
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In a world filled with bad takes on economics and antitrust, Noah manages to come up with the literal opposite of the what’s actually happened.
Economists have been leading the charge in the new antitrust movement.
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Cool! Wasn't anticipating such a quick turnaround! You can see my previous thread here:
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "Common Ownership in America: 1980–2017" by Matthew Backus, Christopher Conlon, and Michael Sinkinson.
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Ok for those of you who have not been paying attention. There are 5 (actually 6) bills working their way through the House -- who knows what will happen in the Senate. Here is the quick summary. My take in brackets []
#EconTwitter
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It was embarrassing when people were promoting fringe theories like "greedflation" 2021 -- but predictions are tough.
Taking a victory lap on this in 2023 is a bit like the band on the Titanic trying to play from the bottom of the ocean.
The idea that corporate thirst for profits drives up inflation, aka "greedflation," is now being taken more seriously by economists, policymakers and the business press.
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@Esther_de_Lange
@KrelinaJan
@EPPGroup
Of the 8 most recent directors of the Bureau of Economics for the US Federal Trade Commission the birthplaces include:
Israel, China, Canda, UK (x 2), and USA (x 3).
So yes, as a factual matter you are completely wrong. Perhaps you should worry more about attracting top talent?
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.
@JStein_WaPo
Why are prices up? "Profiteering"? What is "profiteering"? Raising prices. This doesn't provide an explanation --just a synonym. It isn't that Econs don't think "firms aren't greedy". It's that we thought they were just as greedy before! 1/4
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What if -- and I'm just spitballing here -- corporations hired graduates to work for them in exchange for money?
.
@profgalloway
thinks that corporations should have to pay to get access to the incredible human capital that our universities produce – and that students should be the ones to reap these benefits.
Listen to Pivot:
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Looks like the thing that was transitory was the rise in corporate profits?
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Ok
#econtwitter
, though I am late to this debate..here is some hard evidence on
#R
vs
#Stata
. (I claim neutrality as
#python
user). It happens we re-ran stuff in R because Stata was miserably slow (10x) on our "medium" data with lots of FE.
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Interest rates > 0.
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Most empirical IO is tightly connected to theory. But it is a huge advantage to have Boyan Jovanovic covering IO theory in depth at
@NYUFASEcon
. One more reason to do a PhD at
@NYUSternEcon
.
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Congrats everyone. We did it. Greed has been defeated. All of those Robert Reich tweets must have paid off.
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. 4Q earnings season is proving to be even worse than feared, especially for margins, as cost growth is rising faster than sales growth for ~80% of S&P 500 industry groups.” [Huberty]
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Getting this right is important because the eye-popping numbers (10% of people drinking 10+ drinks per day) make people who are drinking 10+ drinks per week think they don't have a problem. (They do!) 6/6
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I view the obsession with the Chicago school in antitrust circles as more of an indictment of the poor state of instruction in law schools than anything else.
How are people still hung up on stuff from like 50 years ago that mostly never got taught in Econ departments?
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@BrianCAlbrecht
This is my -- if you do this -- you have to tell people you didn't take my course --slide.
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National accounts data can't tell us whether inflation was caused by demand or supply.
Increased demand tends to increase both prices and profits.
Increased materials costs (ie: supply shocks) don't even show up in the table above because it is already "value-added".
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If only there were a way to model automobile prices in market equilibrium... someone should really get on that.
@mattyglesias
Would be fun to model the downstream effects of a warehouse with 10,000 brand new Porsches suddenly coming into existence.
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Wow. This blew up! 100’s of economists from all over the world are meeting and presenting research on firms and competition. Most aren’t on twitter but if you are a journalist or policymaker maybe see what economists in this space actually do.
New legislation on "price gouging" just dropped
#econtwitter
. Summary: fight inflation by making price increases illegal (Bonus: implement a strong Robinson-Patman like ban on price discrimination by large firms). 1/8
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Tell me you've never read an Econ text without telling me you've never read an Econ text.
I'll go first:
this is an extraordinary cycle even based on orthodox econ texts that assume perfect competition. the consumer is absorbing nearly* all aggregate price hikes. corporations collectively* have seen very little hit at all. to the extent there has been a k-shaped recovery: that's it
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In the end Chair Powell and the Biden administration ignored the greedflation camp -- we got 11 rate hikes.
Unemployment is 3.7%, Inflation is 3.4%, Real wages are up.
The remaining mystery is why the conventional wisdom worked better than expected. (at least in the US)
10/
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Our first paper on common ownership is now available
When competing firms possess overlapping sets of investors, maximizing shareholder value may provide incentives that distort competitive behavior, from Matthew Backus,
@conlon_chris
, and
@MSinkinson
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The usual caveat applies -- this is just an accounting identity -- definitely wasn't causal when profits were rising -- definitely isn't causal now that profits are falling.
This tells us nothing about causes or economic drivers -- just where money ends up.
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Ok
#econtwitter
, and
#iotwitter
, I have finally found the worst intellectual history of IO.
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My second comment (w Julie Mortimer) is that analysis of horizontal mergers should focus on measuring substitution between the merging parties. This was the direction of the 2010 HMG's and any new revisions would head in this direction 1/6
#econtwitter
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Big news!
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I am excited to be going this year!
Also excited because I am not sure what I’m going to talk about yet…
📣 CALL FOR PAPERS 📣
Join us 14-15 November 2024 in Zurich for the 3rd
@econ_uzh
Market Power Workshop!
With Chris Conlon (
@conlon_chris
) we have an amazing keynote speaker
For more information:
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People always ask why I think restricting competition is a bad way to address externalities. This is why:
Using market power to address negative externalities is much less effective than simple tax instruments, which could reduce drinking by 9% and increase consumer surplus, from
@conlon_chris
and
@nirupama_rao
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Ok
#econtwitter
, a major update to my paper on Diversion Ratios with Julie Mortimer. But what is a diversion ratio? (dQ_k/dP_j over dQ_j/dP_j ). Raise the price of good j, people leave, measure how many switch to k. 1/11
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If you believe this is what economists think, you've likely never actually spoken to one.
If you believe in "basic, value-neutral economics," you are always ready to argue:
1. Prescription drug prices are actually too low
2. Wages (for those outside the c-suite) are too high
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One approach is to just scale everyone by 2-3x to match the production totals (that's how they get 70 drinks per week!). Of course, almost nobody actually reported drinking that much! In terms of what people admit to -- 10 drinks per week puts you in the top 5% of drinkers! 5/6
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I am yet to see a serious economic analysis which suggests that using data to decide which markets to enter represents an anticompetitive harm. That people are worried about anticompetitive ENTRY is a sign IO economists have failed at explaining the very basics to lawyers.
We reached the preliminary conclusion that
@amazon
illegally has abused its dominant position as a marketplace service provider in DE & FR.
@amazon
may have used sensitive data big scale to compete against smaller retailers. Now for
@amazon
to respond.
@EU_Competition
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That famous -- sort x and y independently before running your regression trick -- in the wild.
The state of Georgia made it look like its covid cases were going down ***by putting the dates out of order on its chart*** May 5 was followed by April 25, then back to May again, whatever made it look like a downslope.
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Empirically speaking the most profitable tech innovation in the past decade is probably AirPods.
Viewed cynically, the most profitable tech innovation of the last decade has probably been the various investments in disabling consumer "switching," the traditional mechanism that limits monopoly, by the advanced development of positive & negative switching costs
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Price-concentration regressions are the great zombie idea in IO-- each time we think they're finished -- they rise from the dead. Nice to see
@NateHMiller
and others (including nearly every living DOJ/FTC chief econ) showing us why they often lead to spurious conclusions. 1/2
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The bad news is that this guy has a PhD from MIT. The good news is that they've probably updated the syllabi since the 1970's.
@IvanWerning
In Opinion
“We are entering a new epoch of crisis, a slow-motion tidal wave of risks that will wash over our economy in the next decades — namely climate change, demographics, deglobalization and artificial intelligence,” Richard Bookstaber writes.
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The journal tweeted this out sooner than I expected (sorry
#econtwitter
). Here is my paper with
@nirupama_rao
. We looked at the phenomenon of "overshifting" in excise taxes on alcohol where a $1 tax increase is met with a price increase of $1.50 or more. 1/8
Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Discrete Prices and the Incidence and Efficiency of Excise Taxes" by Christopher T. Conlon and Nirupama L. Rao.
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In case you're wondering what the "Other Costs" are that are down 36%, those are mostly interest payments for current production. (also to capital)
Meanwhile, long-term capital investments come out of profit share! (But after we calculate "profits").
3/3
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For a series where "economists are rethinking the basics" this is relatively short on actual economists and provides the same lazy frame of "Neo-Brandeisians" vs. Chicago School. It manages to replay all of the greatest hits 1/5
#econtwitter
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What if some day we had a republican president who instructed the DOJ to block a media merger because he didn’t like what people said about him on CNN?
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Two out of three is pretty good for
@NYUFASEcon
@NYUSternEcon
.
Great job
@pierrebodere
and
@elliott_jt
!!
(
@YunanJi
also has a very nice paper even though she didn’t go to NYU).
EARIE bestows 3 best papers prizes - YEEA, presented by authors (& all co-authors) under age of 35 & less than 5 years after their PhD defense, during its annual conference 2023 awards given to
@elliott_jt
@pierrebodere
@YunanJi
. Congrats to all three
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Be a full-time pre-doctoral research fellow at NYU Stern with me,
@MJ_Dickstein
,
@mahersaid
, and Paul Scott. We span industrial organization from theory to empirical work and applications include: retail, financial markets, healthcare, and agriculture.
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53
If you're looking for something to do at 10:15am tomorrow come see me and
@NateHMiller
talk about rising markups and rising prices.
#econtwitter
#assa2023
.
(3/7) On Friday 6th at 10:15AM we have an
#AEA2023
session on
"𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐄𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐌&𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲"
featuring Ginger Jin (chair),
@NateHMiller
,
@conlon_chris
,
@florianederer
, Zhaoqi Cheng, John Asker, Nancy Rose,
@hyokangs
& Jan De Loecker
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5
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54
Brought to you by the same folks whose response to Amazon’s entry in book selling was to ban free shipping!
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7
53
This is more complicated than
@TomValletti
and
@martincschmalz
make out. Open Markets (Tom is on the board) and where Lina Khan (and other "anti-monopoly" crusaders) worked receives substantial funding from Omidyar (largest shareholder in eBay/PayPal) 1/6
7
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52
I was wondering what the worst possible take on the current situation could be -- and boy have I found a winner
#econtwitter
.
5
10
53
.
@jan_eeckhout
asks "If efficiencies are overstated, why not ban all mergers?"
Some data are helpful here. In 2021, DOJ/FTC investigated 65/7002 HSR filings for mergers in 2021 and only challenged 32. (I'll bet 32 is too few but 7002 is too many).
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